Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 27, 2025, the main contract of jujube futures, CJ2601, continued last week's downward trend, closing at 10,390 yuan/ton, a drop of 5.20%, with a trading volume of 377,382 lots and an open interest of 185,516, a daily reduction of 2,314 [1]. - With the early jujube harvest and the opening price in line with expectations, the phased positive factors are exhausted. Coupled with obvious capital disturbances, the market breaks through the downward trend, and the market bearish sentiment is strong [5]. - Looking ahead, as the new - season jujubes gradually increase in volume and the old - season high inventory weighs on the market, and there is no obvious bright spot in demand, the futures price fluctuates downward rapidly. The current futures price basically corresponds to the lower edge of the new - season mainstream price of 6.5 - 8 yuan/ton, and there may be certain support around 10,000 - 10,300 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply Pressure - In the new season, affected by the solar terms, the jujube harvest time is earlier than last year. The overall mainstream price of new - season jujubes is 6.50 - 8.00 yuan/kg, significantly higher than that of the same - grade old jujubes, and the market acceptance of new jujubes is limited [2]. - The old - season inventory is high. The physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9,103 tons, an increase of 94 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.04% and a year - on - year increase of 109.22%. The steel union predicts that the old - season social inventory is estimated to be 30 - 350,000 tons, which can make up for the expected reduction in the new - season output [2]. Weak Demand and Sentiment - In the main sales areas such as Hebei Cuierzhuang and Guangzhou Ruyifang, the arrival volume is average, about 3 - 4 vehicles per day, and the morning market trading volume is about 1 - 2 vehicles. The downstream consumption is cautious, mainly purchasing on demand, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average [3]. - Previously, due to the uncertainty of the new - season output, the futures price fluctuated sharply. Now, the expected reduction in production has been basically reflected in the price. With the early harvest and the opening price in line with expectations, the phased positive factors are exhausted. Coupled with obvious capital disturbances, the market breaks through the downward trend, and the market bearish sentiment is strong [5].

Core Viewpoint - The red date futures market is experiencing an upward trend, with current prices and production conditions drawing attention for the upcoming season [1] Futures Market Summary - As of June 27, the closing price for the red date 2509 contract is 9,620 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 285 yuan/ton, or 3.05% [1] - The red date 2509 contract has shown a continuous rebound over the past four weeks since early June, despite entering the off-season [1] Spot Market Summary - The purchase price for Xinjiang gray dates for the 2024 production season ranges from 4.50 to 5.50 yuan/kg, with an average price of 5.33 yuan/kg [1] - The spot price for Hebei first-grade gray dates is 8,350 yuan/ton, up by 50 yuan/ton, while the spot basis CJ09 is down by 235 [1] - The physical inventory in Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market is 10,688 tons, an increase of 8 tons from the previous week [1] Production Conditions Summary - The main production areas in Xinjiang are experiencing temperatures between 20 to 38 degrees Celsius, with high temperatures and wind affecting the first round of flowering and fruit setting [1] - Concerns are raised regarding the second round of fruit setting and weather conditions, with clarity expected in mid to late July [1] - The 2024 production season is anticipated to have a large yield, but there are concerns about the health of the date trees, which may lead to increased risks in new season growth [1] Market Dynamics Summary - The market is currently in a traditional off-season with high total inventory levels, leading to weak demand for supplementary products [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has lowered the trading margin and price fluctuation limits for red date futures to enhance market activity [1] - The strategy is deemed neutral, with caution advised for bullish positions due to high inventory and seasonal consumption patterns [1]