Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 27, 2025, the main contract of jujube futures, CJ2601, continued last week's downward trend, closing at 10,390 yuan/ton, a drop of 5.20%, with a trading volume of 377,382 lots and an open interest of 185,516, a daily reduction of 2,314 [1]. - With the early jujube harvest and the opening price in line with expectations, the phased positive factors are exhausted. Coupled with obvious capital disturbances, the market breaks through the downward trend, and the market bearish sentiment is strong [5]. - Looking ahead, as the new - season jujubes gradually increase in volume and the old - season high inventory weighs on the market, and there is no obvious bright spot in demand, the futures price fluctuates downward rapidly. The current futures price basically corresponds to the lower edge of the new - season mainstream price of 6.5 - 8 yuan/ton, and there may be certain support around 10,000 - 10,300 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply Pressure - In the new season, affected by the solar terms, the jujube harvest time is earlier than last year. The overall mainstream price of new - season jujubes is 6.50 - 8.00 yuan/kg, significantly higher than that of the same - grade old jujubes, and the market acceptance of new jujubes is limited [2]. - The old - season inventory is high. The physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9,103 tons, an increase of 94 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.04% and a year - on - year increase of 109.22%. The steel union predicts that the old - season social inventory is estimated to be 30 - 350,000 tons, which can make up for the expected reduction in the new - season output [2]. Weak Demand and Sentiment - In the main sales areas such as Hebei Cuierzhuang and Guangzhou Ruyifang, the arrival volume is average, about 3 - 4 vehicles per day, and the morning market trading volume is about 1 - 2 vehicles. The downstream consumption is cautious, mainly purchasing on demand, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average [3]. - Previously, due to the uncertainty of the new - season output, the futures price fluctuated sharply. Now, the expected reduction in production has been basically reflected in the price. With the early harvest and the opening price in line with expectations, the phased positive factors are exhausted. Coupled with obvious capital disturbances, the market breaks through the downward trend, and the market bearish sentiment is strong [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report -受多头平仓和空头加仓影响，红枣期货主力合约CJ2601上午开盘1小时便跌破3%，随后有所回升，截至10月22日下午收盘，收盘价为11265元/吨，跌幅达1.18%，成交量315011手，持仓量187200，日增 -630，多空博弈剧烈，当前开称价符合预期但减产幅度未定，资金扰动下盘面触底反弹 [1] -新季减产已定性但幅度未定，市场对此争议较大，当前盘面价格较符合小减产概率，若最终为大减产，短期盘面存在进一步上涨机会 [3] -当前新季主流价符合预期，河北销区市场货源供应少量，下游采购积极性提高，预计短期内现货价格以稳为主，关注后续下树进度及价格变化 [5][7] -旧季库存较高，去库进程缓慢，潜在压力或在下树后彰显，当前矛盾更聚焦于新季方面 [6] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs New Season's Production Reduction is Qualitatively Determined but the Magnitude is Uncertain -2025年受前年树体营养消耗和关键生长期高温天气影响，产区一茬坐果一般，不过二茬坐果较好，三四茬花存在补量，据Mysteel初步预测，新季产量在56 - 62万吨，较2024年度下降约20 - 25% [3] -市场对减产幅度争议较大，55万吨附近小减产及40万吨左右大减产分歧较盛，当前盘面价格较符合小减产概率，若最终为大减产，短期盘面存在进一步上涨机会 [3] Current New Season's Mainstream Price Meets Expectations -国庆后新季红枣下树在即，新疆主灰枣产区订园进程较快，受积温及节气影响下树时间较去年提前约一周左右 [4] -主流价格参考6.50 - 8.00元/公斤，优质优价，土枣原料价格更高，今年红枣商品率或在80%附近，质量偏好高于去年 [5] Old Season's Inventory is Digested Slowly and Still Under Pressure -近期部分客商积极出售库存货源以回笼资金备战新季收购，随着天气转凉，下游拿货积极性有所提高，市场交易氛围提升 [6] -截至2025年10月16日，36家样本点物理库存约9009吨，较上周减少158吨，环比减少1.72%，同比增加94.58%，样本点库存继续下降但仍处近几年高位水平 [6] -按正常消费水平来看，最终旧季库存约剩30 - 35万吨，当前矛盾更聚焦于新季方面，旧季库的潜在压力或在下树后彰显 [6]