Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [15] Core Insights - There are concerns in the market regarding the demand for soda ash, primarily driven by domestic needs and the impact of the real estate sector. However, the actual situation may differ significantly from these concerns [3][24] - Soda ash has a wide range of end applications, driven by global consumption. It is primarily used in the production of glass, sodium bicarbonate, and detergents, with significant applications in construction materials, photovoltaics, food industry, and daily chemicals [8][27] - Despite a low direct export ratio of about 5%, many downstream consumer products have substantial indirect export exposure, indicating that the actual external demand for soda ash may be higher than perceived [8][29] Summary by Sections Application Perspective - Although the direct export ratio of soda ash is low, many downstream consumer products are heavily oriented towards exports. For instance, automotive glass has an export ratio of about 10%, photovoltaic glass around 15%-20%, and sodium bicarbonate approximately 30% [8][29] Total Demand Perspective - The domestic apparent demand for soda ash is significantly lower than its production value and other bulk chemicals. It is estimated that about 67.0% of soda ash is directly or indirectly exported, with a potential indirect export ratio of around 39.6% to 33.6% when compared to other bulk chemicals like MDI and TDI [9][45] Price Dynamics - Soda ash prices are strongly linked to global markets, with prices generally ranging from 1000 to 2000 RMB per ton. The pricing is influenced by global supply and demand dynamics rather than solely domestic factors [10][53] Impact of Domestic Real Estate - The impact of domestic real estate on soda ash demand is limited, with only about 20% of soda ash consumption being directly tied to real estate construction. The demand from emerging markets and sectors like photovoltaics is expected to offset any declines from the real estate sector [11][58] Investment Recommendation - The report recommends a long-term investment opportunity in the leading natural soda ash company, Boyuan Chemical, which has significant cost advantages and growth potential. The company has a strong dividend payout history and is expected to maintain robust cash flow [12][69][71]