1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the trend and underlying logic of the soda ash market in 2025 and provides theoretical basis and logical support for predicting the trend in 2026. It notes that in 2025, the soda ash market was in a downward trend due to oversupply, weak demand, and high inventory. In 2026, demand is expected to remain stable, while supply may see significant structural changes, and the price will be affected by supply - demand variables, inventory changes, and the influence of futures market capital [2][3][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash 2025 Trend Review and Underlying Logic Analysis - **Overall Trend**: In 2025, the soda ash market showed a downward pattern, with a "down - rebound - down again" cycle. The price dropped from the range of [1400, 1600] yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to around [1150, 1200] yuan/ton by the end of June, then rebounded to 1450 - 1530 yuan/ton in July, and finally fell below 1100 yuan/ton in December [3]. - **Underlying Logic**: The main line of the market was the price's trend - based regression under the background of oversupply. The core pressures were strong supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The temporary rebound was driven by external events and market capital behavior without fundamental support [3]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the Chinese soda ash industry was lower than in 2024 and 2023, but the output was much higher. The weekly output reached a record of 77.74 tons in October 2025. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output was 3646.3 million tons, a 4.6% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [6]. - **Demand**: The demand was weak in 2025, with no significant growth [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soda ash enterprises remained high for most of 2025. By December 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 143.85 million tons, slightly lower than the 145.49 million tons in the same period of 2024 [10]. - **Price**: In the second half of 2025, the prices of light and heavy soda ash in central and eastern China generally remained around 1200 yuan/ton. The actual ex - factory prices were even lower [13]. - **Export**: In 2025, China's net export of soda ash is expected to exceed 200 million tons, reaching about 210 million tons, a significant increase compared to 7.1 million tons in the same period of 2024. The price rebound in July 2025 was mainly due to summer maintenance, glass market drive, and increased exports, but it was short - lived [16]. 3.2 How to Predict the Soda Ash Trend in 2026 - **Data Analysis**: The near - month futures contract 2601 of soda ash was priced around 1100 yuan/ton, indicating that the ex - factory price of heavy soda ash from inland alkali plants was generally around 1150 yuan/ton. The price center of the futures contract has been moving down. Low prices are expected to stimulate exports in the first and second quarters of 2026. In 2025, the soda ash industry was in a general loss, and the new capacity of Boyuan Chemical's second - phase project was not fully released in December 2025. In 2026, there will be few new large - scale production capacities. The demand for heavy soda ash from the float glass and photovoltaic glass industries will change little overall [21][22][23]. - **Driving Forces of Soda Ash Price** - **Supply - Demand Variables and Inventory Changes**: In 2026, the demand for soda ash is expected to remain stable. The demand for light soda ash will have a small increase, and the demand for heavy soda ash will change little. The export volume will remain at a similar level to 2025. The supply side may see structural reduction and high - elasticity supply. The inventory level will remain relatively stable, but attention should be paid to its structural changes [24][25][26]. - **Futures Market Capital**: The capital in the futures market can drive short - term price fluctuations. When there is a rapid price increase without fundamental support, it can be regarded as a potential short - selling opportunity [34][35]. - **Price Outlook** - **Downward Space**: There is still some downward pressure on the soda ash price, but the space is limited. The industry has a low capacity utilization rate, and further price decline will suppress the operating rate and stimulate exports [36][37]. - **Rebound High Point**: The key pressure level for the spot price of soda ash is 1500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level for the futures price is around 1600 yuan/ton. The sustainability of the price above this level depends on the capacity utilization rate [38][39][40]. 3.3 How to Seize Opportunities in the Soda Ash Market in 2026 In 2026, the demand for soda ash will remain relatively stable, while production and inventory may fluctuate. The supply - demand fundamentals are difficult to support price increases. The current price is close to the cost range, and the downward space is limited. Short - selling is not very valuable, and blindly going long is not advisable. The market is more suitable for waiting. If the futures price is pushed up by external factors, a detailed analysis of the driving factors should be conducted, and short - selling operations can be considered after confirming the lack of internal driving forces [41][42].