投资有风险，入市需谨慎 中盛期货 黑色系周度报告 中盛期货 20260109 石磊 从业资格证号：F0270570 投资咨询证号：Z0011147 时卓然 研究助理 从业资格证号：F03142612 报告仅供参考 不作入市依据 中盛期货 螺纹钢高炉利润 1月8日，螺纹钢高炉利润报于68元/吨。 黑色系一周行情回顾 品种 合约 期货主力合约收盘价格 现货价格 基差（未折算） 2025/12/31 2026/1/9 变动 涨跌幅（%） 螺纹钢 RB2605 3122 3144 22 1 3290 146 热卷 HC2605 3270 3294 24 1 3270 -24 铁矿石 I2605 790 815 25 3 837 23 焦炭 J2605 1693 1748 55 3 1570 -178 焦煤 JM2605 1115 1196 81 7 1340 145 玻璃 FG605 1087 1144 57 5 1170 26 纯碱 SA605 1209 1228 19 2 1239 11 注： 1、基差=现货-期货，本表暂未将现货价格与期货合约基准交割品进行折算。基差数据仅供参考，不作套利依据。 报告仅供参考 不 ...

黑色产业链日报 2026/01/09 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-09 钢材供强需弱，累库趋势显现 玻璃纯碱：供应扰动影响，玻碱走势分化 市场分析 玻璃方面，昨日玻璃盘面震荡上涨，现货方面，部分厂家存在涨价行为，期现商逐步拿货入场，短期对于价格有 所支撑。据隆众数据显示：本周浮法玻璃日融15.16万吨，环比减少0.17%，厂家库存5551.8万重箱，环比减少2.37%。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾依旧较大，虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修，但是相较刚需下降速度，减产力度仍显 不足。伴随期现商采购，库存压力有所缓解，市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期，持续关注玻璃冷修进展。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱盘面震荡下跌，现货方面，下游刚需采购有限。据隆众数据显示：本周纯碱产量75.36万吨， 环比增加8.11%；库存157.27万吨，环比增加4.26%。 供需与逻辑：目前纯碱供需矛盾有所增加，供给环比回升，伴随需求转弱，库存明显增长。考虑到纯碱后期仍有 新增项目陆续释放产能，同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期，仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润，避免再度陷入供需失衡 局面。短期在宏观情绪带动下，纯碱投机性需求提升，后期持续关注浮法玻璃产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-01-09 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3168 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 19 元/吨（-0.59%）。当日注册仓单 55633 吨, 环比减少 1211 吨。主力合约持仓量为 178.18 万手，环比增加 40419 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比增加 30/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3317 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 15 元/吨（-0.45%）。 当日注册仓单 108701 吨, 环比增加 4706 吨。主力合约持仓量 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-01-09 基本⾯乏善可陈，盘⾯冲⾼回落 淡季需求季节性⾛弱，随着钢⼚逐步复产，钢材端累库压⼒渐显，基 本⾯⽭盾开始逐步积累。铁⽔复产和节前补库预期⽀撑铁矿价格，但 ⾼库存限制上⽅空间。焦煤供给端预期仍有反复，冬储⽀撑有限，盘 ⾯冲⾼回落。玻璃纯碱供需过剩继续压制盘⾯价格。 淡季需求季节性走弱，随着钢厂逐步复产，钢材端累库压力渐显，基 本面矛盾开始逐步积累。铁水复产和节前补库预期支撑铁矿价格，但 高库存限制上方空间。焦煤供给端预期仍有反复，冬储支撑有限，盘 面冲高回落。玻璃纯碱供需过剩继续压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：港口库存持续累积，供应端存扰动预期，需求端铁 水复产和节前补库支撑矿价，现实方面供需两端仍有待验证，短期预 计震荡运行。废钢供需双弱，钢厂库存偏高，补库放缓，废钢现货上 涨乏力，但电炉利润尚可，日耗高位，支撑需求，整体基本面矛盾不 突出，预计价格震荡为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象，且钢厂复产预期仍在， 随着中下游冬储补库逐渐开启，且盘面大涨或带动期现及投机需求进 场采购，焦炭供需结构或 ...

元旦过后，主流区域纯碱现货价格逐渐企稳，2025年11月出口量增加，但国内需求不强，价格维持低 位。2025年12月供应逐步恢复，总产量高于往年同期，企业库存维持高位，供需矛盾未明显改善。宏观 方面，近期召开的央行工作会议明确提出继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，把促进物价合理回升作为货币 政策的重要考量。另外，受成本抬升预期带动，近期纯碱期货价格大幅反弹，刺激中下游补货。 行业开工率下降 据统计，2025年1—12月全国纯碱产量为3785.7万吨，同比增长2.2%，其中12月产量升至318万吨。由于 检修企业陆续复产，未来纯碱产量大概率继续回升。截至1月2日，国内氨碱法装置开工率为79.2%，环 比下降4.1个百分点，同比下降7.3个百分点；联碱法装置开工率为72.7%，环比下降1.1个百分点，同比 下降8.5个百分点。 新产能投放方面，2026年一季度仍有两套装置计划投产，总产能达370万吨／年，届时国内纯碱产能将 升至4460万吨／年。 出口方面，2025年11月纯碱出口量为18.94万吨，环比减少2.51万吨；2025年1—11月出口总量为196.12 万吨，同比增加92.25万吨。出口量增加的主要原因是国 ...

能源化工团队 | 作者： | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015738 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578971 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月08日星期四 期货研究院 方正中期玻璃纯碱产业链日度策略 FG&SA Futures Daily Report 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 【玻璃】 现货方面，周三国内浮法玻璃价格稳中有涨，交投氛围显著改善。 华北市场价格走高，生产企业出厂价普涨1-2元/重量箱；华中区域 价格基本走稳；华南部分货源上调1-2元/重量箱得到落实，月初部 分下游提货较为积极，市场交投氛围相对较好，个别货源仍有涨价 计划；西南四川本周报价走高，后期有望进一步上调。 随着玻璃供应密集减量，高库存或难进一步构成价格上行的压力。 对产业来说，库存逐步从负担变成财富，这一观念转变或能与强有 力的环保政策及房地产预期形成共振，玻璃后市仍值得期待。 玻璃盘面走势企稳，05合约买入头寸继续持有。05合约下方支撑9 50-970，上方压力1250-13 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-08 原料成本推升，钢价强势向上 玻璃纯碱：宏观情绪转好，期现价格大涨 市场分析 玻璃方面，昨日玻璃盘面大幅上涨，现货方面，部分厂家存在涨价行为，期现商逐步拿货入场，短期对于价格有 所支撑。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾依旧较大，虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修，但是相较刚需下降速度，减产力度仍显 不足。伴随期现商采购，库存压力有望缓解，市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期，持续关注玻璃冷修进展。 纯碱方面，昨日纯碱盘面大幅上涨，现货方面，下游刚需采购有限，期现商和贸易商拿货积极性提升，现货价格 跟随上涨。 供需与逻辑：目前纯碱供需矛盾相对有限，供给有所下降，伴随需求转弱，库存环比回升。考虑到纯碱后期仍有 新增项目投产，同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期，仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润，避免再度陷入供需失衡局面。短 期在宏观情绪带动下，纯碱投机性需求提升，后期持续关注浮法玻璃产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏强 纯碱方面：震荡偏强 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 硅锰方面，昨日受黑色系整体上涨的影响，硅锰期货同 ...

从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 黑色建材日报 2026-01-08 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3187 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 76 元/吨（2.442%）。当日注册仓单 56844 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 174.14 万手，环比增加 178435 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3180 元/吨, 环比增加 30/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比增加 40 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3332 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 69 元/吨（2.114%）。 当日注册仓单 103995 吨, 环比减少 593 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 137.79 万手，环比增加 103802 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比增加 50 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比增加 40 元/吨 ...