Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soda ash industry is short - term volatility [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current fundamentals of soda ash have slightly improved. Although there is short - term support from policy expectations and market sentiment, the continuous release of new production capacity weakens the market supply - demand outlook, and prices may fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support trend near the 20 - day moving average. Future focus should be on downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main soda ash contract opened low and closed high, with an intraday volatile rebound. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating short - term volatility. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 11,220 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 15,412 lots. The intraday high was 1232, the low was 1206, and the closing price was 1222, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: It was stable with slight fluctuations. The enterprise equipment had a narrow - range change. The third phase of Henan Zhongyuan resumed operation, and the production increased. The downstream trading atmosphere was average, with low purchasing enthusiasm and resistance to high prices, maintaining low - price and just - in - time procurement [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 28 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, the domestic soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. The light soda ash output was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43 percentage points from the previous week. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, up 11.20 percentage points; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, up 1.33 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, up 2.24 percentage points [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5647 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons or 0.51% from last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 844,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 720,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,500 tons [2] - **Demand**: This week, the soda ash enterprise shipment volume was 589,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the cold repair of some glass production lines at the end of last month [2] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit (per two tons) of the co - production method was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%. The price of raw material ore salt was stable during the week, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to higher costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output continues to increase. One glass production line started production yesterday, and the cold - repair pace slowed down, resulting in a slight recovery in the rigid demand for soda ash. In addition, there is some short - term support under continuous losses and positive macro - sentiment [4]