期货研究报告 2025年12月22日 周报 纯碱：企业库存预期高位，震荡运行 蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 2、本周基本面数据周度变化： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究报告 1. 期现货市场回顾 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：国内纯碱市场走势震荡，价格稳中有降。隆众资讯数据监测，上周国内纯碱产量 72.14万吨，环比下降1.4万吨，跌幅1.91%。纯碱综合产能利用率82.74%，环比下降1.61%，个别企业负荷波 动及检修，供应窄幅下降；国内纯碱厂家总库存149.93万吨，周增加0.50万吨，涨幅0.33%，期货下跌，厂 库提货增加，个别企业下降明显，其他库存稳中有涨。周内，纯碱企业待发订单12+天，窄幅下降，新订单 近期接收减弱。 展望：当前纯碱企业利润不佳，本周国内纯碱开工预期高位较稳。纯碱下游需求预计稳中偏弱，下游 浮法玻璃预期产量小幅下滑，光伏玻璃产量预期暂稳，终端陆续停工，组件采买减少，光伏玻璃消费减少。 纯碱供需宽松背景下，预期近期纯碱企业库存仍维持高位运行，后期重点关注纯碱开工变化。预计纯碱价 格近期震荡运行，05合约上方 ...

2025年12月15日 周报 期货研究报告 纯碱：企业库存预期高位，震荡偏弱 蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：国内纯碱市场走势淡稳，价格大稳小动。隆众资讯数据监测，上周国内纯碱产量 73.54万吨，环比增加3.15万吨，涨幅4.48%。纯碱综合产能利用率84.35%，环比增加3.62%，检修恢复，暂 无新增检修计划，整体供应呈现增加趋势。国内纯碱厂家总库存149.43万吨，周下降4.43万吨，跌幅2.88%， 个别企业期现成交量增加，提货加快，其他的基本上产销维持，个别增加。周内，纯碱待发订单接近13天， 窄幅增加。 展望：当前纯碱企业利润不佳，本周国内纯碱开工预期高位较稳。纯碱下游需求预计稳中偏弱，下游 浮法玻璃预期产量小幅下滑，光伏玻璃产量预期暂稳，终端陆续停工，组件采买减少，光伏玻璃消费减少。 纯碱供需宽松背景下，预期近期纯碱企业库存仍维持高位运行，后期重点关注纯碱开工变化。预计纯碱价 格近期偏弱运行，05合约上方压力1200一线。 期货研究报告 1. 期现货市场回顾 上周华东纯碱市场走势淡稳，价格窄幅调整，期价走势震 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the oil market is one of oversupply and short - term geopolitical instability. Oil prices are expected to be weak with fluctuations [1]. - Silver has upward momentum due to weak US economic data and potential Fed rate cuts, but may face short - term correction pressure and is bullish in the medium term [1]. - Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [3]. - Manganese silicon prices are likely to remain low, with cost support but limited demand and difficulty in cost transmission [3]. - Coke market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The first round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see, and farmers can choose the right time for hedging [5]. - Palm oil market trends are unclear in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and changes in China - Canada trade policies should be focused on in the future [6]. - PX prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the medium term, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - Natural rubber market will operate with fluctuations, affected by factors such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [7]. - Short - term treasury bond market has entered a volatile range, and the stock - bond seesaw and capital market trends should be monitored [8]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions on rebounds [9]. - Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and the differentiation between gold and silver should be noted [9]. - Ethylene glycol 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [10]. Summaries According to Different Product Categories Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and US threats to close Venezuelan airspace, along with OPEC+ keeping production unchanged in Q1 2026, led to a more than 1% increase in overnight oil prices. Supply is in excess, and short - term geopolitical instability exists. Pay attention to US - Russia negotiations [1]. - **PX**: Domestic and Asian PX device loads have declined. Although some factories use MX to supplement PX production, the supply remains at a relatively high level. There are potential maintenance and load - reduction plans for PX devices at home and abroad, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has decreased, and overall downstream demand is stable. The 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased, and inventory has declined. The float glass market has slightly decreased in production, and the soda ash market is expected to operate with fluctuations [9]. Metals - **Silver**: Weak US economic data may strengthen the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Silver has upward momentum but may face short - term correction pressure [1]. - **Thread Steel**: The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, inventory is decreasing, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The start - up rate of manganese silicon enterprises has decreased. The cost of imported manganese ore has increased, but manufacturers' profits are poor. The market supply - demand is loose, and prices are likely to remain low [3]. - **Coke**: Coke production and inventory of steel mills have increased. Supply has increased, while demand has weakened in the off - season. The first round of price cuts has started, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The price of pork has declined. The supply is in excess, and the pickling season has limited impact. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased slightly. Market expectations of Indonesia reducing export taxes may affect prices, and the short - term trend is unclear [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased slightly. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and customs clearance efficiency affect supply expectations, and prices will maintain a volatile pattern [6]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Short - term funds show differentiation. The bond market is affected by economic fundamentals and year - end policies, and has entered a volatile range [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but downstream demand is weak. The inventory in bonded areas has increased, and the market is expected to operate with fluctuations [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply of ethylene glycol has decreased slightly, port inventory has increased, downstream polyester demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations [10]. - **Gold**: Potential changes in the Fed's top leadership may affect the precious metal market. Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short term, the soda ash market is expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation. The dual pressures of demand contraction due to the concentrated cold repair of float glass and the expectation of new capacity launch still exist. However, the growth of the export market and the increased demand for light soda ash in sectors such as lithium carbonate bring marginal improvements. The cost support and the pattern of loose supply - demand will continue to compete, and the price movement space is limited [8][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2601 fluctuated within a narrow range between 1161 - 1194 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon close on November 28, 2025, the main contract rose 7 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.60%, closing at 1177 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: As of November 27, 2025, the domestic soda ash production was 698,100 tons, a decrease of 22,700 tons or 3.15% from the previous week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, down 2.60% from the previous week [7][9]. - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 28,300 tons or 1.75% from Monday. Among them, light soda ash was 740,600 tons, a decrease of 200 tons, and heavy soda ash was 846,800 tons, a decrease of 28,100 tons [7][14]. - **Shipment**: On November 27, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 755,100 tons, a decrease of 3.65% from the previous week. The overall shipment rate was 108.16%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points [16]. - **Profit**: As of November 27, 2025, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the combined - alkali method was - 140 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.50 yuan/ton from the previous week. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 38.50 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [19][23]. 3.3 Downstream Industry - **Float Glass Industry**: As of November 27, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 157,200 tons, a decrease of 0.57% from the 20th. The weekly output from November 21 - 27 was 1.1039 million tons, a decrease of 0.57% from the previous week and 0.86% from the same period last year. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.362 million weight boxes, a decrease of 941,000 weight boxes or 1.49% from the previous week, and an increase of 27.23% from the same period last year [26][30]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - **Market Situation**: This week, the main soda ash futures contract showed a low - level volatile pattern. The spot market quotes remained stable, but the futures market was under pressure due to the marginal weakening of the supply - demand fundamentals [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply decreased slightly this week, but future supply pressure will increase with the expected December launch of the 2.8 - million - ton natural soda project of Yuangxing Energy Phase II. Demand for light soda ash is stable, while heavy soda ash demand is under pressure due to the increased cold repair of float glass production lines [38]. - **Inventory and Profit**: Inventory continued to decline but remained at a high level. The combined - alkali method profit improved slightly, and the ammonia - alkali method profit remained stable at a low level. The industry as a whole is still in the loss range [39]. - **Outlook and Suggestions**: In the short term, the soda ash market is expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation. It is recommended to take a short - term volatile approach, not to short excessively in the context of industry losses, and pay attention to cost support levels. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, consider selling the wide - straddle option strategy [40][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with supply contraction providing some support but demand weakness restricting price increases. The core contradiction lies in the game between high inventory and weak demand. Future focus should be on the sustainability of inventory reduction and whether industry losses will lead to more production cuts [9][38]. - Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies for single - side trading, temporarily observing for arbitrage, and considering a bear spread option combination [39]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 740,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30,300 tons or 3.93%. Light soda ash production was 325,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,100 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 415,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,200 tons [10]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48 percentage points. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67 percentage points, and the combined soda process capacity utilization rate was 75.74%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.60 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 87.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points [12]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7005 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,900 tons or 0.94%. Light soda ash inventory was 759,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,800 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 940,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons [8][15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - On October 16, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 699,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56%. The overall shipment rate was 94.50%, a week - on - week increase of 2.27 percentage points [16]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 29.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton. The cost side had a narrow upward trend, and the soda ash price was weakly stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process continued to be weak [20]. - The theoretical profit (double - ton) of the combined soda process for soda ash was - 129.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton. The cost increased, the soda ash price was weakly stable, and the by - product ammonium chloride price declined, resulting in a significant decrease in the double - ton profit of the combined soda process [24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Float Glass Industry Output - As of October 16, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 161,300 tons, the same as on the 9th. The weekly output from October 10 - 16, 2025 was 1.1289 million tons, the same as the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 0.62% [27]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes or 2.31%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days from the previous period [31]. 3. Spot Market Situation - The price of动力煤(5500 kcal) increased by 2.55% to 723 yuan/ton; the price of原盐 - 井矿盐 in the East China region increased by 4% to 260 yuan/ton, while in the Northeast region it decreased by 3.7% to 1300 yuan/ton. Light soda ash prices in some regions such as Central China decreased, and heavy soda ash prices in some regions such as Northwest China decreased. The price of float glass decreased by 1.11% to 1246 yuan/ton, and the price of ammonium chloride decreased by 5.26% to 360 yuan/ton [37]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The soda ash market last week continued the pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply contracted, but demand was weak, and high - inventory pressure was not relieved. Profit conditions deteriorated further, and the core contradiction was the game between high inventory and weak demand [38].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic soda ash market is currently experiencing a weak and stable trend, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. As of now, the mainstream price for light soda ash is between 980-1600 RMB/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 980-1480 RMB/ton [1] - The market began the month with a downward trend due to high inventory and weak demand, particularly in North and South China. However, by mid-month, prices stabilized and saw slight increases in some regions due to supply constraints and pre-holiday stocking [1][2] - By the end of the month, the market showed signs of slight recovery, but overall demand remained sluggish, leading to a narrow price range with limited upward momentum [1][2] Group 2: Price Comparison - In September, the price of light soda ash in Northeast China decreased by 1.68% compared to August, while heavy soda ash dropped by 3.19%. In North China, light soda ash prices fell by 4.24%, and heavy soda ash decreased by 3.19% [3] - The price index for light soda ash as of September 28 was 1185.71, reflecting a decrease of 0.24% from the beginning of the month, while the heavy soda ash index increased by 0.93% [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of soda ash is expected to recover to high levels due to limited maintenance in the upcoming month, while overall industry inventory remains high, leading manufacturers to focus on sales to reduce stock [6] - The soda ash production in August was 3.281 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.92% and a month-on-month increase of 5.87% [16] - The operating rate of soda ash enterprises in August was approximately 85.25%, reflecting a slight increase of 4.09% from the previous month [18] Group 4: Import and Export Analysis - In August, China imported 0.03 thousand tons of soda ash, a significant year-on-year decrease of 99.64% and a month-on-month decrease of 90.98%. Cumulatively, from January to August, imports totaled approximately 2.07 thousand tons, down 97.68% from the previous year [9] - Conversely, soda ash exports in August reached 21.54 thousand tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 158.11% and a month-on-month increase of 33.56%. From January to August, total exports amounted to 136.94 thousand tons, up 132.58% year-on-year [12]

Market Overview - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable, with slight price adjustments in some regions for heavy soda ash [2] - As of August 20, 2023, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1220-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1240-1370 CNY/ton [2] Price Index Analysis - On August 20, the light soda ash price index stood at 1217.14, unchanged from the previous working day, while the heavy soda ash price index decreased by 8.57 to 1257.14, reflecting a decline of 0.68% [3] Futures Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1358 CNY/ton and closed at 1309 CNY/ton on August 20, marking a daily decline of 5.01% [5] - The market is under pressure due to high supply and accumulating inventory, with concerns over demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry [5] Future Market Predictions - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, with increasing industry inventory [6] - Key factors to monitor include the resumption of production facilities, downstream replenishment activities, and fluctuations in futures market sentiment [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of soda ash is strong while the demand is weak. The sentiment of policy benefits has faded. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly. The industry's supply-demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1371 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [6]. - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1320 yuan/ton, up 5.60% [6]. - The main basis was -50 yuan/ton, down 57.63% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1320 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.3 Fundamental - Supply - The production profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process was -22.90 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was 56.50 yuan/ton, with production profit rebounding from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.27%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash was 69.98 tons, with heavy soda ash at 39.87 tons, at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant capacity expansion and new production plans in the soda ash industry [21]. 3.4 Fundamental - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 109.83% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.96 tons, and the operating rate stabilized at 75% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [30]. 3.5 Fundamental - Inventory - The national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [2][33]. 3.6 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash from 2017 - 2024E showed that the industry's supply - demand relationship has fluctuated, with capacity, production, and demand all changing [34]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The peak summer maintenance period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The downstream photovoltaic glass has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3.8 Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [5]. - **Risk Points**: The cold repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is less than expected, and macro - level benefits exceed expectations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The price of soda ash has stabilized since late July, with market dynamics shifting towards a supply increase and weaker macro expectations, leading to a forecast of a weak price trend in the short term [1] Supply Dynamics - Domestic soda ash market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with a weekly production of 699,800 tons as of July 31, a decrease of 24,000 tons or 3.32% from the previous week [1] - Several soda ash production facilities are set to resume operations in early August, which may lead to an increase in production to approximately 733,600 tons per week [1] - New production capacity exceeding 2 million tons has been added this year, with an additional 3.5 million tons planned for the second half of the year, indicating potential future supply pressure [1] Inventory Trends - As of July 31, total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased to 1.7958 million tons, a decline of 3.69% [2] - The reduction in inventory is attributed to a shift from manufacturer stock to trader warehouses rather than an increase in actual market consumption [2] - Social inventory has increased, indicating that supply pressure may rise as production capacity is gradually released [2] Price Pressure - Recent trading activity has seen new orders for soda ash increase by 50 to 150 yuan, but weak downstream demand has led to a cautious market sentiment [3] - The main contract price for soda ash futures on August 3 closed at 1,247 yuan, down 161 yuan or 11.43% from July 24 [3] - Analysts predict that the soda ash market will continue to operate under pressure due to weak downstream demand, with price estimates ranging from 1,220 to 1,300 yuan [3] Demand Conditions - Overall demand for soda ash remains weak, particularly due to declining production in the photovoltaic glass sector, which affects soda ash usage [4] - The construction sector, a key application area for soda ash through float glass, has seen a 20% year-on-year decline in new housing starts, limiting future demand growth [4] - The profitability of photovoltaic glass is currently negative, further constraining demand for soda ash in the short term [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable, with prices holding firm but limited upward support due to a balanced supply-demand situation [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of July 15, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1150-1250 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1240-1340 CNY/ton. In Central China, light soda ash is priced at 1110-1310 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1220-1340 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on July 15 is 1157.14, reflecting a slight increase of 1.43, or 0.12%, from the previous working day. The heavy soda ash price index remains unchanged at 1225.71 [3]. Market Dynamics - The soda ash futures market experienced a slight decline on July 15, with the main contract opening at 1240 CNY/ton and closing at 1214 CNY/ton, marking a daily drop of 0.65%. The highest price during the day was 1247 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1202 CNY/ton, with total open interest increasing by 52,588 contracts to 1,585,075 [5]. - The supply side shows scattered maintenance and some companies increasing production, maintaining high output levels. However, industry profits are declining, putting pressure on producers. Downstream demand remains weak, with buyers primarily engaging in low-price essential purchases [5]. Future Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a stable operation in the short term, with weak driving forces and an unchanged supply-demand balance. Future attention should be given to macroeconomic policy changes and inventory fluctuations that may impact the market [6].