Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with demand slowing down. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers is rising at a high level, and the price is expected to be weak in the near future, with the 05 contract facing pressure at the 1220 level. Key factors to watch include soda ash production start - up changes, new capacity release progress, and inventory changes [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with pre - holiday active shipments by enterprises and slowing demand. Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 77.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88 million tons (1.12% decline). The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 83.25%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.94%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 158.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.69 million tons (2.39% increase). The backlog of orders from soda ash enterprises increased to over 12 days, an increase of over 2 days. In the future, the start - up of domestic soda ash is expected to be stable at a high level, and downstream demand is expected to be stable. The supply of soda ash is expected to be generally stable, and there is still an expectation of inventory reduction in the industry. Under the background of loose supply and demand, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level, and new capacity release will put pressure on the market [2]. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes 1. Spot and Futures Market Review - The soda ash market in East China was stable last week, with prices slightly adjusted. The futures price fluctuated, and the basis in the East China market was relatively stable [6]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - As of February 5, the domestic soda ash production was 77.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88 million tons (1.12% decline). Among them, the production of light soda ash was 36.03 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 million tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 41.40 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71 million tons. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton of soda ash by the combined soda process in China was - 29 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9.43%. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was - 88.80 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic glass**: As of February 5, the in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 86,960 tons per day, the same as the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 8.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 66.12%, the same as the previous week. The inventory of the downstream component market has been significantly reduced, and the component quotation is expected to be stable in the future. - **Float glass**: As of February 5, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 71.86%, the same as the previous week. The average capacity utilization rate was 75.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 percentage points. The production this week is expected to be stable compared with last week [11]. 4. Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of February 5, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 158.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.69 million tons (2.39% increase). Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 83.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.69 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 74.61 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3 million tons [13]. 5. Position Analysis - As of February 6, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 835,010, an increase of 7,951, and the short positions were 1,004,525, an increase of 3,468. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [15].

【冠通期货研究报告】 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 45 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 26 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开高走，日内震荡偏强。120 分钟布林带三轨缩 口，短期震荡信号，盘中压力关注日线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注布林带中轨线 附近。成交量较昨日增 19.6 万手，持仓量较昨日增 9307 手；日内最高 1210， 最低 1183，收盘 1205，（较昨结算价）涨 17 元/吨，涨幅 1.43%。 2，现货市场：淡稳震荡。企业装置窄幅波动，综合供应高位调整。下游需 求表现一般，采购积极性不佳，维持低价刚需补库。 执业资格证书编号：F03094979/Z0022841 供应方面，截止 1 月 22 日，国内纯碱产量 77.17 万吨，环比下跌 0.36 万 吨，跌幅 0.46%。其中，轻碱产量 35.88 万吨，环比下跌 0.27 万吨；重碱产量 41.29 万吨，环比下跌 0.09 万吨。综合产能利用率 86.42%，上周 86.82%，环比 下降 0.40%。其中氨碱产能利用率 87.69%，环比下降 2.27 ...

Report on Float Glass 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the overall market sentiment was weak. Affected by insufficient orders from downstream deep - processing enterprises, low inventory - stocking willingness, and seasonal factors approaching the Spring Festival, terminal demand was weak. Most regions saw a slight accumulation or stability in inventory, and the overall de - stocking rhythm lacked sustainability. Currently, the float glass market lacks substantial positive drivers, and market participants are mostly in a wait - and - see attitude. It is expected that the short - term market will continue to show a narrow - range oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 1000 - 1175 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of January 23, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1010 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main glass contract was 1057 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton; the basis was - 47 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton [13][19]. - **Cost and Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.90 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [13][29][32]. - **Supply**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 71.62%. The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.10%, remaining unchanged week - on - week [13][37][40]. - **Demand**: According to WIND data, from January to December 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 88101.37 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 9399.63 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. According to CAAM data, in December, the production and sales of automobiles were 329.60/327.22 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09%/6.20%; from January to December, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3453.10/3440.00 million vehicles [13][43][46]. - **Inventory**: As of January 23, 2026, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 5321.58 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 20.28 million heavy boxes; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 188.48 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 million heavy boxes [13][51]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of January 23, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1010 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main glass contract was 1057 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton; the basis was - 47 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton [19]. - **Glass Inter - month Spread**: As of January 23, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was 159 yuan/ton (+318), the 05 - 09 spread was - 105 yuan/ton (+2), the 09 - 01 spread was - 54 yuan/ton (-320), and the open interest reached 155.73 million lots [22]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Float Glass Profit and Cost**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.90 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [29][32]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Glass Output and Operating Rate**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 71.62% [37]. - **Glass Demand**: As of January 23, 2026, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.10%, remaining unchanged week - on - week. From January to December 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 88101.37 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 9399.63 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In December, the production and sales of automobiles were 329.60/327.22 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09%/6.20%; from January to December, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3453.10/3440.00 million vehicles [40][43][46]. 3.5 Inventory As of January 23, 2026, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 5321.58 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 20.28 million heavy boxes, and the previous forecast value was 5050.8 million heavy boxes. The de - stocking market did not appear as expected. As the demand from processing plants came to an end, it was more difficult to reduce the factory inventory, and the estimated inventory for this week was 5300 million heavy boxes; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 188.48 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 million heavy boxes [51]. Report on Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the supply - demand pattern of the soda ash market was generally loose. The supply side remained abundant, and the purchasing mentality of downstream enterprises became more cautious. However, the inventory of glass factories was low, and the pre - holiday restocking demand increased. The trading volume at the Shahe and Hebei delivery warehouses was more than 30,000 tons. Overall, the current market lacks substantial positive drivers, the futures market maintains a weak oscillating trend, which further affects the spot market and market sentiment. It is expected that the short - term soda ash market will continue to operate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 1120 - 1260 yuan/ton [62][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of January 23, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main soda ash contract was 1185 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton; the basis was - 35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [62][68]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 168.3 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 693 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week [62][79][82]. - **Supply**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 77.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 86.42%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 tons; the output of light soda ash was 35.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 tons [62][90][93]. - **Demand**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 71.62%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in December reached 2.95 million tons [62][96]. - **Inventory**: As of January 23, 2026, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0538 million tons; the available inventory days were 12.61 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 days. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 69.67 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.13 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 82.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 tons [62][101][104]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of January 23, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main soda ash contract was 1185 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton; the basis was - 35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [68]. - **Soda Ash Inter - month Spread**: As of January 23, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was 100 yuan/ton (+176), the 05 - 09 spread was - 62 yuan/ton (+3), the 09 - 01 spread was - 38 yuan/ton (-179), and the open interest reached 155.73 million lots [71]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Profit**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 168.3 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton [79]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 693 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton [82][85]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Soda Ash Output**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 77.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 86.42%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 tons; the output of light soda ash was 35.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 tons [90][93]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 71.62%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in December reached 2.95 million tons [96]. 3.5 Inventory As of January 23, 2026, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0538 million tons; the available inventory days were 12.61 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 days. The previous forecast value was 1.5727 million tons, and the de - stocking speed was slightly faster than expected; it is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease this week, with the estimated value of 1.48 million tons. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 69.67 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.13 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 82.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 tons [101][104].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soda ash industry is short - term volatility [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current fundamentals of soda ash have slightly improved. Although there is short - term support from policy expectations and market sentiment, the continuous release of new production capacity weakens the market supply - demand outlook, and prices may fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support trend near the 20 - day moving average. Future focus should be on downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main soda ash contract opened low and closed high, with an intraday volatile rebound. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating short - term volatility. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 11,220 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 15,412 lots. The intraday high was 1232, the low was 1206, and the closing price was 1222, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: It was stable with slight fluctuations. The enterprise equipment had a narrow - range change. The third phase of Henan Zhongyuan resumed operation, and the production increased. The downstream trading atmosphere was average, with low purchasing enthusiasm and resistance to high prices, maintaining low - price and just - in - time procurement [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 28 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, the domestic soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. The light soda ash output was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43 percentage points from the previous week. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, up 11.20 percentage points; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, up 1.33 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, up 2.24 percentage points [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5647 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons or 0.51% from last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 844,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 720,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,500 tons [2] - **Demand**: This week, the soda ash enterprise shipment volume was 589,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the cold repair of some glass production lines at the end of last month [2] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit (per two tons) of the co - production method was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%. The price of raw material ore salt was stable during the week, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to higher costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output continues to increase. One glass production line started production yesterday, and the cold - repair pace slowed down, resulting in a slight recovery in the rigid demand for soda ash. In addition, there is some short - term support under continuous losses and positive macro - sentiment [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market first declined and then rose, with increased low - price transactions and an improved atmosphere. New capacity has significant release pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 1300 level. The supply has increased significantly, and the inventory is at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to be stable to weak [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market first declined and then rose. Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43% from the previous week. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 164,400 tons or 11.67%. The downstream demand is expected to be stable to weak, and the inventory is expected to remain at a high level [1]. 2. Factors to Watch - Soda ash start - up changes, new capacity release progress, and soda ash enterprise inventory changes [2] 3. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Week - on - Week Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Basis (East China) | Yuan/ton | 7 | 41 | - 34 | - 82.93 | | Enterprise Inventory | 10,000 tons | 157.27 | 140.83 | 16.44 | 11.67 | | Weekly Output | 10,000 tons | 75.36 | 69.71 | 5.65 | 8.11 | | Dual - ton Profit of Dual - alkali Method | Yuan/ton | - 40 | - 35.5 | - 4.50 | - 12.68 | | Ammonia - alkali Method Profit | Yuan/ton | - 57.85 | - 95.4 | 37.55 | 39.36 | | Downstream Float Glass Start - up Rate | % | 71.96 | 73.03 | - 1.07 | - 1.47 | | Downstream Photovoltaic Glass Start - up Rate | % | 67.04 | 67.2 | - 0.16 | - 0.24 | [3] 4. Periodic and Spot Market Review - Last week, the soda ash market in East China was stable with narrow price adjustments. The futures price fluctuated steadily, and the basis in the East China market showed a slight rebound [5]. 5. Supply Situation Analysis - As of January 8, the domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. The theoretical profit of dual - alkali method soda ash was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of ammonia - alkali method soda ash was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.36% [7]. 6. Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of January 8, the domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,160 tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% and a year - on - year increase of 8.64%. The capacity utilization rate was 67.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. Component enterprises plan to raise prices, but actual transactions will continue to be negotiated. - **Float Glass**: As of January 8, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 71.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 percentage points. The production is expected to decline slightly this week [10]. 7. Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of January 8, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 164,400 tons or 11.67%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 104,300 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,100 tons [13]. 8. Position Analysis - As of January 9, the long positions of the top 20 members in soda ash futures were 773,207, an increase of 1,952. The short positions were 963,988, an increase of 22,552. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [15].

Report 1: Glass Weekly Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Report's Core View Recently, with multiple production lines undergoing cold repairs, the daily melting volume of glass has dropped to a multi - year low (15.01 tons), and the support from rising fuel costs has boosted market sentiment and driven up prices. On the spot side, influenced by the positive futures market, many glass manufacturers have announced price hikes, and dealers' purchasing sentiment is decent. However, due to the traditional off - season, terminal orders are growing sluggishly, and the high overall industry inventory continues to limit the upside potential of prices. The market should focus on the progress of high - inventory digestion and actual spot trading performance. Given the large short - term fluctuations, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [13][14]. Summary According to Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of January 9, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1144 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 57 yuan/ton; the basis was - 124 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton [13][19]. - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 186.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 73.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.6 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was - 5.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.58 yuan/ton [13][29][32]. - Supply: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.92 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, a week - on - week decrease of 2; the operating rate was 71.95% [13][37]. - Demand: According to WIND data, from January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 78701.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; in November, the sales area of commercial housing was 6719.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. According to CAAM data, in November, the production and sales of automobiles were 353.16/342.90 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 2.76%/3.40%; from January to November, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3123.10/3112.70 million vehicles [13][43][46]. - Inventory: As of January 9, 2026, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 5551.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 134.80 million heavy boxes; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 261.36 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 95.28 million heavy boxes [13][51]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Glass Basis: As of January 9, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1020 yuan/ton, the closing price of the glass main contract was 1144 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 124 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton [19]. - Glass Inter - month Spread: As of January 9, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 120 yuan/ton (+18), the 05 - 09 spread was - 90 yuan/ton (+13), the 09 - 01 spread was 210 yuan/ton (- 31), and the open interest reached 154.85 million lots [22]. 3. Profit and Cost - Float Glass Profit and Cost: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 186.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 73.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.6 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was - 5.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.58 yuan/ton [29][32]. 4. Supply and Demand - Glass Production and Operating Rate: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.92 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, a week - on - week decrease of 2; the operating rate was 71.95% [37]. - Glass Demand: As of January 9, 2026, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.10%, unchanged from the previous week. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 78701.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; in November, the sales area of commercial housing was 6719.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the production and sales of automobiles were 353.16/342.90 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 2.76%/3.40%; from January to November, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3123.10/3112.70 million vehicles [40][43][46]. 5. Inventory As of January 9, 2026, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 5551.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 134.80 million heavy boxes; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 261.36 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 95.28 million heavy boxes [51]. Report 2: Soda Ash Weekly Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Report's Core View Last week, the overall supply of soda ash was stable, the load of some plants increased slightly, and the industry's operating rate rebounded. Meanwhile, the second - phase project of Alashan was officially put into production, and the market supply pressure continued. In terms of demand, the production capacity of photovoltaic glass and float glass showed a downward trend, the rigid demand for heavy soda ash decreased accordingly, downstream users generally adopted a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and most purchases were for low - price rigid needs, resulting in a dull overall trading atmosphere. Enterprise inventories continued to accumulate, and the pressure to sell goods increased significantly. Some manufacturers slightly lowered their quotes to promote sales. Although the price of local heavy soda ash increased slightly driven by the futures market in the later part of the week, the market still lacked substantial positive support, and the overall weak pattern remained unchanged [62][63]. Summary According to Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of January 9, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1188 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 66 yuan/ton; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1228 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton; the basis was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 47 yuan/ton [62][68]. - Cost and Profit: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 145.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.55 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.5 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2315 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [62][79][82]. - Supply: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 75.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.65 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.39%. The output of heavy soda ash was 40.45 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 tons; the output of light soda ash was 34.91 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.30 tons [62][90][93]. - Demand: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.92 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 tons, the number of operating production lines was 212, a week - on - week decrease of 2, and the operating rate was 71.95%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in November reached 289 tons [62][96]. - Inventory: As of January 9, 2026, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 157.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.44 tons; the available inventory days were 13.04 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.36 days. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 73.62 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.01 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 83.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.43 tons [62][101][104]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Soda Ash Basis: As of January 9, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1188 yuan/ton, the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1228 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 47 yuan/ton [68]. - Soda Ash Inter - month Spread: As of January 9, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 85 yuan/ton (- 1), the 05 - 09 spread was - 68 yuan/ton (- 5), the 09 - 01 spread was 153 yuan/ton (+6), and the open interest reached 154.85 million lots [71]. 3. Profit and Cost - Soda Ash Profit: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 145.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.55 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.5 yuan/ton [79]. - Raw Material Cost: As of January 9, 2026, the price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2315 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [82][85]. 4. Supply and Demand - Soda Ash Production: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 75.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.65 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.39%. The output of heavy soda ash was 40.45 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 tons; the output of light soda ash was 34.91 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.30 tons [90][93]. - Soda Ash Demand: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.92 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 tons, the number of operating production lines was 212, a week - on - week decrease of 2, and the operating rate was 71.95%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in November reached 289 tons [96]. 5. Inventory As of January 9, 2026, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 157.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.44 tons; the available inventory days were 13.04 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.36 days. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 73.62 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.01 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 83.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.43 tons [101][104]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soda ash market is fluctuating with prices stable but slightly decreasing. The supply has decreased slightly due to load fluctuations and maintenance of individual enterprises. The downstream demand is expected to be moderately weak, and the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level in the near term. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the 05 contract facing resistance at around 1220 yuan/ton [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market has been fluctuating, and prices have been stable with a slight decline. Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 72.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 million tons or 1.91%. The comprehensive utilization rate of production capacity was 82.74%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.61%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 149.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 million tons or 0.33%. The number of days of pending orders for soda ash enterprises was more than 12 days, showing a narrow decline [1]. - Currently, the profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. The domestic soda ash operation rate is expected to be stable at a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The production of downstream float glass is expected to decline slightly, while that of photovoltaic glass is expected to remain stable. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to changes in the soda ash operation rate [1]. Factors to Watch - Changes in soda ash operation rate; new production capacity release progress; changes in soda ash enterprise inventory [2] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data This Week Spot and Futures Market Review - Last week, the soda ash market in East China was stable with light trading, and prices were slightly adjusted. The futures price fluctuated and rebounded, and the basis in the East China market showed a downward trend [7] Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 18, the domestic soda ash production was 72.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 million tons or 1.91%. The production of light soda ash was 33.11 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65 million tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 39.03 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75 million tons. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton of soda ash by the joint - alkali method in China was - 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.33%. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - alkali method was - 66.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.33% [8] Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic glass**: As of December 18, the domestic photovoltaic glass production capacity in operation was 88,680 tons per day, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 3.54%. The capacity utilization rate this week was 67.82%, unchanged from the previous week. In December, the supply - demand gap is expected to widen, mainly because the industry demand is expected to shrink significantly near the end of the year, while the decline in supply is relatively small. Considering the current industry inventory of more than 30 days, there may be unexpected production cuts in December [12]. - **Float glass**: As of December 18, the average operation rate of the float glass industry was 73.99%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points, and the average capacity utilization rate was 77.48%, unchanged from the previous week. There is an expectation that a production line in South China will stop production this week, and the float glass production may slightly decrease [12] Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of December 18, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 149.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 million tons or 0.33%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 72.76 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.38 million tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 77.17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 million tons [14] Position Analysis - As of December 19, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in soda ash futures was 785,571, an increase of 4,834, and the short - position volume was 963,332, an increase of 27,622. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soda ash market is stable with minor price fluctuations. The supply is increasing, while the downstream demand is expected to be weak. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and the price is expected to be weak in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 1200 level [1]. - Key factors to watch include changes in soda ash production, new capacity launch progress, and changes in soda ash enterprise inventory [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the domestic soda ash market was stable, with production increasing by 3.15 million tons (4.48%) to 73.54 million tons, and the overall capacity utilization rate rising to 84.35%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 4.43 million tons (2.88%) to 149.43 million tons. The pending orders increased slightly to nearly 13 days [1]. - Currently, the profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. The domestic soda ash production is expected to remain high and stable this week. The downstream demand is expected to be weak, with the output of float glass expected to decline slightly and that of photovoltaic glass expected to remain stable. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and the price is expected to be weak in the near term [1]. 2. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes 2.1 Spot and Futures Market Review - Last week, the East China soda ash market was stable with minor price adjustments. The futures price trended weakly, and the basis in the East China market showed a stable and upward trend [5]. 2.2 Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 11, the domestic soda ash production was 73.54 million tons, an increase of 3.15 million tons (4.48%). Among them, the production of light soda ash was 33.76 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 39.78 million tons, an increase of 1.63 million tons [7]. - The theoretical profit of China's combined soda process (double - ton) was - 49 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50.25%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 67.60 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% [7]. 2.3 Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of December 11, the domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,680 tons/day, unchanged from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 3.54%. The capacity utilization rate was 67.82%, unchanged from the previous period. In December, the supply - demand gap is expected to widen, and there may be unexpected production cuts [11]. - **Float Glass**: As of December 11, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 73.59%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points, and the average capacity utilization rate was 77.29%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points. The output of float glass may slightly decline [11]. 2.4 Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of December 11, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 149.43 million tons, a decrease of 4.43 million tons (2.88%). Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 70.38 million tons, a decrease of 2.40 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 79.05 million tons, a decrease of 2.03 million tons [13]. 2.5 Position Analysis - As of December 12, the long positions of the top 20 members in soda ash futures were 942,182, a decrease of 6,473, and the short positions were 1,160,330, a decrease of 4,400. The net positions were bearish [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the oil market is one of oversupply and short - term geopolitical instability. Oil prices are expected to be weak with fluctuations [1]. - Silver has upward momentum due to weak US economic data and potential Fed rate cuts, but may face short - term correction pressure and is bullish in the medium term [1]. - Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [3]. - Manganese silicon prices are likely to remain low, with cost support but limited demand and difficulty in cost transmission [3]. - Coke market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The first round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see, and farmers can choose the right time for hedging [5]. - Palm oil market trends are unclear in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and changes in China - Canada trade policies should be focused on in the future [6]. - PX prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the medium term, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - Natural rubber market will operate with fluctuations, affected by factors such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [7]. - Short - term treasury bond market has entered a volatile range, and the stock - bond seesaw and capital market trends should be monitored [8]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions on rebounds [9]. - Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and the differentiation between gold and silver should be noted [9]. - Ethylene glycol 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [10]. Summaries According to Different Product Categories Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and US threats to close Venezuelan airspace, along with OPEC+ keeping production unchanged in Q1 2026, led to a more than 1% increase in overnight oil prices. Supply is in excess, and short - term geopolitical instability exists. Pay attention to US - Russia negotiations [1]. - **PX**: Domestic and Asian PX device loads have declined. Although some factories use MX to supplement PX production, the supply remains at a relatively high level. There are potential maintenance and load - reduction plans for PX devices at home and abroad, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has decreased, and overall downstream demand is stable. The 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased, and inventory has declined. The float glass market has slightly decreased in production, and the soda ash market is expected to operate with fluctuations [9]. Metals - **Silver**: Weak US economic data may strengthen the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Silver has upward momentum but may face short - term correction pressure [1]. - **Thread Steel**: The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, inventory is decreasing, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The start - up rate of manganese silicon enterprises has decreased. The cost of imported manganese ore has increased, but manufacturers' profits are poor. The market supply - demand is loose, and prices are likely to remain low [3]. - **Coke**: Coke production and inventory of steel mills have increased. Supply has increased, while demand has weakened in the off - season. The first round of price cuts has started, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The price of pork has declined. The supply is in excess, and the pickling season has limited impact. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased slightly. Market expectations of Indonesia reducing export taxes may affect prices, and the short - term trend is unclear [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased slightly. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and customs clearance efficiency affect supply expectations, and prices will maintain a volatile pattern [6]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Short - term funds show differentiation. The bond market is affected by economic fundamentals and year - end policies, and has entered a volatile range [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but downstream demand is weak. The inventory in bonded areas has increased, and the market is expected to operate with fluctuations [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply of ethylene glycol has decreased slightly, port inventory has increased, downstream polyester demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations [10]. - **Gold**: Potential changes in the Fed's top leadership may affect the precious metal market. Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short term, the soda ash market is expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation. The dual pressures of demand contraction due to the concentrated cold repair of float glass and the expectation of new capacity launch still exist. However, the growth of the export market and the increased demand for light soda ash in sectors such as lithium carbonate bring marginal improvements. The cost support and the pattern of loose supply - demand will continue to compete, and the price movement space is limited [8][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2601 fluctuated within a narrow range between 1161 - 1194 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon close on November 28, 2025, the main contract rose 7 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.60%, closing at 1177 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: As of November 27, 2025, the domestic soda ash production was 698,100 tons, a decrease of 22,700 tons or 3.15% from the previous week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, down 2.60% from the previous week [7][9]. - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 28,300 tons or 1.75% from Monday. Among them, light soda ash was 740,600 tons, a decrease of 200 tons, and heavy soda ash was 846,800 tons, a decrease of 28,100 tons [7][14]. - **Shipment**: On November 27, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 755,100 tons, a decrease of 3.65% from the previous week. The overall shipment rate was 108.16%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points [16]. - **Profit**: As of November 27, 2025, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the combined - alkali method was - 140 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.50 yuan/ton from the previous week. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 38.50 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [19][23]. 3.3 Downstream Industry - **Float Glass Industry**: As of November 27, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 157,200 tons, a decrease of 0.57% from the 20th. The weekly output from November 21 - 27 was 1.1039 million tons, a decrease of 0.57% from the previous week and 0.86% from the same period last year. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.362 million weight boxes, a decrease of 941,000 weight boxes or 1.49% from the previous week, and an increase of 27.23% from the same period last year [26][30]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - **Market Situation**: This week, the main soda ash futures contract showed a low - level volatile pattern. The spot market quotes remained stable, but the futures market was under pressure due to the marginal weakening of the supply - demand fundamentals [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply decreased slightly this week, but future supply pressure will increase with the expected December launch of the 2.8 - million - ton natural soda project of Yuangxing Energy Phase II. Demand for light soda ash is stable, while heavy soda ash demand is under pressure due to the increased cold repair of float glass production lines [38]. - **Inventory and Profit**: Inventory continued to decline but remained at a high level. The combined - alkali method profit improved slightly, and the ammonia - alkali method profit remained stable at a low level. The industry as a whole is still in the loss range [39]. - **Outlook and Suggestions**: In the short term, the soda ash market is expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation. It is recommended to take a short - term volatile approach, not to short excessively in the context of industry losses, and pay attention to cost support levels. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, consider selling the wide - straddle option strategy [40][41].