发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开低走，日内震荡偏弱。120 分钟布林带三轨缩 口，短期震荡信号，盘中压力关注日线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注布林带中轨线 附近。成交量较昨日减 40.4 万手，持仓量较昨日增 2939 手；日内最高 1206， 最低 1188，收盘 1194，（较昨结算价）跌 3 元/吨，跌幅 0.25%。 2，现货市场：淡稳调整。企业装置稳定运行，综合供应维持高位。下游需 求表现平平，采购氛围不佳，维持低价刚需补库。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 56 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 【冠通期货研究报告】 供应方面，截止 1 月 22 日，国内纯碱产量 77.17 万吨，环比下跌 0.36 万 吨，跌幅 0.46%。其中，轻碱产量 35.88 万吨，环比下跌 0.27 万吨；重碱产量 41.29 万吨，环比下跌 0.09 万吨。综合产能利用率 86.42%，上周 86.82%，环比 下降 0.40%。其中氨碱产能利用率 87.69%，环比下降 2.27%；联产产能利用率 77.99%，环比下降 0.89%。15 家年产能百万吨及以 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soda ash industry is short - term volatility [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current fundamentals of soda ash have slightly improved. Although there is short - term support from policy expectations and market sentiment, the continuous release of new production capacity weakens the market supply - demand outlook, and prices may fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support trend near the 20 - day moving average. Future focus should be on downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main soda ash contract opened low and closed high, with an intraday volatile rebound. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating short - term volatility. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 11,220 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 15,412 lots. The intraday high was 1232, the low was 1206, and the closing price was 1222, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: It was stable with slight fluctuations. The enterprise equipment had a narrow - range change. The third phase of Henan Zhongyuan resumed operation, and the production increased. The downstream trading atmosphere was average, with low purchasing enthusiasm and resistance to high prices, maintaining low - price and just - in - time procurement [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 28 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, the domestic soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. The light soda ash output was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43 percentage points from the previous week. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, up 11.20 percentage points; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, up 1.33 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, up 2.24 percentage points [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5647 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons or 0.51% from last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 844,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 720,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,500 tons [2] - **Demand**: This week, the soda ash enterprise shipment volume was 589,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the cold repair of some glass production lines at the end of last month [2] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit (per two tons) of the co - production method was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%. The price of raw material ore salt was stable during the week, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to higher costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output continues to increase. One glass production line started production yesterday, and the cold - repair pace slowed down, resulting in a slight recovery in the rigid demand for soda ash. In addition, there is some short - term support under continuous losses and positive macro - sentiment [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "short - term shock" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - Currently, the fundamentals of soda ash have slightly improved, with policy expectations having a significant impact. However, due to the continuous release of new production capacity, the market supply - demand outlook is weakening, and short - term prices may fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened high and moved low, weakening within the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a narrowing signal for short - term shocks. The intraday pressure was near the 60 - day moving average, and the support was near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 210,000 lots compared to the previous day, while the open interest increased by 12,386 lots. The intraday high was 1242, the low was 1209, and the closing price was 1212, down 16 yuan/ton or 1.3% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: It was stable with fluctuations. Enterprise equipment was operating stably, and supply remained at a high level. New orders at new prices were average, mostly based on previous orders. Downstream trading was tepid, with low purchasing enthusiasm and resistance to high prices, mainly maintaining low - price procurement [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 38 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. Light soda ash production was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons; heavy soda ash production was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43% from the previous week. The ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, up 11.20% week - on - week; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, up 1.33% week - on - week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, up 2.24% week - on - week [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5647 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons or 0.51% from last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 844,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 720,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,500 tons [2] - **Demand**: This week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15%. Downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash was relatively stable, but at the end of last month, some glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, weakening the rigid demand for heavy soda ash [2] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, while the price of steam coal increased, leading to higher costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current high capacity utilization rate of soda ash, along with the gradual release of new production capacity, has led to a continuous increase in overall output. One glass production line started production today, slowing down the cold - repair rhythm and slightly recovering rigid demand. Additionally, continuous losses and positive macro - sentiment provide some short - term support. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash have slightly improved, but the continuous release of new production capacity weakens the market supply - demand outlook, and short - term prices may fluctuate [4]