Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Market Performance**: This week, the soda ash futures dropped by 4.62%, while the glass futures rose by 2.11%. The soda ash futures continued to decline, with a brief stabilization in the first half - week but a breakdown in the second half due to concerns about increased production and reduced demand from photovoltaic glass. The glass futures initially stabilized after falling below the coal - based production cost but continued to decline due to high inventory and falling second - hand housing prices [7]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, supply increased this week with higher开工率 and output due to natural alkali capacity addition. Next week, the output growth is expected to slow, and cold repairs may increase. Demand is shrinking as glass production lines have one more cold - repair, and photovoltaic glass demand is decreasing. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The futures decline may slow down, and basis regression trading may occur. For glass, supply is at a low level with reduced daily output and weak profit, so the resumption of production may further decline. Demand is weakening as the real - estate situation is not optimistic, and downstream orders are decreasing. The basis regression will continue to dominate trading, but the rebound is limited [7]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For the SA2509 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1120 - 1200, with stop - loss in the range of 1100 - 1220. For the FG2509 contract, trading in the range of 960 - 1060 is suggested, with stop - loss in the range of 930 - 1080 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: Soda ash futures dropped 4.62%, and glass futures rose 2.11%. Soda ash futures showed a breakdown in the second half - week, and glass futures continued to decline after a brief stabilization [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash output may be flat, demand will contract, and prices will face pressure. Glass supply is at a low level, and demand is weakening. The basis regression will continue to influence trading [7]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Specific trading ranges and stop - loss levels are provided for SA2509 and FG2509 contracts [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, soda ash futures prices rose, and glass futures prices fell [9]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Information about SA 9 - 1 and FG 9 - 1 spreads is presented, but no specific analysis of the trends is given [13][15]. - **Basis and Spot Price**: Soda ash spot prices fell, the basis continued to flatten, and futures may stabilize. Glass spot prices fell more than futures, the basis strengthened, and basis regression trading should be noted next week. The soda ash - glass spread continued to weaken due to the over - decline of soda ash [18][23][28]. - **Specific Data**: As of June 13, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the soda ash basis was 53 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1044 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton, and the glass basis was 68 yuan/ton. The glass - soda ash spread was 181 yuan/ton [21][26][28]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Supply**: The domestic soda ash开工率 increased to 85.12% (a 4.13% increase), and the weekly output reached 74.01 tons (a 3.6% increase) due to natural alkali capacity addition [30][35]. - **Profitability**: Soda ash and glass enterprise profits declined. As of June 13, 2025, the theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash by the joint - alkali method was 136 yuan/ton (a decrease of 49 yuan/ton), and the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - alkali method was 20 yuan/ton (a decrease of 8 yuan/ton). The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 182.83 yuan/ton (a decrease of 12.15 yuan/ton), using coal - gas was 80.72 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10.24 yuan/ton), and using petroleum coke was - 128.47 yuan/ton (a decrease of 17.14 yuan/ton) [37][41]. - **Glass Production**: One more glass production line was cold - repaired. As of June 13, 2025, there were 297 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 224 in operation, and 73 cold - repaired. The national float glass output was 109.12 tons, a 0.61% decrease, and it is expected to remain low next week [43][45]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The开工率, capacity utilization rate, and daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass declined. As of June 13, 2025, the开工率 was 69.66% (a 0.7% decrease), the capacity utilization rate was 75.87% (a 0.64% decrease), and the daily melting volume was 98300 tons/day (a decrease of 480 tons/day), and it is expected to continue to decline next week [47][49]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash enterprise inventory increased to 168.63 tons (an increase of 5.93 tons) due to increased production. Glass enterprise inventory decreased slightly to 6968.5 million weight boxes (a decrease of 6. 9 million weight boxes), and future de - stocking may be difficult [51][55]. - **Downstream Demand**: Domestic glass downstream deep - processing orders decreased slightly to an average of 10.35 days as of May 30, 2025. With the coming of summer heat, demand is expected to recover [57][59].