Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. With the fading of policy - positive sentiment, the short - term trend is expected to be mainly weak and fluctuating [2]. 3. Detailed Summaries by Section Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high. Downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, and terminal demand weakens. Soda ash factory inventory is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,255 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,357 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 102 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][33]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increase, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the supply - demand imbalance, with policy - positive sentiment fading, soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The peak summer overhaul season is coming, and production will decline [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high. Downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, reducing demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.95% to 1,357 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped by 4.92% to 1,255 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 104% to - 102 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 22.90 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is 56.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Output**: The weekly industry operating rate is 80.27%, and it is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output is 699,800 tons, with heavy soda ash at 398,700 tons, at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in soda ash production capacity, with 6.4 million tons added in 2023, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and a planned 7.5 million tons in 2025 (actual 1 million tons) [21]. Demand - **Production - Sales Ratio**: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 109.83% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75%. Photovoltaic glass prices are falling, and due to the "anti - involution" policy, production has been cut, and the in - production daily melting volume has dropped significantly [27][30]. Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and is above the 5 - year average [33]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a soda ash annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in effective capacity, output, apparent supply, total demand, and other indicators over the years [34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that there is an increasing signal of production cuts in the photovoltaic glass industry [1] - Some photovoltaic glass companies have established cold repair plans, leading to a projected reduction of nearly 2000 tons per day in production starting from July [1] - An additional cold repair plan is expected to add 2400 tons per day of production cuts in August [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of glass remain weak. With supply declining to a relatively low level and demand in the seasonal off - season, downstream buyers purchase as needed, leading to continuous accumulation of glass factory inventories. It is expected that glass will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1052 yuan/ton to 1039 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.24%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained unchanged at 1056 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from 4 yuan/ton to 17 yuan/ton, a rise of 325.00% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1056 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [11]. Cost - side of Fundamentals - Glass production profit is at a low level, which has led to an increase in cold repairs in the industry, with the number of operating production lines and production volume dropping to historical lows. The national float glass production line has 222 operating lines, with an operating rate of 75.15%, and the daily melting volume is 15.68 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history [21][23]. Demand - side of Fundamentals - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 468.08 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [27][4]. Inventory - side of Fundamentals - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 69.085 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [42]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production and consumption of float glass have shown different trends. For example, in 2021, production increased by 9.88% and consumption increased by 6.87%, while in 2018, production decreased by 3.50% and consumption decreased by 2.64% [43]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continuously declined to a historical low. The photovoltaic glass industry is expected to implement a production - reduction plan, which boosts the market sentiment [3]. - **Negative factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [4].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic glass sector is experiencing a significant rally, with major companies planning to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July to alleviate intense competition and improve supply-demand balance [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The photovoltaic glass index rose by 6.46%, with several stocks, including Dongfang Risen and Kaisheng New Energy, hitting the daily limit [1] - Anticipated production cuts are expected to decrease domestic glass output to around 45GW in July [1] Group 2: Production Cuts - The actual reduction actions began in mid-June, with uncertainty about whether the 30% target will be met [1][2] - Some companies, like Fulete and Tuojin New Energy, have not confirmed participation in the production cuts, indicating a lack of consensus among firms [2][3] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing - Current inventory levels have increased, with typical glass inventory days rising from just over 20 days to around 34 days [2][3] - Photovoltaic glass prices have dropped significantly, with 2.0mm glass averaging 11 CNY/sqm, below the cost line, and a year-on-year decline of 24% [4][6] Group 4: Financial Impact - Major companies are facing substantial profit declines, with Fulete's net profit down 63.52% and other firms like Nanfang A and Jinjing Technology experiencing declines of over 80% [6] - The ongoing price drop has led to losses for several companies, with expectations for recovery contingent on improved component demand and pricing stability [6][7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The recovery of glass prices is dependent on two main factors: the price of soda ash and the stability of component demand, with projections suggesting potential recovery by late August or September [7] - The domestic photovoltaic glass industry holds 90% of global capacity, facing challenges from export policies and a shift towards Southeast Asian markets for future growth [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in high-priced stocks, while the deep-sea technology sector shows strong performance with over 20 stocks hitting the daily limit up [1][2] - A total of 60 stocks reached the daily limit up, with 12 stocks in a continuous rise, and 8 of them achieving three consecutive limit ups, reflecting a progression rate of 53.33% for limit-up stocks [1] - The overall market saw more than 3200 stocks decline, with notable drops in popular stocks such as Changcheng Military Industry, which fell over 7%, and several others hitting the limit down [1] Group 2 - The deep-sea technology sector was particularly strong, with stocks like Kelaite and Shenshui Haina hitting the daily limit up, and others like Daye Intelligent and Guolian Aquatic rising by 20% [1] - The photovoltaic sector continued its upward trend, led by the photovoltaic glass sub-sector, with stocks such as Yamaton and Yaopi Glass also reaching the daily limit up [1][2] - Specific stocks showed varied performance, with Chengbang Co. achieving a five consecutive limit up but experiencing significant fluctuations during trading [1]

Group 1: IPO Activity - A-share IPO activity has surged in the first half of 2025, with a total of 177 companies accepted for listing, marking a significant increase compared to previous years [1] - In June alone, 150 companies were accepted, accounting for over 80% of the total for the first half of the year, setting a new monthly record [1] - The increase is attributed to the gradual easing of the "phase tightening IPO" policy and the withdrawal of non-compliant applications, which has reduced pressure on exchanges and improved acceptance and review efficiency [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that most committee members expect a rate cut later this year, depending on economic data [3] - Following Powell's comments, the probability of a rate cut in July rose to approximately 25%, up from less than 20% previously [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed will restart rate cuts in September, with expected cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry Performance - BYD reported June sales of 382,500 new energy vehicles, up from 341,700 in the same month last year, with a cumulative sales increase of 33.04% year-on-year [8] - Great Wall Motors sold 110,700 vehicles in June, a year-on-year increase of 12.86%, with a total of 197,700 vehicles sold in the first half of the year [8] - Xiaomi's automotive division delivered over 25,000 vehicles in June [8] Group 4: Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, emphasizing the use of healthcare data for drug research [10] - The measures aim to enhance collaboration among healthcare, insurance, and pharmaceutical sectors to facilitate innovative drug development [10] Group 5: Corporate Developments - He Yuan Bio's IPO application has been approved, marking the first company to pass under the newly restarted fifth set of standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [14] - The company plans to raise 2.4 billion yuan for projects including the construction of a human albumin industrialization base and new drug research [14] - Zhongke Environmental announced the acquisition of 100% equity in two environmental companies for a total of 354 million yuan, expanding its waste treatment capabilities [19]

Group 1 - Multiple companies have responded to rumors of production cuts, indicating a potential shift in the market dynamics for glass products [1] - The main futures market for glass has stopped its decline during the night trading session, suggesting a stabilization in prices [1] - Experts believe that if photovoltaic glass manufacturers collectively implement production cuts, it could benefit the recovery of glass prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Market Performance**: This week, the soda ash futures dropped by 4.62%, while the glass futures rose by 2.11%. The soda ash futures continued to decline, with a brief stabilization in the first half - week but a breakdown in the second half due to concerns about increased production and reduced demand from photovoltaic glass. The glass futures initially stabilized after falling below the coal - based production cost but continued to decline due to high inventory and falling second - hand housing prices [7]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, supply increased this week with higher开工率 and output due to natural alkali capacity addition. Next week, the output growth is expected to slow, and cold repairs may increase. Demand is shrinking as glass production lines have one more cold - repair, and photovoltaic glass demand is decreasing. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The futures decline may slow down, and basis regression trading may occur. For glass, supply is at a low level with reduced daily output and weak profit, so the resumption of production may further decline. Demand is weakening as the real - estate situation is not optimistic, and downstream orders are decreasing. The basis regression will continue to dominate trading, but the rebound is limited [7]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For the SA2509 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1120 - 1200, with stop - loss in the range of 1100 - 1220. For the FG2509 contract, trading in the range of 960 - 1060 is suggested, with stop - loss in the range of 930 - 1080 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: Soda ash futures dropped 4.62%, and glass futures rose 2.11%. Soda ash futures showed a breakdown in the second half - week, and glass futures continued to decline after a brief stabilization [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash output may be flat, demand will contract, and prices will face pressure. Glass supply is at a low level, and demand is weakening. The basis regression will continue to influence trading [7]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Specific trading ranges and stop - loss levels are provided for SA2509 and FG2509 contracts [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, soda ash futures prices rose, and glass futures prices fell [9]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Information about SA 9 - 1 and FG 9 - 1 spreads is presented, but no specific analysis of the trends is given [13][15]. - **Basis and Spot Price**: Soda ash spot prices fell, the basis continued to flatten, and futures may stabilize. Glass spot prices fell more than futures, the basis strengthened, and basis regression trading should be noted next week. The soda ash - glass spread continued to weaken due to the over - decline of soda ash [18][23][28]. - **Specific Data**: As of June 13, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the soda ash basis was 53 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1044 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton, and the glass basis was 68 yuan/ton. The glass - soda ash spread was 181 yuan/ton [21][26][28]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Supply**: The domestic soda ash开工率 increased to 85.12% (a 4.13% increase), and the weekly output reached 74.01 tons (a 3.6% increase) due to natural alkali capacity addition [30][35]. - **Profitability**: Soda ash and glass enterprise profits declined. As of June 13, 2025, the theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash by the joint - alkali method was 136 yuan/ton (a decrease of 49 yuan/ton), and the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - alkali method was 20 yuan/ton (a decrease of 8 yuan/ton). The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 182.83 yuan/ton (a decrease of 12.15 yuan/ton), using coal - gas was 80.72 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10.24 yuan/ton), and using petroleum coke was - 128.47 yuan/ton (a decrease of 17.14 yuan/ton) [37][41]. - **Glass Production**: One more glass production line was cold - repaired. As of June 13, 2025, there were 297 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 224 in operation, and 73 cold - repaired. The national float glass output was 109.12 tons, a 0.61% decrease, and it is expected to remain low next week [43][45]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The开工率, capacity utilization rate, and daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass declined. As of June 13, 2025, the开工率 was 69.66% (a 0.7% decrease), the capacity utilization rate was 75.87% (a 0.64% decrease), and the daily melting volume was 98300 tons/day (a decrease of 480 tons/day), and it is expected to continue to decline next week [47][49]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash enterprise inventory increased to 168.63 tons (an increase of 5.93 tons) due to increased production. Glass enterprise inventory decreased slightly to 6968.5 million weight boxes (a decrease of 6. 9 million weight boxes), and future de - stocking may be difficult [51][55]. - **Downstream Demand**: Domestic glass downstream deep - processing orders decreased slightly to an average of 10.35 days as of May 30, 2025. With the coming of summer heat, demand is expected to recover [57][59].