Core Viewpoint - The price of soda ash has stabilized since late July, with market dynamics shifting towards a supply increase and weaker macro expectations, leading to a forecast of a weak price trend in the short term [1] Supply Dynamics - Domestic soda ash market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with a weekly production of 699,800 tons as of July 31, a decrease of 24,000 tons or 3.32% from the previous week [1] - Several soda ash production facilities are set to resume operations in early August, which may lead to an increase in production to approximately 733,600 tons per week [1] - New production capacity exceeding 2 million tons has been added this year, with an additional 3.5 million tons planned for the second half of the year, indicating potential future supply pressure [1] Inventory Trends - As of July 31, total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased to 1.7958 million tons, a decline of 3.69% [2] - The reduction in inventory is attributed to a shift from manufacturer stock to trader warehouses rather than an increase in actual market consumption [2] - Social inventory has increased, indicating that supply pressure may rise as production capacity is gradually released [2] Price Pressure - Recent trading activity has seen new orders for soda ash increase by 50 to 150 yuan, but weak downstream demand has led to a cautious market sentiment [3] - The main contract price for soda ash futures on August 3 closed at 1,247 yuan, down 161 yuan or 11.43% from July 24 [3] - Analysts predict that the soda ash market will continue to operate under pressure due to weak downstream demand, with price estimates ranging from 1,220 to 1,300 yuan [3] Demand Conditions - Overall demand for soda ash remains weak, particularly due to declining production in the photovoltaic glass sector, which affects soda ash usage [4] - The construction sector, a key application area for soda ash through float glass, has seen a 20% year-on-year decline in new housing starts, limiting future demand growth [4] - The profitability of photovoltaic glass is currently negative, further constraining demand for soda ash in the short term [5]