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瑞达期货纯苯市场周报-20260327
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 10:43
Report Title - The report is titled "Pure Benzene Market Weekly Report" dated March 27, 2026 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Affected by the repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the decline in the operating load of domestic and overseas plants, the pure benzene futures fluctuated widely and rose week - on - week. The supply - demand gap is expected to further widen, and the price of the short - term BZ2605 contract is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. In the context of tight supply - demand, the upward price space is expected to be greater than the downward space [6] Section Summaries 1. Weekly Highlights - **Price**: As of March 27, 2026, the main contract BZ2605 of pure benzene closed at 8,880 yuan/ton, up 6.56% from last week's closing price. The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 8,245 yuan/ton, and the main basis was - 635 yuan/ton [6] - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 2.01% week - on - week to 72.57%, and the operating rate of hydrobenzene increased by 6.37% week - on - week to 67.83%. The domestic pure benzene output decreased slightly week - on - week [6] - **Demand**: The operating rates of pure benzene downstream industries changed differently. The operating rate of styrene decreased by 0.51% week - on - week to 69.95%, that of caprolactam increased by 1.64% week - on - week to 78.85%, that of phenol decreased by 0.71% week - on - week to 86.69%, that of aniline increased by 0.25% week - on - week to 88.58%, and that of adipic acid remained stable at 69.5%. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream industries decreased by 0.03% week - on - week to 76.04% [6] - **Inventory**: Affected by the decrease in the arrival of imported resources, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports decreased by 6.60% week - on - week to 26.9 tons [6] - **Profit**: The profit of domestic petroleum benzene increased by 128 yuan/ton week - on - week to 480 yuan/ton [6] - **Outlook**: Domestic petroleum benzene enterprises are undergoing spring inspections one after another. The supply loss of petroleum benzene cannot be offset by the increased production of the hydrobenzene industry. Overseas pure benzene production has decreased due to the interruption of raw material supply in the Middle East. Port inventories are expected to continue to decline. The demand from the five major downstream industries of pure benzene has not changed much, and the supply - demand gap is expected to further widen. The oil price is still disturbed by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The pure benzene futures fluctuated and rose this week [8] - **Spot**: The spot price in East China fluctuated within a range, reporting 8,245 yuan/ton on March 27 [8] - **Regional Spot Prices**: On March 26, the market price of petroleum benzene was 8,000 yuan/ton in North China, 8,500 yuan/ton in South China, 7,965 yuan/ton in Northeast China; the market price of hydrobenzene in Shanxi was 7,750 yuan/ton. The FOB price of pure benzene in South Korea was 1,052 US dollars/ton, and the CFR price of pure benzene in China was 1,061 US dollars/ton [14][19][23] 3. Industry Situation - **Operating Rates** - The operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased week - on - week, while that of hydrobenzene increased week - on - week [28] - The operating rate of styrene decreased week - on - week, and the non - integrated profit decreased [47] - The operating rate of caprolactam increased, and the profit widened [51] - The operating rate of the phenol industry was 86.69% [56] - The operating rate of the aniline industry was 88.58% [60] - The operating rate of the adipic acid industry was 69.5% [64] - **Imports**: In January, the import volume of pure benzene was 39.90 tons; in February, it was 41.53 tons. The import window was closed this week [31] - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene at East China ports decreased week - on - week, and the inventory was at a high level in the same period [35] - **Cost and Profit** - The production cost of petroleum benzene increased week - on - week, and the weekly average profit decreased [38] - The production cost of hydrobenzene increased week - on - week, and the profit increased [43] 4. Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of the pure benzene main contract was reported at 66.17%, and the implied volatility of the main at - the - money options was around 68.2% [68]
格林期货早盘提示:纯苯-20260106
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the BZ2603 futures contract of pure benzene decreased by 5 yuan to 5,405 yuan/ton in the night session on Tuesday. The spot price in the mainstream areas of East China was 5,290 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan month-on-month), and the spot price in Shandong was 5,233 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan month-on-month). Long positions increased by 812 lots to 18,000 lots, and short positions increased by 1,114 lots to 23,100 lots. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the 03 contract reference range of 5,380 - 5,580 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to port arrivals and the transaction price of the US dollar pure benzene market [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The price of the BZ2603 futures contract of pure benzene decreased by 5 yuan to 5,405 yuan/ton in the night session on Tuesday. The spot price in the mainstream areas of East China was 5,290 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan month-on-month), and the spot price in Shandong was 5,233 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan month-on-month). Long positions increased by 812 lots to 18,000 lots, and short positions increased by 1,114 lots to 23,100 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply**: In November, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.918 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.93%. The pure benzene import volume in November was 459,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.4%. In November 2025, the monthly import volume of pure benzene in China was 459,624.998 tons, the cumulative import volume was 5,071,144.069 tons, the monthly import amount was 323.069632 million US dollars, the monthly average import price was 702.90 US dollars/ton, the import volume decreased by 7.48% month-on-month, increased by 5.93% year-on-year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared with the same period last year [2] - **Inventory**: The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 318,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous inventory of 300,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.00%; compared with the inventory of 185,200 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 132,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 71.71%. From December 29 to January 4, the incompletely - counted arrivals were about 25,000 tons, and the pick - up was about 7,000 tons [2] - **Demand**: The styrene operating rate was 70.7%, a month-on-month increase of 1.6%; the phenol operating rate was 78%, a month-on-month increase of 3%; the caprolactam operating rate was 74.1%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%; the aniline operating rate was 62.8%, a month-on-month increase of 1.6%; the adipic acid operating rate was 63.6%, a month-on-month increase of 4%. Caprolactam factories began self - disciplined production cuts, and there was an expected decrease in the monthly demand for pure benzene from December to January. The second production line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam was put into production. The trading volume of pure benzene in Shandong yesterday was in the hundreds, with the low end at 5,225 yuan and the high end at 5,240 yuan [2] - **International Oil Price**: The market believes that after the conflict between the US and Venezuela, it will still take time for Venezuela's production to recover and increase, and international oil prices have risen. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract was at 58.32 US dollars/barrel, up 1.00 US dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 1.74%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract was at 61.76 US dollars/barrel, up 1.01 US dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 1.66%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2602 contract decreased by 9.7 to 426.8 yuan/barrel, and rose 1.3 to 428.1 yuan/barrel in the night session [2] - **News**: According to CCTV News, on January 3, local time, US President Trump said that the US had successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and taken them out of Venezuela. On the same day, a US official said that Venezuelan President Maduro was captured by members of the US military's highest special mission force, the Delta Force, in the early morning of January 3 [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The US attacked Venezuela, but Venezuela's oil facilities were not affected for the time being. After the US "takes over", the medium - to - long - term crude oil supply may increase, which is negative for market sentiment. The pure benzene port in Jiangsu continued to accumulate inventory this week, and the downstream operating rate on the demand side increased. The short - term pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the 03 contract reference range of 5,380 - 5,580 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]