Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in the prices of pure benzene and styrene futures, both rising over 2%, has sparked market interest, raising questions about whether this is a short-term recovery or a signal of a trend reversal, especially given the backdrop of declining oil prices and unchanged fundamentals [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The rebound in "two benzene" prices is attributed to a mismatch in supply and demand, with pure benzene operating at over 80% capacity while downstream utilization has dropped to 69.39%, indicating a weak demand environment [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the rebound is driven by short-term factors, including a reduction in short positions and a temporary supply contraction due to high maintenance levels in styrene production, alongside a low inventory situation post-holiday [2][3]. Cost Factors - The cost support for "two benzene" prices is expected to weaken, as the previous rise in oil prices was largely due to geopolitical risks, and the global economic recovery remains sluggish, limiting oil demand growth [3][4]. - The expectation of increased supply from new refining capacities and imports in the coming months suggests that the long-term supply pressure on pure benzene will persist, despite short-term reductions in production [3][4]. Market Sentiment - Market participants are currently optimistic due to low inventory levels and a potential seasonal increase in styrene production in December, which may support pure benzene demand [4]. - However, the overall sentiment remains cautious, with analysts indicating that the current price rebound does not signify a sustainable change in the supply-demand dynamics, which continue to favor a weak market [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene, plastics, benzene, styrene, PTA, short - fiber, methanol, urea, glass: ☆☆☆ (white star, short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, poor market operability, mainly for observation) [1] - Ethylene, propylene: ★★★ (three - star, clearer multi/empty trend, and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] - Ethylene glycol, PVC, soda ash: ★☆☆ (one - star, biased towards multi/empty, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The main futures contracts of olefins and polyolefins closed down on the day. The spot and futures markets showed different trends. Propylene production enterprises may still have the intention to support prices, while polyethylene and polypropylene face supply increases and weak demand [2]. - The main futures contracts of pure benzene and styrene closed down on the day. Pure benzene has the pressure of high imports and falling demand, and styrene has high - inventory pressure [3]. - The prices of PX and PTA fluctuated and closed up on the day. Ethylene glycol continued to increase positions and decline with supply pressure. Short - fiber may face inventory accumulation in the future, and bottle - chip demand is weakening [5]. - The methanol market is under pressure from high imports and high inventories, and downstream demand is weak. The urea market is in a state of oversupply, with prices oscillating within a range [6]. - PVC is running at a low level due to high supply and weak demand. Caustic soda is expected to run at a low level, and its price may rise if liquid chlorine prices continue to fall [7]. - Soda ash prices are under pressure due to high supply and weakening demand. Glass prices are oscillating strongly, with cost support and potential for inventory reduction [8]. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main futures contracts of olefins closed down. Spot - market propylene production enterprises may support prices. The production of polyethylene and polypropylene is increasing, while demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene oscillated below 5500 yuan/ton. It is under pressure from high imports and falling demand. Styrene is under high - inventory pressure [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated and closed up. Ethylene glycol continued to decline with supply pressure. Short - fiber may face inventory accumulation, and bottle - chip demand is weakening [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices continued to fall due to high imports and high inventories and weak downstream demand. Urea prices oscillated strongly, with agricultural demand providing some support but overall in an oversupply situation [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC is running at a low level due to high supply and weak demand. Caustic soda is expected to run at a low level, and its price may rise if liquid chlorine prices continue to fall [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are under pressure due to high supply and weakening demand. Glass prices are oscillating strongly, with cost support and potential for inventory reduction [8]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the articles is the recent decline in benzene futures prices, with expectations of continued weak performance in the market due to supply and demand dynamics. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 31, benzene futures experienced a decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 5430.0 yuan and closing at 5477.0 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.71% [1] - The short-term outlook for benzene futures (BZ2603) is expected to be volatile, with a projected trading range between 5400 and 5600 yuan [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic benzene production has decreased due to lower operating rates in the downstream industry, while inventory levels have returned to neutral [2] - The supply of benzene is expected to remain high, with an increase in imports and ongoing operational adjustments in production facilities [3] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to maintain a surplus in benzene supply, with downstream demand not sufficiently absorbing the high levels of supply, leading to a continued weak market outlook [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - Overall, the chemical futures market shows a mixed performance with various factors influencing different sectors. Some sectors face supply - related pressures, while others are affected by demand changes and cost factors [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures' main contracts declined. Supply pressure is hard to ease due to expected increases in supply from sources like Haiwei and Yulong. The anticipated increase in propylene volume may suppress spot prices [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts also fell. For polyethylene, domestic supply is increasing while demand has limited impact on price. For polypropylene, supply is abundant and downstream demand only provides limited support [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of unified benzene futures decreased. Short - term sentiment is bearish due to weakening oil prices, and high imports are a mid - term pressure. Attention should be paid to port inventory accumulation [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts declined. High inventory and stable downstream demand with increasing finished - product inventory put long - term pressure on prices [3] Polyester - PX and PTA are relatively strong. There is a short - term positive sentiment, but mid - term PTA may face inventory accumulation without effective measures [4] - Ethylene glycol production is increasing. There is short - term inventory reduction, but mid - term accumulation is expected. It is advisable to short at high prices [4] - Short fiber has a good spot market currently, but may face inventory accumulation again. Bottle chip demand is weakening, and over - capacity is a long - term pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures declined. Port inventory is under pressure and demand is weak, with the market likely to remain in low - level oscillation [5] - Urea prices fell. Supply - demand imbalance persists, but there may be a phased rebound after prices reach a low point [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuated narrowly. Supply may increase, demand is stable, and exports are under pressure. It may operate in a bottom - range [6] - Caustic soda prices weakened. Supply is expected to rise, and downstream demand is average. Futures prices are likely to remain low [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillated. Cost is rising, supply is slightly increasing, and demand is stable. It is advisable to be cautious when shorting near the cost [7] - Glass prices rose. There are signs of improvement in the Shahe spot market, but downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs. Downward movement may be limited [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly indicated [1] - Methanol: Not clearly indicated [1] - Propylene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆★ [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: Not clearly indicated [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The market shows a complex situation with different trends for various chemical products. Short - term and mid - term trends vary, and investment strategies such as anti - arbitrage, long - position allocation, and short - selling at high prices are recommended according to different product characteristics [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with prices at a low level and a strong market wait - and - see mood [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures also rose. For polyethylene, the macro - environment improved, but downstream resistance limited transactions. For polypropylene, trading sentiment improved, but demand from downstream factories was still weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rebounded due to oil price increases. There was a risk of port inventory accumulation in the short - term, and mid - term imports were a major pressure [3] - Styrene futures rose. Although there were rumors of production cuts, high inventory limited the upside [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rebounded with oil prices. The short - term rebound's sustainability depends on oil prices, and mid - term anti - arbitrage is recommended [5] - Ethylene glycol may rebound in the short - term but faces inventory accumulation pressure in the mid - term [5] - Short fiber is recommended for long - position allocation, while bottle chip demand weakens and is mainly driven by cost [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices may fluctuate within a range in the short - term and tend to rise in the medium - to - long - term [6] - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate strongly within a range in the short - term [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC supply may increase, and it may operate at the bottom range [7] - Caustic soda may operate at a low level within a range [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is recommended for short - selling at high prices after a rebound [8] - Glass prices may have limited downward movement, and selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, plastic, PX, PTA, and benzene ethylene are rated ★☆★, indicating a moderately bullish trend [1]. - PVC, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle chips are rated ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend [1]. - Urea, methanol, and glass are rated ☆☆☆, meaning a neutral trend with low operability [1]. - Caustic soda and soda ash are rated ☆☆☆, also indicating a neutral state [1]. Core Views - In the chemical market, different chemical products show various trends. Some are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and downstream demand, with short - term and medium - term outlooks varying [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of propylene futures continued to rise. Propylene prices remained stable at a low level, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market [2]. - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures oscillated upwards. For polyethylene, the macro - environment improved, but downstream resistance to price increases led to slower trading. For polypropylene, the trading sentiment improved, but downstream demand had no obvious improvement [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Boosted by oil prices, the pure benzene futures price continued to rebound, and the spot price in East China also recovered. In the short term, concerns about supply contraction and oil price rebounds led to increased downstream purchases, while high imports remained a medium - term pressure [3]. - The main contract of styrene futures continued to rise. Driven by oil prices, styrene showed a short - term strong trend, but high inventory suppressed its upward space [3]. Polyester - The sharp rebound in oil prices provided impetus for PX and PTA. The textile market improved, but PTA was expected to face inventory accumulation in the medium term. Ethylene glycol might rebound in the short term but had medium - term inventory pressure. Short - fiber was expected to continue a bullish trend, while bottle chips faced weakening demand [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - The main contract of methanol rose slightly. The port inventory was high, and it might oscillate in the short term and tend to be stronger in the medium - to - long - term. The urea futures price continued to rise slightly, with improved supply - demand margins and cost support [6]. Chlor - Alkali - The supply of PVC was expected to increase, with stable domestic demand and good export in September. It might operate in the bottom - range. The supply of caustic soda fluctuated slightly, with inventory decline in non - aluminum downstream, and it might operate at a low - range [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash industry had a slight inventory reduction, but supply remained high. It was advisable to short at high levels after a rebound. The glass price continued to fall, with inventory accumulation, and its downward range was expected to be limited [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Propylene, Plastic, PVC: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for an upward/downward trend, but poor operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pure Benzene, Short Fiber: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1][5] - Styrene: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for an upward/downward trend, but poor operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Soda Ash, Glass: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] Core View of the Report - The prices of most chemical products in the market are under pressure, with some showing downward trends and some in a state of weak shocks. The supply and demand situation of different products varies, and short - term and medium - term trends are affected by multiple factors such as cost, supply, demand, and external market conditions [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated widely around the 5 - day moving average. The price hit a new low this year, but the market trading atmosphere improved. Plastic and polypropylene futures fluctuated. Polyethylene had a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, with cost support weakening and supply pressure. Polypropylene faced increased supply and weak downstream demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices oscillated at a low level, with inventory rising and import pressure remaining. Month - spread reverse arbitrage was recommended. Styrene futures prices continued to decline, with cost support weakening and short - term supply - demand improvement having limited impact on prices [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices continued to be weak, with PTA having a stockpiling expectation. Ethylene glycol lacked substantial positive factors in the short term. Short fiber was a short - term long - position allocation, while bottle chips faced long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol in coastal areas might show different inventory trends, with short - term shocks and a medium - to - long - term upward trend. Urea market supply and demand remained loose, and the short - term market would continue to oscillate within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC might show a weak downward trend, with supply increasing and future export facing pressure. For caustic soda, short - selling should be cautious due to unfalsified downstream replenishment demand and a high basis [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continued to decline, with high supply pressure. Glass continued to weaken, but the decline was expected to be limited due to low valuation [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate weakly. The international oil price faces medium - and long - term pressure due to OPEC's production increase and the slowdown of global economic growth, but the Russia - Ukraine conflict remains highly uncertain. The short - term downward trend of BZ2603 may continue, but the decline space may be limited as the 6 - day RSI enters the oversold range below 20 [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene was 5461 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan; the main settlement price was 5535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan. The main trading volume was 8145 lots, an increase of 1292 lots; the main open interest was 15376 lots, an increase of 1387 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5575 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North China market, it was 5290 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 5615 - 5650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northeast region, it was 5400 - 5416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 - 28 yuan. The offshore intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea was 676 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China was 684.32 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.63 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 61.1 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.03 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 537 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.5 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 43.8 tons, a decrease of 2.22 tons. The terminal port inventory of pure benzene was 9 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons. The production cost was 5327.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 71.88%, a decrease of 1.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, an increase of 6.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 78.54%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 69.24%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 64.3%, an increase of 2 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From October 11th to 17th, the capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 3.81% to 75.48%, and that of hydrobenzene decreased by 0.85% to 62.39%. The weighted开工率 of pure benzene downstream decreased by 2.35% to 75.37%. As of October 20th, the pure benzene inventory in East China ports was 9.9 tons, a 10% increase from last week. From October 10th to 16th, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 33 yuan/ton to 347 yuan/ton [2]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance on October 20, with significant movements in various commodities [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Live pig prices increased by over 3% [1] - Coking coal prices rose by more than 2% [1] - Other commodities such as coke, apples, international copper, Shanghai copper, and industrial silicon saw increases of over 1% [1] Group 2: Declines in Prices - Shanghai silver prices fell by more than 3% [1] - Prices of polysilicon, pure benzene, and styrene dropped nearly 2% [1]