Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the long - short contradictions in the nickel market are in balance, and nickel prices may continue to fluctuate within a range. However, if the contradictions on either side intensify in the fourth quarter, it will further increase the volatility of Shanghai nickel. For stainless steel, short - term steel prices lack upward drivers but do not have the basis for a sharp decline, and the long - term strategy of buying on dips has better cost - effectiveness [1][2]. Summary According to Related Contents Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: Indonesian nickel mine contradictions have increased market concerns, while the steep accumulation of refined nickel inventory and weak expectations have put pressure on prices. The takeover of part of the Weda Bay Nickel mine and the suspension of 190 mining companies in Indonesia may affect the supply. However, the global refined nickel inventory has increased steeply, and the market expects a slowdown in implicit restocking. The nickel surplus is mainly in the pure nickel segment, showing a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 959 tons to 40,440 tons, with a decrease in warehouse receipt and spot inventory and unchanged bonded area inventory. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,680 tons to 230,124 tons [4]. - **Market News**: There are multiple pieces of news related to Indonesia, including plans to shorten mining quota periods, government - approved RKAB production, suspension of some nickel - iron production lines due to losses, requirements for resubmitting 2026 RKAB, and crackdowns on illegal mining. Also, China has suspended a non - official subsidy for importing copper and nickel from Russia [5][7][8]. Stainless Steel Market - **Fundamentals**: The short - term supply - demand logic and long - term "cost - performance trading" are in a game, and steel prices currently lack a clear trend. The demand side is suppressed by tariff pressure and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, while the supply side has seen an expected increase in production after valuation repair [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of September 25, SMM stainless steel factory inventory was 1.549 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%; SMM stainless steel social inventory was 0.909 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 1%; the total social inventory of stainless steel monitored by Steel Union was 0.984 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3% and a month - on - month decrease of 0% [4]. - **Market News**: There are news such as a steel mill in Shandong reducing production due to capacity limitations and an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspending part of its production lines [5][6]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,380, down 1,610; the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,840, down 90. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 163,560, down 13,470; the trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 262,187, up 81,878 [9]. - **Industry Chain**: Data on 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium and discount, nickel bean premium and discount, and other indicators are provided, as well as data on the stainless steel and nickel - related industry chain such as high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread, and nickel plate import profit [9].