| 作者：陈琳萱 | 研究助理：王若颜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号：F03108575 | 从业资格证号：F03134422 | | 交易咨询证号：Z0021508 | 联系方式：wangruoyan@zjtfqh.com | | 邮箱：chenlinxuan@zjtfqh.com | 审核：李文涛 | | 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 | 观点小结 镍&不锈钢 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 7 势势势势 | 镍 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 中性 | 当前市场焦点转向2026年的RKAB配额审批，印尼矿业协会预计相关流程将在未来三个月内完成。鉴于政策执行存在弹性，需警惕配额实际落地情 | | 核心观点 | 偏多 | 况与市场预期之间的偏差。总体来看，当前镍价借力于供应端的政策约束，有望暂时摆脱现实压力，但随着投机资金推动价格冲高至过度乐观区 | | | | 间，镍价或将接受基本面验证。 | | 镍矿价格 | 中性 | 截至1月6日，菲律宾红土镍矿0.9%、1.5%、1.8%CIF价格环比上周分别持平于2 ...

1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 光期研究 镍 & 不 锈 钢 月 度 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 6 年 1 月 镍&不锈钢：关注政策落地情况 p 2 镍&不锈钢：关注政策落地情况 总 结 1、供给：印尼镍矿升贴水维持25.5美元/湿吨，菲律宾镍矿1.5%镍矿升水上涨1美元/湿吨至9.0美元/湿吨。2026年1月精炼镍产量预计环比增加35.8%至3.72万吨；国内镍 铁产量环比下降1%至2.1万镍吨。近期镍铁招标/成交价格上涨，华南某钢厂高镍铁询盘910元/镍（舱底含税），MHP、高冰镍现货均价上涨，交易活跃度增加，硫酸 镍成本上涨，硫酸镍即期利润亏损。 2、需求：新能源方面，2026年1月三元前驱体产量预计环比下降2%至83260吨；三元材料产量预计环比下降4.43%至78180吨；2026年1月三元动力电池产量预计环比下降 6.15%至28.7GWh；乘联会预计2026年1月车市迎开门红，新能源车1季度有望微增5%，环比25年4季度降36%。不锈钢方面，全国主流市场不锈钢89仓库口径社会总库存 97.7万吨，周 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 28 日 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 本轮资金面对镍与不锈钢的关注度提高，本质在于消息面的变化，主要包括：印尼镍矿配额的 2.5 亿 吨目标，以及考虑将伴生矿物，如钴，纳入计价和征税体系，具体来看： 1）配额事件：印尼政府敦促企业重新提交了 2026 年 RKAB 预算，市场公开消息称印尼希望可以削减 至 2.5 亿吨镍矿配额。根据我们测算，预计 2024-2026 年印尼镍矿需求为 2.5、2.8 和 3.0 亿吨，如果 2.5 亿吨的配额落地，矿端紧缺可能倒逼冶炼端减产，从而将过剩预期扭转为紧缺，并对存量的高库存形 成较大冲击。不过，从印尼"下游政策"的角度来看，矿端立刻的"一刀切"，易于激化与下游外资冶炼 企业的矛盾，而且从往年来看，印尼的政策动态调整空间较大，2026Q1 将是跟踪政策落地的重要窗口。 不过，如果放眼到长周期，印尼长线防止过剩和偏挺价的心态是明确的，前期低价矿时代主要为吸引冶炼 投资为主，但在冶 ...

继不久前上榜2025年全省首批人工智能赋能制造业典型案例名单，加西贝拉压缩机有限公司此次又上榜 省级人工智能应用标杆企业。以"AI+全价值链"深度改造，重塑企业核心竞争力，加西贝拉现有工业设 备2920台，数控化率达81.85%，2024年企业人工智能相关投入千万元，组建了11名高学历人才构成的 AI核心团队，自主研发"虹犀"工业元模型，衍生出外观质检、工艺优化、计划排产、预测维护四大场景 小模型，实现生产全生命周期健康管理。此外，加西贝拉打通研发、生产、供应链、服务全环节数据， 构建"PLM+MES+ERP"协同体系，每年管理超300个研发项目，设计周期缩短20%，为家电行业智能化 转型树立标杆。 借助AI之"手"加速生物医药临床试验全流程智能化，易迪希医药科技（嘉兴）有限公司此次入选省级人 工智能服务商，其核心业务聚焦临床研究数字化解决方案。通过持续深化对人工智能技术的探索与应 用，易迪希积极拓展"AI+临床试验服务"的创新路径，引入以DeepSeek为核心的多个前沿大模型，成功 将其与Clinflash平台深度融合，完成了平台核心的智能化升级，并覆盖临床数据管理、医学编码、试验 文档管理、药物警戒等临床 ...

撰稿：史玥明 从业资格：F03097365 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 周五，沪镍一改此前低迷格局，领涨国内有色系，盘中最大涨幅超3%，品种换月动作加快。消息面来 看，印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）透露，2026 年工作计划和预算（RKAB）中提出的镍矿石产量或将约为 2.5 亿吨，较 2025 年 RKAB 中 3.79 亿吨的产量目标大幅下降；APNI披露，能源与矿产资源部计划于 2026 年初修订镍商品的矿产基准价格（HPM）计算公式。据 APNI 透露，此次修订的重点之一在于， 政府将开始把镍伴生矿物（如钴）作为独立矿种加以计价，并对其征收版税。成本抬升预期推动镍价今 日反弹，后续继续关注印尼政策变动的落地情况。 基本面来看，传统产业链方面，镍铁价格维稳，不锈钢现货市场成交氛围好转，全国主流市场不锈钢89 仓库口径社会总库存106.36万吨，周环比下降1.55%。新能源产业链方面，原料受镍价下行叠加年终将 至，低价货出现进一步拖累价格中枢，同时，需求边际转弱，12月三元前驱体排产环比下降。国内一级 镍库存累库再现。因此，镍元素基本面过剩格局未改，偏弱的需求及较高的库存 ...

镍&不锈钢 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 0 3 探探探探探探 | 作者：陈琳萱 | 研究助理：王若颜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号：F03108575 | 从业资格证号：F03134422 | | 交易咨询证号：Z0021508 | 联系方式：wangruoyan@zjtfqh.com | | 邮箱：chenlinxuan@zjtfqh.com | 审核：李文涛 | | 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 | 观点小结 | 镍 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 十一月纯镍产量环比骤降28.13%，此前盘面的快速下探对供应端的减产效应得以充分显现，镍价估值环比修复，但尚未收复前期跌幅，中长期逻 | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 辑仍受基本面因素压制。展望四季度，矿端成本刚性与印尼RKAB审批进程的不确定性形成双重支撑，限制镍价进一步深跌，但下游需求的现实矛 | | | | 盾尚未解决，上行驱动仍显乏力。 | | 镍矿价格 | 中性 | 截至12月1日，菲律宾红土镍矿0.9%、1.5%、1.8%CIF价格环比上周 ...

2025年12月07日 国泰君安期货研究周报 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 观点与策略 | 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 | 2 | | 工业硅：新疆环保消息发酵，关注实际减产 | 11 | | 多晶硅：预计下周盘面波动放大 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：现实环比走弱叠加预期充分计价，锂价上方承压 | 20 | | 棕榈油：短期技术反弹，等待产量拐点确认 | 28 | | 豆油：美豆驱动有限，区间震荡运行 | 28 | | 豆粕：若无意外利多，盘面偏弱 | 34 | | 豆一：现货偏强，盘面偏弱 | 34 | | 玉米：或有回调 | 39 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 45 | | 棉花：涨势放缓 | 52 | | 生猪：弱势难改，基差逻辑回归 | 59 | | 花生：关注现货 | 65 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 07 日 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 张再宇 投资咨询从业资 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 07 日 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 库存跟踪： 1）精炼镍：12 月 5 日中国社会库存增加 262 吨至 54978 吨。其中，仓单库存增加 1455 吨至 34764 吨；现货库存减少 1193 吨至 16444 吨，保税区库存持平至 3770 吨。LME 镍库存减少 1644 吨至 253116 吨。 2）新能源：11 月 28 日 SMM 硫酸镍上游、下游、一体化产线库存天数月环比变化+1、0、0 至 5、9、 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：镍过剩结构性变化，预计镍价暂稳运行。精炼镍边际转向供需双弱格局，市场普遍预期 隐性补库放缓，耐腐合金需求承压，叠加镍合金端使用镍铁取代镍板的比例有所提高，但前期重心下移挤 压精炼镍利润，不少企业转向硫酸镍生产，精炼镍累库矛盾稍有所缓和，本周全球显性库存小幅微降。这 也将精炼镍过剩压力结构性转向，硫酸镍与盘面溢价回归收敛。不过，总量过剩矛盾与湿法投产预期或仍 然拖累镍价。远端低成本湿法 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - **Nickel**: In 2025, LME and SHFE nickel prices showed a downward trend throughout the year. The core issue was the exacerbation of supply - demand imbalance. Currently, nickel prices are at a 5 - year low, and the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: In 2025, stainless steel prices generally followed the trend of nickel prices, showing a downward trend. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was difficult to reverse. Currently, stainless steel prices are at a 5 - year low, and the downward space is expected to be limited [13]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Trends - Nickel and stainless steel prices first rose and then fell in 2025, and have now dropped to a 5 - year low. In 2026, both are expected to show a situation of weak supply and demand [1][5]. 2. Nickel Ore - **Indonesia**: In 2025, there were many disturbances in Indonesia. The nickel ore price first rose and then fell. The RKAB total approval volume increased, but the actual production was far lower than the approved quota. It is expected that the RKAB approval volume will decline in 2026 [31][34]. - **Philippines**: In 2025, the nickel ore price showed a "high - level shock - seasonal decline - rainy - season support - weak stability" pattern. The export volume to Indonesia increased significantly, and it is expected to continue to grow throughout the year [36][37]. - **Sulfide Nickel Ore**: After the clearance of high - cost production capacity in 2024, the supply of overseas sulfide nickel ore has gradually stabilized [40]. 3. Refined Nickel - **Production**: From January to November 2025, domestic refined nickel production increased by 21.8% year - on - year. The import volume from Russia and Norway increased significantly [44]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, 2025, the global nickel inventory reached a 5 - year high. The main reason was the intensification of the supply - demand contradiction [48]. 4. Nickel Intermediates and Nickel Sulfate - **Nickel Intermediates**: In 2025, the production and price of MHP and high - nickel matte both increased. It is expected that the price of MHP will face downward pressure in the second quarter of 2026 [51][52]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: From January to October 2025, the production decreased by about 10% year - on - year. In the long term, the price is expected to continue to be weak [57][58]. 5. Ferronickel - **Production**: From January to October 2025, the total production of China and Indonesia increased by 11.6% year - on - year. Indonesia's supply proportion continued to rise [64]. - **Price**: In 2025, the ferronickel price fluctuated greatly and is currently close to the cost line. It is expected that the price will continue to decline in the short term, but the downward space is limited [69]. 6. Stainless Steel - **Capacity and Production**: In 2025, the capacity continued to be released, and the supply increased steadily. The export volume remained stable, while the import volume decreased significantly [75][76]. - **Inventory**: The stainless steel inventory remained at a high level and showed a trend of re - accumulation [88]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost remained stable, and it was still difficult for the profit to turn positive in the short term [90][91]. 7. Terminal Demand - **Traditional Sectors**: In 2025, the real estate sector was sluggish, while the home appliance industry was outstanding. Overall, the demand showed a downward trend [94][95]. - **Lithium - Battery Industry**: The production of new - energy vehicles increased rapidly, driving nickel consumption. However, the proportion of ternary batteries continued to decline [101][102]. 8. Supply - Demand Balance - **Nickel**: In 2026, the oversupply of primary nickel is expected to shrink slightly [106][107]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel industry will improve the current supply - demand pattern under policy guidance, and the oversupply in China is expected to shrink in 2026 [112][113].

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang Z0002220 [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views Bullish Factors - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is continuously tight due to the rainy season, providing support at the cost end [3] - Some domestic ferronickel enterprises are undergoing maintenance, leading to an expected partial contraction in supply [3] Bearish Factors - The demand for downstream stainless steel is weak, with low procurement enthusiasm for raw materials [3] - The new production capacity of electrolytic nickel continues to be released, and the overall supply pressure remains [3] Trading Advisory Views - It is recommended to closely monitor the consumption of downstream stainless steel and the destocking of inventories to judge whether the demand side can be effectively improved [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - The latest values of Shanghai Nickel main contract, consecutive one, consecutive two, and consecutive three are 116,900 yuan/ton, 116,900 yuan/ton, 117,110 yuan/ton, and 117,320 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 1.19%, 2.50%, 2.52%, and 2.52% [4] - LME Nickel 3M is at 14,840 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.44% [4] - The trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts decreased by 34.55%, 13.4%, and 0.70% respectively [4] Stainless Steel Futures - The latest values of stainless steel main contract, consecutive one, consecutive two, and consecutive three are 12,410 yuan/ton, 12,410 yuan/ton, 12,480 yuan/ton, and 12,540 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 1%, 0.98%, 0.89%, and 0.84% [5] - The trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts decreased by 14.16%, 25.08%, and 2.23% respectively [5] Spot Prices - The latest prices of Jinchuan Nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel are 121,300 yuan/ton, 117,050 yuan/ton, 119,000 yuan/ton, 119,100 yuan/ton, and 116,750 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 0.61%, 0.64%, 0.71%, 0.63%, and 0.76% [5] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 52,259 tons, a decrease of 855 tons; LME nickel inventory is 255,450 tons, an increase of 930 tons [7] - Stainless steel social inventory is 946 tons, an increase of 6 tons; ferronickel inventory is 30,225 tons, an increase of 661 tons [7] Charts and Graphs - The report includes multiple charts and graphs showing the historical prices, production, and inventory data of nickel and stainless steel, such as the price trends of Shanghai Nickel and LME Nickel, the production of Chinese refined nickel, and the inventory of domestic social nickel and LME nickel [8][14][15]