本周菲律宾镍矿价格暂稳。菲律宾到中国菲律宾红土镍矿NI1.3%CIF价格为41~43美元/湿吨， NI1.4%CIF价格为49~51美元/湿吨，NI1.5%CIF价格为56~58美元/湿吨。本周菲律宾所有装点均有降 雨，装运条件仍不理想。不过，随着发运量进入高峰，镍矿港口库存持续增加，供应充足。 沪镍窄幅波动，主力合约收跌0.3%，报119830元/吨。7月国内镍矿、镍铁与精炼镍进口显著提升，国内 镍元素供应显著上升。美联储7月纪要释放鹰派信号，海外风偏持续收缩，基本面和宏观面均缺乏明显 驱动，沪镍延续震荡格局。 对于后市，金瑞期货评论表示，当前镍产业矛盾集中于不锈钢市场表现，"不锈钢-镍矿-一级镍"的压力 传导路径决定了一级镍的成本中枢位置，近期不锈钢在修复至13000附近后持续回调，市场情绪再度悲 观，我们判断库存和供给压力仍在。展望后市，不锈钢传统旺季需求表现有待观察，主要关注龙头钢厂 出货节奏，镍价短期缺乏驱动，整体维持偏弱判断。 近期镍价小幅下跌，下游企业入场采购有所增加，精炼镍现货交投尚可。各品牌精炼镍现货升贴水多持 稳，金川及俄镍资源现货升贴水小幅上涨。目前不锈钢下游需求仍偏弱，虽然国内不锈钢企 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and US tariff agreements impact metal prices. After the nickel price followed the anti - involution sentiment and declined, the industry chain's continuous losses still provide strong cost support. The fundamentals have changed little, with pure nickel remaining in an oversupply situation. In August, the production schedules of domestic electrowinning nickel and Indonesian secondary nickel continued to rise. During the traditional off - season, downstream demand was sluggish. Although there was an expectation of increased stainless - steel production in August, there were many disturbances from production cuts and maintenance due to policies, and the spot market transactions were weak. The improvement in the ternary industry chain was limited, with the growth rate of electric vehicle retail sales slowing down in July and the market share of ternary batteries being continuously squeezed by lithium iron phosphate. As the rainy season was coming to an end, nickel ore port inventories continued to accumulate, and there was an expectation of a decline in ore prices [10]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 01 Viewpoint and Strategy - **Main Viewpoints**: Macro factors and cost support affect nickel price; fundamentals show oversupply, and downstream demand is weak during the off - season [10]. - **Industry News**: In July 2025, GEM's Indonesian nickel project produced over 10,000 tons of nickel in a single month. Some steel mills actively controlled production in response to the national "anti - involution" policy, and northern steel mills planned maintenance from late August to early September [10]. - **Important Data**: This week, LME nickel inventory increased by 3150 tons, domestic inventory increased by 745 tons, and global visible nickel inventory increased by 1.57% to 253,000 tons. Indonesia's August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price rose by $0.2 - 0.3, with a premium of +24 as the mainstream. In July, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.74%, and the estimated production in August was 37,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.45%. In August, domestic stainless - steel production was scheduled to be 3.3041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.64% [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: For nickel, due to the increasing production capacity of Indonesian secondary nickel and domestic electrowinning nickel and the slowdown in off - season demand growth, the oversupply situation is expected to continue. In the long - term, the oversupply of nickel is difficult to reverse. In the short - term, affected by macro sentiment and cost support, it is expected that SHFE nickel will fluctuate in the range of [117,000, 125,000] yuan/ton, and a sell - on - rally strategy is recommended. For stainless steel, the current anti - involution production cuts still support the stainless - steel market. However, in the long - term, the oversupply will suppress price increases. It is expected that SHFE stainless steel will fluctuate in the range of [12,300, 13,200] yuan/ton, and short - selling is recommended when the price rebounds to the upper end of the range [10]. 02盘面回顾 - Nickel prices continued to fluctuate, and relevant data on domestic liquidity positions, spot premiums, and price differences between the two markets were presented [12][13]. 03 Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: Nickel ore ports saw inventory accumulation, and ore prices remained stable. The mainstream transaction price of 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines was mostly CIF42, and that from the Philippines to Indonesia was mostly CIF41. Indonesia's August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price rose by $0.2 - 0.3 [16][17]. - **Nickel Iron**: In July, the total production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia was 178,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35% and a year - on - year increase of 20.61%. The market quotation for nickel iron was firm, with the mainstream price ranging from 930 - 940 yuan/nickel [21]. - **Intermediate Products**: In July, nickel intermediate products increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 54,400 tons. The price followed the increase in nickel prices, the production cost of nickel sulfate increased, and the loss situation worsened [25]. - **Imports**: In June, nickel iron imports increased significantly, while intermediate product imports decreased [28]. - **Inventory**: This week, LME inventory increased by 3150 tons to 212,200 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 745 tons to 39,300 tons. Spot transactions were generally cold [32]. - **Electrowinning Nickel**: In July, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.74% and a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. The estimated production in August was 37,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.45%. There were also detailed plans for domestic and Indonesian electrowinning nickel projects [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Some steel mills planned production cuts and maintenance. The loss of integrated production narrowed, and the economic efficiency of scrap stainless steel became more prominent. Stainless - steel inventory continued to decline, but the social inventory was still high. Demand was weak due to the real - estate downturn and the traditional off - season [40][44][51]. - **Ternary Industry Chain**: In August, the production of lithium batteries increased, and the production of the ternary industry chain also increased, but the improvement in demand was limited [56]. - **Electric Vehicles**: In the first half of the year, domestic electric vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively, with a sales penetration rate of 44.3%. The share of ternary batteries was squeezed by lithium iron phosphate [60]. 04 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The global nickel supply surplus is expected to expand year - on - year. In 2025E, the total supply is estimated to be 389.3 million tons, while the total demand is 354.5 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 34.8 million tons. In China, the supply surplus is also expected to be 16.2 million tons in 2025 [70].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Short - term nickel and stainless - steel prices are weakened by market sentiment. The overall fundamentals change little. There is support from nickel - iron and intermediate product prices at the lower end and demand suppression at the upper end, so they still show a volatile trend [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Monthly changes:沪镍 fell 1.2%, LME nickel fell 2.1%, nickel - iron prices rose, and nickel sulfate prices fell slightly. Stainless - steel spot prices generally increased, and the spot premium rose 220 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton [5][57] - Specific price data: For example,沪镍 dropped from 121,220 yuan/ton to 119,770 yuan/ton; LME nickel decreased from 15,340 dollars/ton to 15,020 dollars/ton [6] 3.2 Supply - **Nickel - related supply** - Nickel ore: The price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore 1.2% decreased by 0.2 dollars/wet ton to 24.8 dollars/wet ton, 1.6% remained at 52.1 dollars/wet ton. Indonesian nickel ore premium dropped 1 dollar/wet ton to 24 dollars/wet ton, and Philippine nickel ore 1.5% stayed at 7 dollars/wet ton [4][5][18] - Refined nickel: In August, the production is expected to increase 2% month - on - month to 33,000 tons [4][5] - Nickel - iron: The market was inactive, and the transaction price center shifted slightly upward [4][5][21] - Intermediate products: Spot prices declined slightly, and market activity remained stable [4][5][24] - Nickel sulfate: In August, the production is expected to drop 3% month - on - month to 28,349 nickel tons [4][5][29] - **Stainless - steel supply** - In July 2025, the estimated crude - steel output of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants was 3.2302 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 61,400 tons (1.87%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. In August, the planned output is 3.3041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.64% [4][57][71] 3.3 Demand - **Stainless - steel demand** - Inventory: The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased 429 tons to 103,000 tons month - on - month. The total social inventory of 89 warehouses in the national mainstream stainless - steel market decreased 7,000 tons to 1.111 million tons week - on - week, with the 300 - series increasing 7,000 tons to 677,000 tons [4][57][64] - Consumption: According to the production schedule report of three major white goods released by Industrial Online, the total planned production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August 2025 is 26.97 million units, a 4.9% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [4][57][82] - **New - energy demand** - Ternary precursor: In August, the production is expected to increase 5% month - on - month to 76,160 tons [4][5][41] - Ternary material: In August, the production is expected to increase 3% month - on - month to 70,750 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased 53 tons to 16,499 tons [4][5][43] - Power cells: The weekly cell production decreased 0.5% to 22.57 Wh, with lithium - iron increasing 0.5% to 15.66 GWh and ternary decreasing 2.7% to 6.91 GWh [4][5][46] - New - energy vehicles: From July 1st to 20th, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 514,000 units, a 25% year - on - year increase and a 12% decrease compared to the previous month; the retail volume was 537,000 units, a 23% year - on - year increase and a 12% decrease compared to the previous month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 54.9%, and the wholesale penetration rate of new - energy manufacturers was 53.6% [4][5][51] 3.4 Inventory - Nickel inventory: During the week, LME inventory increased 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons;沪镍 inventory decreased 331 tons to 21,374 tons, social inventory decreased 795 tons to 39,486 tons, and bonded - area inventory increased 500 tons to 5,200 tons [5][12][16] - Stainless - steel inventory: As mentioned above, the warehouse - receipt and social inventory of stainless - steel changed as described in the demand section [4][57][64] 3.5 Cost - profit - Stainless - steel: Raw material prices were stable, while finished - product prices fluctuated greatly. The profit margins of stainless - steel smelting, cold - rolling 304, and hot - rolling 304 were also presented in relevant charts [57][80] 3.6 Supply - demand Balance - Nickel: There are charts showing the supply - demand balance of primary nickel and nickel sulfate [53][54][56] - Stainless - steel: There is a chart presenting the supply - demand balance of Chinese stainless - steel [91][92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel have changed little, and they are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The supply - surplus pattern of refined nickel persists, and the supply - demand surplus situation of stainless steel is also difficult to change. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for both nickel and 304 stainless steel [1][5][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Cost - In July, the premium of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore remained at $24 - 26 per wet ton, with the base price slightly down by 0.2%. Due to weak demand, the price of nickel ore from the Surigao mining area in the Philippines continued to decline. The CIF price of NI1.3% from the Philippines to China dropped to $42 - 44 per wet ton, and NI1.5% dropped to $57 - 59 per wet ton. The costs of various refining nickel processes fluctuated slightly, with the cost of externally purchased nickel sulfate and MHP at about 133,000 yuan per ton, the cost of high - grade nickel matte and laterite nickel ore high - grade nickel matte integration at about 126,000 yuan per ton, and the cost of laterite nickel ore MHP integration at about 105,000 yuan per ton [2][7]. Supply - In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative production was 210,349 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41.50%. The estimated production in July was 36,745 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.46% and a year - on - year increase of 26.62%. From January to June 2025, Indonesia's cumulative refined nickel production was 33,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 59.15%. The estimated production in July was 7,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.54% and a year - on - year increase of 114.29% [3][56]. Consumption - In June 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 33,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.19% and a year - on - year increase of 80.62%. From January to June, the cumulative consumption was 167,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 64.41%. The stainless steel production schedule in July was 3.3623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91%, among which the 300 - series was 1.7912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [4]. Inventory - As of August 1, the global visible inventory of refined nickel was 253,000 tons, including 209,000 tons in LME inventory and 39,500 tons in domestic social inventory, a decrease of 796 tons compared with July 25 [4]. Valuation - In the short term, the cost support at the mine end is weakened due to the low utilization rate of the RKAB quota in Indonesia (only 120 million tons in the first half of the year) and the decline in the price of Philippine nickel ore. In the long term, the pattern of industrial over - supply remains unchanged. Although Norilsk Nickel has lowered its 2025 production guidance to 196,000 - 204,000 tons, the annual surplus is still estimated to be 120,000 tons. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate in the range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan [4]. View and Strategy - The recent market sentiment has cooled down. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is around 123,000 - 125,000 yuan, and the lower limit is around 117,000 - 118,000 yuan. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations [5][6]. 304 Stainless Steel Variety Cost - Similar to nickel ore costs in the nickel variety, the cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel is about 12,800 yuan per ton. The cost of Indonesian ferronickel is 920 - 930 yuan per nickel, and the domestic cost is 1,020 - 1,025 yuan per nickel. The price of high - carbon ferrochrome has dropped to 7,700 - 7,900 yuan per 50 - base ton [7]. Supply - In July 2025, the crude steel production of 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 3.2916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95% and a year - on - year increase of 0.09%, among which the 300 - series was 1.744 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28%. The estimated production in August is expected to rebound to 3.3623 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.14%, and the 300 - series is 1.7912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.71% [7]. Consumption - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of domestic stainless steel was 2.7807 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.42% and a year - on - year increase of 1.60%. The estimated export volume in July was 380,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.0%, and the impact of the US tariff policy is gradually emerging [7]. Inventory - According to Mysteel data on July 31, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the national mainstream markets (89 - warehouse caliber) was 1,111,189 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.66%. Among them, the inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 627,071 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.26%, and the inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 484,118 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.83%. For the 300 - series, the total inventory was 676,670 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1% [8]. View and Strategy - The recent market sentiment of stainless steel has cooled down. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is around 13,500 yuan, and the lower limit is around 12,400 yuan. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations between 12,400 - 13,500 yuan [9][10]. Global and Chinese Primary Nickel Supply - Demand Situation Global Primary Nickel - In the first half of 2025, the global primary nickel supply was about 1.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10%. The supply of refined nickel and Indonesian NPI increased significantly, with year - on - year growth rates of 11% and 21% respectively, while the global FeNi decreased significantly by nearly 13%. The consumption growth rates of the stainless steel and alloy industries were relatively high, with the stainless steel consumption growth rate at about 7.5% and the alloy consumption year - on - year growth rate close to 5%. In the first half of the year, the global primary nickel supply was sufficient, with a slight inventory build - up. It is expected that both supply and demand will continue to grow in the second half of 2025. The annual supply is expected to reach 3.77 million tons, a year - on - year growth rate of about 4.7%, and the consumption is about 3.65 million tons, a year - on - year growth rate of 4.9%. The annual surplus is estimated to be 150,000 tons [19]. Chinese Primary Nickel - In the first half of 2025, China's total primary nickel supply was about 1.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The import of primary nickel increased by 5% year - on - year, and the import of ferronickel increased significantly. The domestic production of nickel pig iron also increased. From the overall supply - demand data, the inventory increased by 120,000 tons in the first half of the year, indicating a relatively loose supply. It is expected that both supply and demand will continue to grow in 2025. The total annual primary nickel supply is expected to be 2.5 million tons, the consumption is 2.28 million tons, and the surplus is 250,000 tons [35]. Stainless Steel Industry Production and Capacity - As of July 2025, the national monthly stainless steel production schedule is expected to be 3.47 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%. Among them, the 200 - series production schedule is 1.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.9%, the 300 - series is 1.76 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%, and the 400 - series is 650,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% [118]. Terminal Consumption - The terminal consumption of 300 - series stainless steel is relatively dispersed, and is more correlated with the macro - economic level. The real estate sector is the main drag factor, while the home appliance sector is the main factor boosting consumption, driven by policies such as "trade - in" and "national subsidies" [141]. Profit Level - As of July 2025, for the short - process smelting of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel, the cost was 12,627 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 56 yuan per ton, and the profit margin was 0.18%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. For the process of purchasing high - grade ferronickel externally, the cost was 12,897 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6 yuan per ton, and the profit margin was - 1.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04%. For the process of using low - grade ferronickel + pure nickel, the cost was 15,890 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 44 yuan per ton, and the profit margin was - 20.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22% [166].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is affected by news, and its fundamentals are under pressure; the stainless - steel market is in a game between reality and macro factors, and steel prices fluctuate [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,550, with changes of 1,170 compared to T - 1, 1,410 compared to T - 5, etc. The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel is 12,670, with a change of - 25 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 131,554, and that of the main contract of stainless steel is 151,703 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 121,450, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 900, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,220. There are also data on price differences, premiums, and other indicators [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [1] - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial - production stage, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [2] - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal processing park has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [2][3] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series output, and it cut production by 40% - 50% in May [3] - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban clause from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [3] - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the government may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [3] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [3] - The government - approved 2025 production plan and budget (RKAB) output of Indonesian nickel - mining companies is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [5]

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to oversupply, with expectations for the second half of the year to focus on short-selling and selling call options [1][8]. Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices fluctuated widely in the first half of the year, reaching a high of 136,000 yuan/ton in Q1 due to tight supply and favorable macro conditions, but fell back in Q2 due to oversupply [1]. - The price dynamics were influenced by various factors, including Indonesia's RKAB quota adjustments and the Philippines' export bans, which significantly impacted market reactions [1][2]. Policy Impact on Supply - Indonesian and Philippine nickel policies aim to increase industry revenue, categorized into "quantity" and "price" controls, with quantity controls having a more direct but challenging implementation [2]. - The likelihood of significant supply cuts is low, as both countries face resistance to drastic measures that could impact production and employment [2]. Production and Cost Trends - Nickel iron costs have risen due to tight supply of high-grade nickel ore, while demand from stainless steel has weakened, leading to price pressures [3][4]. - The production capacity of MHP and high-nickel products continues to expand, but the pace of new project launches may slow due to declining nickel prices [3][4]. Demand Dynamics - Stainless steel, which accounts for over 60% of nickel demand, has seen production growth, but overall demand is expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and lackluster real estate market performance [6][8]. - The electric vehicle sector, a significant source of nickel demand, is facing challenges as competition increases and the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries rises [7]. Market Outlook - The overall outlook for nickel prices remains bearish, with expectations for seasonal supply increases in Q3 potentially leading to further price declines [8]. - Despite the downward pressure, there may be temporary price increases due to conflicting interests between resource countries and market dynamics [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The support at the ore end has loosened, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are fluctuating [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: There are supply - side news disturbances, and high volatility may continue [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts have started to accumulate, and attention should be paid to the upside space [2][14]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the spot trading situation [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,380 yuan, down 1,720 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,695 yuan, down 20 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 94,219 lots, an increase of 13,487 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 66,368 lots, a decrease of 26,319 lots from T - 1 [4]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 119,750 yuan, down 1,400 yuan from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 902 yuan, down 2 yuan from T - 1 [4]. Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario's Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [4]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF successfully produced ferronickel, with a single - line annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel [5]. - An important nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6][8]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of 300 - series production [8]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [8]. - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed on illegal companies [8]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [9]. - The government - approved 2025 RKAB production of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [9]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [10]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 66,660 yuan, an increase of 180 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 764,028 lots, a decrease of 250,530 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 342,146 lots, a decrease of 14,015 lots from T - 1 [11]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,900 yuan, an increase of 250 yuan from T - 1; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) was 8,280 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [11]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 64,689 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [12]. - On July 15, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Science and Technology adjusted the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Exporting in China", adding battery cathode material preparation technology [12][13]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1 [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,785 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 1,416,898 lots, a decrease of 57,095 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 396,653 lots, a decrease of 6,237 lots from T - 1. The closing price of the PS2508 contract was 42,470 yuan/ton, an increase of 705 yuan from T - 1 [14]. - **Price and Profit**: The price of East - China oxygen - passed Si5530 was 9,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan from T - 1; the profit of Xinjiang's new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 2,297 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan from T - 1 [14]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipts) was 55.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from T - 5; the polysilicon factory inventory was 27.6 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons from T - 5 [14]. Macro and Industry News - The Hanyuan Yongli Township and Jiaodingshan photovoltaic power generation projects invested by a subsidiary of the National Energy Group were successfully put into operation. The Yongli Township project has a capacity of 130MW and an annual power generation of 167 million kWh [15]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 0 [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: The support at the ore end has loosened, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [2]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are oscillating [2]. - Lithium carbonate: There are policy disturbances on the supply side, and attention should be paid to the subsequent actual progress [2]. - Industrial silicon: Market news has fermented, and the futures price has risen [2]. - Polysilicon: There are policy disturbances, and attention should be paid to the spot transaction situation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,100 yuan, down 290 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,715 yuan, up 5 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume and other indicators of both contracts also showed corresponding changes [4]. - Industry Chain: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 904 yuan, down 1 yuan from T - 1; the nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference was 308 yuan, down 3 yuan from T - 1 [4]. Macro and Industry News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4]. - China Enfei's EPC - contracted Indonesia CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [5]. - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6][7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance from June to July, affecting about 110,000 - 130,000 tons of 300 - series production [7]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban clause from the mining fiscal system bill [7]. - Environmental violations have been found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed [7]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [8]. - The government - approved 2025 RKAB production of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [8]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 66,480 yuan, up 2,200 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume and other indicators also changed accordingly [10]. - Spot and Basis: The spot - 2509 basis was - 1,830 yuan, down 1,300 yuan from T - 1 [10]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased by 927 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day [11]. - Tianqi Lithium expects to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, while Ganfeng Lithium still expects a loss but with a reduced amount [11][12]. Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 1 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The closing price of Si2509 was 8,695 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of PS2508 was 41,765 yuan/ton, up 435 yuan from T - 1 [13]. - Price and Profit: The price of industrial silicon and polysilicon products, as well as the profit of related enterprises, showed different changes. For example, the silicon - factory profit in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,387 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan from T - 1 [13]. - Inventory: The industrial - silicon social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) was 55.1 million tons, down 0.1 million tons from T - 5 [13]. Macro and Industry News - Saudi Arabia has signed power - purchase agreements for 7 new solar and wind projects with a total installed capacity of 15GW and a total investment of about 8.3 billion US dollars [13][15]. Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 1; polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices first declined and then rose, with significant macro - impacts. Spot transactions were average, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. In the industrial chain, ore prices slightly declined, and freight rates may continue to rise due to insufficient shipping capacity. Ferronickel prices were weak, and the cost - line center of gravity decreased. Stainless steel exchange warehouse receipts continued to flow out, and demand remained poor as July and August are traditional off - seasons for consumption. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, which is beneficial for nickel demand, but attention should be paid to the supply - side reform of new energy vehicles. The medium - to - long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged [6]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract is expected to operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: Nickel prices were affected by the macro - environment, with spot transactions being average. In the industrial chain, ore prices dropped slightly, freight rates might rise, ferronickel prices were weak, and stainless steel demand was poor. New energy vehicle data was positive for nickel demand, but the long - term surplus remained [6]. - **Operation Strategies**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract will operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel ore: The price of some grades of laterite nickel ore decreased. For example, the price of laterite nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% dropped from $52 to $51, a decrease of 1.92% [11]. - Electrolytic nickel: The prices of Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan ex - factory price all decreased. Shanghai electrolytic nickel dropped from 124,620 yuan to 123,260 yuan, a decrease of 1.09% [12]. - Ferronickel: Low - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped from 3,600 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78%. High - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped from 920 yuan/nickel point to 915 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 0.54% [11]. - Stainless steel: The price of 304 stainless steel increased from 13,425 yuan/ton to 13,487.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% [12]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Price: The price of some grades of nickel ore decreased by $1 per wet ton compared with last week, while the freight rate increased by $2 per wet ton [15]. - Inventory: On July 10, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 8.9649 million wet tons, an increase of 246,500 wet tons or 2.83% from the previous period [15]. - Import: In May 2025, nickel ore imports were 3.9272 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0131 million tons or 34.77%, and a year - on - year decrease of 681,700 tons or 14.79% [15]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Price: Nickel prices first declined and then rose, with average transactions. The overall demand was hard to improve, and the marginal cost also decreased to some extent [20][23]. - Production: In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37% [27]. - Import and Export: In May 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 17,535.551 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,076 tons or 5.78%, and a year - on - year increase of 9,631 tons or 121.85% [31]. 3.2.4 Ferronickel Market Conditions - Price: Ferronickel prices continued to decline. Low - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and high - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped by 5 yuan/nickel [41][43]. - Production: In June 2025, China's ferronickel actual production in metal terms was 23,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.35% [45]. - Import: In May 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 848,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons or 3.8%, and a year - on - year increase of 197,000 tons or 30.2% [48]. - Inventory: In June, the negotiable inventory of ferronickel was 233,100 physical tons, equivalent to 21,000 nickel tons [51]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - Price: The price of 304 stainless steel increased. The four - location average price increased by 62.5 yuan/ton compared with last week [56][57]. - Production: In June, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2916 million tons, with the production of the 300 - series decreasing by 2.28% month - on - month [61]. - Import and Export: The latest data shows that stainless steel imports were 125,100 tons and exports were 436,200 tons [64]. - Inventory: On July 11, the inventory in Wuxi was 62,230 tons, in Foshan was 359,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1675 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,700 tons [67]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - Production and Sales: In May 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35% and 36.9% respectively. From January to May 2025, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44% respectively [73]. - Power Batteries: In May 2025, the total production of power and other batteries was 123.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. The power battery loading volume was 57.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 43.1% [77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, prices fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The position has not increased significantly. Although the MACD shows a red bar, the upward trend has slowed down. Technically, the pressure of the upper golden section line is still large, and there is minor support such as the 20 - day moving average below. A range - bound view is maintained [80]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: The impact of different links on nickel prices varies. Nickel ore, ferronickel, and refined nickel are neutral - bearish. Stainless steel is neutral, and new energy is neutral - bullish [83]. - **Trading Strategies**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract will operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [85][86].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: The support at the mine end is loosening, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [1]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and macro factors, and steel prices are oscillating [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel was 121,390, with a change of 250 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,710, with a change of -155 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel was 101,921, a decrease of 234 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of the main contract of stainless steel was 156,045, an increase of 55,013 compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,500, an increase of 1,600 compared to T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 904, a decrease of 1 compared to T - 1; the price of red土镍矿1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 59, unchanged compared to T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff battle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [1]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% grade nickel - iron, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [2]. - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal processing park has resumed production. In March this year, it almost stopped all production due to a tailings pond landslide. The capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [3][4]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, with an expected impact of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly affecting the production of 300 - series stainless steel. In May, it had cut production by 40% - 50% due to the sluggish market [4]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw ore export ban clause from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [4]. - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, including improper wastewater management, air pollution, and the use of unlicensed tailings areas. The government may fine the confirmed illegal companies and will audit the entire park [4]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies [5]. - The government - approved 2025 work plan and budget (RKAB) production of Indonesian nickel mining companies is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6].