| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 市场回顾 | 3 | | | 第三部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、精炼镍产量季节性变动 | | 3 | | | 二、不锈钢低价原料不足，保持淡季去库 | | 8 | | | 三、三元需求淡季不淡 | | 16 | | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 22 | | | 免责声明 | | | 24 | 有色板块研发报告 镍 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 【行情回顾】 2 月，镍价先跌后涨，运行区间收窄，低点下探 13 万，高点却也不足 14.5 万。当前市场交易逻辑被印尼镍产品供应扰动主导，不断有新消息刺 激市场神经。2 月横跨春节长假，节前资金流出避险，价格回调；节后下游 逐步复工，市场情绪回暖，资金重返镍市，呈现量价齐增的格局。 【市场展望】 宏观层面，地缘政治冲突加剧、货币贬值压力显现、通胀预期升温，资 金流入商品市场，有色板块虽然 1 月冲高后技术性回调，但中长期涨势尚未 结束。产业 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The nickel price has recently shown a volatile consolidation pattern, with the fundamentals continuing the game between strong expectations and weak reality. Although the market expects a significant contraction in Indonesian nickel supply due to quota reduction, the previous increase in nickel price has led to a short - term increase in supply and continuous accumulation of domestic inventory. In the future, the nickel fundamentals still have a repair expectation. The raw material ore price has risen significantly, and the rainy - season disturbances and the delay of the MOMS system review still restrict the supply. The nickel ore premium may increase further, and the cost support of the nickel industry chain is strong, which is expected to provide bottom - line resilience for the price [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - **Futures**: Last week, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened at 138,000 yuan/ton, closed at 131,840 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 141,100 yuan/ton and a low of 129,300 yuan/ton, down 5.83% for the week. The stainless - steel main contract opened at 14,100 yuan/ton, closed at 13,670 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 14,115 yuan/ton and a low of 13,420 yuan/ton, down 3.32% for the week [9][79]. - **Spot**: As of February 9, the electrolytic nickel spot price decreased by 750 yuan/ton to 139,450 yuan/ton, a 0.53% week - on - week decrease; the Jinchuan nickel price decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 144,150 yuan/ton, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease; the imported nickel price decreased by 1,250 yuan/ton to 134,600 yuan/ton, a 0.92% week - on - week decrease. The 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 14,100 yuan/ton [16][79]. - **Import and Export**: As of February 6, the LME nickel price decreased by 320 US dollars/ton to 17,235 US dollars/ton, a 1.82% week - on - week decrease. The electrolytic nickel import profit and loss decreased by 69.9 yuan/ton to - 476.27 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic nickel export profit and loss increased by 265.28 US dollars/ton to - 1,178.88 US dollars/ton [21]. 3.2 Raw Materials - Nickel Ore - **Price**: As of February 9, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore were 30, 64.5, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of +0, +5, +0. The ex - factory prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore were 22 and 60.9 US dollars/wet ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of +0.5 and +5.9 [34]. - **Supply**: The Philippine nickel ore output is usually at a very low level at the beginning of the year. The Surigao and Homonhon mining areas are in the rainy - season peak, while Palawan and Zambales are in the dry season and are the main sources of export supply. Some Indonesian mining areas are still affected by rainfall, and the production and circulation efficiency is low. The supply - side increment is limited due to the RKAB quota reduction expectation and the review of the forestry working group [34][4]. - **Inventory**: As of February 6, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 230,000 tons to 6.83 million wet tons, a 3.26% week - on - week decrease [37]. 3.3 Intermediate Products - **Production**: As of January 2026, the Indonesian MHP production increased by 0.3 to 42,000 nickel tons, a 7.69% month - on - month increase; the Indonesian ice - nickel metal production in January 2026 was 41,500 tons, a 4.06% month - on - month increase and a 31.05% year - on - year increase [42]. - **Price**: As of February 9, the MHP FOB price decreased by 1,234 US dollars/ton to 14,870 US dollars/ton, a 7.66% week - on - week decrease; the high - grade nickel matte FOB price decreased by 1,270 US dollars/ton to 15,362 US dollars/ton, a 7.64% week - on - week decrease [42]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Production**: As of January 2026, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production increased by 6,300 tons to 37,700 tons, a 20.06% month - on - month increase and a 25.54% year - on - year increase [46]. - **Inventory**: As of February 6, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 4,398 tons to 51,300 tons, a 9.38% week - on - week increase; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 1,002 tons to 285,300 tons, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease. The pure nickel social inventory increased by 2,582 tons to 73,200 tons, a 3.65% week - on - week increase [51]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Production**: As of January 2026, China's nickel sulfate monthly production decreased by 1,414 tons to 33,600 nickel tons, a 4.04% month - on - month decrease [63]. - **Demand**: Before the Spring Festival, the downstream precursor and battery factory stocking was basically completed, with only rigid - demand restocking. The high - nickel ternary production scheduling slowed down seasonally, and the trading was light [63]. 3.6 Ferronickel - **Production**: As of January 2026, the national ferronickel production (metal content) increased by 2,000 tons to 23,200 tons, a 9.47% month - on - month increase; the Indonesian ferronickel production decreased by 9,200 tons to 132,100 nickel tons, a 6.51% month - on - month decrease [73]. - **Cost**: Last week, the ferronickel cost pressure intensified, and the profit space significantly narrowed. The high cost was difficult to be passed on to the downstream due to weak demand [75]. 3.7 Stainless Steel - **Production**: As of January 2026, China's stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 165,500 tons to 3.426 million tons, a 5.08% month - on - month increase and a 24.83% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the production scheduling in February 2026 will be 2.651 million tons, a 22.62% month - on - month decrease and a 12.49% year - on - year decrease [82]. - **Inventory**: As of February 6, the stainless - steel social inventory increased by 12,300 tons to 964,900 tons, a 1.29% week - on - week increase. The stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity increased by 9,705 tons to 53,500 tons, a 22.18% week - on - week increase [85]. - **Cost**: As of February 9, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 141 yuan/ton to 13,696 yuan/ton, a 1.02% week - on - week decrease [88].

Core Viewpoint - Nickel is experiencing a significant price correction due to a combination of macroeconomic pressures, fundamental discrepancies, and capital withdrawal, leading to a rapid decline in global nickel prices [1][2]. Macroeconomic Factors - Major economies are facing weak growth prospects, which diminishes short-term demand expectations for industrial metals. Adjustments in central bank monetary policy have increased the relative attractiveness of the US dollar, putting pressure on dollar-denominated commodities [1][2]. - Geopolitical tensions have shifted risk aversion towards assets like gold, providing limited support for industrial metals [1]. Fundamental Factors - There is a "discrepancy" between expectations and reality in the nickel market. Uncertainties regarding production cuts from key supply countries have weakened the core logic that previously supported prices. High visible inventories have exacerbated perceptions of supply looseness [2]. - Demand from major downstream industries is weak, with only rigid procurement being maintained, and high prices significantly suppressing demand. Emerging sectors are not yet sufficient to offset the weakness in traditional areas [2]. Capital Behavior - After significant prior gains, the market has accumulated substantial profit-taking positions. When negative signals emerged from macro and fundamental aspects, this capital concentrated on exiting the market, triggering a rapid price correction [2]. Supply Side Dynamics - Indonesia, which dominates nearly 70% of global nickel supply, has drastically reduced its nickel ore quota for 2026 to 250-260 million tons, a drop of over 34% from the previous year, reinforcing expectations of long-term supply shortages [2]. - While domestic electrolytic nickel capacity in China is increasing, the raw material supply is constrained by Indonesian policies, limiting overall growth [2]. Demand Side Dynamics - The demand for nickel is currently characterized by a transitional phase, with significant slowdowns in the stainless steel sector, which heavily relies on the Chinese real estate market, now in decline [3]. - In the emerging energy sector, the demand structure is changing, with lithium iron phosphate batteries gaining market share at the expense of high-nickel materials, leading to slow order growth for high-nickel routes [3][4]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have led to a 35% reduction in local nickel production, increasing transportation and insurance costs, which has contributed to a geopolitical premium of 3%-5% on nickel prices [4]. Industry Chain Dynamics - There is a significant profit differentiation across the industry chain, with upstream resource holders benefiting from rising prices, while midstream refining faces pressure and downstream manufacturing struggles with cost increases not being passed on to end products [5]. - The market is currently in a state of oscillation between strong expectations and weak realities, with rising inventories and seasonal demand weakness limiting price increases [5]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term (1-3 trading days), nickel prices are expected to fluctuate between $18,600 and $19,200 per ton, with market activity likely to decrease as the Chinese New Year approaches [6]. - In the medium to long term (1-3 months), nickel prices may have upward momentum as the impacts of Indonesian policies become evident and demand is expected to recover post-spring [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term policy vacuum period due to the confrontation between industrial and secondary market funds. The key to breaking the deadlock lies in the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter, especially the quota policy. For trading, it is recommended to consider options, and pay attention to structural opportunities. [4][5] - For stainless steel, the expectation of increased supply and weak demand in the off - season exerts pressure, while the cost center moves up due to the increase in ferronickel cost. Attention should be paid to the variables in Indonesian nickel ore policies. [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 News Affecting the Nickel Market - **Quota Event**: On January 8, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources stated that the quota would be adjusted according to industry demand. On January 14, it was mentioned that the target might be cut to 260 million tons of nickel ore quota. The policy for 2026 is still under review, and it is expected that specific policies will be clarified in the first quarter. If the 260 - million - ton quota is implemented, it may lead to a shortage in the ore end and impact high inventories. [1] - **伴生 Mineral Event**: Indonesia wants to include associated minerals such as cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. If cobalt is priced, the direct cost of pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy may increase by about 5% - 10%. [2] - **违规 Fine Event**: Multiple companies in Indonesia are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land. The final fine may be lower than the initial estimate. If the fine is implemented, it may indirectly lead to higher ore prices. [2] - **Other Events**: In early 2026, Vale suspended its nickel mining business but later resumed normal operations after obtaining the 2026 mining quota approval. It is speculated that Indonesia may favor hydrometallurgical projects. [3] 3.2 Market Outlook 3.2.1 Nickel - Industrial players focus on the weak fundamentals of nickel, with over - supply pressure and expectations of low - cost hydrometallurgical production. They mainly adopt a strategy of selling at high prices for hedging. Secondary market funds expect policy changes in Indonesia and tend to go long at low prices in the long - term. In the short - term, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and the key lies in the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter. [4][5] 3.2.2 Stainless Steel - The expectation of increased supply and weak demand in the off - season puts pressure on stainless steel. However, the increase in ferronickel cost due to various factors in Indonesia may push up the cost of stainless steel. The cost logic may cause the stainless steel price to oscillate with a higher center, but the marginal increase in supply and weak demand still have a drag effect. [6] 3.3 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On January 15, China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 102 tons to 60,587 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 942 tons to 285,732 tons. [7] - **新能源**: On January 16, the inventory days of upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate increased slightly month - on - month. The precursor inventory and ternary material inventory also increased month - on - month. [7] - **Nickel - Iron - Stainless Steel**: On January 15, the full - industry chain inventory of SMM nickel - iron decreased by 2% month - on - month to 131,000 metal tons. Stainless steel factory inventory decreased in December, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreased week - on - week on January 15. [7] 3.4 Market News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing certain nickel - related products. [8] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products since January 1, 2026. [8] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources would revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection. [8] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons. [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for nickel is "neutral", while the core view is "bullish". Specific aspects have different ratings: nickel ore price is "neutral", Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore is "bullish", freight is "neutral", refined nickel production is "bearish", refined nickel inventory (SMM) is "bearish", domestic NPI price is "bullish", nickel iron production is "bullish", nickel sulfate production is "bullish", stainless steel production schedule is "bullish", stainless steel social inventory is "bullish", and stainless steel cost is "bullish" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The current market focus has shifted to the RKAB quota approval in 2026, and the Indonesian Mining Association expects the relevant process to be completed within the next three months. Given the flexibility in policy implementation, there is a need to be vigilant about the deviation between the actual implementation of the quota and market expectations. Currently, nickel prices are supported by supply - side policy constraints and are expected to temporarily break away from the current pressure. However, as speculative funds drive the price to an overly optimistic range, nickel prices may be verified by the fundamentals [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News Update - Jilin Jien Nickel Industry Co., Ltd.'s 60,000 - ton nickel sulfate project was officially put into operation on December 31, 2025 [7] - Due to the non - approval of the 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota, PT Vale Indonesia Tbk has suspended its nickel ore mining activities [7] - On December 26, 2025, Shengtun Mining Group Co., Ltd. announced the termination of its investment in the 40,000 - ton high - grade nickel matte project in Indonesia [7] - The Indonesian Forest Law Enforcement Task Force (PKH) will fine 71 palm oil plantations and mining companies that violated forest area use as of December 8, 2025, including PT Weda Bay Nickel [7] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and the revised version will be announced in January or February [7] - The Indonesian government plans to cut the nickel ore mining quota in 2026, with the target set at about 250 million tons [7] 3.2 Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of SHFE nickel 2602 opened at 126,700 yuan/ton, closed at 132,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 135,570 yuan/ton and a low of 124,180 yuan/ton, up 4.81% for the week [9] - The main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,955 yuan/ton, closed at 13,125 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 13,200 yuan/ton and a low of 12,840 yuan/ton, up 1.31% for the week [78] 3.3 Price Changes - As of January 5, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 30 yuan/nickel point to 930 yuan/nickel point, a week - on - week increase of 3.33% [3][30] - As of January 5, the price of electrolytic nickel spot increased by 8,450 yuan/ton to 138,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.52% [16] - As of January 5, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 8,450 yuan/ton to 141,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.34%, and the premium increased by 300 to 7,400 yuan/ton [17] - As of January 5, the price of imported nickel increased by 8,150 yuan/ton to 134,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.44%, and the premium remained flat at 400 yuan/ton [17] - As of January 5, the LME nickel price increased by 1,530 US dollars/ton to 17,290 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71% [21] - As of January 6, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore remained flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [36] - As of January 2, the ex - works prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia remained flat at 22.5 and 51.9 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [36] - As of January 6, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased by 233 yuan/ton to 13,086 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.81% [88] 3.4 Supply and Demand - According to the monthly balance sheet of primary nickel in China, from May 2025 to May 2026, the total supply and demand of nickel are in a state of balance, with a supply surplus [4] - As of December 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.56 million tons to 3.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.37% [3][48] - As of December 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly output decreased by 1,640 tons to 29,200 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.47% [3][62] - As of December 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 226,000 tons to 3.2671 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.09% [3][81] - As of January 2, stainless steel social inventory decreased by 27,800 tons to 977,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.76% [3][84] 3.5 Inventory - As of January 6, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 878 tons to 39,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28%, and LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 360 tons to 255,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [52] - Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including SHFE) increased by 556 tons to 58,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.95% [3][52] - As of December 31, nickel ore port inventory decreased by 120,000 tons to 8.69 million wet tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.36% [39] 3.6 Production Cost - As of December 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel increased by 143 US dollars/ton to 13,351 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.08% [58] - As of December 2025, the production costs of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel were 111,026 yuan/ton and 124,817 yuan/ton respectively [58] - As of January 6, the production cash cost of RKEF in Fujian decreased by 0.57 yuan/nickel point to 940.34 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin increased by 3.31 percentage points to - 0.49% [74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The news indicates that the planned nickel ore production in Indonesia in 2026 may drop significantly compared to 2025, and the Indonesian government plans to revise the mineral benchmark price calculation formula for nickel commodities. In addition, Vale Indonesia has suspended nickel ore mining due to the unapproved production plan. Fundamentally, the domestic trade price and premium of nickel ore are basically stable. The weekly nickel - iron transaction price has increased, and the contraction of stainless - steel supply and the strengthening of prices have accelerated inventory depletion. The raw material price is stronger than the finished product, the theoretical profit of nickel sulfate has turned negative, the prices of nickel, cobalt, and lithium have all strengthened, the demand has weakened, and the terminal is facing cost pressure. Influenced by the news, the stock and commodity markets resonate, and the nickel price strengthens, but the actual implementation situation is unknown, so market sentiment should be monitored [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price - In the month, the price of Shanghai Nickel increased by 12.6%, and the price of LME Nickel increased by 12.5%. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the prices of products in other links of the industrial chain all strengthened [5]. 3.2 Base Price Difference, Spread & Import Profit and Loss - Relevant charts such as the seasonal chart of Shanghai Nickel basis, the price difference between the active and continuous 3 - month contracts of Shanghai Nickel, and the Shanghai - London ratio are presented, but no specific data analysis is provided [5][7]. 3.3 Inventory - During the week, the LME inventory decreased by 414 tons to 255,282 tons; the Shanghai Nickel inventory decreased by 132 tons to 37,666 tons, the social inventory increased by 556 tons to 58,920 tons, and the bonded - area inventory remained at 2,200 tons [5][13]. 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Nickel Ore - The premium of Indonesian nickel ore remained at $25.5 per wet ton, and the premium of 1.5% nickel ore from the Philippines increased by $1 per wet ton to $9.0 per wet ton [5][19]. 3.4.2 Refined Nickel - In January 2026, the production of refined nickel is expected to increase by 35.8% month - on - month to 37,200 tons [5][21]. 3.4.3 Ferronickel - In January 2026, the domestic ferronickel production decreased by 1% month - on - month to 21,000 nickel tons; the tender/transaction price increased, and a steel mill in South China inquired about high - nickel ferronickel at 910 yuan per nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom) [5][23]. 3.4.4 Intermediate Products - The spot average prices of MHP and nickel matte increased, and the trading activity increased [5][26]. 3.4.5 Nickel Sulfate - The cost of nickel sulfate increased, and the immediate profit of nickel sulfate was in the red [5][31]. 3.4.6 Scrap Stainless Steel - Relevant charts about the usage and proportion of 300 - series and 200 - series scrap stainless - steel enterprises in China are presented, but no specific data analysis is provided [38][39]. 3.4.7 Primary Nickel - Relevant charts about domestic primary nickel production and estimated net imports of primary nickel are presented, but no specific data analysis is provided [41][42]. 3.5 Demand 3.5.1 New Energy - In January 2026, the production of ternary precursors is expected to decrease by 2% month - on - month to 83,260 tons; the production of ternary materials is expected to decrease by 4.43% month - on - month to 78,180 tons; the production of ternary power batteries is expected to decrease by 6.15% month - on - month to 28.7 GWh. The Passenger Car Association expects that the auto market will have a good start in January 2026, and new - energy vehicles are expected to have a slight increase of 5% in the first quarter, with a 36% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 [5][47][56]. 3.5.2 Stainless Steel - Most stainless - steel prices increased in the month. The total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 warehouses in the mainstream domestic markets was 977,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%, among which the 300 - series decreased by 8,500 tons to 620,000 tons. The production schedule in January 2026 was 3.327 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.83% and a year - on - year increase of 16.27%. Among them, the 200 - series was 998,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.84% and a year - on - year increase of 29.6%; the 300 - series was 1.7193 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5% and a year - on - year increase of 9.78%; the 400 - series was 609,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.03% and a year - on - year increase of 16.06%. The theoretical profit was repaired in the month [5][4][77]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - Relevant charts about the supply - demand balance of primary nickel and nickel sulfate are presented, but no specific data analysis is provided [93][94][96]. 3.7 Options - Relevant charts such as historical volatility and historical volatility cone are presented, as well as the put - call ratio of option trading volume and open interest related to the closing price of Shanghai Nickel, but no specific data analysis is provided [97][98][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The focus on nickel and stainless steel in the capital market is due to changes in the news, including Indonesia's 250 million - ton nickel ore quota target and the consideration of including associated minerals like cobalt in the pricing and taxation system [1]. - The nickel price may fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the game between industry and funds. The key to breaking the situation lies in the implementation of Indonesia's nickel ore news in the first quarter. Options can be considered in trading, and short - term attention can be paid to structural arbitrage opportunities [3]. - The stainless steel market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the cost support center moving up. The core contradiction lies in the raw material end. The price is likely to oscillate in a range and may not return to previous lows, and the direction will depend on the implementation of Indonesia's policies in the first quarter [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 News Impact on Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Quota Event**: If Indonesia's 250 million - ton nickel ore quota is implemented, the expected surplus may turn into a shortage. However, considering the "downstream policy", the implementation time is uncertain, and the first quarter of 2026 is an important window for tracking policy implementation [1]. - **Associated Minerals Event**: Indonesia wants to include cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. It is estimated that the cost of pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy may increase by about 5% - 10% [2]. 3.2 Market Trends - **Nickel**: The previous trading logic was the surplus pressure and the expected commissioning of hydrometallurgy projects. The Indonesian news has increased market volatility. The nickel price will be in a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short - term [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, but the cost center has moved up due to the impact of nickel - related factors. The price will oscillate in a range, and the upper - limit increase may be restricted by the actual delivery profit [5]. 3.3 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On December 26, China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 263 tons to 56,725 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 1,146 tons to 255,696 tons [6]. - **New Energy**: On December 26, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed to 5, 8, and 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory changed to 13.0 days; and on December 25, the ternary material inventory changed to 6.9 days [6]. - **Nickel - Iron - Stainless Steel**: On December 25, the SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory increased by 8% month - on - month to 132,000 metal tons. The stainless - steel factory inventory in November was 1.588 million tons, and on December 25, the steel - union stainless - steel social total inventory was 1,005,136 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55% [6]. 3.4 Market News - Multiple events have occurred, including Indonesia's forestry working group taking over a nickel - ore mining area, China suspending a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, Indonesia sanctioning mining companies, and Indonesia planning to adjust the nickel - ore production target and pricing formula [7][8][10][11].

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Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices in China have rebounded, leading the domestic non-ferrous sector, with a maximum intraday increase of over 3% as market dynamics shift [9][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) announced that the nickel ore production target for the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) is expected to be around 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons target set for 2025 [9][10] - APNI also revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to revise the pricing formula for nickel commodities at the beginning of 2026, focusing on including nickel-associated minerals (like cobalt) as independent mineral types for pricing and taxation [9][10] Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - In the traditional industry chain, nickel-iron prices remain stable, and the stainless steel spot market shows improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel at 1.0636 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.55% [10] - In the new energy industry chain, the decline in nickel prices, combined with year-end factors, has led to further price pressure from low-priced goods, while marginal demand is weakening, with a month-on-month decrease in the production of ternary precursors in December [10] - Domestic primary nickel inventory is showing signs of accumulation again, indicating that the oversupply situation for nickel remains unchanged, with weak demand and high inventory potentially limiting price increases [10]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate. In November, the output of pure nickel dropped sharply by 28.13% month-on-month, and the decline in the previous market fully affected the supply side. Although the nickel price valuation has recovered, it has not regained the previous losses, and the medium - and long - term logic is still constrained by fundamental factors. In the fourth quarter, the rigid cost of the ore end and the uncertainty of the RKAB approval process in Indonesia form double support, limiting the further decline of nickel prices, but the real - world contradictions in downstream demand remain unresolved, and the upward driving force is still weak [3][4]. Summary by Directory Nickel Market Overview - The main contract of Shanghai nickel (2601) opened at 114,500 yuan/ton and closed at 117,080 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly increase of 2.66% [10]. - As of December 2, the spot price of electrolytic nickel increased by 1,350 yuan/ton to 119,900 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 1.14% increase [16]. Nickel - related Product Prices - As of December 1, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content remained unchanged at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [35]. - As of November 28, the ex - works prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore with Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% remained unchanged at 23 and 52.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [35]. - As of November 28, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 8 yuan/nickel point to 883 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 0.90% decrease [29]. - As of December 2, the battery - grade nickel sulfate price decreased by 350 yuan/ton to 27,730 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the electroplating - grade nickel sulfate price remained unchanged at 31,250 yuan/ton [29]. Supply and Demand of Nickel and Related Products Nickel Ore - As of November 28, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 9.51 million wet tons week - on - week, a 0.31% decrease [38]. - In October 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million tons, a 23.41% decrease month - on - month and a 10.97% increase year - on - year. The import volume from the Philippines was 4.3468 million tons, a 25.28% decrease month - on - month [38]. Intermediate Products - As of December 1, the MHP FOB price increased by 148 US dollars/ton to 12,979 US dollars/ton week - on - week, a 1.15% increase; the high - grade nickel matte FOB price increased by 151 US dollars/ton to 13,259 US dollars/ton week - on - week, a 1.15% increase [44]. - In November 2025, the Indonesian MHP output decreased by 0.24 million tons to 3.86 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 5.85% decrease; the high - grade nickel matte output increased by 0.7 million tons to 2.92 million tons month - on - month, a 31.53% increase [44]. Refined Nickel - In November 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output decreased by 10,100 tons to 25,800 tons month - on - month, a 28.13% decrease and a 16.28% decrease year - on - year [52]. - In October 2025, China's refined nickel monthly export volume was 13,700 tons, a 3.15% decrease month - on - month and a 0.76% decrease year - on - year; the monthly import volume was 9,700 tons, a 65.66% decrease month - on - month and a 5.67% decrease year - on - year [52]. - As of December 1, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 17,000 tons to 32,700 tons week - on - week, a 5.13% decrease; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 408 tons to 253,100 tons week - on - week, a 0.16% decrease [53]. Nickel Sulfate - In November 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly output increased by 438 tons to 36,700 nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.21% increase [66]. - In October 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly import volume was 22,100 tons, a 25.32% decrease month - on - month and a 114.15% increase year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 1,058.24 tons, a 31.23% increase month - on - month and a 53.20% decrease year - on - year [66]. Nickel Iron - In November 2025, the national nickel pig iron output (in metal) decreased by 900 tons to 27,200 tons month - on - month, a 3.23% decrease [83]. - In November 2025, the Indonesian nickel pig iron output decreased by 300 tons to 148,800 nickel tons month - on - month, basically unchanged [83]. - As of October 2025, China's nickel iron monthly import volume was 905,100 tons (equivalent to 111,300 tons in metal), a 18.40% decrease month - on - month and a 30.31% increase year - on - year [83]. Stainless Steel - In November 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 54,600 tons to 3.4592 million tons month - on - month, a 1.55% decrease and a 4.24% increase year - on - year [95]. - It is expected that the crude steel production in December will be 3.2857 million tons, a 5.02% decrease month - on - month and a 4.55% decrease year - on - year [95]. - As of November 28, the stainless steel social inventory increased by 14,400 tons to 1.0861 million tons week - on - week, a 1.34% increase [98]. - As of December 2, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased by 21 yuan/ton to 12,488 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.17% increase [102].