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伊利股份(600887):成长与盈利兼顾,股东回报再提升
CMS· 2025-11-19 02:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (伊利股份) [3][5] Core Views - Yili Co., Ltd. emphasizes a strategy focused on quality leadership, horizontal expansion, and vertical upgrades, aiming for balanced growth and profitability while enhancing shareholder returns [2][4] - Despite short-term demand pressures, the company has stabilized its liquid milk market share, with other business segments performing well and continuous improvement in net profit margins [5] - The company plans to focus on the recovery of liquid milk, performance improvement under supply-demand balance, and new growth drivers from deep processing, health products, and overseas markets [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yili Co., Ltd. held an investor day on November 18, 2025, where management discussed the five-year development plan, highlighting the potential for increased per capita consumption of dairy products in China [2] Financial Performance - The company expects earnings per share (EPS) of 1.76 CNY and 1.94 CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a valuation of 16.7X for 2025 [5] - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 116.53 billion CNY, with a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year [6][14] Business Segments - Liquid Milk: The company is shifting from extensive growth to high-quality growth through product innovation and brand enhancement, aiming for positive growth ahead of the industry by 2026 [4][5] - Infant Formula: The "Golden Crown" brand has maintained over 15% compound growth in the past five years, with a target to achieve over 25% market share [4] - Deep Processing: The deep processing sector is rapidly developing, with significant market potential driven by consumption upgrades [4] International Expansion - Yili Co., Ltd. is committed to international growth, with targets for double-digit compound growth in markets like Indonesia and Thailand, and a 20% growth target in the Australian market [4] Shareholder Returns - The company has announced a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% for the years 2025-2027, with a minimum cash dividend of 1.22 CNY per share for 2024 [4][5]