——伊利股份有望受益于乳制品行业国产替代和品类多元化机会 必选消费悦悦谈：乳制品周期底部韧性显现，期待趋势反转 必选消费（强于大市） 2025/12/04 STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL © Nomura 证券研究报告 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 原奶周期复盘：进口大包粉影响逐步减弱，规模化 养殖发展迅速 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 2010-02 2010-09 2011-04 2011-11 2012-06 2013-01 2013-08 2014-03 2014-10 2015-05 2015-12 2016-07 2017-02 2017-09 2018-04 2018-11 2019-06 2020-01 2020-08 2021-03 2021-10 2022-05 2022-12 2023-07 2024-02 2024-09 2025-04 元/kg 市场价:生鲜乳:全国(主产省) 2021年9月至今生鲜乳价格降幅为30.6% 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0 2000 40 ...

近日伊利股份(600887)股价持续走强，K线已七连阳，12月22日最高触及29.32元/股，逼近年内高点。 公司基本面表现稳健，前三季度营业总收入超过905.64亿元，同比增长1.81%；扣非净利超101.03亿 元，同比大幅增长18.73%。 华西证券研报表示公司是当前最佳稳健配置品种。该机构指出，根据公司公告未来三年股东回报规划， 基于资本开支回落与现金流改善，公司以"不低于75%分红比例+每股分红金额保底1.22元（含税）"的 组合承诺，对应当前股价股息率约5%。此举将盈利提升（预计净利率再上台阶）与分红约束绑定，显 著降低估值波动风险。叠加液奶复苏与深加工放量，长期年化收益预期可达10%以上，凸显消费龙头在 弱周期中的防御性与成长性平衡。 从历史表现来看，伊利股份无愧大白马称号。业绩表现方面，2005年至2024年二十年间期间复合增长率 接近14%，净利复合增长率高达19.51%。 从盈利能力角度来看，公司自2009年以来连续十六年平均净资产收益率超过15%，整个A股市场只有贵 州茅台、美的集团、古井贡酒、格力电器、海康威视、双汇发展等十多家公司达到这一成就。 | | | | 持续高ROE公司分红率 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887) with a target price of 36 CNY [2][6]. Core Insights - Yili has outlined a five-year growth plan focusing on stabilizing the entire industry chain and enhancing profitability amidst weak demand and intensified competition. The company aims for a net profit margin of 9% for the year [6]. - The company expects revenue growth to outpace GDP growth over the next five years, with a focus on liquid milk and functional nutrition as key growth drivers [6]. - Yili plans to increase its market share in various product categories, including infant formula and low-temperature dairy products, while also accelerating international expansion [6]. - A commitment to high dividend payouts has been established, with plans for cash dividends to account for at least 75% of net profit from 2025 to 2027 [6]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue (in million CNY) for 2024A is 115,780, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.2%. By 2027E, revenue is expected to reach 125,537 million CNY, with a growth rate of 3.5% [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 8,453 million CNY in 2024A, with a significant increase to 13,302 million CNY by 2027E, reflecting a growth rate of 8.2% [2][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 1.34 CNY in 2024A to 2.10 CNY in 2027E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Yili aims to lead the liquid milk market by 2026, with a focus on penetrating lower-tier markets and enhancing presence in high-tier cities [6]. - The company is shifting its marketing strategy from traditional methods to more engaging and ROI-focused approaches, which is expected to support ongoing profitability improvements [6]. - Yili's international business is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20%, with a focus on high-value products from New Zealand and expanding its presence in Southeast Asia [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (伊利股份) [3][5] Core Views - Yili Co., Ltd. emphasizes a strategy focused on quality leadership, horizontal expansion, and vertical upgrades, aiming for balanced growth and profitability while enhancing shareholder returns [2][4] - Despite short-term demand pressures, the company has stabilized its liquid milk market share, with other business segments performing well and continuous improvement in net profit margins [5] - The company plans to focus on the recovery of liquid milk, performance improvement under supply-demand balance, and new growth drivers from deep processing, health products, and overseas markets [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yili Co., Ltd. held an investor day on November 18, 2025, where management discussed the five-year development plan, highlighting the potential for increased per capita consumption of dairy products in China [2] Financial Performance - The company expects earnings per share (EPS) of 1.76 CNY and 1.94 CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a valuation of 16.7X for 2025 [5] - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 116.53 billion CNY, with a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year [6][14] Business Segments - Liquid Milk: The company is shifting from extensive growth to high-quality growth through product innovation and brand enhancement, aiming for positive growth ahead of the industry by 2026 [4][5] - Infant Formula: The "Golden Crown" brand has maintained over 15% compound growth in the past five years, with a target to achieve over 25% market share [4] - Deep Processing: The deep processing sector is rapidly developing, with significant market potential driven by consumption upgrades [4] International Expansion - Yili Co., Ltd. is committed to international growth, with targets for double-digit compound growth in markets like Indonesia and Thailand, and a 20% growth target in the Australian market [4] Shareholder Returns - The company has announced a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% for the years 2025-2027, with a minimum cash dividend of 1.22 CNY per share for 2024 [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer goods sector is expected to gradually bottom out in demand by 2026, with a narrowing of price declines, although the potential for upward recovery may be limited due to intense competition and weakening raw material cost advantages [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Goods Industry Overview - The consumer goods sector experienced weak demand and intense competition in the first three quarters of 2025, leading to a decline in both volume and price [2]. - The demand for consumer goods is anticipated to stabilize in 2026, supported by a healthy inventory level and the upcoming consumption peak due to the Spring Festival preparations [2]. - Despite the expected stabilization in demand, the consumer goods sector may still face slight pressure on terminal prices due to ongoing weak demand and a trend towards cost-effective consumption [2]. Group 2: Dairy Products - The liquid milk sector faced a decline in demand due to weakened consumer purchasing power, but the rate of decline has slowed compared to 2024 [3]. - Improvements in raw milk supply and demand are expected, with milk prices projected to stop declining and potentially recover in the second half of 2026 [3]. - The liquid milk industry is anticipated to stabilize at its fundamental bottom in 2026, with reduced promotional pricing and a narrowing of price declines [3]. Group 3: Snacks - The snack industry is expected to continue benefiting from channel growth in 2025, particularly in bulk snack channels and membership supermarkets, despite a slowdown in e-commerce and traditional channels [4]. - The profitability of the snack sector is under pressure due to rising raw material costs and increased competition [4]. - In 2026, the focus will be on growth stocks within the snack sector, particularly those benefiting from the ongoing trends in specific product categories [4]. Group 4: Food Supply Chain - The food supply chain sector is closely tied to the performance of the downstream restaurant industry, which is currently experiencing weak overall conditions [5]. - Structural highlights include resilient leading companies gaining market share and the acceleration of mergers and acquisitions to expand categories and channels [5]. - The sector is expected to show signs of marginal improvement in 2026, with potential recovery in demand and easing competitive pressures [5]. Group 5: Beverage Industry - The beverage sector experienced fluctuations in demand in 2025, with a negative growth trend emerging in the third quarter due to price wars on delivery platforms [6]. - The health and functional beverage categories performed better than others, and despite intense competition, many companies managed to improve net profit margins [6]. - A recovery in beverage demand is anticipated in 2026, with expected growth in the mid to high single digits, contingent on market demand and raw material prices [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group (伊利股份) is committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% in the coming years, with expectations for continued increases in dividend amounts, reflecting strong confidence in market share growth and consolidation of its leading position in the dairy industry [2][5][7]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, Yili achieved total revenue of 90.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.103 billion yuan, up 18.73% year-on-year, indicating resilient operational performance [4]. - The company announced a mid-term dividend plan, proposing a total cash dividend of 3.036 billion yuan [4]. Dividend Policy - Yili emphasizes a high dividend level and high dividend yield as part of its market identity, aiming to return profits to shareholders through timely dividends [7]. - The company plans to adjust dividend scales dynamically based on profit growth while ensuring the financial health and funding needs of core business development [7]. Business Segments Performance - The liquid milk segment has shown significant improvement, stabilizing market share and enhancing profitability for distributors, setting a solid foundation for future growth [8]. - The infant formula segment continues to lead the market with double-digit revenue growth, maintaining the highest market share in the industry [10]. - The adult nutrition segment has also outperformed the industry, with revenue growth driven by differentiated product offerings [12]. - The cheese business is emerging as a new growth driver, with both consumer and business-to-business segments expected to achieve double-digit growth [12]. Strategic Initiatives - Yili is focusing on building a deep processing system for dairy products to enhance industry resilience and maximize value [14][16]. - The company is actively investing in deep processing production lines and plans to introduce a wider range of high-value products [16]. - Yili aims to leverage product innovation and channel expansion to drive growth in its ice cream business, which has also seen double-digit revenue growth [16]. Future Outlook - Yili anticipates that the combination of healthy growth in liquid milk and strong performance in milk powder, cheese, and ice cream will drive overall revenue growth [19]. - The company is optimistic about the industry's supply-demand balance improving, which will enhance the competitive advantages of leading enterprises [24]. - Looking towards 2026, Yili plans to continue diversifying its product offerings and optimizing operational strategies to strengthen its competitive capabilities [26].

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group (600887.SH) has released multiple positive signals during its Q3 earnings presentation, indicating confidence in maintaining a market share increase and a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% in the coming years [2][4]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, Yili achieved total revenue of 90.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%. The net profit attributable to shareholders exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.103 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.73% [2]. - Yili announced a mid-term dividend plan, proposing a total cash dividend of 3.036 billion yuan [2]. Dividend Policy - Yili aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio of at least 70% in the coming years, with expectations for continued increases in dividend amounts as profits grow [5]. - The company emphasizes a flexible approach to shareholder returns, adjusting dividend scales based on profit growth while ensuring core business funding and financial stability [5]. Business Segments Performance - Yili's liquid milk business has shown significant improvement, stabilizing market share and enhancing profitability for distributors, setting a solid foundation for future growth [7]. - The infant formula segment continues to lead the market with double-digit revenue growth, while the adult nutrition segment also outperformed the industry, maintaining a leading market share [7]. - The cheese business is emerging as a new growth driver, with both consumer and business-to-business segments showing strong performance, expecting double-digit growth for the year [8]. Strategic Outlook - Yili's new five-year plan focuses on high-quality growth, with expectations for double-digit growth in the milk powder, cheese, and ice cream segments, contributing to overall revenue growth [10]. - The company aims to improve gross margins and sales expense ratios while maintaining a net profit margin target of 9% for the year [10]. - Yili plans to leverage industry opportunities through product innovation and expansion of distribution channels, reinforcing its competitive advantage in the market [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Miaokelando is a leading company in the domestic cheese industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of cheese-based dairy products, with a strong brand presence and diverse product matrix [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Miaokelando reported revenue of 3.957 billion yuan, ranking 5th in the industry, below the industry average of 7.469 billion yuan [2] - The main business composition includes cheese revenue of 2.136 billion yuan (83.20%), trade revenue of 230 million yuan (8.94%), and liquid milk revenue of 187 million yuan (7.29%) [2] - The net profit for the same period was 176 million yuan, ranking 4th in the industry, exceeding the industry median of 46.41 million yuan [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Miaokelando's debt-to-asset ratio was 45.40%, higher than the previous year's 43.36% and the industry average of 41.11% [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 29.88%, an increase from 28.93% in the previous year and above the industry average of 24.79% [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders increased by 13.85% to 39,100 [5] - The average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder decreased by 12.51% to 13,000 [5] Group 4: Strategic Outlook - Analysts from Guangfa Securities highlight Miaokelando's strategic transformation and collaboration with Mengniu, predicting revenue growth from 5.486 billion yuan in 2025 to 7.214 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits increasing significantly [5] - Guohai Securities anticipates revenue growth of 10% to 14% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit projections showing substantial increases [5]

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market in late October will be on Q3 earnings reports, with companies representing new consumption showing strong performance, making them key investment targets [1] Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen high demand for new consumption, and this trend is expected to continue into the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, offering potential for excess returns [3] - Changes in consumer behavior are leading to a rationalization of lifestyles and consumption psychology, benefiting new channels such as instant retail, snack wholesale, and membership supermarkets [3] - There is an increasing consumer focus on health and functionality, while still valuing taste and novelty, which will benefit products like coconut water, konjac, and health foods [3] Group 2: Beneficial Sectors from Policy Stimulus - The demographic structure is a key issue for the "15th Five-Year Plan," with anticipated policies to stimulate birth rates, positively impacting markets for liquid milk, infant formula, and children's cheese [4] - Short-term issuance of dining consumption vouchers is expected to slightly revive the catering sector, with ongoing systemic support likely to continue, enhancing consumer activity in dining services [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Balance - The decline in raw milk prices since 2021 is expected to reverse, with supply-demand imbalances easing during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, leading to a moderate increase in milk prices [5] - On the supply side, the orderly advancement of anti-involution is expected to lead to a cyclical reversal in the livestock industry, with rising beef prices and a reduction in imports contributing to the ongoing capacity reduction in raw milk supply [5] - On the demand side, policy stimuli are anticipated to continue boosting dairy consumption [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shifted focus towards enhancing domestic demand and domestic circulation, emphasizing the need for a balance between supply and demand [3]. - New consumption trends are expected to continue driving excess returns, particularly in new channels and product categories [3]. - The report highlights the potential benefits for dairy products and the restaurant supply chain due to policy stimuli aimed at boosting consumption [3]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the dairy market, with milk prices expected to rise moderately due to improved supply-demand dynamics [3]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies with strong performance in new consumption directions, such as Dongpeng Beverage and Angel Yeast, as well as cyclical stocks with low valuations [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the upgraded focus on domestic demand and the relationship between supply and demand in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - It emphasizes the importance of new consumption trends and channels, such as instant retail and health-oriented products [3]. Key Areas of Focus - The dairy sector is highlighted as a key area benefiting from potential birth rate policies and consumer demand for dairy products [3]. - The restaurant supply chain is expected to see a boost from government consumption vouchers and ongoing support measures [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring quarterly performance reports, particularly for companies aligned with new consumption trends [3]. - It identifies specific stocks to watch, including those with solid fundamentals and those in cyclical sectors that may benefit from improving market conditions [3].