1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is currently in a weak consolidation phase. The "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season in the domestic cotton market is nearing its end, and the overall market is rather quiet. With the unclear situation of Sino - US negotiations and the approaching May Day holiday, it is advisable to clear positions to avoid risks. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 12,700 - 12,900 intraday [4]. - The cotton market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the futures price approaching historical lows and the expectation of the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption peak. Negative factors are the decrease in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, US tariff hikes, stagnant exports to the US, and the European Union's import - restricting regulations [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Sino - US mutual imposition of large - scale tariffs. In March, the textile industry's prosperity index rebounded to 52.47% above the boom - bust line. USDA reported a reduction in April consumption and an increase in inventory, which is slightly bearish. ICAC's April report predicted a production increase compared to the previous month, stable consumption, and a slight increase in ending inventory, also slightly bearish. In March, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 12.4% year - on - year. In March, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a 81.4% year - on - year decrease, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a 31% year - on - year decrease. The Ministry of Agriculture estimated a 2024/2025 production of 6.16 million tons, imports of 1.5 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 14,232 yuan, with a basis of 1392 yuan (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's April 2024/2025 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with a net short position increase, and the main trend is bearish [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: The table shows cotton production, consumption, and other data of various countries from 2020/21 to 2024/25. For example, in 2024/25 (April), China's cotton production is 696.7 million tons, an increase of 5.4 million tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 17% [10]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: The table presents China's cotton supply - demand data from 2022/23 to 2024/25. In 2024/25 (April forecast), production is 6.16 million tons, imports are 1.5 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.31 million tons [19]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.