交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2026年1月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量 2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末 库存1653.2万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下降5.12%。11月份我国棉 花进口12万吨，同比增加9.4%；棉纱进口15万吨，同比增加25%。农村部12月25/26年度：产 量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万吨。偏多。 2、基差：现货3128b全 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯棉花行业分析师高飞唐 【导语】11月份中美关税下调，业者对进口外棉热情回升，叠加新季巴西棉到港窗口期到来，棉花进口 量同环比增加。12月份国内外棉花价差扩大，外棉性价比提升，棉企预购积极性高涨，预计12月份进口 量或达到15万吨。 11月份棉花进口量同环比均增加 据海关总署最新公布数据显示，2025年11月中国棉花进口量为11.87万吨，环比增加33.37%，同比增加 9.78%。2025年1-11月份中国累计进口棉花88.78万吨，累计进口量同比减少64.10%。中美双方下调关税 落实，国内纺织品出口预期提升，且棉企进口原棉信心增强。同时，随着新一年棉花进口配额发放临 近，进口商船货陆续到港，国内棉花进口量稳步回升，11月份棉花进口量在年内首度实现同比增长。 巴西棉进口窗口期打开，进口占比升至首位 按往年棉花进口规律，11月份前后是新季巴西棉集中到港窗口期。因此，今年11月份国内进口巴西棉明 显放量。据海关总署数据显示，11月份进口巴西棉数量6.78万吨，环比10月增加218.33%，占11月总进 口量的57.07%。进口占比排名第二 ...

品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美棉花 64.66 64.95 64.42 64.71 0.15% 【棉花市场消息速递】 北京时间12月1日，美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货价格区间震荡，今日开盘报64.70美分/磅，现报 64.57美分/磅，跌幅0.25%，盘中最高触及64.82美分/磅，最低下探64.53美分/磅。 更新时间： 棉花期货行情回顾： 11月28日美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货行情 美国农业部：截至10月16日当周，美国2025/2026年度陆地棉出口净销售为17.6万包，前一周为15.8万 包；2026/2027年度陆地棉净销售2.7万包，前一周为0万包；美国2025/2026年度陆地棉出口装船16万 包，前一周为13.9万包。 调研显示，截止至11月27日，进口棉主要港口库存周环比增加1.28%，总库存38.03万吨，其中，山东地 区青岛、济南港口及周边仓31.7万吨，同比减少22.87%，江苏地区张家港港口及周边仓库进口棉库存约 3.42万吨，其他港口库存约2.91万吨。 11月28日，全国3128皮棉到厂均价14896元/吨，涨80.00元/吨；全国32s纯棉纱环锭纺价格213 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: 20251031 Cotton Monthly Report: Pay Attention to the Opportunity of First Decline and Then Rise During the Pressure Transmission Period [1] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the cotton industry is neutral [3]. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the increasing supply of cotton from the US and other countries in the Southern Hemisphere is putting pressure on the market. Although Brazil is accelerating its exports, the continuous implementation of India's MSP provides some support for international cotton prices. The ICE market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a reference range of [63, 67] [3]. - Domestically, new cotton is expected to be harvested in about a week. After a slight increase in imports, the commercial inventory has recovered to the same level as the previous period, and the pressure on spot circulation is gradually increasing. The price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded recently, raising the average cost of new-season machine-picked lint cotton. On the demand side, the volume and price of downstream demand are still weakening, the enterprise load is seasonally weakening, and enterprises maintain just-in-time replenishment under the condition of few industrial orders. Pay attention to the sales speed and price during the pressure transmission process of inland warehouses to measure the profitability of inland buyers and the relief of the hedging density of all new cotton. During this period, the futures market may show a "first decline and then rise" trend. In terms of strategy, there is some support due to a slight increase in hedging pressure, but there is significant resistance to upward movement under the weak industrial driving force. Pay attention to the opportunity of high selling and low buying in the range of [13300, 13800] [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Factors - **International Macro**: The results of the China-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced. The US will cancel the 10% so-called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% counter - tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. The US will also suspend the implementation of the 50% penetrative export control rule and the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%. The European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive time, believing that inflation has reached the 2% target level [3]. - **Domestic Macro**: Not mentioned in the provided content. Supply - **International Supply**: New cotton is being harvested. As of now, 530,000 tons of new cotton have been inspected. In November, precipitation in major cotton - growing areas in the US will decrease, which is conducive to harvesting. In India, the MSP is gradually being implemented in the northern and central cotton - growing areas, but due to heavy precipitation, the MSP - based procurement has started slowly, and the daily listing volume of new cotton is about 12,000 tons. As of mid - October, the listing volume of new cotton in Pakistan was 588,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [3]. - **Domestic Supply**: - The national new cotton picking is approaching the end, with a progress of 79.7%, and it is expected to reach about 90% next week. The delivery progress is 88.5%, 4.3% faster than the same period last year; the inspection volume of new cotton has reached 1.68 million tons; the sales progress is 10.5%, 5.8% faster than the same period last year. The average purchase price of national seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, rising from 6.16 yuan/kg in the middle of the month to 6.32 yuan/kg. The average price of new - season machine - picked lint cotton has increased to around 14,500 yuan/ton, and the cost range of machine - picked lint cotton during the harvest period is 14,000 - 15,000 yuan/ton [10]. - This week, the national commercial cotton inventory increased by 408,200 tons to 1.8416 million tons, 76,600 tons lower than the same period last year; the commercial inventory in Xinjiang increased by 297,400 tons to 944,400 tons, 16,600 tons higher than the same period last year; the commercial inventory in major inland provinces decreased by 27,500 tons to 170,200 tons, 58,200 tons lower than the same period last year. In terms of finished products, the inventory days of pure cotton yarn decreased by 0.23 days to 31.02 days, the inventory days of terminal grey cloth decreased by 1.07 days to 23.01 days, and the inventory days of polyester - cotton yarn in the factory decreased by 0.15 days to 27.81 days [12]. - In September 2025, China imported about 100,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 18.7%; from January to September 2025, China imported about 680,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 69.8%. In September 2025, China imported about 127,700 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month decrease of 3.21% and a year - on - year increase of 15.02%. From January to September, the total import volume of cotton yarn in China was about 1.0366 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.44% [16]. - There are few cotton warehouse receipts left in Xinjiang, and the effective forecast volume far exceeds that of the same period last year [17]. Inventory - The national cotton commercial inventory continues to rise, basically converging the previous year - on - year difference and approaching the same - period level. The inventory in Xinjiang has exceeded the same - period level, while the change in inland inventory is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the pressure of passive inventory replenishment in inland areas. The inventory of downstream finished products has decreased slightly, and the overall inventory level is still relatively neutral. Most of the Xinjiang warehouse receipts have flowed out, and the remaining warehouse receipts are concentrated in inland cotton - growing areas. The forecast volume of new - cotton warehouse receipts in Xinjiang exceeds that of the same period [3]. Demand - **International Demand**: In the US, clothing retail and wholesale sales continued to grow strongly in August, but consumer confidence declined slightly in September. In September, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports decreased seasonally but were still higher year - on - year. The consumer confidence index in the EU showed signs of stabilizing and recovering in September. In August, the growth rate of clothing import volume decreased significantly, and the import amount decreased, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in price [3]. - **Domestic Demand**: - This week, the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills decreased slightly. Due to the recent increase in cotton prices and the difficulty of downstream yarn price support, the immediate profits of representative yarns have declined to varying degrees. The cumulative difference in the overall industry profit has been expanding this year. As of September, the cumulative year - on - year profit has rebounded to - 18.5% [20]. - This week, the total cotton cloth sales volume in the Light Textile City increased slightly, and the 5 - day moving average of cotton cloth sales volume increased from 386,000 meters to 390,000 meters, 74,000 meters higher than the same period. In Keqiao, the fabric price index decreased by 0.16 to 110.79, and the auxiliary material price index decreased by 1.45 to 110.98 [22]. - In September, the PMI of the cotton textile industry increased by 1.57% to 44.29%, 12.29% lower than the same period and below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. In terms of demand, the new order PMI increased by 1.98% to 48.72%, 9.44% lower than the same period; the operating rate PMI increased by 4.07% to 41.03%, 17.13% lower than the same period. In terms of inventory, the cotton yarn inventory PMI increased by 7.5% to 56.41%, 3.79% higher than the same period; the cotton inventory increased by 1.75% to 41.3%, 3.79% higher than the same period [24]. - In September, the total retail sales of enterprises above the designated size in clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles reached 123.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%, further increasing from the 3.1% year - on - year growth rate in August; from January to September, the cumulative total retail sales of enterprises above the designated size in clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles were 1.0613 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [26]. - In September, the "rush - to - export" effect continued to decline, and the year - on - year performance further weakened. The export of textile and clothing continued to be under pressure, and the export unit prices of clothing and yarn showed a slight divergence, but the export situation was still serious both year - on - year and month - on - month [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2025/26 global cotton production, consumption are increased, and the estimated ending inventory is decreased, which is relatively positive for the cotton market [2] - Domestically, the inventory remains at a low level, and the market supply is still tight. Downstream orders have slightly increased, while the spinning mills' operating rate remains low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,895 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 19,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 34,949 lots, down 4,544 lots; that of cotton yarn futures is - 172 lots, up 142 lots [2] - The main contract's open interest for cotton is 492,631 lots, down 5,664 lots; for cotton yarn, it is 20,282 lots, down 858 lots [2] - Cotton's warehouse receipt quantity is 4,759 sheets, down 140 sheets; cotton yarn's is 89 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,300 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan; China's yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,775 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,388 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,440 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2] - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) is 14,224 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,793 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 616 tons, an increase of 54 tons [2] - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,475 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 87 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 5 tons, an increase of 2 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110,000 tons, unchanged [2] - The profit of imported cotton is 1,025 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 148.17 tons, a decrease of 70.81 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; the grey fabric inventory days are 36.14 days, down 1.1 days [2] - The monthly output of cloth is 2.7 billion meters, down 0.79 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 199.15 tons, down 7.35 tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,516,175.9 million US dollars, down 10,495.5 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,160,400.9 million US dollars, down 44,419.8 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 11.06%, up 0.03%; that of put options is 11.09%, up 0.06% [2] - Cotton's 20 - day historical volatility is 9.75%, up 0.37%; 60 - day historical volatility is 7.04%, up 0.06% [2] Industry News - The US cotton supply - demand outlook for September 2025/26 shows a slight increase in production, while export, consumption, import or inventory remain unchanged. The US cotton production is expected to increase by 10,000 bales to 13.2 million bales [2] - As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate is 52%, down from 54% the previous week and up from 39% in the same period last year [2] - The USDA's September global cotton supply - demand report shows that the 2025/26 global cotton production forecast is increased by 23.1 tons to 2,562.2 tons, consumption is increased by 18.3 tons to 2,587.2 tons, and the ending inventory is decreased by 16.8 tons to 1,592.4 tons [2] Suggested Attention - No news today [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply factor has an upward impact on cotton prices. USDA's August report shows a reduction in the US cotton planting area by 8% to 9.3 million acres and a 15% cut in the harvest area to 7.4 million acres. The national cotton abandonment rate rose from 14% to 21% due to drought in the Southwest. The US cotton output decreased by 302,000 tons to 2.877 million tons compared to last month, while China's cotton output increased by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons. The global cotton output decreased by 391,000 tons month - on - month. The cotton market was volatile this week. Spinning mills' willingness to stock up remained weak during the off - season, and the pressure of finished product inventory eased. Weaving mills' weekly stocking willingness increased slightly, and inventory pressure also decreased [6]. - The demand factor has a downward impact on cotton prices. Spinning profit expanded slightly, and the loss in the inland area decreased [6]. - The inventory factor has an upward impact on cotton prices. BCO announced that the cotton social inventory at the end of July was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June and a 21% year - on - year decline. The de - stocking speed continued to accelerate, reaching the fastest rate of the year. The spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory maintained a downward trend. The operation rate of inland yarn mills remained weak. In the industrial chain inventory, the finished products still had high inventory, while the raw material inventory decreased [6]. - The warehouse receipt factor has a neutral impact on cotton prices. As of August 29, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 6,514, with 0 valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 260,500 tons, compared with 290,400 tons on August 22 [6]. - The basis factor has a neutral impact on cotton prices. The basis quotation for sales in Xinjiang remained firm, and the spot transaction price fluctuated with the futures price. The basis transaction price of machine - picked cotton grade 31, double 29, with less than 2.9% impurity in the Aksu area of southern Xinjiang for the 09 contract was between 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton [6]. - The cost factor has a neutral impact on cotton prices. The overall average cost of ginning factories this year, converted to the official standard, is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan. In the new year, with the withdrawal of some ginning factory capacities in northern Xinjiang and the poor overall demand outlook, the opening price is not expected to be high [6]. - The macro factor has a neutral impact on cotton prices. The market believes that China will continue to avoid excessive competition. With the recent weak economic data in China, the market is considering whether China will introduce more stimulus policies in the fourth quarter. The economic data in July were generally lower than expected, and the three major indicators declined simultaneously, showing a weak recovery pattern of "stable production, lower - than - expected consumption, and intensified investment differentiation", which is consistent with the seasonal decline of the manufacturing PMI in July and the negative growth of new credit in July, indicating insufficient domestic effective demand. The US entering the interest - rate cut channel was supported after Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22. Powell said that the inflation risk increased in the short term, but the impact of tariffs on prices might be one - time, and there was a downward risk in the employment market. The policy interest rate is in the restrictive range, and the Fed may adjust its policy according to the changing risk balance. After the speech, the market again bet on an interest - rate cut in September, and the probability of a rate cut increased from less than 80% to around 90% [6]. - The trading strategy is that there may still be a decline in the single - side market. In the medium - term, it is advisable to build long positions at low prices. In early September, if the US non - farm and inflation data are not conducive to the US Fed's interest - rate cut channel, it will be difficult for the overall commodities, including cotton, to rise significantly under the weak reality. After the new cotton is concentrated on the market, the selling hedging pressure in the market will lead to a callback. The upward space in January is limited. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see until the market price drops before buying the far - month contracts [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 01 Week - ly Core Points and Strategies - The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, warehouse receipts, basis, cost, and macro factors of cotton, and provides corresponding trading strategies [6] 02 Weekly Data Charts - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2020/21 to 2025/26 (August), the global cotton supply and demand situation has changed. The initial inventory, production, import, total supply, export, consumption, total consumption, and ending inventory have different trends. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has decreased from 58.54% to 62.65% [11]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Production Changes**: The cotton production of main producing countries such as China, the US, India, Pakistan, Australia, and Brazil has changed over the years. From 2020/21 to 2025/26, the global cotton production decreased by 2.75% year - on - year [12]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Demand Changes**: The cotton consumption of main consuming countries such as China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey, and Vietnam has changed over the years. From 2020/21 to 2025/26, the global cotton consumption increased by 0.02% year - on - year [13]. - **US Cotton Situation**: The US cotton weather has little impact on production. The US overall inventory cycle is transitioning from passive de - stocking to active restocking. The clothing inventory of US wholesalers and retailers is changing from continuous de - stocking in the past three years to appropriate active restocking. However, due to the Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement in May and the two rounds of import - rushing in the first half of the year, the retailer inventory has risen to a high level again, weakening the continuous restocking behavior to some extent [18][19] - **Domestic New - Year Cotton Situation**: The domestic new - year cotton planting area has expanded, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. The cotton import volume is low, and spinning mills are looking forward to import quotas. The de - stocking speed of China's cotton commercial inventory is fast. The industrial inventory of spinning mills is decreasing, the operation rate of inland yarn mills is still weak, the finished products in the industrial chain inventory remain highly stocked, and the raw material inventory is decreasing [23][25][40]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The report focuses on the cotton industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the international market, as of the week ending July 20th, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, showing an upward trend, while the boll-setting rate was 33%, with a slower growth progress. The external market has limited driving force and maintains a range-bound oscillation. In the domestic market, the sown area this year has increased year-on-year, and there is still an expectation of a bumper harvest. The recent increase in cotton prices has led to an increase in the sales of old cotton from the 2023/24 season and a slight decrease in the basis price of new cotton from the 2024/25 season. The supply side exerts short-term pressure on cotton prices. Although yarn prices have gradually followed the increase in cotton prices, the finished yarn inventory has not continued to accumulate due to the increased production restrictions of textile enterprises in inland areas. The cotton import volume in June remained at a low level, and the contradiction of tight commercial cotton inventory in the 2024/25 season still exists. In the short term, the main contract oscillates and adjusts, the positions shift to the far-month contracts, and the 9-1 spread converges [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillates and adjusts. The latest 328-grade cotton price index is 15,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The prices of different grades and regions of cotton vary, with the basis and fixed-price quotations showing different characteristics. The price of pure cotton yarn has increased, but the downstream demand is difficult to pick up significantly. Textile enterprises are still suffering large losses, and the operating rate has continued to decline due to high temperatures in inland areas. The market for pure cotton grey cloth has few inquiries, and most transactions are small and urgent orders [7] - **International Market**: As of the week ending July 20th, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, up from 54% the previous week and 53% in the same period last year; the boll-setting rate was 33%, up from 23% the previous week, lower than 40% in the same period last year and in line with the five-year average. The growth progress is slow but the good-to-excellent rate is improving. The external market has limited driving force and maintains a range-bound oscillation [8] 3.2 Industry News - As of the week ending July 20th, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, the boll-setting rate was 33%, and the budding rate was 71%. As of July 18th, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.4575 million tons, a decrease of 148,800 tons or 5.71% from the previous week [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, 9-1 spread, commercial and industrial cotton inventories, and the total number of warehouse receipts, among others [17][18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The external macro - environment is warming up, and the commodity market price has risen slightly. Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is likely to continue its strong - oscillating trend in the short term. The cotton growth in Xinjiang is better than last year, and the inventory is tight, which supports the price. Also, there are positive policy expectations in the domestic market [2][3][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 3.1.1 Weekly Data Overview - As of July 11, the CRB commodity price index rose to 303.52 points, up 3.69 points (1.23%) from July 4. Gold rose to $3370.3 per ounce, up $23.8, and crude oil rose to $68.75 per barrel, up $2.25. However, the prices of agricultural products such as US soybeans and corn declined. ICE cotton futures' December contract decreased to 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 cents (1.48%). The domestic cotton spot and futures prices increased slightly, but the spot trading was mostly sluggish [10] - The main contract of Zhengmian 09 closed at 13,885 yuan per ton on July 11, up 105 yuan from July 4, and the position increased by 9,428 lots to 556,000 lots [11] - The CNF quotes of imported cotton in major ports decreased. For example, the price of US E/MOTM decreased by 0.8 cents per pound, and the 1% customs - cleared price decreased by 139 yuan per ton [9] 3.2 Second Part: Basic Situation of the Domestic Market 3.2.1 Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends - On July 11, compared with July 4, the price trends of raw materials were mixed. The prices of polyester staple fiber and short - fiber futures decreased, while the prices of CCI3128 cotton and Zhengmian futures increased [15] 3.2.2 Cotton Yarn Price Trends - Except for T32S, the prices of domestic yarns increased. The prices of all imported yarns and imported cotton yarns in RMB terms also increased. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns and the price difference between domestic and imported cotton both expanded [18][20][22][24] 3.2.3 Comparison of Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - Included) - On July 11, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,266 yuan per ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty decreased, and the difference between Zhengmian and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty also decreased [27] 3.3 Third Part: Analysis of the Zhengmian Market 3.3.1 Zhengmian Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - As of July 11, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengmian were 9,850 lots (424,000 tons), and the valid forecasts were 234 lots (10,000 tons). The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 434,000 tons, down from 444,000 tons on July 4 [31] 3.3.2 Analysis of Zhengmian Futures - Spot Price Difference - On July 11, the difference between Zhengmian futures price and CCI3128B index was - 1,381 yuan per ton, and the difference expanded compared with July 4 [34] 3.3.3 Zhengmian Price Analysis - In terms of macro - environment, the US imposed new tariffs on some countries, and the Sino - US 10% reciprocal tariffs are due on August 12. Domestically, there are policies to promote the construction of a unified market and regulate the photovoltaic industry, and some commodity prices are strong [35] - In terms of supply, the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of June was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 18.18% from the previous month and 13.55% lower than the same period last year. The inventory depletion is fast, and the spot basis quotation of Xinjiang cotton is strong [36] - In terms of demand, due to the rising raw material costs, some spinning mills raised their quotes, but the downstream demand was weak, and the actual transaction price was flat or slightly increased. The profit of spinning mills was poor, with inland mills losing nearly 1,000 yuan per ton and Xinjiang mills at the break - even point [36] - Technically, the MACD red column of Zhengmian's main contract was expanding, and the DIFF and DEA were about to form a golden cross, and the KDJ was also about to form a golden cross [39] 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis 3.4.1 US Cotton Export Dynamics - From June 27 to July 3, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton was 17,010 tons, a significant increase from the previous week. The shipment of land cotton was 54,635 tons, a 6% decrease from the previous week. The net signing and shipment of Pima cotton also increased. As of July 3, 2025, the cumulative net signing of US 2024/25 - year cotton exports reached 110.98% of the annual expected export volume, and the shipment rate was 88.48% [42] - As of June 24, the CFTC fund's net long position increased by 4,789 lots compared with the previous week [44] 3.4.2 ICE Cotton Futures Analysis - On July 11, the ICE cotton futures' December contract was 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 cents (1.48%) from July 4. Technically, the MACD green column was expanding, and the DIFF and DEA formed a death cross, and the KDJ also formed a death cross [45] 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions - The price of Zhengmian increased slightly this week. The external macro - environment is favorable for commodity prices, and the change of Sino - US tariffs should be monitored [47] - The commercial inventory has reached a seven - year low, and the supply will be tight before the new cotton harvest. Downstream spinning mills can purchase raw materials in batches according to orders and consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of cotton purchase [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the upward pressure on cotton prices remains significant, and the driving force is weak. Considering the global and domestic cotton market conditions, it is expected that the cotton price will face substantial upward pressure, and it is advisable to gradually short the far - month contracts on rallies [35]. Summary According to the Directory International Cotton Market Analysis - **Global 2025/26 Cotton Supply and Demand**: In the USDA's June report, for the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, beginning/ending stocks, and trade volume are all adjusted downward. Production is cut by over 800,000 bales, with an increase in China's output and decreases in India, the US, and Pakistan. Consumption is reduced by over 300,000 bales. Ending stocks decline by nearly 1.6 million bales, and the stock - to - use ratio drops 0.2 percentage points month - on - month and 1.1 percentage points year - on - year. The global supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the production - consumption gap widens by 110,000 tons to - 170,000 tons [2]. - **US Cotton Supply and Weather**: The USDA's June report shows that for the 2025/26 season, US cotton production, beginning stocks, and ending stocks are adjusted downward month - on - month, while consumption, imports, and exports remain unchanged. Due to excessive rainfall and delayed sowing, the harvested area is cut by 2 percentage points to 8.19 million acres, and the average yield per acre drops by over 1 percentage point to 820 pounds/acre. The US cotton production is expected to be 14 million bales, 500,000 bales less than last month, the second - lowest in the past decade. Ending stocks are reduced by 900,000 bales to 4.3 million bales. As of July 6, 2025, the US cotton (American cotton) good - to - excellent rate is 52%, slightly up from the previous week (51%) but lower than the same period last year (45%). The squaring rate is 48%, and the boll - setting rate is 14% [5][7]. Domestic Cotton Fundamentals - **Expected Domestic Cotton Production in 2025/26**: In 2024, the domestic weather was suitable during the new cotton planting and growing period, with a record - high yield per unit of 2,171.6 kg/ha, a year - on - year increase of about 7.8%, and the total national output was around 6.7 million tons. In June 2025, the National Cotton Market Monitoring System's survey shows that the actual sown area in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 2.707 million mu or 6.3%. The expected total output will increase by 2.8% to 6.864 million tons, and the report estimates the output may be around 7 million tons [10]. - **Current Domestic Cotton Commercial and Industrial Inventories**: As of June 15, the national cotton commercial inventory is 3.1269 million tons, in a stable destocking state; the national cotton industrial inventory is 0.9301 million tons. The commercial inventory is at a relatively low level, and the industrial inventory is at the highest level in the same period of history, showing a state of low upstream inventory and high downstream inventory [14]. - **Continuous Accumulation of Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventories**: As of the end of May 2025, the yarn inventory of domestic textile enterprises is 22.34 days, an increase of 1.3 days from last month and a decrease of 5.2 days year - on - year. The grey cloth inventory is 32.9 days, an increase of 1.7 days from last month and 2 days year - on - year. Yarn and grey cloth are continuously accumulating inventory [16][19]. - **Weak Textile and Apparel Export Performance**: The US is one of the main export destinations for China's textile and apparel. From January to May 2025, the cumulative textile and apparel exports are $116.67 billion, a 1% increase. Among them, textile exports are $58.48 billion, a 2.5% increase, and apparel exports are $58.2 billion, a 0.5% decrease. In May, textile and apparel exports are $26.21 billion, a 0.6% increase and an 8.4% month - on - month increase. Textile exports are $12.63 billion, a 1.9% decrease and a 0.4% month - on - month increase, and apparel exports are $13.58 billion, a 3% increase and a 17% month - on - month increase [23][25]. - **Low Growth Rate of Domestic Textile and Apparel Consumption**: From January to May 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods are 20.3171 trillion yuan, a 5% year - on - year increase. In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods are 4.1326 trillion yuan, a 6.4% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate rebounds by 1.3 percentage points month - on - month. From January to May 2025, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles are 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% year - on - year increase. In May, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles are 122.5 billion yuan, a 4% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate expands by 1.8 percentage points month - on - month [29]. - **Poor Downstream Immediate Textile Profits**: As of the end of June, the domestic immediate yarn - cotton price difference is around 5,400 yuan/ton, continuously declining this year and at a relatively low historical level. In 2024, the overall yarn - cotton price difference was in the range of 6,000 - 6,600 yuan/ton. Downstream textile enterprises have suffered large losses for a long time, which has a significant negative feedback on the upstream raw material prices, and the low downstream profits make it difficult to actively replenish inventory [31]. Trading Logic - **Global Perspective**: According to the USDA balance sheet, in the 2025/26 season, the global cotton supply - demand is in a weak balance. The current US weather is favorable for cotton growth, and the US good - to - excellent rate remains at a high level. There is also a lot of uncertainty in global tariffs, and both supply and demand have large adjustment spaces [32][35]. - **Domestic Perspective**: Currently, the domestic commercial inventory is at a low level, but the industrial inventory is at a high level, and the downstream yarn and grey cloth inventories are continuously accumulating. The losses of downstream textile enterprises have generally increased, and even Xinjiang yarn mills are on the verge of break - even. The willingness of the industrial chain to replenish inventory is low [35]. - **Demand Aspect**: The export demand for textiles is weak, and domestic consumption is also sluggish. Under the situation of tariff frictions, there is a lot of uncertainty in future exports. It is difficult to see variables that can significantly improve consumption in the short term [35]. - **Price Outlook**: The high inventory of domestic cotton spinning mid - and downstream finished products, combined with widespread losses, restrains the willingness of future yarn mills and grey cloth mills to replenish raw material inventory. The planting area of Xinjiang cotton has increased in the new season, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is strong. It is expected that the upward pressure on cotton prices will still be significant, and it is advisable to gradually short the far - month contracts on rallies [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - ICE cotton futures are in a volatile market. The end of the July contract, the easing of the Middle - East situation, and the dovish remarks of Federal Reserve officials have pushed up market risk appetite and led to a rebound from the low level. Attention should be paid to the US Department of Agriculture's area outlook report on June 30 and the results of US tariff negotiations with other countries [18]. - Domestic cotton futures continue to rise in a volatile manner, following the fluctuations of the financial market sentiment. The price is supported by concerns about tight domestic cotton inventory, but the poor downstream operation restricts the upward momentum. Overall, it is still in a volatile trend. To break through the resistance at 14,100, more supply - side drivers are needed, and attention should be paid to the financial market sentiment and international economic and trade situation [2][18]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Continuation: Open price 66.70, high 69.52, low 66.27, close 69.32, up 2.56, up 3.83%, volume 124,415 lots, volume change 14,821 lots, open interest 152,992 lots, open interest change - 3,971 lots [5]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Continuation: Open price 13,500, high 13,775, low 13,425, close 13,760, up 265, up 1.96%, volume 1,042,381 lots, volume change 310,558 lots, open interest 591,022 lots, open interest change 66,040 lots [5]. - Cotton Yarn Main Continuation: Open price 19,740, high 20,155, low 19,660, close 20,105, up 370, up 1.87%, volume 39,928 lots, volume change 5,128 lots, open interest 21,860 lots, open interest change 203 lots [5]. 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton has continued to rebound, rising nearly 4% from the low this week. The end of the July contract has relieved the pressure of US cotton warehouse receipts, and the easing of the Middle - East situation and optimistic expectations for tariff negotiations have contributed to the rebound [1][5]. - US cotton weekly export sales data: As of the week ending June 19, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 0.62 million tons, down 67% week - on - week and 71% from the four - week average; weekly shipments were 4.18 million tons, down 10% week - on - week and 29% from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in 2024/25 was 2.7559 billion tons, accounting for 110.2% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipments accounted for 85% of the total annual contracts [6]. - India: Sowing progress exceeds last year. In 2024/25, domestic production increased by 980,000 bales to 30.12 million bales, and consumption decreased by 200,000 bales to 30.5 million bales. As of June 20, the cotton planting area was 1.3784 million hectares, an increase of 105,300 hectares compared to last year. In April, raw cotton imports increased by 33% month - on - month, and exports decreased by 27% month - on - month. Textile exports in April were $1.925 billion, down 8% month - on - month and up 17% year - on - year [8]. - Brazil: The new crop has started to be harvested. The 2025 cotton production forecast has been raised to 3.915 million tons. 97% of the 2024 crop has been sold, about 65% of the 2025 crop has been sold in the first - hand, and about 25% of the 2026 expected production has been sold to traders. The cotton export volume in the first two weeks of June is expected to be about 72,000 tons [8]. - Turkey: Textile enterprises are in a low - mood. The next - season consumption is expected to decline, and the current crop output is predicted to be about 800,000 tons, down from 850,000 tons in 2024/25 [9]. - Pakistan: Cotton import demand is weak. As of June 19, the actual sowing area in Punjab reached 89% of the plan, and Sindh only completed 65%. The early - stage output forecast remains between 6.5 million and 7.5 million bales. The export volume of five major textile categories in May was $1.26 billion, up 26.5% month - on - month but slightly lower than last year [10]. - Bangladesh: Waiting for the clarification of US tariff policies. Cotton demand has slightly increased recently, but new orders are emerging more slowly. The IMF has approved a loan of about $1.3 billion [11]. - Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates: As of the week ending June 27, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 73%, Vietnam's was 65%, and Pakistan's was 60% [11]. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton spot trading is weak with rising prices. Spot trading is generally cold, and textile enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases. As of June 27, the total number of No. 1 cotton registered warehouse receipts and forecast warehouse receipts was 10,597, equivalent to 445,074 tons [12]. - Downstream trading remains sluggish. The pure - cotton yarn market is in a slack season, with prices rising slightly in some areas. Spinning enterprises are suffering large losses, and their inventory is increasing. The full - cotton grey fabric market is also in a slack season, with prices stable, and weaving factories may further reduce prices to destock. The current startup level is 45.5%, lower than the same period in previous years [13][14]. 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning enterprise cotton inventory, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [15][16][17]. 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures are in a volatile market. Pay attention to the US Department of Agriculture's area outlook report on June 30 and the results of US tariff negotiations with other countries [18]. - Domestic cotton futures are also in a volatile trend. To break through the resistance at 14,100, more supply - side drivers are needed, and attention should be paid to the financial market sentiment and international economic and trade situation [18].