Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The report focuses on the cotton industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the international market, as of the week ending July 20th, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, showing an upward trend, while the boll-setting rate was 33%, with a slower growth progress. The external market has limited driving force and maintains a range-bound oscillation. In the domestic market, the sown area this year has increased year-on-year, and there is still an expectation of a bumper harvest. The recent increase in cotton prices has led to an increase in the sales of old cotton from the 2023/24 season and a slight decrease in the basis price of new cotton from the 2024/25 season. The supply side exerts short-term pressure on cotton prices. Although yarn prices have gradually followed the increase in cotton prices, the finished yarn inventory has not continued to accumulate due to the increased production restrictions of textile enterprises in inland areas. The cotton import volume in June remained at a low level, and the contradiction of tight commercial cotton inventory in the 2024/25 season still exists. In the short term, the main contract oscillates and adjusts, the positions shift to the far-month contracts, and the 9-1 spread converges [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillates and adjusts. The latest 328-grade cotton price index is 15,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The prices of different grades and regions of cotton vary, with the basis and fixed-price quotations showing different characteristics. The price of pure cotton yarn has increased, but the downstream demand is difficult to pick up significantly. Textile enterprises are still suffering large losses, and the operating rate has continued to decline due to high temperatures in inland areas. The market for pure cotton grey cloth has few inquiries, and most transactions are small and urgent orders [7] - **International Market**: As of the week ending July 20th, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, up from 54% the previous week and 53% in the same period last year; the boll-setting rate was 33%, up from 23% the previous week, lower than 40% in the same period last year and in line with the five-year average. The growth progress is slow but the good-to-excellent rate is improving. The external market has limited driving force and maintains a range-bound oscillation [8] 3.2 Industry News - As of the week ending July 20th, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, the boll-setting rate was 33%, and the budding rate was 71%. As of July 18th, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.4575 million tons, a decrease of 148,800 tons or 5.71% from the previous week [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, 9-1 spread, commercial and industrial cotton inventories, and the total number of warehouse receipts, among others [17][18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The external macro - environment is warming up, and the commodity market price has risen slightly. Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is likely to continue its strong - oscillating trend in the short term. The cotton growth in Xinjiang is better than last year, and the inventory is tight, which supports the price. Also, there are positive policy expectations in the domestic market [2][3][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 3.1.1 Weekly Data Overview - As of July 11, the CRB commodity price index rose to 303.52 points, up 3.69 points (1.23%) from July 4. Gold rose to $3370.3 per ounce, up $23.8, and crude oil rose to $68.75 per barrel, up $2.25. However, the prices of agricultural products such as US soybeans and corn declined. ICE cotton futures' December contract decreased to 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 cents (1.48%). The domestic cotton spot and futures prices increased slightly, but the spot trading was mostly sluggish [10] - The main contract of Zhengmian 09 closed at 13,885 yuan per ton on July 11, up 105 yuan from July 4, and the position increased by 9,428 lots to 556,000 lots [11] - The CNF quotes of imported cotton in major ports decreased. For example, the price of US E/MOTM decreased by 0.8 cents per pound, and the 1% customs - cleared price decreased by 139 yuan per ton [9] 3.2 Second Part: Basic Situation of the Domestic Market 3.2.1 Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends - On July 11, compared with July 4, the price trends of raw materials were mixed. The prices of polyester staple fiber and short - fiber futures decreased, while the prices of CCI3128 cotton and Zhengmian futures increased [15] 3.2.2 Cotton Yarn Price Trends - Except for T32S, the prices of domestic yarns increased. The prices of all imported yarns and imported cotton yarns in RMB terms also increased. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns and the price difference between domestic and imported cotton both expanded [18][20][22][24] 3.2.3 Comparison of Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - Included) - On July 11, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,266 yuan per ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty decreased, and the difference between Zhengmian and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty also decreased [27] 3.3 Third Part: Analysis of the Zhengmian Market 3.3.1 Zhengmian Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - As of July 11, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengmian were 9,850 lots (424,000 tons), and the valid forecasts were 234 lots (10,000 tons). The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 434,000 tons, down from 444,000 tons on July 4 [31] 3.3.2 Analysis of Zhengmian Futures - Spot Price Difference - On July 11, the difference between Zhengmian futures price and CCI3128B index was - 1,381 yuan per ton, and the difference expanded compared with July 4 [34] 3.3.3 Zhengmian Price Analysis - In terms of macro - environment, the US imposed new tariffs on some countries, and the Sino - US 10% reciprocal tariffs are due on August 12. Domestically, there are policies to promote the construction of a unified market and regulate the photovoltaic industry, and some commodity prices are strong [35] - In terms of supply, the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of June was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 18.18% from the previous month and 13.55% lower than the same period last year. The inventory depletion is fast, and the spot basis quotation of Xinjiang cotton is strong [36] - In terms of demand, due to the rising raw material costs, some spinning mills raised their quotes, but the downstream demand was weak, and the actual transaction price was flat or slightly increased. The profit of spinning mills was poor, with inland mills losing nearly 1,000 yuan per ton and Xinjiang mills at the break - even point [36] - Technically, the MACD red column of Zhengmian's main contract was expanding, and the DIFF and DEA were about to form a golden cross, and the KDJ was also about to form a golden cross [39] 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis 3.4.1 US Cotton Export Dynamics - From June 27 to July 3, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton was 17,010 tons, a significant increase from the previous week. The shipment of land cotton was 54,635 tons, a 6% decrease from the previous week. The net signing and shipment of Pima cotton also increased. As of July 3, 2025, the cumulative net signing of US 2024/25 - year cotton exports reached 110.98% of the annual expected export volume, and the shipment rate was 88.48% [42] - As of June 24, the CFTC fund's net long position increased by 4,789 lots compared with the previous week [44] 3.4.2 ICE Cotton Futures Analysis - On July 11, the ICE cotton futures' December contract was 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 cents (1.48%) from July 4. Technically, the MACD green column was expanding, and the DIFF and DEA formed a death cross, and the KDJ also formed a death cross [45] 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions - The price of Zhengmian increased slightly this week. The external macro - environment is favorable for commodity prices, and the change of Sino - US tariffs should be monitored [47] - The commercial inventory has reached a seven - year low, and the supply will be tight before the new cotton harvest. Downstream spinning mills can purchase raw materials in batches according to orders and consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of cotton purchase [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the upward pressure on cotton prices remains significant, and the driving force is weak. Considering the global and domestic cotton market conditions, it is expected that the cotton price will face substantial upward pressure, and it is advisable to gradually short the far - month contracts on rallies [35]. Summary According to the Directory International Cotton Market Analysis - **Global 2025/26 Cotton Supply and Demand**: In the USDA's June report, for the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, beginning/ending stocks, and trade volume are all adjusted downward. Production is cut by over 800,000 bales, with an increase in China's output and decreases in India, the US, and Pakistan. Consumption is reduced by over 300,000 bales. Ending stocks decline by nearly 1.6 million bales, and the stock - to - use ratio drops 0.2 percentage points month - on - month and 1.1 percentage points year - on - year. The global supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the production - consumption gap widens by 110,000 tons to - 170,000 tons [2]. - **US Cotton Supply and Weather**: The USDA's June report shows that for the 2025/26 season, US cotton production, beginning stocks, and ending stocks are adjusted downward month - on - month, while consumption, imports, and exports remain unchanged. Due to excessive rainfall and delayed sowing, the harvested area is cut by 2 percentage points to 8.19 million acres, and the average yield per acre drops by over 1 percentage point to 820 pounds/acre. The US cotton production is expected to be 14 million bales, 500,000 bales less than last month, the second - lowest in the past decade. Ending stocks are reduced by 900,000 bales to 4.3 million bales. As of July 6, 2025, the US cotton (American cotton) good - to - excellent rate is 52%, slightly up from the previous week (51%) but lower than the same period last year (45%). The squaring rate is 48%, and the boll - setting rate is 14% [5][7]. Domestic Cotton Fundamentals - **Expected Domestic Cotton Production in 2025/26**: In 2024, the domestic weather was suitable during the new cotton planting and growing period, with a record - high yield per unit of 2,171.6 kg/ha, a year - on - year increase of about 7.8%, and the total national output was around 6.7 million tons. In June 2025, the National Cotton Market Monitoring System's survey shows that the actual sown area in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 2.707 million mu or 6.3%. The expected total output will increase by 2.8% to 6.864 million tons, and the report estimates the output may be around 7 million tons [10]. - **Current Domestic Cotton Commercial and Industrial Inventories**: As of June 15, the national cotton commercial inventory is 3.1269 million tons, in a stable destocking state; the national cotton industrial inventory is 0.9301 million tons. The commercial inventory is at a relatively low level, and the industrial inventory is at the highest level in the same period of history, showing a state of low upstream inventory and high downstream inventory [14]. - **Continuous Accumulation of Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventories**: As of the end of May 2025, the yarn inventory of domestic textile enterprises is 22.34 days, an increase of 1.3 days from last month and a decrease of 5.2 days year - on - year. The grey cloth inventory is 32.9 days, an increase of 1.7 days from last month and 2 days year - on - year. Yarn and grey cloth are continuously accumulating inventory [16][19]. - **Weak Textile and Apparel Export Performance**: The US is one of the main export destinations for China's textile and apparel. From January to May 2025, the cumulative textile and apparel exports are $116.67 billion, a 1% increase. Among them, textile exports are $58.48 billion, a 2.5% increase, and apparel exports are $58.2 billion, a 0.5% decrease. In May, textile and apparel exports are $26.21 billion, a 0.6% increase and an 8.4% month - on - month increase. Textile exports are $12.63 billion, a 1.9% decrease and a 0.4% month - on - month increase, and apparel exports are $13.58 billion, a 3% increase and a 17% month - on - month increase [23][25]. - **Low Growth Rate of Domestic Textile and Apparel Consumption**: From January to May 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods are 20.3171 trillion yuan, a 5% year - on - year increase. In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods are 4.1326 trillion yuan, a 6.4% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate rebounds by 1.3 percentage points month - on - month. From January to May 2025, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles are 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% year - on - year increase. In May, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles are 122.5 billion yuan, a 4% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate expands by 1.8 percentage points month - on - month [29]. - **Poor Downstream Immediate Textile Profits**: As of the end of June, the domestic immediate yarn - cotton price difference is around 5,400 yuan/ton, continuously declining this year and at a relatively low historical level. In 2024, the overall yarn - cotton price difference was in the range of 6,000 - 6,600 yuan/ton. Downstream textile enterprises have suffered large losses for a long time, which has a significant negative feedback on the upstream raw material prices, and the low downstream profits make it difficult to actively replenish inventory [31]. Trading Logic - **Global Perspective**: According to the USDA balance sheet, in the 2025/26 season, the global cotton supply - demand is in a weak balance. The current US weather is favorable for cotton growth, and the US good - to - excellent rate remains at a high level. There is also a lot of uncertainty in global tariffs, and both supply and demand have large adjustment spaces [32][35]. - **Domestic Perspective**: Currently, the domestic commercial inventory is at a low level, but the industrial inventory is at a high level, and the downstream yarn and grey cloth inventories are continuously accumulating. The losses of downstream textile enterprises have generally increased, and even Xinjiang yarn mills are on the verge of break - even. The willingness of the industrial chain to replenish inventory is low [35]. - **Demand Aspect**: The export demand for textiles is weak, and domestic consumption is also sluggish. Under the situation of tariff frictions, there is a lot of uncertainty in future exports. It is difficult to see variables that can significantly improve consumption in the short term [35]. - **Price Outlook**: The high inventory of domestic cotton spinning mid - and downstream finished products, combined with widespread losses, restrains the willingness of future yarn mills and grey cloth mills to replenish raw material inventory. The planting area of Xinjiang cotton has increased in the new season, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is strong. It is expected that the upward pressure on cotton prices will still be significant, and it is advisable to gradually short the far - month contracts on rallies [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - ICE cotton futures are in a volatile market. The end of the July contract, the easing of the Middle - East situation, and the dovish remarks of Federal Reserve officials have pushed up market risk appetite and led to a rebound from the low level. Attention should be paid to the US Department of Agriculture's area outlook report on June 30 and the results of US tariff negotiations with other countries [18]. - Domestic cotton futures continue to rise in a volatile manner, following the fluctuations of the financial market sentiment. The price is supported by concerns about tight domestic cotton inventory, but the poor downstream operation restricts the upward momentum. Overall, it is still in a volatile trend. To break through the resistance at 14,100, more supply - side drivers are needed, and attention should be paid to the financial market sentiment and international economic and trade situation [2][18]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Continuation: Open price 66.70, high 69.52, low 66.27, close 69.32, up 2.56, up 3.83%, volume 124,415 lots, volume change 14,821 lots, open interest 152,992 lots, open interest change - 3,971 lots [5]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Continuation: Open price 13,500, high 13,775, low 13,425, close 13,760, up 265, up 1.96%, volume 1,042,381 lots, volume change 310,558 lots, open interest 591,022 lots, open interest change 66,040 lots [5]. - Cotton Yarn Main Continuation: Open price 19,740, high 20,155, low 19,660, close 20,105, up 370, up 1.87%, volume 39,928 lots, volume change 5,128 lots, open interest 21,860 lots, open interest change 203 lots [5]. 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton has continued to rebound, rising nearly 4% from the low this week. The end of the July contract has relieved the pressure of US cotton warehouse receipts, and the easing of the Middle - East situation and optimistic expectations for tariff negotiations have contributed to the rebound [1][5]. - US cotton weekly export sales data: As of the week ending June 19, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 0.62 million tons, down 67% week - on - week and 71% from the four - week average; weekly shipments were 4.18 million tons, down 10% week - on - week and 29% from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in 2024/25 was 2.7559 billion tons, accounting for 110.2% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipments accounted for 85% of the total annual contracts [6]. - India: Sowing progress exceeds last year. In 2024/25, domestic production increased by 980,000 bales to 30.12 million bales, and consumption decreased by 200,000 bales to 30.5 million bales. As of June 20, the cotton planting area was 1.3784 million hectares, an increase of 105,300 hectares compared to last year. In April, raw cotton imports increased by 33% month - on - month, and exports decreased by 27% month - on - month. Textile exports in April were $1.925 billion, down 8% month - on - month and up 17% year - on - year [8]. - Brazil: The new crop has started to be harvested. The 2025 cotton production forecast has been raised to 3.915 million tons. 97% of the 2024 crop has been sold, about 65% of the 2025 crop has been sold in the first - hand, and about 25% of the 2026 expected production has been sold to traders. The cotton export volume in the first two weeks of June is expected to be about 72,000 tons [8]. - Turkey: Textile enterprises are in a low - mood. The next - season consumption is expected to decline, and the current crop output is predicted to be about 800,000 tons, down from 850,000 tons in 2024/25 [9]. - Pakistan: Cotton import demand is weak. As of June 19, the actual sowing area in Punjab reached 89% of the plan, and Sindh only completed 65%. The early - stage output forecast remains between 6.5 million and 7.5 million bales. The export volume of five major textile categories in May was $1.26 billion, up 26.5% month - on - month but slightly lower than last year [10]. - Bangladesh: Waiting for the clarification of US tariff policies. Cotton demand has slightly increased recently, but new orders are emerging more slowly. The IMF has approved a loan of about $1.3 billion [11]. - Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates: As of the week ending June 27, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 73%, Vietnam's was 65%, and Pakistan's was 60% [11]. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton spot trading is weak with rising prices. Spot trading is generally cold, and textile enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases. As of June 27, the total number of No. 1 cotton registered warehouse receipts and forecast warehouse receipts was 10,597, equivalent to 445,074 tons [12]. - Downstream trading remains sluggish. The pure - cotton yarn market is in a slack season, with prices rising slightly in some areas. Spinning enterprises are suffering large losses, and their inventory is increasing. The full - cotton grey fabric market is also in a slack season, with prices stable, and weaving factories may further reduce prices to destock. The current startup level is 45.5%, lower than the same period in previous years [13][14]. 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning enterprise cotton inventory, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [15][16][17]. 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures are in a volatile market. Pay attention to the US Department of Agriculture's area outlook report on June 30 and the results of US tariff negotiations with other countries [18]. - Domestic cotton futures are also in a volatile trend. To break through the resistance at 14,100, more supply - side drivers are needed, and attention should be paid to the financial market sentiment and international economic and trade situation [18].

Report Overview - Report title: [Galaxy Research] Investigation Report on Cotton Planting and Inventory in Northern Xinjiang (II) [2] - Report date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [7] Research Background - The cotton planting area will continue to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the report aims to understand the change in Xinjiang's cotton output [3] - Xinjiang's spinning capacity is approaching 30 million spindles and still expanding, and the report wants to know the operation of textile enterprises under the deteriorating international trade environment [3] - With the accelerating出库 speed of Xinjiang cotton, the report intends to find out the real inventory situation due to concerns about tight supply during the off - season before new cotton is on the market [3] Research Route - Urumqi - Wujiaqu - Shihezi - Kuitun - Jinghe [4] Research Findings Spinning Enterprise D - Enterprise situation: It has a capacity of about 100,000 spindles, two processing workshops (self - operated and contract - processing), 30 - 50 employees, mainly produces pure - cotton yarn C32S and C40S, and the processing fee is 4000 - 5000 yuan/ton with different varieties having different fees [6] - Startup situation: Its textile machines in Xinjiang are mostly running, while its inland spinning mills operate during off - peak hours at night as many inland spinning machines are shut down [8] - Inventory: Since it mainly does contract - processing, its cotton and yarn inventories are small [9] - Order situation: Orders are average, and the high impurity in cotton affects yarn quality [9] - Market outlook: The downstream market is average, cotton prices may have small fluctuations. The enthusiasm of ginning factories in Northern Xinjiang to lease factories is low, and some have the idea of selling off, showing less confidence than in previous years [9] Warehouse E - Enterprise situation: It has a storage capacity of about 150,000 tons [10] - Cotton inventory: The incoming volume this year accounts for about 50% of the total capacity. The peak outgoing volume can reach 2000 tons/day, with peak periods after the Spring Festival and in April. The outgoing speed has slowed down recently, and the remaining inventory is small, with most goods owned by large enterprises and little by private enterprises [10] Warehouse F - Enterprise and inventory situation: It has a small storage capacity of 40,000 - 50,000 tons, and the remaining cotton inventory is low. The outgoing speed has slowed down recently. The cotton outgoing progress this year is slightly faster than last year, with 20+ trucks per day during the peak last year and 3 - 4 trucks per day recently [11] Warehouse G - Enterprise and inventory situation: It is a large warehouse with a capacity of 400,000 - 500,000 tons. The incoming volume this year is slightly less, about 300,000 - 350,000 tons. It still has some inventory, and the outgoing speed has slowed down recently after being fast after the Spring Festival and maintaining a basic volume in March and April [12] - Other: The new cotton is growing well, and the output in the new season may not change much compared to this season. Some ginning factories in Northern Xinjiang plan to lease or sell off, and the willingness of enterprises to lease factories is low this year [12]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for different agricultural products: - **Oscillation**: Oils and fats, protein meal, corn and starch, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp [4][5][6][7][8][9][11] - **Oscillation on the strong side**: Corn and starch [5] - **Oscillation on the weak side**: Livestock, cotton, sugar, log [6][9][11][12] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Protein Meal**: With the increase in soybean premium and the rise in the futures market leading the spot market, the basis weakens. It is expected that before the weather speculation, US soybeans will maintain a range - bound oscillation. Under the pressure of increasing domestic supply, the spot price of soybean meal is expected to be weaker than the futures market, and the basis will continue to be weak. The futures market of soybean meal will move within a range following US soybeans [1][2][4]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market sentiment has weakened. In the medium - term, driven by trade policies, overseas biodiesel policies, and the supply of oilseeds, the oils and fats market is expected to maintain a range - bound operation. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of technical support [4]. - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price remains strong, while the futures market rises first and then falls. In the medium - term, it is expected to operate on the strong side with oscillations. The continuous tightening of imported grains further confirms the expectation of inventory reduction, but continuous sharp increases are unlikely, and attention should be paid to potential negative factors such as import auctions [4][5]. - **Livestock**: In the short - term, the spot price of livestock is weak due to the off - season demand. In the long - term, the supply pressure will continue to increase, and the price is expected to be weak with oscillations. The near - term market is under pressure, while the far - term market may improve due to expectations of inventory clearance and capacity adjustment [6]. - **Natural Rubber**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the impact of commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment is significant. The downward trend may continue. Although the futures market may temporarily stabilize and rebound slightly with the improvement of macro - sentiment, attention should be paid to the performance after the futures market reaches the pressure level [6][7]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The trading of raw materials is weak, and the rise of the futures market is blocked. Attention should be paid to the support level of the futures market after the price of butadiene stabilizes. The futures market of synthetic rubber is expected to temporarily stabilize but still face pressure from above [8][9]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it will oscillate within the range of 13,000 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and in the long - term, it will be weak with oscillations. Although the current low inventory may support the near - term contracts, the expected increase in new crop production will put pressure on the price in the long - term [9]. - **Sugar**: In the long - term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season, the sugar price has a downward driving force; in the short - term, the weakening of the external market leads to a decline in valuation, and the sugar price is weak with oscillations [11]. - **Paper Pulp**: The market operates flatly and is expected to oscillate. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, but the correction of the valuation of Russian needles may support the futures market [11]. - **Log**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market corrects. In the short - term, it is expected to be weak, and the volatility increases [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Market Outlook** - **Oils and Fats**: The market sentiment is weakening. Due to the optimistic sentiment of Sino - US trade negotiations and the good growth of US soybeans, the US soybean and soybean oil futures markets show different trends. Domestically, the cost of imported South American soybeans has increased, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil is expected to rise. For palm oil, the production and export in May in Malaysia were higher than expected, and the inventory was slightly lower than expected. The export in early June is expected to increase, and the short - term production pressure may decrease marginally. For rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory is slowly decreasing but still at a high level, and the import volume may gradually decrease in the future [4]. - **Protein Meal**: Internationally, the sowing and emergence of US soybeans are going smoothly, but there is a trend of increasing drought in the quarterly outlook. The premium of South American soybeans is rising, and the average daily export volume in the first week of June decreased year - on - year. It is expected that the price of US soybeans will oscillate within a range. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal continues to rise slightly, but the transaction volume of spot and basis has decreased significantly. The supply pressure restricts the increase of the spot price. The profit of oil mills has increased, and the inventory of soybean meal is expected to rise seasonally, putting pressure on the basis. The downstream inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the downstream is becoming more cautious after replenishing at low levels. The inventory of breeding sows has increased year - on - year, indicating that the rigid demand for soybean meal consumption may increase steadily [1][4]. - **Corn and Starch**: Affected by the start of the minimum purchase price policy for wheat in Henan, the market sentiment is bullish. The continuous tightening of imported grains confirms the expectation of inventory reduction. However, the arrival of new wheat has reduced the demand for corn, and the futures market has fallen due to profit - taking by long - positions. In the medium - term, it is expected to operate on the strong side with oscillations [4][5]. - **Livestock**: After the recent sharp decline in pig prices, the state will conduct a central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage, which boosts market sentiment. However, the inventory pressure is still high, and the fundamentals are still loose. In the short - term, the slaughter weight of livestock decreases, and the supply of large pigs increases. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets from January to April 2025 continued to increase, and it is expected that the supply of livestock will increase in the third quarter. In the long - term, the production capacity is still at a high level, and the motivation for capacity reduction is insufficient. The demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be weak with oscillations [6]. - **Natural Rubber**: The macro - sentiment is strong, and the rubber price rebounds but is blocked near the pressure level. The implementation of zero - tariff policies for African products may have an impact on the market, but it needs further observation. The supply side is affected by the rainy season in Thailand, and the raw material price has rebounded recently. The demand side shows weak recovery in tire production, and the inventory problem has not been significantly improved. The downward trend may continue [6][7]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The trading of butadiene is weak, which drags down the futures market. Although it rebounded slightly in the afternoon, the overall decline was small. The fundamentals have not changed much. The purchase of butadiene is expected to provide short - term support, and the futures market is expected to temporarily stabilize but still face pressure from above [8][9]. - **Cotton**: Driven by the improvement of macro - sentiment and the expectation of tight supply, the cotton price rebounds. The planting area of new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase, and the production may increase if there is no extreme weather. The demand side has weakened recently, and the inventory is decreasing faster than before, which may support the price in the short - term. In the long - term, the expected increase in new crop production will put pressure on the price [9]. - **Sugar**: The market is trading in advance the expectation of a loose global sugar market supply in the 25/26 crushing season. Brazil, India, Thailand, and China are all expected to have good production. Although the production data in the first half of May in Brazil decreased year - on - year, the overall optimistic expectation remains unchanged. In China, the production of the 24/25 crushing season has ended, with a high sales rate and low inventory, but there is pressure from subsequent arrivals. The sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term and weak with oscillations in the short - term [11]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures market moves horizontally, and the near - term contracts are weak. The supply - demand situation shows that the warehouse receipts are decreasing, the supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, the demand is weak, and there are news of strikes and price - holding by pulp mills. The previous rebound of the futures market was mainly due to the correction of the valuation of Russian needles, and now it is approaching the end of the correction. The overall supply - demand is weak, and the futures market is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Log**: As the delivery of the LG2507 contract approaches, the game between long and short positions intensifies, and the futures market fluctuates sharply. In the short - term, it is expected to be weak. Fundamentally, the supply of logs is accumulating, and the spot price is under pressure [12]. **Variety Data Monitoring** The document lists the data monitoring sections for various products such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, livestock, rubber, cotton, sugar, paper pulp, and log, but specific data details are not fully presented in the text.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton lacks fundamental upward drivers and is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations until there are new weather problems in US cotton - growing areas or significant changes in US trade agreements [4][16] - Domestic cotton futures follow the overall financial market sentiment. Concerns about tightening domestic cotton inventories drive the basis stronger, but if the downstream business situation deteriorates, the de - stocking momentum may slow, and the basis may not continue to rise. Cotton futures are also expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [1][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract: opened at 65.16, reached a high of 66.70, a low of 64.71, and closed at 65.58, up 0.49 (0.75%). The trading volume was 131,983 lots, an increase of 48,661 lots, and the open interest was 111,792 lots, an increase of 543 lots [4] - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opened at 13,305, reached a high of 13,395, a low of 13,200, and closed at 13,360, up 85 (0.64%). The trading volume was 678,385 lots, a decrease of 189,744 lots, and the open interest was 530,650 lots, a decrease of 15,282 lots [4] - Cotton yarn main contract: opened at 19,555, reached a high of 19,690, a low of 19,415, and closed at 19,630, up 105 (0.54%). The trading volume was 19,681 lots, a decrease of 14,623 lots, and the open interest was 12,592 lots, an increase of 7,506 lots [4] 2. 基本面 2.1 International Cotton Situation - **ICE cotton trend**: This week, it fluctuated within a narrow range with a weak overall trend. It once rebounded by over 2% on Monday due to a weaker US dollar and a sharp rise in crude oil prices but failed to sustain the upward momentum. Favorable weather in US cotton - growing areas is conducive to catching up with the sowing progress, causing it to fall again [4] - **US cotton weekly export sales data**: As of the week ending May 29, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 24,900 tons, a 7% weekly decrease and a 2% decrease from the four - week average. 2025/26 US upland cotton cumulative contracts were 303,200 tons, a 25% year - on - year decline. 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 71,700 tons, a 15% month - on - month increase and a 1% increase from the four - week average [5] - **Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries**: - India: Sowing in northern India is going smoothly. The domestic market price shows a differentiated trend. About 80% - 85% of the estimated sowing area in northern India has been completed, and it is expected to finish all sowing by June 10 [6] - Brazil: The domestic textile industry has grown. The 2025 season's lint output in Mato Grosso is expected to reach a record high of 2.76 million tons. From January to April 2025, Brazilian textile production increased by 13.7% year - on - year, and the industry added 8,000 jobs [6] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand is low. The sowing progress in Sindh is far behind last year. The national cotton planting area is expected to reach 95% of last year's, with a preliminary estimated output of 6.5 - 7.5 million bales. The domestic market trading has slowed down, and import demand remains low [7] - Bangladesh: There are some positive news in energy and government budgets. Due to the approaching Eid al - Fitr holiday, textile enterprises' procurement pace has slowed down. The energy supply problem of textile enterprises may be alleviated, and the government has announced the next fiscal year's budget [8] - Australia: The 2024/25 lint output forecast has been raised to 1.2 million tons, an 11.1% increase from the previous forecast and about a 12% increase from the 2023/24 season [9] - **Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates**: As of the week ending June 6, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 74%, Vietnam's was 65%, and Pakistan's was 33.5% [9] 2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - **Zhengzhou cotton futures and basis**: From May 30, domestic cotton futures and spot prices first fell and then rose. The spot trading was relatively light, but there were large local trading volumes. Some textile enterprises and traders continued to lock in cotton spot purchases. The cotton spot sales basis showed a stable - to - strong trend [10] - **Cotton warehouse receipts**: As of June 6, there were 10,870 registered warehouse receipts and 371 forecast warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 11,241 receipts, equivalent to 472,122 tons [10] - **Downstream market**: - Cotton yarn market: The market continued to be weak, with light trading. Weaving yarn performed better than knitting yarn. Cotton yarn prices continued to decline slightly, and spinning enterprises' profits continued to deteriorate. Spinning enterprise inventories continued to accumulate, and the startup rate decreased [11] - Cotton fabric market: The off - season atmosphere continued. After the Dragon Boat Festival, weavers' production enthusiasm was low, and production was controlled. The startup rate continued to decline, and subsequent orders were weak, with inventory rising [11] 3. 基础数据图表 - The report provides 14 charts, including those related to Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning enterprises' cotton inventory, etc., but no specific data analysis in the text [13][14][15] 4. 操作建议 - ICE cotton is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations until there are new factors. Domestic cotton futures are also expected to maintain low - level fluctuations, and the stability of cotton demand is based on low cotton prices [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton market has been undergoing narrow - range oscillatory adjustments. The cotton spot price has slightly increased, while the downstream cotton yarn and cotton fabric markets are gradually weakening. Considering the macro - disturbances and the situation of both domestic and foreign markets, the cotton market has limited fluctuations in the near term, and it is advisable to adopt a range - trading strategy [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The Zhengzhou cotton has been in a narrow - range oscillatory adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,578 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes for different types of cotton in Xinjiang vary. The atmosphere and prices in the pure - cotton yarn market have changed little, with a slight increase in traders' inventory and a certain reduction in spinners' inventory. The all - cotton grey fabric market remains dull, with slower shipment, increased inventory, and manufacturers offering volume - based discounts [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the overseas market, the US cotton planting progress is slower than the same period last year, and the drought level has dropped to the 5 - year average. The external market is mainly oscillating within a wide - range. In the domestic market, the new cotton planting is generally in good condition, with the sown area expected to increase steadily. The downstream industry is gradually weakening. Given these factors, the cotton market has limited changes recently, and range trading is recommended [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of the week ending May 25, the US cotton planting progress was 52%, lower than 57% in the same period last year and the 5 - year average of 56%. The budding rate was 3%, lower than 4% in the same period last year and the 5 - year average of 4%. - The India Cotton Association (CAI) expects India's cotton consumption in the 2024/25 season to be 30.7 million bales (170 kg per bale), a decrease of about 2% from the previous year, and has revised down the consumption forecast by 800,000 bales from the initial estimate [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is currently in a weak consolidation phase. The "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season in the domestic cotton market is nearing its end, and the overall market is rather quiet. With the unclear situation of Sino - US negotiations and the approaching May Day holiday, it is advisable to clear positions to avoid risks. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 12,700 - 12,900 intraday [4]. - The cotton market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the futures price approaching historical lows and the expectation of the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption peak. Negative factors are the decrease in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, US tariff hikes, stagnant exports to the US, and the European Union's import - restricting regulations [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Sino - US mutual imposition of large - scale tariffs. In March, the textile industry's prosperity index rebounded to 52.47% above the boom - bust line. USDA reported a reduction in April consumption and an increase in inventory, which is slightly bearish. ICAC's April report predicted a production increase compared to the previous month, stable consumption, and a slight increase in ending inventory, also slightly bearish. In March, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 12.4% year - on - year. In March, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a 81.4% year - on - year decrease, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a 31% year - on - year decrease. The Ministry of Agriculture estimated a 2024/2025 production of 6.16 million tons, imports of 1.5 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 14,232 yuan, with a basis of 1392 yuan (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's April 2024/2025 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with a net short position increase, and the main trend is bearish [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: The table shows cotton production, consumption, and other data of various countries from 2020/21 to 2024/25. For example, in 2024/25 (April), China's cotton production is 696.7 million tons, an increase of 5.4 million tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 17% [10]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: The table presents China's cotton supply - demand data from 2022/23 to 2024/25. In 2024/25 (April forecast), production is 6.16 million tons, imports are 1.5 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.31 million tons [19]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.