1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the domestic supply has significant pressure, with soybean inventories at a record high. In the short - term, there is no improvement in US soybean imports, and the soybean meal destocking season provides some support. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, so the strategy is to sell on rebounds [3][4]. - For oils, the low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the decreasing export volume due to the growing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the upward movement of the oil price center. Currently, the supply - demand is balanced or slightly loose, but with a tight expectation in the medium - term, so the strategy is to buy on dips [6][7]. - For sugar, the sugar production data from Brazil's central - southern region in September is bearish but in line with expectations. In the new 2025/26 crushing season, major northern hemisphere producers are expected to increase production. With Brazil's high - level production, the overall view is bearish, and the strategy is to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10][11]. - For cotton, due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals including poor consumption during the peak season, low downstream operating rates, and high selling - hedging pressure from the expected high yield, the upward space for cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - For eggs, the spot price may rebound, but the space is limited due to high supply. The futures market is focused on whether the future spot price increase can cover the premium of each contract. Currently, the conditions for a significant price increase are not met, so it is recommended to wait and see [16][17]. - For pigs, although the number of individual farmers' pigs has decreased, the supply from large - scale farms is large. The supply exceeds demand, and the secondary fattening is difficult to thrive. The strategy is to sell on rebounds [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose. Over the weekend, domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 20 yuan, with the East China price at around 2910 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal sales were average, but pick - up was good. According to MYSTEEL, the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises decreased by 0.41 days to 7.93 days. MYSTEEL expects the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills to be 2.3335 million tons this week, compared with 2.166 million tons last week. As of October 17, the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 23.27%, compared with 9.33% last year [2][3]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The cost of imported soybeans is supported by the low valuation of US soybeans and Sino - US trade relations, but it also faces pressure from the global protein raw material supply surplus, Brazil's expanding planting area, and potential short - term supply surplus if Sino - US relations ease [3]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the high domestic supply pressure and the soybean meal destocking season provide some support. In the medium - term, with the global soybean supply remaining loose, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: According to ITS and AMSPEC, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared with the same period last month, and the exports in the first 15 days increased by 12.3% - 16.2%. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month. In September, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.639743 million tons, slightly lower than 1.677346 million tons in August. Last Friday, domestic oils rose due to positive market sentiment [6]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Internationally, the supply - demand of palm oil is currently balanced, with a tight expectation in the first quarter of next year. Domestically, the spot basis is stable at a low level [6]. - **Strategy**: Supported by factors such as low inventories in producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil, and limited production increase of palm oil, the oil price center is expected to rise. With the current balanced or slightly loose supply - demand and a tight expectation, the strategy is to buy on dips [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 5412 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in different regions remained unchanged. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 328 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: In the second half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region increased year - on - year. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 150,000 tons year - on - year. From January - September 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.17 million tons, an increase of 280,000 tons year - on - year [10]. - **Strategy**: The September data from Brazil is bearish but in line with expectations. With the expected production increase in major northern hemisphere producers in the new season and Brazil's high - level production, the strategy is to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 13335 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. The spot price index (CCIndex)3128B rose by 15 yuan/ton. The basis of (CCIndex)3128B - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1344 yuan/ton. As of October 17, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index was 6.17 yuan/kg, and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 7.02 yuan/kg. The spinning mill operating rate was 65.6% [13]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The Sino - US trade conflict is unfavorable to cotton prices. The consumption during the peak season is weak, the downstream operating rate is low, and there is a high yield expectation in the new season, resulting in high selling - hedging pressure [14]. - **Strategy**: Due to weak fundamentals and macro - level negative factors, the upward space for cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly [14]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices continued to fall, with powder eggs performing weakly. The large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and those in Guantao fell to 2.42 yuan/jin. The laying hen inventory is high, and after the temperature drop, the egg - laying rate and egg weight have recovered [16]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The market has sufficient large and medium - sized eggs and a slight shortage of small - sized eggs. The downstream market's enthusiasm for restocking has increased, and the participation intention of all sectors has strengthened after the temperature drop [16]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may rebound, but the space is limited due to high supply. The futures market is focused on whether the future spot price increase can cover the premium of each contract. Currently, the conditions for a significant price increase are not met, so it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices were mainly stable, with some regions rising or falling slightly. The average price in Henan rose to 11.46 yuan/kg, that in Sichuan remained at 10.84 yuan/kg, and that in Guangxi fell to 10.3 yuan/kg. Farmers' enthusiasm for price adjustment was low, with some regions showing reluctance to sell at low prices and some regions reducing prices due to sales pressure [19]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Although the number of individual farmers' pigs has decreased, the supply from large - scale farms is large. The supply exceeds demand, and the secondary fattening is difficult to thrive [20]. - **Strategy**: The near - term spot price rebound space is limited, and the futures market should focus on consuming the premium in the near - term contracts and suppressing the valuation in the far - term contracts. The strategy is to sell on rebounds [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The medium - term outlook for global soybean supply remains loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rallies. In the short term, due to the US's tariff threats, soybean prices will likely trade in a range [4]. - For oils, the medium - term outlook is supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asia, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [6][7]. - For sugar, given the high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. - For cotton, considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. - For eggs, a bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. - For live pigs, in the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell due to concerns over China - US trade relations. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan/ton, with good trading and pick - up. Last week, domestic port soybean inventories exceeded 10 million tons, and soybean meal inventories continued to decline. MYSTEEL estimates this week's soybean crushing volume at 2.1674 million tons [2]. - **Influencing Factors**: Imported soybean costs are supported by low US soybean valuations, China - US trade relations, and Brazil's planting season trading. However, they also face pressure from factors such as global protein raw material supply surplus [3]. - **Strategy**: Given the large domestic supply pressure and high soybean inventories, the medium - term strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short term, due to tariff threats, prices will likely trade in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the previous month. As of October 10, 2025, domestic soybean oil inventories increased by 1.31% week - on - week, and palm oil inventories decreased slightly. On Monday, domestic oils oscillated and declined [6]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term outlook is supported, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell slightly. Brazilian data shows that in the first half of September, sugar production increased year - on - year, and the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased [9][11]. - **Strategy**: Given high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated. Spinning and weaving factory operating rates are lower than in previous years, and cotton inventories are lower than the five - year average [14]. - **Strategy**: Considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: National egg prices are stable or falling, with supply - demand pressure remaining. Producers are eager to sell, but the circulation speed is slow [17]. - **Strategy**: A bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. Live Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic pig prices showed mixed trends. Northern farmers are reluctant to sell, and secondary fattening provides some support, while southern farmers face greater pressure to sell [19]. - **Strategy**: In the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rallies. In the short - term, soybean meal is likely to fluctuate weakly due to high domestic supply pressure and uncertain factors in South American planting and weather [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: The center of the oils and fats market is supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil from the US biodiesel policy, limited production growth potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and reduced export volume expectations from Indonesia. Oils and fats are expected to be strong in the medium - term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The data of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of September are bearish. With expected increases in production in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries in the new season, a bearish outlook is maintained, and short - selling on rallies is advised in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - **Cotton**: After the National Day, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak. The estimated cost support is around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [12][13]. - **Eggs**: The domestic egg market has a supply - demand imbalance. After the holiday, the futures price may remain weak, but there may be support from potential inventory transfers. It is advisable to wait for the bottom - building process and adopt a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy [15][16]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price of pigs may continue to decline. A strategy of short - selling near - term contracts and reverse arbitrage is recommended, while being cautious about post - holiday price fluctuations [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, CBOT soybeans rose about 2% compared to the pre - holiday closing price. Domestic soybean meal spot prices slightly decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton in some areas and increased in others. As of October 2, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 9% [2]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the cost side lacks clear positive factors. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to be loose, and in the short - term, soybean meal is likely to fluctuate weakly [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 plan for biodiesel in 2026. Reuters estimates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September may have decreased by 2.5% compared to August. During the National Day holiday, Malaysian palm oil rose about 4.2% compared to the pre - holiday closing price. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: Supported by multiple factors, the oils and fats market is expected to be strong in the medium - term. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [6][7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated. During the National Day holiday, the price of raw sugar changed little. In the first half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The data are bearish, and with expected production increases in the new season, short - selling on rallies is advised in the fourth quarter [10]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton futures declined. During the National Day holiday, US cotton prices fell. Domestic processing enterprises' cotton purchase is rational, and the purchase price of seed cotton is lower than last year [12]. - **Strategy**: After the National Day, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, domestic egg prices generally declined. Supply is large, demand is weak, and there is inventory accumulation in some areas [15]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand imbalance persists. After the holiday, the futures price may remain weak, but there may be support from potential inventory transfers. A wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, domestic pig prices generally declined. Supply exceeds demand, and there is a possibility of further price drops [17]. - **Strategy**: The current spot price may continue to decline. A strategy of short - selling near - term contracts and reverse arbitrage is recommended, while being cautious about post - holiday price fluctuations [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybean/meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the fundamentals and market trends of each product. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: Last Friday night, the USDA's reduction in planting area continued to be bullish, with US soybeans closing higher. Brazilian soybean premiums slightly decreased, and soybean import costs remained stable. Rapeseed meal fell from its high, and soybean meal fluctuated with external costs. Domestic soybean meal spot basis was stable over the weekend, with spot prices rising slightly by 10 - 20 yuan. Last week, soybean meal trading was weak, but提货 was good, and downstream inventory days decreased slightly by 0.02 days to 8.35 days. According to MYSTEEL, 2.339 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China last week, and 2.4043 million tons are expected to be crushed this week. The US soybean growing area is expected to have normal or slightly less rainfall in the next two weeks. Brazilian premiums have been oscillating at a high level recently. Overall, the USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month, which is short - term bullish for CBOT soybeans. Currently, due to the low valuation of US soybeans, the bullish EPA policy, and the fact that Brazil is the sole supplier of soybeans from September to January, soybean import costs are maintaining a stable and slightly rising trend, but the continuous upward momentum of soybean import costs is questionable under the background of global protein raw material supply surplus [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Soybean import costs have recently maintained a stable and slightly rising trend, and the domestic soybean meal market is still in a seasonal supply surplus situation. It is expected that the spot end may start to destock in September. Therefore, the soybean meal market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end, and focus on the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month, and exports in the first 15 days are expected to increase by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month. In July 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.379 billion pounds, slightly lower than the market expectation of 1.38 billion pounds and higher than the 1.366 billion pounds in June. The Indonesian president said that the government has confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations. Last Friday, China's three major oils rose significantly. Earlier, the postponement of Indonesia's B50 policy, rumors of poor Indonesian palm oil exports, and rapeseed purchase information suppressed prices, but at the end of the week, the Indonesian president's statement about confiscating illegal plantations raised supply concerns. Stable demand from importing countries and low inventories in Southeast Asia provide continuous bullish factors. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fundamentally, the US biodiesel policy draft exceeds expectations, the palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia is insufficient, the vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas are low, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy supports the center of the oil market. For palm oil, if importing countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remains at a moderate level, the producing areas may maintain stable inventories, supporting strong producer quotes. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. Currently, the information about the confiscation of Indonesian plantations continues to drive up prices, but the valuation is relatively high, and the upside space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level oil production increase expectation, relatively high near - term palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro factors, and demand adjustments in major importing countries. The market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [10]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated. The closing price of the January sugar contract was 5,664 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5,940 - 6,010 yuan/ton, Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, and processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 6,050 - 6,140 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous trading day. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 276 yuan/ton. According to the latest data from the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica), 50.217 million tons of sugarcane were crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of July, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease; sugar production was 3.614 million tons, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease; the sugar - to - cane ratio was 54.1%, compared with 50.32% in the same period of the previous season; the sugar yield per ton of sugarcane (ATR) decreased by 5.21% year - on - year to 139.62 kg/ton. As of the week of August 13, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 80 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.3179 million tons, a decrease of 259,800 tons or 7.26% from the previous week [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the international market, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly month - on - month since July, and there are also expectations of increased production in major northern hemisphere producing countries such as India in the new season. Therefore, the possibility of a significant rebound in raw sugar prices is low. In the domestic market, domestic import supply will gradually increase in the next two months, and the out - of - quota spot import profit has been at the highest level in the past five years. The futures price valuation is still high, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The closing price of the January cotton contract was 14,120 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) for 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked cotton at the pick - up price was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The basis of 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked cotton at the pick - up price - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 880 yuan/ton. As of the week of August 15, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weaving mill operating rate was 37%, unchanged from the previous week; and the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.86 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous week [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The USDA report was more bullish than expected, driving up both domestic and international cotton prices. Also, China and the US have continued to suspend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days, which is bullish for domestic cotton prices. However, from a fundamental perspective, recent downstream consumption has been average, the operating rate has remained at a historically low level, and the speed of cotton destocking has slowed down. Overall, cotton prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: Egg prices in China mainly rose over the weekend. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 3 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.14 yuan to 2.76 yuan/jin. The supply is abundant, with a high proportion of medium and small - sized eggs, and the proportion of large - sized eggs is increasing. Cold - stored eggs are also flowing into the market. Currently, it is the peak season, and the consumption of low - priced eggs has improved. It is expected that egg prices will stabilize and then rise slightly this week [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The number of newly - hatched laying hens continues to increase, and the number of culled hens is limited, resulting in a consistently large supply scale. Egg prices have performed weaker than expected during the peak season, and funds have taken the opportunity to create a premium in the futures market, especially for near - month contracts. However, as the expectation of a spot price rebound gathers again, combined with the volatility risk brought by high positions at low prices, the futures market may start to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, the reduction of basic production capacity is limited, and the focus will still be on short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: Pig prices in China mainly fell slightly over the weekend, with some areas remaining stable. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.13 yuan to 13.68 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.47 yuan/kg. Demand has been average, and the number of pigs sold by individual farmers and free - range groups has increased, leading to an increase in supply. However, leading enterprises have reduced their sales volume, and the confrontation sentiment on the supply side has intensified. Pig prices are expected to be stable today [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The previous continuous release of pressure and the bottom - supporting sentiment have led to a temporary stabilization of the spot market. The futures market has generally risen and then fallen under the influence of news. The market is waiting for the supply - demand game at the end of the third quarter. Under the expectation of both increasing supply and demand, the spread between fat and standard pigs and whether farmers will hold back pigs at that time will be crucial. The market may fall into range - bound oscillations. In the short term, focus on buying at low prices; in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure; and for far - month contracts, adopt a reverse - spread strategy [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton market has been undergoing narrow - range oscillatory adjustments. The cotton spot price has slightly increased, while the downstream cotton yarn and cotton fabric markets are gradually weakening. Considering the macro - disturbances and the situation of both domestic and foreign markets, the cotton market has limited fluctuations in the near term, and it is advisable to adopt a range - trading strategy [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The Zhengzhou cotton has been in a narrow - range oscillatory adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,578 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes for different types of cotton in Xinjiang vary. The atmosphere and prices in the pure - cotton yarn market have changed little, with a slight increase in traders' inventory and a certain reduction in spinners' inventory. The all - cotton grey fabric market remains dull, with slower shipment, increased inventory, and manufacturers offering volume - based discounts [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the overseas market, the US cotton planting progress is slower than the same period last year, and the drought level has dropped to the 5 - year average. The external market is mainly oscillating within a wide - range. In the domestic market, the new cotton planting is generally in good condition, with the sown area expected to increase steadily. The downstream industry is gradually weakening. Given these factors, the cotton market has limited changes recently, and range trading is recommended [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of the week ending May 25, the US cotton planting progress was 52%, lower than 57% in the same period last year and the 5 - year average of 56%. The budding rate was 3%, lower than 4% in the same period last year and the 5 - year average of 4%. - The India Cotton Association (CAI) expects India's cotton consumption in the 2024/25 season to be 30.7 million bales (170 kg per bale), a decrease of about 2% from the previous year, and has revised down the consumption forecast by 800,000 bales from the initial estimate [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is currently in a weak consolidation phase. The "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season in the domestic cotton market is nearing its end, and the overall market is rather quiet. With the unclear situation of Sino - US negotiations and the approaching May Day holiday, it is advisable to clear positions to avoid risks. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 12,700 - 12,900 intraday [4]. - The cotton market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the futures price approaching historical lows and the expectation of the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption peak. Negative factors are the decrease in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, US tariff hikes, stagnant exports to the US, and the European Union's import - restricting regulations [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Sino - US mutual imposition of large - scale tariffs. In March, the textile industry's prosperity index rebounded to 52.47% above the boom - bust line. USDA reported a reduction in April consumption and an increase in inventory, which is slightly bearish. ICAC's April report predicted a production increase compared to the previous month, stable consumption, and a slight increase in ending inventory, also slightly bearish. In March, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 12.4% year - on - year. In March, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a 81.4% year - on - year decrease, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a 31% year - on - year decrease. The Ministry of Agriculture estimated a 2024/2025 production of 6.16 million tons, imports of 1.5 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 14,232 yuan, with a basis of 1392 yuan (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's April 2024/2025 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with a net short position increase, and the main trend is bearish [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: The table shows cotton production, consumption, and other data of various countries from 2020/21 to 2024/25. For example, in 2024/25 (April), China's cotton production is 696.7 million tons, an increase of 5.4 million tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 17% [10]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: The table presents China's cotton supply - demand data from 2022/23 to 2024/25. In 2024/25 (April forecast), production is 6.16 million tons, imports are 1.5 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.31 million tons [19]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of the domestic cotton market is characterized by weak supply and demand. Although the inventory depletion rate has accelerated since March due to a significant decrease in imports, downstream consumption remains weak. The future trend of cotton prices depends on changes in downstream consumption. If consumption weakens significantly, cotton prices may fall; if consumption does not decline much, there is a possibility of a rebound in Zhengzhou cotton prices. Additionally, factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic cotton purchase and storage policies may also lead to a rebound in cotton prices [2][20]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Impact of US Tariff Policy on Cotton Prices - On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration announced a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on all trading partners and higher tariffs on some countries with large trade deficits. This led to a significant increase in textile and clothing costs for major cotton - importing and textile - exporting countries such as China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh, resulting in a decline in consumption and a sharp drop in domestic and international cotton prices. Subsequently, Sino - US tariffs increased in a spiral. However, on April 10, the US announced a 90 - day suspension of tariffs on more than 75 countries (excluding China), causing US cotton prices to rebound, while short - term domestic and international cotton price trends diverged [4]. Domestic Cotton Consumption - Despite being in the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April," domestic cotton textile and clothing industry demand is weaker than in previous years. As of April 3, the mainstream spinning mill operating rate was 75.7%, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and the mainstream weaving mill operating rate was 43.7%, a decrease of 18.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Moreover, the spinning mill operating rate has been declining for three consecutive weeks since reaching its peak this year on March 6 [5]. Domestic Cotton Supply and Inventory - In the 2024/25 season, domestic cotton production increased significantly, with the national cotton inspection volume reaching 679 million tons as of April 9, an increase of 107 million tons year - on - year. However, imports decreased significantly, with cumulative imports from August 2024 to February 2025 only at 90 million tons, a decrease of 103 million tons year - on - year. It is expected that imports will remain at a low level in March and April. As a result, domestic supply - demand has shifted from loose to tight - balanced, and inventory depletion has accelerated since February. The national commercial cotton inventory decreased from 524 million tons on January 24 to 442 million tons on April 4 [9][12]. Future Outlook - In the short term, international cotton demand is expected to improve due to the 90 - day tariff suspension in most countries by the US. However, the domestic situation is uncertain. Although there is a possibility of resuming re - export trade, current domestic consumption is weak. With limited new import supply until May, the future trend of cotton prices depends on downstream consumption. If consumption is significantly affected by tariffs, prices may fall; otherwise, there is a chance of a rebound [20].