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元祖股份(603886):门店收入承压,刚性支出致利润下行
HTSC· 2025-08-27 05:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in the first half of 2025, with revenue down 13.71% year-on-year to 829 million RMB and net profit down 96.26% to 1 million RMB [1][4]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue drop of 8.97% year-on-year, with net profit decreasing by 36.60% [1]. - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to continue exploring online membership potential and drive single-store revenue recovery, indicating a potential operational improvement [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 829 million RMB, with a net profit of 1 million RMB and a loss of 3.7 million RMB in net profit excluding non-recurring items [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 reported revenue of 491 million RMB, with net profit at 26 million RMB and a net profit of 16 million RMB excluding non-recurring items [1]. - The gross margin remained relatively stable at 61.5%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.2 percentage points [3]. Product and Channel Performance - Revenue from cakes, Western and Chinese pastries, and other businesses in the first half of 2025 was 412 million RMB, 362 million RMB, and 22 million RMB, respectively, reflecting declines of 14.58%, 13.64%, and 17.22% year-on-year [2]. - Offline store revenue fell by 39.33% to 215 million RMB, while online e-commerce revenue grew by 1.26% to 581 million RMB [2]. Cost and Profitability - The first half of 2025 saw an increase in sales expense ratio by 5.4 percentage points to 54.6%, while the management expense ratio remained stable at 5.1% [3]. - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 0.1%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, and for the second quarter, it was 5.3%, down 2.3 percentage points [3]. Future Outlook - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be 0.96 RMB, 1.13 RMB, and 1.26 RMB, respectively, with a target price of 17.28 RMB based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18x for 2025 [4][10].