新技术革命的不确定性，到底不确定在哪里？ 我接触过很多企业，从传统制造业到互联网公司，大家的困惑一般都集中在四个层面: 1、技术方向的模糊性： 最近跟朋友们聊天，聊的最多的话题是该如何管理新技术革命引发的不确定性。 其实仔细想想，这些年新技术革命，例如AI、大数据、云计算等，像潮水一样涌过来，我明显感觉 到：今天的企业，面临的不是有没有机会的问题，而是能不能在不确定性里站稳的问题。 我常和企业家说："以前我们怕'黑天鹅'，现在'黑天鹅'成了常态，以前拼的是'踩准封口'，现在拼的 是'在风力站得住'。" 新技术带来的不确定性，不是某一个环节的问题，而是从战略到组织、从人才到文化的全面冲击。咱们 得先看清楚不确定性长什么样，再想怎么应对。 新技术太多，每个领域都在快速迭代，企业根本不知道哪条路能走通。 比如前两年大家都在押注元宇宙，现在发现很多场景只是"概念"； 今年AI大模型火了，但90%的企业连"怎么用AI降本增效"都没搞明白。 技术的"不确定性"，本质是"投入和回报的周期"变得不可预测——投错了方向，可能血本无归；投对 了，也可能被更先进的技术快速淘汰。 2、市场需求"跳跃性"： 技术会直接重塑用户需求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of resource management strategies in enhancing organizational resilience and innovation capabilities for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the scientific instrument manufacturing sector in dynamic environments [1][5]. Group 1: Research Objectives - The research aims to explore the internal relationship between resource management strategies and organizational resilience and innovation capabilities in SMEs [1]. - The study invites decision-makers from the scientific instrument R&D manufacturing sector to participate in a survey to share their management experiences [1][3]. Group 2: Survey Details - The survey consists of three main parts: company background information (business type, industry category, size), current organizational resilience and innovation status, and the previous year's environmental dynamics and information management conditions [3]. - The estimated completion time for the survey is approximately 10 minutes [3]. Group 3: Privacy and Participation - The data collected from the survey will be used strictly for academic research and will adhere to confidentiality principles, ensuring no sensitive company or personal information is involved [4]. - Participants can engage in the survey by scanning a QR code or clicking a link provided at the end of the article, with the survey open until June 14, 2025 [5].

Group 1 - Organizational resilience is defined as the ability of a company to withstand shocks and adapt to changes, allowing it to survive and seek new growth opportunities in uncertain environments [1] - The research on organizational resilience is shifting from a static perspective to a dynamic process, emphasizing that resilience is not an inherent trait but rather developed through interactions among members during crises [2][3] - The case study of the survivors of the Uruguayan Air Force Flight 571 illustrates that organizational resilience is formed through social interactions, highlighting three key elements: situational handling ability, community formation, and flexible response patterns [2] Group 2 - The resilience of H. Forman & Sons, a family business, is attributed to a unique "organizational grit" system, which includes a strong family mission, decisive leadership, and a culture that transcends contractual relationships [3][4][5] - The leadership style of the fourth-generation leader, Lance, is characterized by bold and unconventional decisions that reflect a strong fighting spirit, contributing to the company's resilience [4] - The company fosters a familial culture among employees, leading to high levels of cohesion and collective action during crises, which has turned challenges into opportunities for growth [5][6] Group 3 - Research indicates that collective identity plays a crucial role in team resilience, with challenging pressures enhancing team identity and resilience, while obstructive pressures can weaken it [8] - Charismatic leadership significantly impacts organizational resilience by reshaping team members' perceptions of stress and enhancing collective identity [9] - The understanding of organizational resilience is evolving into a multi-disciplinary approach, integrating various theories to enhance the ability to survive and compete in uncertain environments [10] Group 4 - The construction of organizational resilience involves three core dimensions: knowledge capital and redundancy design, modularity and adaptive reconstruction, and institutional embedding and ecological control [11][15] - Knowledge capital is essential for rapid reconfiguration during crises, while modularity allows for quick restructuring and adaptation to challenges [12][13] - Institutional and social network theories emphasize the importance of formal and informal rules in shaping organizational capabilities and enhancing resilience through network connections [15][16] Group 5 - The concept of organizational resilience is framed as a formula: organizational resilience = resource redundancy × modular architecture × adaptive learning × distributed decision-making, highlighting the need for a systematic approach to resilience [17] - Embracing imperfections and actively engaging with vulnerabilities can transform challenges into opportunities for evolution, suggesting that resilience is rooted in the acceptance of uncertainty [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for investors to adapt to the rapidly changing landscape of 2025, focusing on long-term investment strategies amidst uncertainty [2] - The investment philosophy of the company is to find "certainty cuts" in uncertainty, leveraging long-termism to hedge against short-term fluctuations [3][22] - The company has invested in over 600 enterprises, focusing on the integration of "people, events, time, and value" in its investment logic [3][22] Group 2 - The success of DeepSeek is attributed to the resonance between technological iteration and scene demand, highlighting the importance of focusing on specific verticals rather than general models [4][5] - The company is shifting its focus from general AI models to application-based companies that can encapsulate large model capabilities into SaaS tools and niche models trained with industry data [6] - The company emphasizes the need for local governments to move away from "policy following" thinking and instead foster an ecosystem that supports innovation and collaboration [7] Group 3 - The company identifies three key traits in young entrepreneurs: obsessive focus, technical originality from 0 to 1, and rapid error correction ability [8] - The company sees high certainty in three sectors for 2025: AI in the real economy, synthetic biology, and the silver economy [9] - The company advises entrepreneurs to focus on single-point breakthroughs, bind to industry chains, and prioritize cash flow management [10][11] Group 4 - The company is restructuring its fundraising strategy, with government-guided funds now accounting for over 70% of its LP structure, aiming for precise matching with strong industrial cities [12] - The exit strategy is evolving from "betting on IPOs" to a more diversified approach, including mergers and acquisitions [13][14] - The company predicts a strong year for hard tech IPOs, with over 10 companies in semiconductor, AI, and biomedicine expected to reach a market value of over 10 billion [25] Group 5 - The company believes that consumer investment is diversifying, focusing on new domestic products and aging population needs [17] - The company sees structural opportunities in cross-border investments, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [25][20] - The investment logic of the company is centered around identifying "unicorn" companies with high growth potential and ensuring exit strategies are in place [22]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a resilient scientific research system is essential for ensuring national technological security and achieving self-reliance in science and technology, especially in the context of increasing global technological competition and geopolitical tensions [3][8]. Group 1: Challenges to the Research System - The scientific research system faces multiple challenges, including accelerated technological iteration, interdisciplinary collaboration risks, sudden public events, and uneven resource distribution [2][4]. - The rapid development of technology brings ethical and regulatory issues, as well as disruptive changes in research paradigms, posing adaptability challenges to traditional research organizational models [2][3]. Group 2: Necessity for a Resilient Research System - A resilient research system is particularly necessary for China due to increasing international competition and sanctions from developed countries, which hinder international research cooperation and access to research facilities [3][4]. - The lack of an independent and self-sufficient research ecosystem in China, along with limited international academic discourse power and weak foundational research, necessitates the establishment of a resilient research system [3][4]. Group 3: Strategies to Enhance Resilience - Enhancing the resilience of the research system should focus on four aspects: technological resilience, institutional resilience, organizational resilience, and social resilience [4][5]. - Strengthening technological resilience involves improving independent innovation capabilities and developing backup plans for critical technologies to mitigate risks from potential technological blockades [4][5]. - Institutional resilience requires continuous evolution and improvement of existing systems to enhance risk resistance, including the establishment of flexible legal frameworks and risk assessment mechanisms [5][6]. - Organizational resilience can be improved by increasing flexibility in resource allocation and fostering collaboration among various research entities to optimize strategies and share resources [6][7]. - Social resilience emphasizes the importance of public engagement and support for scientific research, enhancing scientific literacy, and fostering a stable social environment for technological development [7][8].