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益普索老大卫:从存量竞争中找增长,2025年乳业的4个破局方向
FBIF食品饮料创新· 2025-05-19 00:30
Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry is facing significant challenges in 2024, but growth opportunities are emerging in niche markets such as buffalo milk, refrigerated yogurt, and refrigerated white milk, which have all achieved double-digit growth [1][2]. Group 1: Challenges and Opportunities - The dairy industry has encountered numerous challenges over the past year, including a decline in production and sales, changing consumer demands, and high fluctuations in raw milk prices. In early 2025, there are no significant signs of improvement, with national dairy product production down 6.8% year-on-year in January-February, marking the second consecutive year of over 6% decline [2]. - Despite these challenges, new opportunities are visible in niche categories, with products like buffalo milk, refrigerated yogurt, and refrigerated white milk achieving double-digit growth [2]. Group 2: Expanding Target Demographics - The Chinese dairy market has entered a phase of stock competition, with the number of new users decreasing annually. The penetration rate of dairy products is already high, making it difficult to attract new users [4]. - The proportion of heavy dairy users is also declining, with significant drops in the percentage of users consuming dairy products daily. This decline is attributed to competition from cross-category food and beverage products [6][10]. - The potential for growth in dairy consumption exists, but achieving this is challenging due to differences in dietary structures between China and other countries. The current consumption ratio of liquid to solid dairy products in China is 7:3, compared to the reverse in many Western countries [6][10]. Group 3: Innovation in Differentiated Products - The key to success in the dairy sector lies in developing differentiated products. For instance, white milk accounts for about 40% of dairy sales but lacks competitive differentiation [12]. - Strategies for differentiation include high-end products (e.g., organic and A2 milk) to escape price wars, functional products (e.g., high-protein, lactose-free, sleep-aid milk), and innovative flavors that resonate with local tastes [12][13][14]. - The trend towards refrigerated white milk is expected to grow significantly, with "freshness" becoming a key differentiator in the market [13][14]. Group 4: Connecting with Niche Scenarios - Recent observations indicate that outdoor consumption scenarios for dairy products have not gained traction, with home consumption remaining dominant. However, there are many opportunities in various niche scenarios beyond just home consumption [15][18]. - The dairy industry needs to connect effectively with these niche scenarios rather than relying solely on traditional marketing strategies [18]. Group 5: Integrating Diverse Channels - The sales landscape for dairy products is undergoing significant changes, with traditional large-scale retail channels losing influence. Smaller supermarkets, community stores, and convenience stores are becoming increasingly important due to consumers' desire for immediate satisfaction [20][22]. - Online marketing has evolved from merely selling products to creating buzz through social media platforms. Engaging consumers through short videos, live streaming, and user-generated content is crucial for reaching target audiences [22][23]. - The rapid growth of discount stores presents unprecedented opportunities for the dairy industry, as these stores align well with the high-frequency consumption nature of dairy products [23].