2025 WHITE PAPER ON ULTRA-LUXURY CARS 高端座驾市场 需求与趋势洞察 日皮书 第四财经 × 20 ----- 2025高端座省市场需求与趋势洞察日尺书 第二财经 引 言 中国超豪华汽车市场正经历一场深刻的结构性变革。在政策引导、 经济环境、技术选代及社会文化变迁等多重因素的共同驱动下,行业格 局加速重塑。 面对日益激烈的存量竞争、新能源的加速普及、智能科技的全面渗 透以及多元品牌间的复杂博弈,传统超豪华汽车品牌亟须重新审视自身 的战略定位,通过提升品牌价值、优化服务体系、强化技术创新,在激烈 的市场竞争中寻找新增量,持续巩固并不断扩大品牌影响力。 政策层面,政府通过税收政策和消费刺激政策调控高端消费与市 场准入,持续塑造行业格局。2016年,国家对高价车型加征消费税,至 2025年,高价车的认定门槛进一步降至90万元,且覆盖新能源车型,迫 使超豪华汽车品牌通过补贴和灵活的价格策略以应对成本压力。与此同 时,"双积分"政策及新能源鼓励政策协同发力,推动产业向新能源方向 发生革命性转型,对传统豪华车企构成了显著的转型压力。 经济层面,当前中国已从高速增长阶段转向以高质量发展为导 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of WeMakePrice, a prominent South Korean e-commerce platform, highlighting its bankruptcy as a significant event in the e-commerce industry, reflecting broader challenges faced by online retail businesses in a tough economic environment [4][9][16]. Group 1: WeMakePrice's Journey - WeMakePrice was established during the early days of South Korean e-commerce, quickly rising to prominence alongside platforms like Coupang and Tmon through social commerce and group buying models [8]. - At its peak in 2019, WeMakePrice achieved annual sales of over 465.3 billion KRW (approximately 400 million USD), becoming a star in the South Korean e-commerce market [8]. - The company faced increasing competition and market changes, particularly from Coupang, which leveraged logistics and capital to become a dominant player [8][9]. - WeMakePrice's revenue plummeted to less than 200 billion KRW (approximately 170 million USD) in 2022, leading to its acquisition by Singapore's Qoo10 in 2023, but financial issues persisted [9][11]. - Ultimately, WeMakePrice was declared bankrupt in September 2025, marking the end of an era for the group buying model in e-commerce [9][16]. Group 2: Wish's Decline - Wish, once valued at 14 billion USD at its IPO in December 2020, saw its market value plummet to just 1.74 million USD by 2024, reflecting a dramatic decline in its business [11][12]. - The platform's revenue fell from approximately 2.1 billion USD in 2021 to about 570 million USD in 2022, and further down to around 56 million USD in Q3 2023, indicating severe financial distress [11][12]. - Wish faced significant challenges, including a crisis of trust with merchants due to delayed payments and penalties, leading to a mass exodus of sellers from the platform [12][13]. - The company's attempts to improve user experience and merchant relations were insufficient to reverse its decline, culminating in its sale to Qoo10 for a mere fraction of its peak valuation [12][16]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The failures of WeMakePrice and Wish illustrate a shift in the e-commerce landscape towards "stock competition," where traditional growth strategies based on traffic and capital are no longer viable [16]. - The article emphasizes that companies must adapt to survive, focusing on sustainable cash flow, user value, and operational efficiency to thrive in a challenging economic climate [16]. - The downfall of these giants signals not just an end but a new beginning for the industry, as more efficient and user-centric players are likely to emerge [16].

Core Insights - The retail credit market is experiencing a slowdown, with many banks facing challenges in maintaining retail performance metrics amid weak consumer demand and credit needs [1][2][3] Group 1: Retail Credit Trends - Retail loan growth has decelerated, with several banks reporting a decrease in retail loan balances compared to the end of last year [2] - As of the end of September, several banks, including Industrial Bank and Minsheng Bank, reported declines in personal loan balances, with decreases of 2.49% and 3.17% respectively [2] - The overall retail loan demand is insufficient, particularly in mortgage and credit card segments, leading to a downward trend in loan balances [3] Group 2: Customer Segmentation - There is a noticeable divergence in growth rates between high-net-worth and basic retail customer segments, with high-net-worth customers growing at a faster pace [4][5] - As of September, the number of high-net-worth customers at several banks, such as China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank, has increased significantly, with growth rates of 10.42% and 6.7% respectively [5][6] - The trend indicates a shift towards deeper competition in the retail banking sector, focusing on maximizing value from existing customer bases rather than acquiring new customers [7]

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao Co., Ltd. is facing significant operational challenges as reflected in its Q3 2025 report, with both revenue and net profit declining year-on-year, indicating a deeper issue related to its long-term reliance on high-end products and a weak product matrix [2][26]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the year-to-date period is 23.13 billion yuan, down 4.84% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is 10.76 billion yuan, down 7.17% [3][4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities has decreased by 21.20%, significantly outpacing the declines in revenue and net profit, indicating a sharp drop in sales collection efficiency [5][6]. Group 2: Debt Structure - The company has seen a 64.67% reduction in long-term borrowings, dropping from 6.28 billion yuan to 2.22 billion yuan, while short-term liabilities have increased by 39.59% [7][9]. - This shift in debt structure has led to a mismatch between available funds and repayment needs, raising concerns about the company's short-term solvency [9][10]. Group 3: Resource Allocation - Marketing expenditures have not translated into revenue growth, with sales expenses decreasing by 3.23% despite a significant increase in prepaid advertising expenses [11][14]. - R&D spending has decreased by 10.80%, raising concerns about the company's long-term competitiveness in an industry that is increasingly focused on innovation and quality [15][17]. Group 4: Governance Issues - The company's governance structure is characterized by concentrated ownership, with the top two shareholders holding over 50% of the shares, potentially leading to rigid decision-making processes [18][20]. - The effectiveness of the company's stock incentive plans is questioned, as the continuous decline in revenue and profit suggests insufficient alignment between incentives and performance [21][23]. Group 5: Reliance on Non-Recurring Gains - The company has relied on non-recurring gains, such as government subsidies and financial asset gains, to support its performance, which are not sustainable in the long term [24][26]. - The increase in non-operating expenses, particularly donations, during a period of financial strain raises concerns about the balance between corporate social responsibility and shareholder returns [26].

Core Viewpoint - The beverage industry, particularly in the coffee and tea segment, is witnessing a shift towards salty flavors, with major brands launching salty milk tea products to attract consumers amidst increasing competition in a saturated market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Salty milk tea has become a central focus for major brands like Heytea, Naixue, and Luckin Coffee, with products such as "Salty Milk Tea Latte" and "Salty Cheese Milk Tea" gaining popularity [1][2]. - The trend of salty flavors is not entirely new, as it has historical roots in northern China and has gained traction internationally with products like sea salt and cheese [3]. - The introduction of salty milk tea aligns with the industry's need for innovation to combat homogenization and declining growth rates, with the Chinese tea beverage market growth slowing to 5%-7% since 2025 [4][5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Social media plays a significant role in the popularity of salty milk tea, with discussions and reviews driving consumer interest and engagement [3][4]. - The younger demographic is particularly open to trying new flavors, contributing to the trend's visibility and potential success [3][4]. Group 3: Product Development - The number of new product launches in the beverage sector is substantial, with tea brands accounting for 70.7% of new products, indicating a competitive landscape [5]. - Brands are increasingly incorporating diverse ingredients, such as grains, into their offerings to enhance flavor and appeal to health-conscious consumers [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The long-term viability of salty milk tea as a mainstream product remains uncertain and will require further market validation [6].

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is experiencing a wave of app closures, with many banks, including state-owned and city commercial banks, shutting down their independent apps, particularly in the credit card and direct banking sectors [2][3]. Group 1: App Closures and Mergers - Over 10 small and medium-sized banks have completed the shutdown of their credit card apps in 2024, with at least 6 more expected to follow by October 2025, integrating their functions into main mobile banking apps [3]. - China Bank has become the first state-owned bank to close its independent credit card app, "Bountiful Life," migrating all functions to the "Bank of China" app [2][3]. - The trend of closing direct banking apps began earlier, with at least 21 banks ceasing operations of their direct banking apps in 2023, reducing the number of such apps to less than one-tenth of their peak [3][8]. Group 2: Reasons for App Consolidation - The closure of multiple apps is driven by the need to reduce operational costs and improve user experience, as many independent apps have low user engagement and high maintenance costs [7][8]. - Regulatory pressures have accelerated the consolidation process, with financial authorities mandating banks to optimize or terminate apps that have low user activity and high compliance risks [8]. - The credit card industry is entering a contraction phase, with a decline in the number of credit cards issued and overall transaction activity, prompting banks to shut down underperforming apps [8]. Group 3: User Behavior and Market Trends - Users prefer a single app that offers comprehensive financial and lifestyle services, leading banks to recognize the importance of a unified digital experience [7][9]. - The banking sector is transitioning from a phase of aggressive app proliferation to a more rational approach, focusing on enhancing user engagement and operational efficiency [7][9]. - The decline in user engagement is evident, with only a few credit card service apps achieving over 10 million monthly active users, while many others struggle to maintain relevance [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains a "outperform" rating for Uni-President China (00220), while lowering the profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 3% and 6% to 2.23 billion and 2.47 billion yuan respectively, with a target price of 11.5 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 28.5% based on 20/18 times P/E for 2025/2026 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's net profit reached 726 million yuan, representing an 8.4% year-on-year increase, aligning with market expectations [1] - The estimated Q3 revenue remained flat year-on-year, with food business showing moderate growth while beverage business faced slight declines due to intensified competition in the market [2] - The gross margin for the first nine months of 2025 showed a slight improvement year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material prices and increased capacity utilization [3] Group 2: Business Strategy and Market Conditions - The beverage segment experienced a decline in October compared to Q3, primarily due to external factors such as delivery subsidies and industry destocking, but the company maintains a stable pricing strategy and aims to explore high-potential outlets for future growth [4] - The company introduced new products in Q3, including 100% NFC blueberry juice and lemon ginger apple juice, to enhance its product portfolio [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing expense inputs and brand building, leading to a decrease in expense ratio year-on-year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcements from China and the U.S. indicate a shift towards cooperation in economic relations, moving from "consumptive competition" to "cooperative growth" [2] Group 1: Economic Cooperation - The bilateral trade between China and the U.S. accounts for approximately one-fifth of global trade, highlighting the need for both countries to focus on creating new opportunities rather than merely adjusting existing trade balances [2] - China is advancing high-level opening-up policies and aligning with international trade standards, which expands investment opportunities for U.S. companies [4] - The potential for collaboration in emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and digital economy is significant, as both countries possess complementary strengths [3] Group 2: Strategic Shifts - The transition from a zero-sum game mentality to a focus on shared growth is essential for sustainable relations, emphasizing problem-solving and responsibility over power dynamics [4] - The global economy is at a critical juncture, and a focus on collaborative efforts in high-risk, high-reward fields like AI and climate change is necessary for long-term success [5] - The resilience and inherent dynamics of U.S.-China relations suggest that a broader perspective and mature handling of conflicts can lead to mutual growth and benefits for both nations [5]

Core Insights - The soy sauce market in China is experiencing a cooling trend, with significant performance differentiation among leading companies [2][4] Group 1: Company Performance - Haitian Flavor Industry (海天味业) is the only company to achieve both revenue and net profit growth in the first three quarters, with revenue of 21.628 billion yuan, up 6.02%, and net profit of 5.322 billion yuan, up 10.54% [2][3] - Zhongju High-tech (中炬高新) reported its largest revenue decline since 2016, with revenue of 3.156 billion yuan, down 20.01%, and net profit of 380 million yuan, down 34.07% [2][3] - ST Jiajia (ST加加) remains in a loss position, with revenue of 1.009 billion yuan, down 2.65%, and a net loss of 18.0368 million yuan [3][5] Group 2: Market Trends - The soy sauce market is projected to reach 104.1 billion yuan by 2024, with a five-year compound annual growth rate of only 2.3%, lower than the overall seasoning industry growth rate of 4.5% [3][4] - The industry is facing a "Matthew Effect," where stronger companies continue to dominate, making it challenging for others to find new growth points in a saturated market [1][4] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Haitian Flavor Industry plans to use 20% of its fundraising for overseas market expansion, starting with Southeast Asia, where a production base in Indonesia is under construction [4][5] - Zhongju High-tech is enhancing its marketing efforts by signing celebrity endorsements and increasing the number of distributors, although this has led to rising sales expenses [4][5] - ST Jiajia is focusing on a "low-salt strategy" and has developed new low-salt products, but its recent change in ownership structure adds uncertainty to its future [5]

Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor products of Jinshiyuan have significantly declined, with multiple operational indicators showing a downward trend in the first three quarters of 2025 [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Jinshiyuan reported total revenue of 88.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.66%, and a net profit of 25.49 billion yuan, down 17.39% [3][4]. - The third quarter alone saw revenue drop to 19.3 billion yuan, a decline of 26.8%, with net profit plummeting 48.69% to 3.2 billion yuan [3][4]. - The company’s cash flow from operations fell sharply by 59.33% to 9.07 billion yuan, indicating tightening liquidity [7]. Market Dynamics - Jinshiyuan's revenue from its main market in Jiangsu decreased by 12.4% to 79.55 billion yuan, while revenue from outside Jiangsu only slightly increased by 0.6%, accounting for less than 10% of total revenue [2][8]. - The company’s product lineup includes three main brands: Guoyuan, Jinshiyuan, and Gaogou, with Guoyuan focusing on high-end markets [8][12]. Competitive Landscape - The company faces intense competition in Jiangsu, with brands like Yanghe and Kuaijishan increasing their market presence [12][13]. - Jinshiyuan's high-end products are under pressure, with the "Special A+" category revenue dropping by 15.97% to 54.35 billion yuan [11][12]. Strategic Adjustments - In response to market challenges, Jinshiyuan is shifting its focus from absolute growth to maintaining market share, emphasizing the importance of market presence over revenue figures [15][17]. - The company plans to strengthen its product offerings in the 100-300 yuan price range to capture a broader consumer base [16][17]. Future Outlook - Jinshiyuan's management anticipates that despite current pressures, performance may rebound starting in the second quarter of the following year as market conditions improve [17].