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工业硅:终端低迷库存高企,硅价延续弱势
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 04:41
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current absolute price of industrial silicon has reached a historical low, but due to weak end - market demand and high inventory, the industrial silicon market will remain weak in the short term [2]. 3. Key Points from Different Aspects Market Price - This week, the industrial silicon market showed a downward trend in both spot and futures prices. The price of East China oxygen - fed 553 silicon is 9,500 - 9,900 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is 10,200 - 10,600 yuan/ton. On Friday, the closing price of the main industrial silicon futures contract si2506 was 8,780 yuan, down 0.85%, with an increase of 10,449 lots in positions, the current open interest was 193,100 lots, and the trading volume was 8.356 billion yuan [1]. Supply - In the supply side, small factories in the north have increased their production cut - back efforts, mostly with 12,500KVA furnaces. However, the gradual start - up in the south has offset some of the production reduction, resulting in limited week - on - week fluctuations in weekly supply. The start - up in the southern production areas is slowly recovering, but some small and medium - sized manufacturers still lack confidence in resuming production and are mostly in a wait - and - see mode. In the short term, the supply is still concentrated in the north. A large northern factory plans to conduct maintenance soon, and the production cut situation is unclear. Despite the current low - level start - up, there is still an expectation of increased national production during the wet season [1]. Demand - For the downstream polysilicon plants, the powder single - tender prices released this week decreased by about 500 - 700 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The supply of silicon material enterprises decreased slightly this week, but with the decline in terminal installation demand, the prices of components and cells dropped rapidly, and market expectations weakened significantly. The price of organic silicon DMC showed a fluctuating downward trend, with the mainstream opening price at 11,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). The growth rate of new capacity of organic silicon monomers has slowed down significantly, and monomer plants have taken turns to cut production. The aluminum alloy ingot price is weak, and the spot market shows weak supply and demand, with low trading volume [1]. Inventory - On April 25, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 69,502 lots, a decrease of 859 lots in a single week, but the warehouse receipt inventory is still at a high level [1].