自 2025 年下半年以来，碳酸锂价格强势上涨，其核心支撑因素是合意库存抬 升。在 2025 年上半年，大多数人认为这是一个过剩产业，并预期其终点是市 场化出清。然而，从 2025 年七月开始，一系列反内卷政策出台，加之宁德时 代旗下矿山炒作及储能需求超预期等因素，使得市场情绪逐步从悲观转向中性 甚至乐观。目前市场处于一种亢奋状态，这种变化在产业上的表现就是合意库 存抬升。 有色金属专场 - 2026 年年度策略会议 · 恒中有变，观复 顺时 20260114 摘要 碳酸锂价格上涨的核心在于合意库存抬升，市场情绪由悲观转向乐观。 2026 年新能源汽车增速预计放缓至 17.7%，储能电池需求增速预计为 40%，需关注电池价格对经济性的影响。 影响碳酸锂价格的关键因素包括政策倾向变化（反垄断风险）、金融属 性变化（贵金属及有色金属联动）以及年度供需格局。2026 年预计碳 酸锂供应过剩将逼近 10 万吨级别，价格波动区间预计在 10 万至 18 万 元/吨。 镍市场面临政策与现货过剩的博弈，不锈钢、硫酸镍和纯镍供应链终端 均出现历史性过剩特征，库存处于多年高位。不锈钢行业仍是主要增长 引擎，但三元领域受磷酸铁锂 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-14 工业硅： SMM统计1月8日工业硅主要地区社会库存共55.2万吨，较上周减少0.9%。 基本面维持弱势，双硅同步下跌 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13700-14000（0）元/吨。近日国家取消光伏增值税出口退税政策，短期多 晶硅需求有上涨预期，多晶硅强出口有望提振工业硅需求端，消费短期存在上行空间，但由于离政策生效的4月还 远，需求提振尚未显露。铝硅合金企业开工率小幅下降，有机硅维持错峰减排政策。铝合金下游需求呈现边际走 弱，预计后续开工率以稳中偏弱为主。 策略 工业硅价格预计将维持区间震荡，供需双减的情况下叠加煤炭价格与光伏产业链价格上涨传导效果，价格支撑明 显。上行高度取决于下游需求恢复和库存去化进度，下行空间则受成本支撑和减产预期限制。 市场分析 2026-01-13，工业硅期货价格震荡下跌，主力合约2605开于8710元/吨，最后收于8635元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-145） 元/吨，变化（-1.65）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓242469手，2026-01-12仓单总数为10888手，较前一日变化 0手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基 ...

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are experiencing price fluctuations, with industrial silicon prices showing a slight decline and polysilicon prices also decreasing, influenced by supply and demand dynamics and recent policy changes in the photovoltaic sector [2][5][7]. Supply Side - Industrial silicon futures prices have shown a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 8635 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton or 1.65% from the previous day [2]. - The supply of industrial silicon remains stable, with prices for various grades holding steady across multiple regions, including East China and Xinjiang [2][13]. - As of January 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [13]. Demand Side - The demand for polysilicon is expected to rise due to the recent cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products, although the actual impact may not be felt until April when the policy takes effect [3][7]. - The operating rate of aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises has slightly decreased, and the demand for aluminum alloys is showing marginal weakness [3][7]. Price Outlook - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, supported by cost factors and production cut expectations, while the extent of price increases will depend on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction [4][14]. - Polysilicon futures prices have also shown a decline, with the main contract closing at 49005 yuan/ton, down 4.45% from the previous trading day [5][18]. Market Strategy - The recent policy changes in the photovoltaic industry may lead to short-term spikes in polysilicon demand, but the long-term effects could involve overshooting demand [7][18]. - The overall market sentiment is weak, with a recommendation to maintain a cautious stance in the short term and consider short positions in the medium to long term [7][18].

黑色建材日报 2026-01-14 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3158 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 7 元/吨（-0.22%）。当日注册仓单 55933 吨, 环比增加 1512 吨。主力合约持仓量为 168.79 万手，环比减少 38760 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3303 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 8 元/吨（-0.24%）。 当日注册仓单 173103 吨, 环比增加 60866 吨。主力合约持仓量 ...

乳目技 2026年1月14日 周敏波 Z0015979 | 价格及基差 | | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 102510 | 103235 | -725.00 | -0.70% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 60 | 60 | 0.00 | | 元/肥 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 102155 | 103165 | -1010.00 | -0.98% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 20 | 5 | +15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 102395 | 103110 | -715.00 | -0.69% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -55 | -65 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 50ae | 5537 | -440.71 | -7.96% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 64.31 | 41.94 | +22.37 | - | 美 ...

工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2026 年 01 月 13 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Copper: The medium - to long - term fundamentals of copper remain good, with supply - side capital expenditure constraints supporting a gradual upward shift in the bottom. Short - term prices are likely to stay strong due to the structural imbalance of global inventories and the risk premium of metal supply concerns. However, real terminal demand is weak at high prices. Focus on changes in CL premium, LME inventory, and the 99000 - 100000 support level [1]. - Zinc: The shortage of zinc ore at the mine end supports prices, but the import window for zinc ore is opening, limiting the downside space of TC. The supply pressure of refined zinc is relieved, and demand is suppressed. Overseas and domestic inventories are increasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the tight domestic zinc ore supply and pressure from the expected supply of imported ore and weak demand feedback. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, and the 23300 - 23400 support level [4]. - Nickel: The nickel market has seen significant price fluctuations. The unclear result of the 2026 nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market sentiment. High nickel prices have restricted downstream transactions, and the supply and demand situation is complex. Short - term prices are expected to adjust in a wide range, with the main contract running in the 132000 - 142000 range [6]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market is mainly driven by nickel raw materials. The unclear nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market expectations. The supply pressure has eased slightly, but demand in the off - season is weak. The cost support from the ore end and nickel - iron is strengthened. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract in the 13400 - 14200 range [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market has seen a significant increase in the price center last week. The supply - side shock expectation is strengthened, and demand is expected to be optimistic. The inventory situation has changed, with upstream inventory increasing and downstream inventory decreasing. The market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend, with a focus on the 150000 breakthrough and liquidity risks [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon market is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand in January. Supply may decrease by 1 - 20,000 tons, and demand is expected to decline slightly. Exports may increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton range [11]. - Polysilicon: In January, the polysilicon market is in a weak - demand situation, with high inventory and price pressure. There is a need for further production cuts to balance supply and demand. Pay attention to the impact of antitrust news, the possibility of production cuts, and the redistribution of industrial chain profits. The 50000 yuan/ton level may provide support, and trading is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Tin: The short - term price of tin is greatly affected by macro - sentiment. The supply side may be affected by the situation in Congo (Kinshasa), and demand shows regional differences. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and operations should be cautious [13]. - Alumina: The alumina market has been oscillating widely. The supply is rigid, and demand is weak, with inventory accumulating. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract in the 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton range. A rebound depends on capacity - control policies or large - scale production cuts [14]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price has risen strongly, driven by macro and policy expectations. However, the fundamentals are under pressure, with supply increasing and demand being suppressed by high prices, and inventory starting to accumulate. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely at a high level, with the main contract in the 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton range [14]. - Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum - alloy market has shown a strong trend, mainly driven by cost factors. However, the supply and demand are both weak, with supply affected by raw - material shortages and demand being suppressed by high prices. Inventory has been gradually decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract in the 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton range [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 100275 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.77%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased to 41.94 dollars/ton [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 24170 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.58%. The import profit and loss was - 1887 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased to 141900 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 4.80%. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 196 dollars/ton [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained at 13800 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 increased to - 85 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 140000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.08%. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 was - 580 yuan/ton [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained at 9650 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased to 25 yuan/ton [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re -投料 was 55000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.90%. The main contract price dropped to 51300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased to 349750 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.49%. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to 370 yuan/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 24030 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.12%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum was 176.8 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained at 23700 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to - 105 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, a 6.80% increase month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 27.11 million tons, a 3.90% decrease [1]. - **Zinc**: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, a 7.24% decrease month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 1.82 million tons, a 3.22% decrease [4]. - **Nickel**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% month - on - month. The import volume in November increased by 30.08% [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 25.31% [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, a 4.04% increase month - on - month. The demand decreased by 2.50% [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the expected production of industrial silicon may decrease to 38 - 39 million tons. The demand is expected to decline by about 1 million tons [11]. - **Polysilicon**: In December, polysilicon production was 11.55 million tons, a 0.79% increase month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 2041.76% [12]. - **Tin**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81% month - on - month. In December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly [13]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production was 751.96 million tons, a 1.08% increase month - on - month. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [15]. Inventory Data - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory increased by 14.61% week - on - week to 27.38 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 1.49% day - on - day to 13.90 million tons [1]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 11.69% week - on - week to 11.85 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 0.51% day - on - day to 10.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased by 2.43% week - on - week to 46650 tons. LME inventory increased by

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 反内卷遇上反垄断，价格剧烈波动 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-1-12 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 投资咨询证号：Z0023460 工业硅：下游进一步减产，硅价支撑偏弱 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）全国周产8.03 万吨，环比-0.77%；全国开炉228 台，环比-3台。 | | 供给端 | 偏多 | （2）主产区：新疆地区周产5.08 万吨，环比-1.55%，开炉数环比-3台。云南地区周产0.43 万吨，环比一致，开炉数环比一致。四川地区周产 | | | | 0.22 万吨，环比-一致，开炉数环比一致。 | | | | （3）12月产量3 ...

Group 1: Macro Overview - The US non-farm employment population increased by 50,000 in December 2025, below the expected 60,000 and the previous value of 64,000 [18] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, compared to the expected 4.5% and the previous 4.6% [18] - The Federal Reserve report indicates that consumers expect prices to rise by 3.4% over the next year, up from 3.2% in November [18] Group 2: Copper Market Fundamentals - Domestic TC quotes for copper concentrate remain at historical lows, maintaining tight supply sentiment, supported by the ongoing strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile [19] - January electrolytic copper production is estimated at 1.1636 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% but a year-on-year increase of 14.7% due to tight copper concentrate supply [19] - In November, net imports of refined copper decreased by 58.16% year-on-year to 161,700 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 5.87% month-on-month to 208,100 tons [19] Group 3: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - As of January 9, global visible copper inventory increased by 48,000 tons to 961,000 tons, with LME inventory decreasing by 8,450 tons to 138,975 tons [19] - Domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 34,900 tons week-on-week to 273,800 tons, indicating cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [19] - The copper price has risen again, but downstream enterprises are purchasing cautiously, focusing on essential needs [19] Group 4: Policy Impact on Market - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, and a reduction in the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% [20] - The market anticipates a rush to export in the first quarter, which may temporarily boost demand for certain commodities, making it difficult for prices to sustain a downward trend [20] - Overall, the market is expected to remain in a volatile upward trend before the Spring Festival, with a focus on feedback regarding the new policy [20]

黑色建材日报 2026-01-12 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3144 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 24 元/吨（-0.75%）。当日注册仓单 55633 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 171.49 万手，环比减少 66939 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 30 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3294 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 23 元/吨（-0.69%）。 当日注册仓单 112237 吨, 环比增加 3536 吨。主力合约持仓量为 141 ...