| 7 Elittre | 度策略参考 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2026 | | | | | | | | | 行业板块 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品種 | 短期内,关注中东战事的演变,若战事快速了结,对标2025年6月 | 13日,以色列袭击伊朗核设施。6月24日伊以签订停火协议,伊以 | | | | 冲突结束，股指经历了震荡调整后,市场情绪快速恢复,向上突 | 破打开上行趋势。因此,若本次中东局势未进一步恶化,则股指 | 宏观金融 | 短期的调整将带来较好的多头布局机会。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行示利率风险,近期关注日 | 国 债 | 本央行利率决策。 | 近期宏观利多推升铜价,但全球铜库存持续累库压制价格,预计 | | | | | | 短期铜价震荡偏强运行。 | 近期宏观利好提振有色板块,但国内铝库存大幅累库或拖累铝 | 价,短期铝价震荡偏强运行。 | | | | | | | 国内氧化铝运行产能下降,但库存进一步累库,短期震荡运行。 | ...

研究所 期货眼·日迹 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 3 月 2 日 0 / 50 | | | | 蛋白粕：宏观扰动增加 | 价格整体高位 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖业下调全球糖产 | 国际糖价震荡 6 | | 油脂板块：地缘冲突升级，油脂波动或加大 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货上涨，盘面继续冲高 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力较大 | 价格继续下行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节后进入淡季 | 蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：苹果需求有所好转 | 价格较为坚挺 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面有所支撑 | 棉价表现偏强 12 | | 钢材：地缘冲突爆发，钢价震荡跟涨 14 | | --- | | 双焦：地缘冲突加剧，可尝试逢低做多 14 | | 铁矿：地缘冲突加大，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：陕西差别电价落地，震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：地缘冲突爆发，避险主导金银 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：中东地缘冲突升级 避险需求推升贵金属价格 18 | | 铜：短期高位盘整，回调后 ...

招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周五夜盘贵金属走强，以伦敦金计价的国际金价涨 1.8%至 5277 美元/盎司，以伦敦银计价的国际 银价涨 6.28%至 93.82 美元/盎司。 基本面：周末美以突然对伊朗动武，哈梅内伊遇袭身亡，引发伊朗反击，中东局势趋紧，市场避险情绪急升。 美 PPI 超预期增长，美债价格加速上涨，十年期美债收益率下破 4.0%、创四个月新低；美元指数短线转涨并 刷新日高；美国不考虑释放战略油储应对袭伊或推升油价；OPEC+4 月小幅增产 20.6 万桶/日。国内黄金 ETF 小幅流入 1.3 吨；COMEX 黄金库存为 1036.3 吨，-5.2 吨；上期所黄金库存为 105.1 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1101.3 吨，+3.4 吨，；伦敦黄金库存 1 月底 9155.8 吨，12 月底为 9103 吨；COMEX 白银 库存为 11206.3 吨，-9.5 吨；上期所白银库存为 306.6 吨，-39.8 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 15992.4 吨， -104.3 吨；金交所白银上周库存 450 吨，-43 吨；伦敦 1 月末白银库存从 278 ...

2026年03月01日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 | 2 | | 工业硅：上游复产，关注市场情绪扰动 | 11 | | 多晶硅：关注市场"反内卷"情绪 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：基本面向好，关注市场情绪 | 20 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 1 日 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 1）精炼镍：2 月 27 日中国精炼镍社会库存增加 3616 吨至 76619 吨。其中，仓单库存增加 673 吨至 53131 吨；现货库存增加 3343 吨至 20018 吨；保税区库存减少 400 吨至 3470 吨。LME 镍库存增加 888 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 商 品 研 究 行情观点： 沪镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三 ...

/ 研究所 有色板块研发报告 工业硅 3 月报 2026年2月27日 | | | | 第一部分 前言概要… | | --- | | 【供需展望】 … | | 【交易逻辑】 … | | 【策略推荐】 … | | 第二部分 基本面情况 . | | 一、行情回顾 | | 二、需求：３月工业硅需求环比增加… | | 三、供应：3 月工业硅产量主要关注龙头大厂复产 | | 四、成本及库存：成本关注煤炭，库存并不显著利空……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 9 | | 第三部分 后市展望及策略推荐 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 11 | | 免责声明 | 第 1 页 共 12 本报告内容观点仅供参考,不作为入市依据 期货/研究所 工业硅 3 月报 有色板块研发 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-26 硅价持续震荡，去库过程艰难 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-02-25，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8380元/吨，最后收于8430元/吨，较前一日结算变化（25） 元/吨，变化（0.3）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓313959手，2026-02-24仓单总数为20817手，较前一日变化840 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格下跌。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（-50）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 策略 工业硅价格预计将维持区间震荡，目前供应端显著收缩，价格支撑明显，但多晶硅高库存始终压制需求，价格缺 乏上行动力。供需双弱下，关注节后大厂复工计划及资金情绪变化。上行高度取决于下游需求恢复和库存去化进 度，下行空间则受成本支撑和减产预期限制。 单边：短期区间操作 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 SMM统计2月12日 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-25 供需仍待恢复，价格维持震荡 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-02-24，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8475元/吨，最后收于8410元/吨，较前一日结算变化（45） 元/吨，变化（0.54）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓293851手，2026-02-23仓单总数为19977手，较前一日变化 456手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9400（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计2月12日工业硅主要地区社会库存共55.7万吨，较上周减少0.89%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13800-14000（0）元/吨。春节期间，下游多晶硅，有机硅，铝合金需求均 有不同程度减少，节后多以试探性询单为主。 供给端：与需求端同步收缩，大厂减产且内蒙四川边际产量减少。 据SMM，近日，衢州市生态环境局发布 ...

2026年02月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，价格表现较坚挺 | 4 | | 工业硅：处于相对低估值区间 | 6 | | 多晶硅：情绪或提振盘面 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 25 日 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 2）根据钢联，印尼镍矿商协会 (APNI) 透露，能源和矿产资源部（ESDM）将于 2026 年初修订镍矿商 品的基准价格公式，修订要点之一是政府将开始将镍的伴生矿钴视为独立商品并征收特许权使用费。 3）SMM 报道印尼林业工作组披露了多家企业违规占用林地，面临的潜在罚款约 80.2 万亿印尼盾，部 分受影响的矿山正与政府部门进行积极协商 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜： （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 隔夜内外铜价震荡偏强，国内精炼铜现货进口窗口一度打开。宏观方面，特朗普政府10%全球关税周二 即将征收，税率是否进一步升至15%待定，但美国政府不确定性关税行为加剧了全球经济的不确定性。 国内方面，中国商务部回应美国关税调整，将适时决定调整针对美方原芬太尼关税和对等关税的反制措 施。库存方面，LME铜库存增加1350吨至243175吨，值得注意的是假期期间LME美洲仓库大量涌入， 或因Comex-LME价差大幅收窄所致；Comex铜库存增加1024吨至545736吨；SMM周二统计节假日期间 全国主流地区境内社会库存增加超15万吨至50.85万吨，关注后续累库情况。需求方面，关注节后开工 情况。短期铜价面临高位宽幅震荡，不排除宏观情绪退潮与库存压力共振带来的二次回调风险。但驱动 铜价上行的核心逻辑——全球铜矿资本开支不足导致的供给缺口，以及新能源、AI算力基础设施的需 求增量，并未发生根本性转变，因此节后若铜价因宏观与基本面现实趋弱出现短期深度回调，将是布局 中长 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].