投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 仓单集中注销，基本面变动不大 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-12-1 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号： F03123927 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 工业硅：供需双减，仓单集中注销 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）全国周产8.90 万吨，环比-0.19%；全国开炉257 台，环比-5台。 | | 供给端 | 偏多 | （2）主产区：新疆地区周产5.03 吨，环比+1.21%，开炉数环比-1台。云南地区周产0.69 万吨，环比一致，开炉数环比一致。四川地区周产 0.62 万吨，环比-8.82%，开炉数环比-3台。 | | | | （3）10月产量45.22万吨，环比+7.46%，同比-3.7 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普称已确定下任美联储主席人选 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-01 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普已确定下任美联储主席人选 特朗普最新表态已确定下任美联储主席，我们预计哈赛特当选， 因此预计市场风险偏好继续上升，美元走弱。 宏观策略（国债期货） 中国 11 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49.2，符合预期 综 大跌后债市赔率改善，在无利空的情况下出现自发反弹是正常 的，但反弹力度也并不强，后续随着政策预期上升，国债存在 再度调整的风险。 合 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 晨 持续暴雨在印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛引发洪灾和山体滑坡 报 产地暴雨致洪灾，棕榈油供应压力预期减轻 有色金属（铜） CSPT 达成共识：2026 年降低矿铜产能负荷 10%以上 宏观利多因素继续发酵，叠加市场对国内冶炼厂减产预期增强， 预计铜价将继续震荡上涨，策略上建议逢低做多。 能源化工（原油） 欧佩克+确认在明年第一季度暂停增产计划 周末 OPEC+会议决定维持明年一季度暂停增产政策。 | 黄玉萍 | 资深分析师 | （农产品） | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table ...

如何看大化工的投资机会？20251130 摘要 2025 年至 2027 年化工行业的投资机会如何？ 我们非常看好从现在到 2026 年甚至到 2027 年的化工行业投资机会，预计会 有一次大宗商品景气向上的机会。首先，从行业位置来看，目前绝大部分化工 产品的价格或单吨毛利都处于历史低位。主要原因是过去几年国内扩产较为迅 猛，导致供给过剩。然而，需求并未下降，因此未来供需关系将有所改善。 从 供应端来看，国内外均出现了积极信号。国内方面，由于盈利不佳，企业主动 收缩资本开支，自 2024 年起化工上市公司资本开支已实现负增长，并预计这 持续看好景气度品种，包括全球空调及维修市场需求稳定的制冷剂（巨 化、三美、永和东苑），磷矿石扩产受限且储能需求超预期的磷化工 （川恒、兴发、云天化），以及农业需求稳定增长的钾肥（亚钾国际、 盐湖股份）。 关注估值处于底部且有量增潜力的优质标的，如万华化学、华鲁恒升、 龙佰集团、华宏新材等公司。同时，轮胎、新材料等成长类公司也值得 关注，如赛轮轮胎、新诺邦、圣泉集团等。 预计 2026 年美联储将降息三次，利率降至 3%左右，带动全球经济软 着陆。石化行业重点关注 PTA 领域， ...

| 【供需展望】 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 【交易逻辑】 | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | 二、需求：12 月工业硅需求环比走弱 4 | | | 三、供应：12 月工业硅产量环比 11 月降低 | 7 | | 四、成本及库存：成本小幅上移，厂家低库存支撑盘面 9 | | | 第三部分 后市展望及策略推荐 11 | | | 免责声明 12 | | 有色板块研发报告 工业硅 12 月报 2025 年 11 月 28 日 区间震荡，关注西北环保情况 第一部分 前言概要 【供需展望】 1.单边：区间操作，价格参考（8500,9500） 2.套利：Si2601、Si2602 正套 3.期权：逢低卖出虚值看跌期权 风险提示：西北环保导致工业硅减产 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：陈寒松 电 话： 邮 箱： chenhansong_qh@chinastock.com .cn 期货从业资格证号：F03129697 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020351 作者承诺 本人具有中国期货业协会授予的 期货从业资 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-28 供需双弱，工业硅多晶硅基本面变化不大 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-11-27，工业硅期货价格偏强震荡运行，主力合约2601开于9000元/吨，最后收于9115元/吨，较前一日结算变 化（120）元/吨，变化（1.33）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓237648手，2025-11-27仓单总数为39555手，较前 一日变化-870手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9500-9600（50）元/吨；421#硅在9700-9900 （50）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-9000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-9000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、 天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计11月27日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计55万吨，较上周增加0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库12.9万吨，较上 周持平，社会交割仓库42.1万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货库部分），较上周增加0.2万吨。（不含宁夏、甘肃、内蒙 等地）。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13100-13300（0）元/吨。SMM ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon market is expected to mainly experience range - bound fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the positions of the 2512 contract of polysilicon [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - For industrial silicon Si2601, the closing price is 9,115 yuan/ton, with changes of - 95 yuan compared to T - 1, - 40 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 160 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 323,524 lots, down 45,701 lots from T - 1, down 250,821 lots from T - 5, and up 62,437 lots from T - 22. The open interest is 237,648 lots, down 22,881 lots from T - 1, down 36,330 lots from T - 5, and up 25,978 lots from T - 22 [2]. - For polysilicon PS2601, the closing price is 55,235 yuan/ton, down 660 yuan from T - 1 and up 2,785 yuan from T - 5. The trading volume is 324,070 lots, down 6,246 lots from T - 1 and up 19,235 lots from T - 5. The open interest is 141,586 lots, down 1,457 lots from T - 1 and up 7,294 lots from T - 5 [2]. - **Price and Basis**: - Industrial silicon spot prices vary by region. For example, Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,900 yuan/ton, and Yunnan Si4210 is 10,000 yuan/ton. Polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock is 52,300 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of industrial silicon and polysilicon also shows different trends. For example, the industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is + 435 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profit**: - Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang (new standard 553) are - 2,154.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) are - 3,401 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profits are 7.7 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory**: - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 550,000 tons, with an increase of 2,000 tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 8,000 tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory of industrial silicon (sample enterprises) is 180,000 tons, with an increase of 1,800 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 12,000 tons compared to T - 22. The industry inventory (social + enterprise inventory) is 730,000 tons, with an increase of 3,800 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 3,900 tons compared to T - 22. The industrial silicon futures warehouse receipt inventory is 198,000 tons, down 4,000 tons from T - 1, down 14,000 tons from T - 5, and down 42,000 tons from T - 22. The polysilicon factory inventory is 281,000 tons, with an increase of 10,000 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 20,000 tons compared to T - 22 [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: - The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions are provided. For example, the price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan is 290 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On November 22, 2025, the list of winning bidders for the 2025 photovoltaic module centralized procurement project of China Energy Engineering Group Co., Ltd. was publicly announced. The total scale of the tender is estimated to be 17GW, divided into 8 bid packages, covering 182mm TOPCon modules, 210mm TOPCon modules, HJT modules, and BC modules [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity of polysilicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For industrial silicon, the spot price remains stable, and the supply - demand pattern may improve during the dry season but still shows a cumulative inventory pattern. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote, the futures may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply and demand both weaken, with high inventory pressure and general consumption performance. The futures are affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and are expected to fluctuate mainly [3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On November 26, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,960 yuan/ton and closed at 9,020 yuan/ton, a change of 0.28% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 260,529 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 40,425 lots, a decrease of 289 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with prices in various regions unchanged [1] - The Lanzhou Dongjin Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. organic silicon integration project (change) has its total land area changed to 1,667.45 mu. The first - phase product is changed to 400,000 tons/year of industrial silicon blocks, and the second - phase will build a production line for 400,000 tons/year of organic silicon monomers and supporting downstream products [2] - The organic silicon DMC market is stable, with a current mainstream quotation of 13,100 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices, and downstream enterprises actively follow up, with increased market confidence. It is expected to run steadily and strongly in the short term [2] Polysilicon - On November 26, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2601 showed a strong - side fluctuation, opening at 54,730 yuan/ton and closing at 55,895 yuan/ton, a 2.93% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 143,043 lots, and the trading volume was 330,316 lots [4] - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased, with polysilicon inventory at 271,000 tons (a 1.50% change) and silicon wafer inventory at 18.72 GW (a 1.63% change). The weekly polysilicon production was 27,100 tons (a 1.11% change), and the silicon wafer production was 12.78 GW (a - 2.59% change) [4][5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were provided, with some prices remaining stable and some having slight changes [5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The spot price is stable. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and contracts during the dry season can be bought at low prices [3] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures are affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [6]

工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 11 月 27 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In November, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market will both decline, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still expected to be inventory accumulation pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expected in each link, but strong spot support. The backwardation market structure will remain. For trading strategies, try to go long at around 50,000 for futures; hold or take profit on sell put options for options, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [2]. Tin - With strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Hold previous long positions and pay attention to macro - end changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [4]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Whether the market can rebound depends on the actual production cut scale of existing enterprises and the inventory inflection point. Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton. Focus on overseas monetary policy trends and domestic inventory destocking rhythm [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - side pressure has gradually eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. However, the terminal demand has remained stable, and there is limited upward momentum. The main reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to macro - drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations. The main reference range is 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the market may oscillate and repair. In the medium term, the abundant supply will still restrict the upward space of prices. The main reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, cost support is weakening, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There is still pressure on the supply - side steel mill production schedule and social inventory, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, with the main operating range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main reference range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan. Although the market has a bullish sentiment, there is limited substantial new driving force [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable on November 25, 2025, while the basis of some varieties decreased. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 540 yuan, with a decline of 3.57% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, while the price of battery cells decreased. The main contract of polysilicon futures closed at 54,730 yuan/ton, up 1,415 yuan/ton [2]. - **Tin**: The spot prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.58%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 18.32 US dollars/ton, with a rise of 19.15% [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.37%. The price of alumina in various regions remained stable [6]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 20 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.09%. The import loss was - 4,312 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.69 yuan/ton [7]. - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 375 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.43%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 378.62 yuan/ton, with a rise of 13.42% [8]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.68%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable on November 26, 2025. The refined - scrap price difference of some regions changed, such as the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.57% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable at 12,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, while the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.79% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. decreased slightly on November 26, 2025. For example, the price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.11% [15]. Monthly Spreads - Different contracts of various metals showed different changes in monthly spreads. For example, in industrial silicon, the spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601 remained unchanged; in tin, the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 450 yuan/ton, with a rise of 107.14% [1][4]. Fundamental Data Production - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon production is expected to decline to around 400,000 tons. In October, the national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The production in Xinjiang increased by 15.94%, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly production in October was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The weekly production was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.12% [2]. - **Tin**: In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09%. The average operating rate was 66.81%, a month - on - month increase of 53.23% [4]. - **Aluminum**: In October, alumina production was 778,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; electrolytic aluminum production was 374,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [6]. - **Zinc**: In October, refined zinc production was 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [7]. - **Copper**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1,091,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% [8]. - **Nickel**: In October, China's refined nickel production was 35,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 286,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 1,787,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73% [15]. Import and Export - Different metals have different import and export trends. For example, the import of refined tin in October decreased by 58.55% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.33% month - on - month; the import of electrolytic aluminum in October increased by 0.61% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.18% month - on - month [4][6]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of different industries also vary. For example, the national operating rate of industrial silicon in October was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98%; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 52.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% [1][6]. Inventory Changes - Different metals have different inventory trends. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.37% week - on - week; the SHEF inventory of tin decreased by 0.46% week - on - week [1][4].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-26 供需两端均有减弱，多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-11-25，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8940元/吨，最后收于8960元/吨，较前一日结算变化（10） 元/吨，变化（0.11）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓263919手，2025-11-25仓单总数为40714手，较前一日变化-810 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600（0）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9900 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-9000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-9000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 国家能源局发布1-10月份全国电力工业统计数据。截至10月底，全国累计发电装机容量37.5亿千瓦，同比增长17.3%。 其中，太阳能发电装机容量11.4亿千瓦，同比增长43.8%；风电装机容量5.9亿千瓦，同比增长21.4%。2025年前十 个月，光伏新增总计253GW。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13100-1 ...