申万宏源在8月15日的研报中指出，站在当前时点，供给端我国有机硅DMC产能达峰，海外产能存退出 预期；需求端地产边际影响放缓，光伏及新能源汽车需求仍强劲，带动国内表观消费量或维持双位数增 长；出口端短期受外部环境冲击，长期看我国凭借成本优势，有望持续抢占海外份额。综上，我国有机 硅DMC行业开工率将由2024年的67%逐步提升至2025年的76%和2026年的83%，供需格局逐步向好，叠 加"反内卷"或催化成本端支撑强劲，行业有望迎来底部反转。 前述研报称，在有机硅板块，具备规模优势、产业链配套优势的一体化企业，以及在下游深加工方面较 为出色的企业有望率先受益，建议关注合盛硅业等标的。 财报显示，今年上半年，合盛硅业有机硅业务实现营业收入46.62亿元，毛利率达到17.36%，较去年同 期增加了1个百分点。 8月27日晚间，合盛硅业（603260.SH）发布2025年半年度报告。在工业硅、有机硅及光伏行业均承压 运行背景下，公司上半年经营虽然面临一定压力，但仍实现营业收入97.75亿元。 另受整体经济波动及上下游供需错配主导产品价格下跌的影响，2025年上半年合盛硅业归母净利润 为-3.97亿元。不过，该公司 ...

| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年8月28日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品中 | 8月27日 | 8月26日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 14900 | 14950 | -50 | -0.33% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -860 | -935 | 75 | 8.02% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14700 | 14800 | -100 | -0.68% | | | 非标价差 | -1060 | -1085 | 25 | 2.30% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 50.80 | 50.10 | 0.70 | 1.40% | | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 55.45 | 55.45 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 131 ...

8月27日晚间，合盛硅业（603260）(603260.SH)发布2025年半年度报告，在工业硅、有机硅及光伏行业 均承压运行背景下，公司上半年经营面临一定压力。经过全体员工的不懈努力，2025年上半年公司实现 营业收入97.75亿元，受整体经济波动及上下游供需错配主导产品价格下跌的影响，2025年上半年公司 业绩出现一定程度的下滑，归母净利润为-3.97亿元；经营活动产生的现金流量净额为35.24亿元，同比 大幅增长1987.93%。 有机硅业务：受益于"反内卷"有望实现率先修复 碳化硅业务：延伸产业链实现创新发展 我国芯片自给率较低，碳化硅(SiC)等第三代半导体成为国产替代的关键，合盛硅业持续延伸硅基新材 料产业链，将碳化硅产品打造成为公司未来新的增长点。 目前，公司已完整掌握了碳化硅材料的原料合成、晶体生长、衬底加工以及晶片外延等全产业链核心工 艺技术，产品良率处于国内企业领先水平，关键技术指标已追赶上国际龙头。6英寸碳化硅衬底已全面 量产，晶体良率达95%以上，外延良率稳定在98%以上，处于行业领先位置；8英寸碳化硅衬底已开始 小批量生产，12英寸碳化硅衬底研发顺利，目前正常推进中。 根据百川盈孚数 ...

8月27日晚间，合盛硅业(603260.SH)发布2025年上半年财报。报告期内，公司实现营业收入97.75亿元， 同比减少26.34%，受光伏板块停工损失和计提存货跌价准备等综合影响，上半年公司归母净利润 为-3.97亿元，同比减少140.60%，与上年同期相比由盈转亏。但值得一提的是，经过库存消化及降本增 效等因素推动，公司上半年经营性现金流净额35.24亿元，同比增长1,987.93%。 结构性压力催生行业 "反内卷"举措 随着工业硅下游需求整体弱势，多晶硅整体开工率处于低位，工业硅与多晶硅价格持续下行等因素影 响，全产业链陷入"高库存-低价格-弱需求"的负反馈循环。 合盛硅业在半年报中表示，基于目前行业特点公司将重点关注以下因素：一是光伏行业"反内卷"推进情 况及多晶硅开工率的变化;二是新兴产业对有机硅需求的拉动作用;三是行业落后产能出清进度及复产节 奏。在供需格局逐步优化的背景下，工业硅价格有望在合理区间内运行，并伴随市场需求的回暖实现阶 段性修复。 研发创新驱动新兴领域需求持续释放 结合合盛硅业半年报，不难发现，公司上半年已采取了多项"反内卷"策略，包括保持合理化开工节奏、 全面深化精细化管理水平 ...

工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 08 月 27 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com. ...

弱现实与政策预期博弈，多晶硅盘面震荡运行 工业硅： 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-26 市场分析 2025-08-25，工业硅期货盘面高开低走，主力合约2511开于8930元/吨，最后收于8675元/吨，较前一日结算变化（5） 元/吨，变化（0.06）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓289125手，2025-08-25仓单总数为50938手，较前一日变化-111 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9500（100）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9700 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8700（150）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8700（200）元/吨。天津、西北、新疆、 上海地区部分硅价也上调。四川地区个别硅价下调。昆明、黄埔港地区硅价也暂稳。97硅价格同样持稳。 SMM统计8月21日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.3万吨，较上周环比减少0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库11.7万吨， 较上周环比持平，社会交割仓库42.6万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比减少0.2万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10500-110 ...

体报告中的信息均来源于称广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料。但广发期货对这么过信息的准确性及完整中不怕升级 见解及分析方法,并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下,报告内容仅供参考 资者据此投资,风险自担,本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士, 任何形式的发布、复制,如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货 产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年8月25日 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品牌 | 8月22日 | 8月21日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | 云南国营全乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 14650 | 14800 | -150 | -1.01% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -975 | -920 | -55 | -5.98% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14600 | 14600 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | -1025 | -1120 | વેર | 8.48% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:F ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains flat. The price of industrial silicon rose and then fell today, showing a downward trend in its technical form, but it found support at the 8100 integer level. It is recommended to consider long - term mid - to - long - term low - buying for long positions if the price breaks below 8200 yuan later [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the main contract position was 289125 lots, an increase of 9744 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 84679 lots, a decrease of 7835 lots; the warehouse receipts of the GZEX were 50938 lots, a decrease of 111 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon was - 35 yuan, a decrease of 15 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9350 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 675 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 324700 tons, an increase of 19500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 55.2 tons, an increase of 1 ton; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52919.65 tons, a decrease of 12197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 4.49 tons, an increase of 0.07 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kilogram; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 24908.89 tons, a decrease of 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 72.71%, a decrease of 2.34%; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 153.6 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first half of 2025, LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. achieved an operating income of 32.813 billion yuan, with a significant reduction in losses of 2.661 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year, mainly benefiting from operational efficiency improvement, which led to a significant decline in sales and management expenses and a significant reduction in asset impairment losses. Technological innovation has become the key to breaking the situation. LONGi Green Energy has launched a new round of technological engine drive with its leading differentiated BC technology. In the industrial silicon sector, on the supply side, as the flood season deepens in the southwest region, the electricity price advantage becomes more obvious, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants to accelerate. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places is increasing, and it is expected that the output of industrial silicon in the southwest region will increase week - on - week next week [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the production in Xinjiang is stable, but the enthusiasm of small and medium - sized silicon plants to resume production is not high. The production in the southwest region is expected to increase. On the demand side, the organic silicon market is weak, with a significant decline in profits and operating rate, having a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon; the polysilicon industry is expected to increase production significantly in August, increasing the demand for industrial silicon, but the long - term demand for the photovoltaic industry may shrink, which may limit the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon; the overall inventory of aluminum alloy continues to rise significantly, but the price has increased, and the overall demand for industrial silicon remains stable [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, but leading Chinese companies have strong cash flow and low debt ratios, which may enhance potential dividend yields as capacity expansion slows down [1][3][5] - Global GDP growth supports chemical demand, and changes on the supply side combined with demand growth are expected to lead to a recovery in industry prosperity [1][4] Key Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to control new capacity in sectors like coal chemical, refining, and polyurethane, which may still yield considerable dividend rates even at the cycle's bottom [1][5] - The industrial silicon and soda ash sectors, which are currently in surplus, have greater elasticity due to restrictions on existing and new capacities [1][5] - The oil and gas chemical sector has begun to see positive free cash flow in 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in the industry [8] Financial Metrics - In 2024, the net cash flow for the chemical industry is projected to shrink to nearly 20 billion, while total operating cash flow exceeds 250 billion [7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from 350 billion to below 300 billion [7] - By 2025 or 2026, the industry is anticipated to generate positive net free cash flow, marking a historic shift [7] Company-Specific Insights - Hualu Hengsheng's market value in 2024 is approximately 50.6 billion, with cash flow expected to rise from 5 billion in 2025 to 8.3 billion by 2027, suggesting attractive dividend yields even in a downturn [9] - The European chemical production capacity utilization is at a historical low of around 74%, indicating that high-cost production is unlikely to recover, which benefits Chinese companies with cost advantages [10][11] Future Trends - The chemical industry is expected to see a rebound in prosperity due to low inventory levels and attractive valuations [11] - The exit of high-cost European production will allow Chinese leaders to further consolidate and expand their market positions [11] - The polyurethane sector is currently at a cyclical low, but price recovery is anticipated due to supply constraints and demand growth [18][19] Challenges and Opportunities - The olefin industry faces challenges with low prices, but strict approval processes for new capacities may lead to a recovery if production contracts [16] - The refining sector is grappling with overcapacity and outdated facilities, but the anti-involution policy may help improve market conditions for major players [17] - The organic silicon market is at a historical low, but limited new capacity and potential overseas exits may lead to a recovery in the medium to long term [24][25][26] Sector-Specific Recommendations - Focus on companies in controlled capacity sectors like coal chemicals (e.g., Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy) and refining (e.g., Sinopec) for potential dividend yields [5][17] - Monitor the industrial silicon market for companies like Hesheng Silicon Industry, which may see profit doubling if prices recover [32] - In the soda ash sector, companies like Boyuan Chemical are worth watching as they navigate a challenging market [33] Conclusion - The chemical industry is poised for a potential recovery driven by policy changes, strong cash flows from leading companies, and a favorable global economic backdrop. Investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and those positioned to benefit from supply-side constraints and market shifts.