经济低迷增长
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东南亚制造:泰国如何走出困境
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-12-18 12:49
Economic Overview - Thailand's GDP growth has been highly volatile, with an average annual growth rate of 8.2% from 1960-1970, but slowing to 2.5% by 2024, below the global average of 2.9%[6][7]. - Thailand's GDP was approximately $526.4 billion in 2024, down from a peak of around $540 billion in 2019, and its global GDP share has decreased to about 0.47%[7][12]. Economic Drivers - The economy is primarily driven by manufacturing and tourism, with the service sector contributing nearly 60% to GDP and tourism accounting for about 20%[14][29]. - Manufacturing, particularly in automotive and electronics, remains a key sector, with Thailand being the largest automotive producer and exporter in Southeast Asia[24][18]. Challenges and Opportunities - Thailand's economy is facing stagnation, with a reliance on low-value manufacturing and tourism, leading to a need for industrial upgrades[35][38]. - The tourism sector has not fully recovered post-pandemic, with visitor numbers at 290 million in 2025, down 17.8% from 2019 levels[38][39]. Policy Responses - The Thai government has introduced various policies to stimulate tourism and manufacturing, including tax incentives and promotional campaigns aimed at attracting international visitors[48][51]. - Efforts are being made to enhance the electric vehicle sector and promote high-tech investments, particularly from China, which has become a significant source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Thailand[60][63]. Trade Relations - Thailand's trade with China has significantly increased, with total trade volume rising from around $10 billion to approximately $13 billion in 2025[56][61]. - The U.S.-Thailand trade framework has been updated, with Thailand eliminating tariffs on 99% of U.S. goods, while the U.S. maintains a 19% tariff on Thai products[55][56].