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经济增长侧重质
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政府工作报告点评:经济增长侧重“质”,扩内需为首要任务
BOHAI SECURITIES· 2026-03-05 09:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the economic growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5%, reflecting a pragmatic adjustment in response to market expectations, with nearly 60% of provinces lowering their GDP growth targets for 2026 [1][2] - Fiscal spending is maintained at a considerable scale, with a deficit target consistent with the previous year at around 4%, indicating a commitment to sustaining spending intensity while optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditures [1][2] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with a focus on the reasonable recovery of prices, suggesting that the CPI target of 2% is not only a guide but also achievable, which will support nominal GDP growth [2][3] Group 2 - Expanding domestic demand remains a primary task, with adjustments in policy measures, including a reduction in the "old-for-new" consumption support from 300 billion to 250 billion, and a shift towards promoting service consumption as a new growth point [3][4] - The establishment of a 100 billion fiscal-financial collaborative fund aims to lower credit costs and risks, facilitating the release of domestic demand, although the overall support for domestic demand policies does not show significant expansion [4] - The urgency to cultivate new growth drivers is highlighted, with significant upgrades in traditional industries and new support for emerging sectors such as integrated circuits and biomedicine, indicating a focus on high-quality development [4][5] Group 3 - The report indicates a deepening of "anti-involution" governance, emphasizing measures against monopolistic and unfair competition, which will likely constrain price increases lacking supply-demand support [5] - In the capital market, there is a clear policy direction towards deepening comprehensive reforms in investment and financing, focusing on enhancing the mechanisms for long-term capital entry and improving investor protection [5]