Core Insights - The article discusses the paradoxical economic phenomena observed in Shenzhen and Shanghai, highlighting the disconnect between rising rents and increasing vacancy rates in commercial properties, as well as the contrasting performance of high-end and budget consumer sectors [1][8]. Group 1: Commercial Real Estate Trends - In Shenzhen, the vacancy rate for brand stores reached 18.7% in the first half of 2025, up 5.3 percentage points from the same period in 2024, while Shanghai's core areas reported a vacancy rate of 16.5% [2]. - Despite high vacancy rates, rental prices remain elevated, with Shenzhen's core areas maintaining rents between 800-1500 RMB per square meter, and Shanghai's rents even higher [2]. - Approximately 65% of property owners in both cities prefer to keep their properties vacant rather than significantly reduce rents, indicating a strong holding capacity among landlords [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Shifts - High-end dining and shopping have seen a decline, with high-end restaurant revenues dropping by 15.3% and foot traffic in upscale shopping centers down by 12.7% in the first half of 2025 [4]. - Conversely, budget dining options and street food have thrived, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards more affordable dining experiences [4]. - The increase in essential expenditures, such as housing and education, has led to a reduction in discretionary spending, with real disposable income growth in Shenzhen at 2.1% and 2.8% in Shanghai for the first quarter of 2025 [4]. Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - Shenzhen experienced a net outflow of 37,000 talents in the first half of 2025, with over 60% holding a bachelor's degree or higher, while Shanghai saw a net outflow of 25,000 [5]. - Despite the talent outflow, there is a simultaneous "labor shortage" in manufacturing and service sectors, with recruitment demand rising by 18.3% while job applications fell by 12.5% [5]. - The mismatch in labor supply and demand highlights structural issues, with high-skilled positions being oversupplied while basic labor roles remain unfilled due to low social recognition and high work intensity [6]. Group 4: Real Estate Market Observations - Both cities maintain high property prices, with average new home prices at 68,500 RMB per square meter in Shenzhen and 73,200 RMB in Shanghai, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.3% and 1.8% respectively [7]. - New home sales have significantly declined, with transaction volumes down by 35.7% in Shenzhen and 28.5% in Shanghai [7]. - The real estate market is characterized by a "volume shrinkage, price stability" phenomenon, as developers prefer to hold onto properties rather than reduce prices, supported by financial institutions' policies [7]. Group 5: Economic Structural Issues - The article identifies these phenomena as indicative of a transitional economic phase, where traditional high-investment growth models are becoming unsustainable, leading to structural contradictions in the economy [8]. - The persistent high property prices and low transaction volumes suggest a "bubble" in the real estate market, where asset values are increasingly detached from actual market demand [8]. - Consumer confidence remains low, with consumer confidence indices for Shenzhen and Shanghai at 92.5 and 94.8, respectively, indicating concerns about future income growth and economic prospects [8].