时间到了8月中下旬，今年的夏季也即将迎来尾声。 在2025年夏天，雪糕/冰淇淋类目表现如何？相比2024/2023年同期，展现出了什么样的变化与趋势？在本周，马上赢将为您带来雪糕/冰淇淋类目的专题研 究，共同观察这一类目在今夏的走势。为了更加聚焦夏日这一类目销售旺季的表现情况，我们选取了2025年5-7月为观察时间段，同比时间段为2024年、 2023年同期。 复盘数据均来自于马上赢品牌CT，马上赢MSY150均衡模型及马上赢全量门店模型，使用的模型在数据图中均有标注。马上赢品牌CT数据覆盖了全国县 级以上各等级城市（不含乡、镇、村），并深度覆盖全国核心城市群，业态覆盖包括大卖场、大超市、小超市、便利店、食杂店。目前，马上赢品牌CT 中的品牌超30万个，商品条码量超过1400万个，年订单数超过50亿笔。 从 2023 年观察期至 2025 年观察期的销售额、销售量指数来看，以 2023 年观察期的销售额、销售量基准指数100作为标尺，可以看到，2024 年观察期销 售额指数下降至 90.54，销售量指数降至 95.35；2025 年，销售额指数继续下探至 86.67，而销售量指数降至 94.18，虽然销量下滑 ...

每次提到消费这两个字，心里就沉甸甸的，今年大家的消费欲望肉眼可见地降了太多太多。 以前卖得很贵的榴莲，大家眼都不眨就买，以前商场里的高端饭馆人挤人，如今却没什么客人，说到底原因大家都清楚，就是收入少了，好多人 还没了工作。 兜兜转转 10 年，生活好像又回到了原点，唯一不同的是这十年耗光了大家太多精力，身体不再年轻，心态也没以前积极，甚至钱包里的钱还不如 十年前多。 说到这儿，我心里也挺沉重，满是迷茫，活着真难啊，这一切难道是因为我和大家不够努力吗？ 消 B& STS 记得 10 年前，我孤注一掷选择了杭漂，那时候大伙儿的来钱渠道都比较单一，基本就靠工资，钱不多却也过得自在。当时大家的工资普遍在 5000 到 10000 之间，杭州的房租对我们这些外来人来说是笔大开销，能占到薪资的一半，在这种情况下，手里的钱保证日常开销后就所剩无几， 大家花钱也都是慎重考虑后才买。 那时候刚毕业的我，帮家里人在一个卖打折鞋的店里卖鞋，每个月 3000 块钱，店在通州（此处按杭漂合理推测应为杭州周边区域，保留原文表 述）的一个村里，虽说有个门面，却跟摆摊差不多，没什么装修，没有空调，冬天也没有暖气，唯一的取暖设备就是个小太阳。 ...

消费降级的风刮了一年，从房价松动、车市价格战，到咖啡茶饮低价厮杀，大家都在等一场全民"薅羊 毛"的狂欢。可没想到，另一边却悄悄变了天：那些习惯了免费的东西，开始一个个收钱。更让人心慌的 是，这些小钱分散开看不算多，但攒起来，足够压得人喘不过气。 01 最离谱的，要数校园。 乐山一中学共享空调的新闻刷屏，教室开一小时9.9元，宿舍3.9元。有人家长算过账，一个夏天交的钱， 完全能买一台新空调。校方解释说"第三方投资，学校不管"，可真正尴尬的是：教室里总不能分成"交钱 区"和"不交钱区"。有的学生实在交不起，难道只能在门口听课？ 更魔幻的是，午休也成了收费项目。东莞某学校推出"趴桌午休200元/学期"，还分级收费，从趴桌到床位 一路涨价。听上去好像是"看护费"，可趴桌子打个盹，竟然也能算成服务。有人调侃："书费、学费都交 了，现在连眯一会儿也得额外交钱。" 高校也没闲着。四川工商学院图书馆把部分空间改成"付费自习室"，一间一年要六七百。对考研考公的学 生来说，这几乎成了刚需。过去抢座难，现在没得抢，只能掏钱。学习本该是公平的，可在收费的推力 下，机会被切得更细碎。 02 离开校园，公共场所也在偷偷"改造"。 高铁 ...

最终我们会发现，一个人只有一张嘴，一天最多只能吃四顿饭。 这就是供给端主动发起的低价。 我记得有一个口头禅，大意说的是你够狠；这形容一个人对自己足够狠，侧面含义也反映了他人比不上你。 而今天供给端主动发起的低价，就连消费者自己都自愧不如。 当这场商业战争开始逐步走向常态化的时候，数以亿计的普通人，无形之中被卷入这场由巨头主导的消费降级浪潮。 过去我们认为，消费降级是消费端发起的一种"选择性歧视"，歧视了那些价格过高的餐饮店。但今天，随着巨头催动的外卖补贴大战进入常态化，我们开始 发现，低价，也有可能由供给端主动发起。 这是什么意思呢？ 我记得我刚参加工作那几年，在外面吃一份火锅米线，其价格要比普通米线贵好几元，一份的价格是在十五元左右，而今天我随便打开一家外卖APP，在用 券之后，同样的火锅米线，一份价格不到10元钱。 我作为消费者我认为，我在外面吃饭，一份午餐价格上了20元，经常吃可能就有点遭不住，价格偏贵，所以一份午餐的价格在十五元上下，是我能够接受的 范围。 而今天，外卖平台主动向消费降级靠拢，一份午餐的价格只有几元钱，消费降级当供给端开始发力的时候，其价格比消费者预想的还要便宜。 当然，这个低价也不一 ...

旅游业的烟花有多绚烂，住宿餐饮业的锅底就有多冰凉。北京上半年游客量1.8亿人次同比增7.1%，旅 游花费3381亿同比增8.8%；上海入境游人数暴涨37.7%，韩国游客直接翻倍。但转头一看，北京住宿业 利润暴跌92.9%，上海餐饮业利润增速9.5倍竟是"丧事喜办"的障眼法。游客来了，钱花了，酒店餐馆却 集体哭穷——这魔幻现实，到底是哪里出了岔子？ 一、冰火两重天：旅游业狂欢背后的"利润绞杀" 当北京故宫门票预约秒光、上海外滩人挤人时，谁也想不到五星级酒店经理正躲在办公室算成本。北京 市文旅局的数据像打了鸡血：游客量1.8亿，旅游收入3381亿，数字漂亮得能当壁纸。但翻开住宿餐饮 业的账本，5135家限额以上企业总利润同比暴跌67%，其中住宿业更惨，1613家企业利润总额仅5980万 元，同比降幅92.9%——这意味着去年赚100块，今年只赚7块1，连给员工发工资都得倒贴。 上海更会玩"数字游戏"。二季度住宿餐饮企业利润同比暴涨9.5倍，乍一看以为老板们集体财富自由， 结果是一季度爆亏的窟窿没填上，只挑好看的数据喊口号。合并一季度后，上海住宿餐饮营收照样下跌 4.3%，利润增速从"9.5倍"秒变"勉强止血"。这 ...

洞见 （ DJ00123987 ） —— 不一样的观点，不一样的故事， 3000 万人订阅的微信大号。点击标题下 蓝字 " 洞见 " 关注，我们将为您提供有价值、有意思的延伸阅读。 作者： yy 来源： 每晚一卷书 （ID: JYXZ89896） 富有与破产只有一步之遥。 ♬ 点上方播放按钮可收听洞见主播亚楠 朗读音频 前些天，微信突然收到一条拼多多"砍一刀"的消息。 我当即回了三个问号。 属实被震惊到了。 发消息的人，家里还算富有。 还记得以前，上千的衣服、上万的相机，他买起来眼睛都不带眨的。 玩个游戏，更是随随便便就充值大几千。 真可谓是挥金如土。 正当我费解之际，朋友发来一条长语音解释。 原来是家里的生意不好做了，得把钱留在刀刃上，一些不紧要的物件该省就省。 就连家里很多用不上的东西，他都挂闲鱼出手了。 朋友的变化，让我想起博主 @问苍天 说的一句话： "近些年，聪明人都在消费降级，计划变穷。吃简单的，穿便宜的，把现金省下来，来抵抗风 险。" 未来几年，主动给生活降级，才是突围之法。 01 消费降级 无论是主动还是被动，一旦从冲动消费里跳了出来，就会更开始用局外人的姿态对自己进行审 视。 不该买的东西不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The retail landscape in China is undergoing a profound transformation, with traditional shopping malls facing significant decline while new commercial formats and county-level shopping centers are emerging and thriving [30]. Group 1: Decline of Traditional Malls - Many shopping malls across China are experiencing closures, with at least 38 malls shutting down in 2024, 76% of which had been operating for over 10 years [11]. - Major cities like Shanghai and Beijing are witnessing negative growth in retail sales, with Shanghai's social retail sales declining by 3.1% and Beijing by 2.7% in 2024 [12]. - High-end malls, such as Beijing SKP, have seen significant drops in sales, with a 17% decrease reported in 2024 [13]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Decline - Consumer downgrade is a primary factor, as middle and lower-income groups face reduced income and spending power, leading to a decline in high-end mall patronage [12][13]. - The rise of new retail formats, particularly instant retail, is capturing market share from traditional malls, with the instant retail market projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [14]. - Internal issues such as lack of differentiation and oversaturation of similar brands in malls contribute to their declining attractiveness [16]. Group 3: Emergence of New Commercial Formats - Despite the decline of traditional malls, some shopping centers are thriving by innovating and adapting to consumer preferences, with over 73% of shopping centers reporting sales growth in 2024 [22]. - Unique shopping experiences, such as those offered by high-end centers like Chengdu's Taikoo Li and Beijing's SKP, are attracting consumers [22]. - The rise of independent supermarkets and convenience stores is also reshaping the retail landscape, with convenience store sales increasing by 4.7% in 2024 [24]. Group 4: Growth of County-Level Commercial Centers - In contrast to urban malls, county-level commercial centers are proliferating, driven by rising consumer demand and urbanization, with retail sales in rural areas growing faster than in urban centers [28][29]. - Developers are increasingly investing in county-level commercial projects, recognizing the potential for growth in these markets [29]. - The shift in consumer behavior towards experiential and brand-oriented shopping is evident in the success of county-level malls that cater to these needs [30].

"目前整个白酒行业都在深度调整，所以白酒业务营业额是略有下降的状态。但我们白酒业务的毛利率基本上处于 持平的状态，在65%以上水平。"华润啤酒相关负责人在财报沟通会上表示。 自2019年收购 山东景芝白酒，正式进军白酒行业以来， 华润啤酒在白酒业务上已累计投入超百亿，其 在白酒市 场中的发展也备受关注。 图源：华润啤酒财报 导语 ：啤酒业务飙涨，白酒业务却掉链子！华润啤酒上半年"冰火两重天。 2025年上半年，华润啤酒(0291.HK)的啤酒与白酒业务呈现出"冰火两重天"的局面。 华润啤酒2025年上半年财报显示，公司综合营业额为239.42亿元，同比增长0.8%；股东应占溢利为57.89亿元， 同比大幅增长23%，创历史新高。 其中，啤酒业务表现亮眼，营业额为231.61亿元，同比增长2.6%，毛利率同比上升 2.5 个百分点至 48.3%，喜 力、老雪、红爵等销量涨幅较大 ；而白酒业务营业额约为7.81亿元，相比上年同期缩水近4 亿元，跌幅超三成， 与啤酒业务业绩相比，反差较大。 "摘要"下跌超百元，白酒业绩"拖后腿" 相比啤酒业务的增长，被寄予厚望的白酒板块，在今年上半年表现却不尽如人意。 财报显示，面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market has seen significant growth in the first half of 2025, with Geely Automotive becoming the second-largest in new energy sales and Leap Motor achieving the highest sales among new forces. Both companies have surpassed one million units in cumulative sales, indicating a demand increase of approximately 100 GWh for battery supply [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The growth in the EV market is largely driven by government policies promoting vehicle trade-ins, alongside a trend of "consumption downgrade," where lower-priced models are becoming the main sales drivers [2]. - Geely's new energy brand "Galaxy" has achieved over one million cumulative sales within 24 months, with a remarkable 232% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025, selling 548,000 units [2]. - Leap Motor delivered over 220,000 units in the first half of 2025, surpassing competitors like Ideal and Xiaopeng, and has raised its delivery guidance for 2025 to between 580,000 and 650,000 units [2]. Group 2: Battery Supply Challenges - Geely is facing a battery supply shortage due to its rapid expansion, prompting the company to seek additional capacity from external suppliers [3]. - The establishment of the independent "Jiyao Tongxing" battery group aims to consolidate Geely's battery operations and enhance efficiency, with a target of achieving 70 GWh capacity by 2027 [3]. - Geely plans to adopt a "self-supply + external procurement" strategy, with an expected increase in self-supplied battery cells to 30% over the next two years [3]. Group 3: Leap Motor's Strategy - Leap Motor achieved a record gross margin of 14.1% in the first half of 2025, attributed to economies of scale and cost control [4]. - The company's strategy focuses on "full self-research" and decentralized procurement, allowing it to save costs and enhance bargaining power by sourcing battery cells from multiple suppliers [5]. - Leap Motor has begun supplying self-developed battery packs to over five new energy commercial vehicle clients, indicating a shift towards monetizing its battery technology [5]. Group 4: Opportunities for Battery Suppliers - The anticipated demand for 100 GWh of batteries presents both opportunities and challenges for battery suppliers, with CATL remaining a preferred choice but not the only option [5]. - Suppliers need to demonstrate stable performance, compatibility with vehicle models, and sufficient capacity to meet delivery timelines to secure orders [6].

Core Insights - The overall growth momentum in the restaurant industry is weak, with a reported cumulative restaurant revenue growth of 4.3% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, and a mere 0.9% growth in June, indicating a decline in growth rates [1] - The new growth engines for the industry are the lower-tier markets and the rapidly growing takeaway business, as consumer preferences shift towards value for money and health-conscious options [1][2] - Domestic restaurant leaders are transitioning from scale expansion to efficiency improvement, focusing on optimizing single-store operations and enhancing supply chain value [3] Industry Trends - Trend 1: The industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with lower-tier markets and online services emerging as new growth engines. The June data shows a negative growth of 0.4% for large-scale restaurants, highlighting the overall weak growth momentum [1] - Trend 2: Health-conscious dining and value for money are becoming key consumer trends, necessitating adjustments in restaurant branding and operations to meet the evolving demands of consumers [1] Lessons from Japan - The experience of Japanese restaurant leaders post-bubble economy shows that even in a declining market, strong companies can expand and provide substantial returns to investors. The focus on cost-effectiveness and supply chain efficiency is crucial for success [2] Domestic Leaders' Strategies - Domestic restaurant leaders are adopting strategies similar to those of Japanese counterparts, such as improving operational efficiency and enhancing supply chain management. However, they also benefit from the potential of the takeaway market and the strong consumption vitality in lower-tier cities [3] Investment Value of Leading Brands - Companies like Xiaocaiyuan, Green Tea Group, Guoquan, and Jiumaojiu are expected to show significant profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 7.7 billion, 5.1 billion, 4.3 billion, and a focus on same-store revenue growth, respectively [4][5] - The investment outlook for these brands is positive, as they are positioned for healthy growth through operational innovation and market expansion [5]