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6月经济数据供需分化显著
Century Securities· 2025-07-21 01:11
Economic Overview - June export data exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, surpassing the forecast of 3.6% and the previous value of 4.8%[10] - June financial data also outperformed expectations, with new loans of 22,400 billion CNY against an expected 18,447 billion CNY, and total social financing of 41,993 billion CNY compared to the forecast of 37,051 billion CNY[15] - The GDP growth for the first half of the year reached 5.3%, indicating that the annual target is likely to be met[9] Market Dynamics - The market saw a significant increase in trading volume, with an average transaction amount of 15,463 billion CNY, up by 501 billion CNY from the previous week[9] - The bond market experienced a slight decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.3 basis points, reflecting a mixed sentiment in the market[9] - The central bank's liquidity operations included a net injection of 12,011 billion CNY, which helped alleviate liquidity concerns[9] Sector Performance - Industrial value-added growth in June was 6.8%, exceeding the expected 5.5% and the previous value of 5.8%[24] - Fixed asset investment for the first half of the year grew by 2.8%, below the expected 3.7%[24] - Real estate development investment in June saw a decline of 11.2%, with new housing sales down by 3.5%[24] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales in June grew by 4.8%, lower than the expected 5.6% and the previous value of 6.4%[24] - The consumer market showed signs of weakness, with significant declines in certain categories such as home appliances and communication equipment[27]