华泰证券研报指出，当前海内外事件对港股的影响更多在情绪冲击而非基本面逆转，因此依然需要密切 关注情绪和仓位的消化程度。近一月彭博一致盈利预期（25/26均值）上修相对较多的科技硬件、股价 回调较为充分的医药、互联网龙头以及此前盈利预期持续下修但近期营收预期企稳的高ROE大众消费依 然有配置的机会。（资料来源：《港股策略：短期情绪降温，中期配置渐起》-2025/10/20） 经过前一交易日的大幅回调后，2025年10月20日早盘，港股整体高开呈现修复态势，其中港股科技板块 涨幅居前表现活跃。Wind数据显示，跟踪恒生科技指数中的人气产品恒生科技ETF（513130）截至14： 14分成交额达58.34亿元，换手率达14.39%。 消息面上，北京时间2025年10月18日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理与美方牵头人、美国财政部 长和贸易代表举行视频通话，双方围绕落实今年以来两国元首历次通话重要共识，就双边经贸关系中的 重要问题进行了坦诚、深入、建设性的交流，同意尽快举行新一轮中美经贸磋商。另外美国总统在10月 17日播出的一段福克斯商业频道专访中罕见松口，承认以高关税威胁中国的策略不可持续，并可能会冲 击美国经 ...

Economic Overview - June export data exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, surpassing the forecast of 3.6% and the previous value of 4.8%[10] - June financial data also outperformed expectations, with new loans of 22,400 billion CNY against an expected 18,447 billion CNY, and total social financing of 41,993 billion CNY compared to the forecast of 37,051 billion CNY[15] - The GDP growth for the first half of the year reached 5.3%, indicating that the annual target is likely to be met[9] Market Dynamics - The market saw a significant increase in trading volume, with an average transaction amount of 15,463 billion CNY, up by 501 billion CNY from the previous week[9] - The bond market experienced a slight decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.3 basis points, reflecting a mixed sentiment in the market[9] - The central bank's liquidity operations included a net injection of 12,011 billion CNY, which helped alleviate liquidity concerns[9] Sector Performance - Industrial value-added growth in June was 6.8%, exceeding the expected 5.5% and the previous value of 5.8%[24] - Fixed asset investment for the first half of the year grew by 2.8%, below the expected 3.7%[24] - Real estate development investment in June saw a decline of 11.2%, with new housing sales down by 3.5%[24] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales in June grew by 4.8%, lower than the expected 5.6% and the previous value of 6.4%[24] - The consumer market showed signs of weakness, with significant declines in certain categories such as home appliances and communication equipment[27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the long-standing trade friction between China and the U.S. may ease, leading to potential benefits for the Chinese industry [10][11] - It highlights that Chinese manufacturers are becoming indispensable in the international supply chain, particularly in the IoT module market and AI hardware supply [11] - The report anticipates adjustments in AI chip export restrictions, which could alter the competitive landscape in the AI sector [12][13] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - **U.S.-China Trade Relations**: The report indicates that U.S.-China negotiations may begin, with expectations of tariff reductions, particularly on the current 145% tariffs imposed by the U.S. [10] - **Chinese Industry Benefits**: It notes that Chinese firms dominate the global IoT module market, holding over 50% market share among the top three manufacturers [11] - **AI Chip Export Regulations**: The report discusses potential relaxations in AI chip export restrictions by the U.S., which could significantly impact American companies, especially in the context of the growing Chinese AI market projected to reach $50 billion [12][13] Industry News - **Low-altitude Economy in Wuhan**: Wuhan plans to establish 1,000 low-altitude takeoff and landing sites, aiming for a 20% increase in the low-altitude economy [14] - **Alibaba's ZeroSearch**: Alibaba has open-sourced the ZeroSearch model, significantly reducing costs by over 87% while enhancing search capabilities [15] - **Starlink in India**: Starlink has received approval to provide satellite communication services in India, which may accelerate satellite internet development globally [16] - **Shenzhen's 5G Network**: Shenzhen is constructing a comprehensive "5G + millimeter wave + satellite" network, aiming for full coverage and improved infrastructure [17] Weekly Review and Focus - **Market Performance**: The telecommunications sector saw a slight increase of 0.02%, underperforming compared to major indices, with notable gains in optical modules and low-altitude economy sectors [18][21] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on companies involved in the overseas supply chain, such as Yiyuan Communication and Industrial Fulian, as well as long-term attention on major telecom operators and infrastructure providers [22]