Government Shutdown Duration and Impact - As of November 9, the U.S. government has been shut down for 40 days, marking a historical record[2] - The shutdown is primarily due to political polarization, with both parties believing it benefits them[2] - It is expected that the government will remain closed for at least another 1-2 weeks, likely reopening before Thanksgiving (November 27)[3] Economic and Employment Effects - The shutdown has resulted in at least 670,000 federal employees being furloughed and approximately 730,000 working without pay[10] - If the shutdown continues until December 1, the total unpaid wages could reach approximately $21 billion[10] - The impact on GDP growth for Q4 2025 is projected to be a reduction of over 1 percentage point, with a rebound expected in Q1 2026[5] Data Release Delays - Key economic data for September and October, including non-farm payrolls and CPI, have been delayed due to the shutdown[4] - If the government reopens in 1-2 weeks, some data may be released shortly thereafter, but the timing remains uncertain[19] - October non-farm payroll data may be published alongside November data in early December[20] Market and Policy Implications - The shutdown has led to a rise in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance by $62.7 billion, which may tighten liquidity marginally[36] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates once in December 2025 and potentially 1-2 more times in June 2026[37] - The reopening of the government is anticipated to alleviate some liquidity pressures in the market[36]