1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend, with the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead futures being active but falling 0.41%. After digesting the Fed's interest - rate cut, Shanghai lead generally showed a volatile downward trend [7]. - On the supply side, some primary lead smelting enterprises in certain regions entered the centralized maintenance stage, causing the primary lead output to continue to decline. The raw material market is in a tight - balance state, with lead concentrate processing fees continuously decreasing and mostly sold on a pre - sale basis, increasing the cost for smelters to obtain raw materials and further restricting primary lead output. For recycled lead, affected by environmental inspections and the decline in waste battery recycling efficiency, the release of recycled lead production capacity has slowed down. There is not much inventory of waste batteries in the market, and the arrival of goods at smelters is not good. Enterprises mainly focus on fulfilling long - term orders, and the overall operating rate remains low, continuously restricting recycled lead output. However, with the repair of production profits and the increase in the quantity of imported raw materials, some enterprises have the expectation of resuming production, but it is expected to be in early October, having limited impact on next week's supply. Overall, lead supply shows a stable and rising trend [7]. - On the demand side, lead - acid batteries, as the main consumption area of lead, have relatively stable demand for automobile starting batteries. Although the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season is gradually warming up, in reality, when prices rise, spot transactions are average, and downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state. After large battery enterprises' procurement gradually ended this week before the National Day, small and medium - sized factories are mostly cautious and have low willingness to receive goods. However, the energy - storage demand in emerging fields shows a good trend, making up for the shortage of demand in traditional fields to a certain extent. But overall, the overall demand has not shown an obvious explosive growth and is still in a slow recovery stage [7]. - From the domestic and foreign inventory data, both foreign and domestic lead inventories are falling, and the number of warehouse receipts is also decreasing. The overall inventory decline indicates that demand has driven inventory depletion to a certain extent. The social inventory of domestic lead ingots has declined recently, providing some support for lead prices. However, as the pre - National Day inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises comes to an end, if demand cannot continue to follow up, the subsequent changes in inventory still need to be concerned [7]. - Next week, the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. On the supply side, the output of primary lead and recycled lead is difficult to rebound significantly in the short term, providing some support for prices. On the demand side, although the overall performance is average, it will not decline significantly under the background of "Golden September and Silver October" and the drive of emerging energy - storage field demand. The decline in inventory also provides some bottom - line support for prices. It is recommended to build long positions on dips for lead prices [7]. - In terms of operation, it is recommended that the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead mainly fluctuates upward, with a fluctuation range of 16,800 - 17,300 and a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend, and the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead futures fell 0.41%. After digesting the Fed's interest - rate cut, Shanghai lead generally showed a volatile downward trend [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is showing a stable and rising trend, while demand is in a slow recovery stage. The overall inventory decline provides some support for lead prices. Next week, the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead mainly fluctuates upward, with a fluctuation range of 16,800 - 17,300 and a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Comparison**: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead decreased slightly compared with last week, the foreign futures price remained flat, and the ratio increased. As of September 25, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was reported at $1,938 per ton, and the futures closing price (active contract) of lead was reported at 17,060 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was reported at 8.71 [9][13]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium and discount strengthened, and the foreign premium and discount strengthened. As of September 25, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was reported at - 110 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was reported at - 36.8 dollars per ton [15][17]. - **Inventory**: Both foreign and domestic lead inventories are falling, and the number of warehouse receipts is also decreasing. As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of lead was reported at 4.22 tons, a decrease of 17,400 tons; the total inventory of LME lead was reported at 219,550 tons, a decrease of 750 tons. The number of warehouse receipts for Shanghai lead was reported at 35,584 tons, a decrease of 13,791 tons [32][36]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Supply - side - **Primary Lead**: As of September 18, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major production areas was 80.56%, a decrease of 0.96% compared with last week; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,900 tons, a decrease of 0 tons compared with last week [23]. - **Recycled Lead**: As of September 18, 2025, the domestic output of recycled lead in major production areas was reported at 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the average utilization rate of recycled lead production capacity was reported at 43.63%, a month - on - month increase of 8.78%. Near the Double Festival, the recycling of scrapped batteries increased, and the output increased slightly [27][30]. - **Trade**: In August 2025, the export volume of refined lead was 1,795 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43.62% and a year - on - year increase of 408.31%. The import volume of refined lead was 3,417 tons. The import volume of lead alloy was 12,784 tons. The import volume of lead concentrate was about 122,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 28.3%. The total import volume of lead ingots was 13,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,940 tons, an increase of 106.70%; a year - on - year decrease of 9,730 tons, a decrease of 41.98%. Among them, the import volume of refined lead was 3,420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,600 tons, an increase of 317.07%; a year - on - year decrease of 10,600 tons, a decrease of 75.63%. The import volume of crude lead was 10,030 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,340 tons, an increase of 76.27%; a year - on - year increase of 1,090 tons, an increase of 12.27% [40]. Demand - side - **Processing Fees**: As of September 18, 2025, the national average processing price of lead concentrate was reported at 370 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the processing fee TC for imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was reported at - 90 dollars per thousand tons. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee declined, and the imported ore processing fee remained flat, which was generally negative for domestic production [43][45]. - **Automobile Market**: In August 2025, the overall automobile sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.18% and a year - on - year increase of 16.4%. From January to August, the cumulative automobile sales reached 21.128 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.6%. The sales of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and new - energy vehicles all showed growth trends. The new - energy vehicle sales in August were 1.395 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.54% and a year - on - year increase of 27%. The new - energy vehicle sales from January to August were 9.62 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.8% of the total new automobile sales in August and 45.5% from January to August. The growth of automobile production and sales is accelerating, and the process of lithium replacing lead is accelerating, leading to a decline in lead demand [47][50]. - **Battery Market**: As of September 25, 2025, the average price of waste lead electric storage 48V/20AH in Zhejiang was reported at 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) in Shanghai was 19,920 yuan per ton. The battery price remained flat, and the price of lead - antimony alloy decreased [52][55].

Inflation Overview - August CPI in the U.S. rose to 0.38%, exceeding the expected 0.3%[1] - Core CPI remained stable at 0.35%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1%[1] - Food and energy prices contributed significantly to the CPI increase, with energy prices rebounding to 0.69% from -1.07% in July[6] Tariff Impact - The transmission of tariffs to prices remains manageable, with core goods inflation driven mainly by new and used car prices[2] - Tariff-sensitive categories showed moderate growth, indicating limited inflationary pressure from tariffs[2] - The effective tariff rate increase was less than anticipated, with companies absorbing part of the tariff costs[2] Employment Market Signals - Initial jobless claims rose unexpectedly, signaling a slowdown in the labor market[1] - Excluding Texas, initial claims align with historical seasonal patterns, suggesting a gradual weakening rather than a sharp decline[2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September are now fully priced in, with a 13% chance for a 50 basis point cut[1] Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury yields fell by 5 basis points, with 2-year and 10-year yields at 3.50% and 4.00%, respectively[1] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.4% to 97.6, while U.S. stock markets saw an uptick[1] Risk Factors - Potential risks include higher-than-expected tariff transmission to inflation and a faster-than-expected decline in the U.S. labor market[3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges in the U.S. labor market, highlighting a potential rise in unemployment rates and the difficulties faced by the private sector in job recovery, particularly in light of recent economic data and policy implications [2][6][15]. Employment Trends - The initial response rate for the August non-farm survey showed a significant rebound, but the trend of employment deterioration has not ceased, with private sector job additions contracting for four consecutive months [4][6]. - The total non-farm job additions from May to August amounted to only 107,000, which is below the average monthly growth of 127,000 in the first four months of 2025 [4][6]. - The unemployment rate increased from 4.248% to 4.324%, primarily due to a slight recovery in labor force participation [6][11]. Economic Sensitivity - The U6 unemployment rate and the unemployment rate for African Americans have both seen significant increases, indicating underlying vulnerabilities in the labor market [11][16]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly sensitive to tariffs, has experienced a decline in working hours since peaking in May and June, suggesting further potential job losses [9][11]. Federal Reserve Implications - The Federal Reserve's recent labor data has undergone significant revisions, with a cumulative downward adjustment of 279,000 in non-farm job additions and a 0.21% increase in the unemployment rate since the July FOMC meeting [6][15]. - There is speculation about whether the Fed may need to adjust its interest rate strategy in response to the deteriorating labor market conditions, especially after Powell's dovish stance [6][15]. Structural Issues - The article emphasizes that even if the U.S. economy avoids recession, young individuals and undocumented immigrants are already experiencing economic hardships, highlighting a structural issue in the labor market [16][15]. - The combination of declining full-time employment, rising part-time employment, and increasing permanent unemployment poses a greater risk for future unemployment rate increases [7][11].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.05」 沪铅市场周报 联储降息有望来临，沪铅需求有望增加 业 务 咨 询 研究员 添 加 客 服 :黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 u 行情回顾：本周沪铅期货呈现震荡态势。沪期铅主力合约2510表现活跃，本周沪铅2510上涨0.12%。 整体来说本周沪铅在供给下行，需求平稳的表现下，小幅上行为主。 u 行情展望：从供应端来看，从已有的企业生产计划来看，原生铅冶炼厂暂无大规模扩产或减产计划， 预计产量将维持相对稳定状态。不过，需要关注铅精矿供应情况，当前铅精矿供应偏紧的局面尚未 得到明显改善，这可能在一定程度上限制原生铅产量的提升。再生铅供应区域性差异显著。废电瓶 原料端供应紧张，冶炼厂因成本压力以及对后市价格的不确定性，信心不足。例如安徽地区开展污 水排查工作，对当地再生铅生产产生边际影响，部分企业生产受限，使得再生铅供应的不确定性增 加。从当前废电瓶市场来看，由于处于报废淡季，市场存量货源不多，炼厂到货情况不佳 ...

Group 1 - The core concern is whether US tech stocks will decline, which may impact domestic AI sectors [1][2] - There is a rising short-term uncertainty regarding US stock adjustments, influenced by seasonal patterns and negative AI commentary [2][3] - The potential for fluctuating interest rate policies by the Federal Reserve could disrupt market stability, particularly with upcoming economic data releases [3][4] Group 2 - The recent increase in global long-term bond yields indicates underlying risks in the market, despite previous optimism regarding recovery post-tariff adjustments [4] - The possibility of RMB appreciation could provide liquidity support for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by stable export growth and trade surpluses [5] - Significant capital inflow is anticipated, with an estimated 300 billion RMB in compensatory settlement from exports in the first half of the year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial results for H1 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, driven by rising gold prices and effective cost management [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.596 billion yuan, up 48.43% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue reached 4.924 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.95% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.95%. The net profit for Q2 was 902 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 57.67% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 29.99% [1]. Gold Price Impact - The average gold price in H1 2025 increased by 38.9% year-on-year to 724.29 yuan per gram, positively impacting the company's revenue from gold sales, which rose by 29.85% [1]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 79.15%, an increase of 7.26 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the rise in gold prices and effective cost management [1]. International Expansion - The company plans to issue shares overseas (H shares) and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy, optimize capital structure, and improve governance [2]. - Successful listing of H shares is expected to create new opportunities for mergers and acquisitions, leading to long-term growth in gold production [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 3.294 billion yuan, 3.764 billion yuan, and 5.112 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.57% [3]. - The target price has been adjusted to 21.31 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17.91 for 2025 [3].

Core Viewpoint - Current data indicates that the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation remains relatively mild, with core CPI in May-June 2025 falling short of expectations, showing a month-on-month increase of only 0.1-0.2% [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The limited impact of tariffs on inflation is attributed to several factors: significant inventory accumulation by companies, a temporary buffer against rising tariffs, a weighted import tariff rate lower than theoretical values, weak corporate demand, and low service inflation [1] - It is expected that tariffs will moderately increase U.S. core inflation in the third quarter, although there is market disagreement regarding the magnitude and duration of this inflation rise [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is likely to restart the interest rate cut cycle in September, despite anticipated inflation recovery in the third quarter having limited constraints on the Fed's rate cuts in 2025 [1] - Short-term inflation recovery is expected to have a limited impact on U.S. Treasury yields, although the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" Act may still exert pressure on these yields [1] Group 3: Broader Economic Considerations - Attention should be paid to potential buffers created by financial deregulation, expansion of stablecoins, and changes in U.S. Treasury issuance structure, which may influence the economic landscape [1] - The long-term outlook suggests that the U.S. dollar may face depreciation pressure [1]

Group 1 - Global stock markets mostly rose last week, with Vietnam's VN30 index leading the gains among major markets. The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 increased by 1.4%, 3.9%, and 2.4% respectively. European markets also saw gains, with Germany's DAX up 3.2%, France's CAC40 up 2.6%, and the UK's FTSE 100 slightly up by 0.3%. In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Tech index rose by 1.2%, while India's SENSEX30 index fell by 0.9% [1][2][3] - The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts is contingent on the upcoming CPI data. Internal divisions within the Fed were highlighted during the July FOMC meeting, with some members advocating for multiple rate cuts this year. The CPI data to be released this week will significantly influence the Fed's future monetary policy considerations [1][2][3] Group 2 - The geopolitical landscape is entering a critical phase with significant tariff negotiations. A meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders is scheduled for August 15, where territorial concessions may be discussed. However, the vast differences in demands between Russia and Ukraine create uncertainty regarding the outcomes of this meeting, which could lead to increased economic sanctions from the U.S. if negotiations fail [2][3] - Market volatility is expected to increase due to upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments. Investors are advised to focus on sustainable investment opportunities rather than speculative trades based on event-driven volatility [2][3] Group 3 - The strategy for the year includes anticipating the Fed's interest rate cuts, which are expected to occur 2-3 times. In the bond market, short-term bonds are favorable, but long-term bonds may offer greater advantages due to duration and declining inflation. In the equity market, the XBI index is highlighted for its resilience among growth sectors, particularly as previous pressures from government actions are easing [3]

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations, and the year-on-year core CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, slightly above the expected 3.0%[2][4] - The overall CPI month-on-month decreased from 0.29% in June to 0.2% in July, matching expectations, while the year-on-year CPI remained stable at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%[2][4] Tariff Impact on Inflation - The report indicates that tariffs have a moderate impact on inflation, with companies passing only 50-60% of tariff pressures onto consumers, preventing a significant rise in inflation[4][6] - Despite an increase in tariffs in August, the overall core inflation is expected to rise moderately due to weak consumer demand and a softening job market, maintaining the forecast for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September[4][6] Market Reactions - As of the report's timing, the market anticipates a 96% probability of a rate cut in September, with the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations rising by 4 basis points to 61 basis points[2][4] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.3% to 98.3, while U.S. stocks opened higher following the inflation data release[2][4] Core Services and Goods Analysis - The month-on-month increase in core CPI was primarily driven by a rebound in core services, particularly volatile airline ticket prices, while core goods inflation remained moderate[2][6] - Core services excluding housing saw a month-on-month increase of 0.55%, driven by transportation and medical services, indicating a warming trend in service prices[6][10] Specific Item Trends - In July, the month-on-month growth of core goods was only 0.21%, with significant slowdowns in price increases for clothing, furniture, and entertainment goods, reflecting the limited transmission of tariff impacts[6][7] - Energy prices saw a notable decline, with the month-on-month energy component dropping from 0.95% in June to -1.07% in July, contributing to an overall CPI decrease of approximately 0.13 percentage points[6][7]

Inflation Data Summary - The core CPI in the US for July increased by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations, while the year-on-year rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, slightly above the expected 3.0%[1] - The overall CPI month-on-month decreased from 0.29% in June to 0.2% in July, matching expectations, while the year-on-year rate remained stable at 2.7%, slightly below the anticipated 2.8%[1] - The market's confidence in a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has strengthened, with the probability of a rate cut rising to 96%[1] Tariff Impact on Inflation - The report indicates that tariffs have a mild impact on inflation, with companies passing on only 50-60% of tariff costs to consumers due to weak demand perceptions[2] - Despite an increase in tariffs in August, the overall core inflation is expected to rise only moderately, constrained by weak corporate demand and a softening job market[2] - Core service inflation showed a rebound, particularly in volatile categories like airfare, while core goods inflation remained subdued, with some categories experiencing a slowdown in price growth[1][2] Specific Inflation Components - Core services increased by 0.36% month-on-month, driven by transportation and medical services, while core goods rose by only 0.21%[4] - Energy prices fell significantly, with the energy component decreasing by -1.07% month-on-month, contributing to a decline in overall CPI growth by approximately 0.13 percentage points[4] - Food prices also saw a notable slowdown, decreasing by 0.28 percentage points to a growth rate of 0.05%[4]