Group 1 - Global stock markets mostly rose last week, with Vietnam's VN30 index leading the gains among major markets. The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 increased by 1.4%, 3.9%, and 2.4% respectively. European markets also saw gains, with Germany's DAX up 3.2%, France's CAC40 up 2.6%, and the UK's FTSE 100 slightly up by 0.3%. In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Tech index rose by 1.2%, while India's SENSEX30 index fell by 0.9% [1][2][3] - The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts is contingent on the upcoming CPI data. Internal divisions within the Fed were highlighted during the July FOMC meeting, with some members advocating for multiple rate cuts this year. The CPI data to be released this week will significantly influence the Fed's future monetary policy considerations [1][2][3] Group 2 - The geopolitical landscape is entering a critical phase with significant tariff negotiations. A meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders is scheduled for August 15, where territorial concessions may be discussed. However, the vast differences in demands between Russia and Ukraine create uncertainty regarding the outcomes of this meeting, which could lead to increased economic sanctions from the U.S. if negotiations fail [2][3] - Market volatility is expected to increase due to upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments. Investors are advised to focus on sustainable investment opportunities rather than speculative trades based on event-driven volatility [2][3] Group 3 - The strategy for the year includes anticipating the Fed's interest rate cuts, which are expected to occur 2-3 times. In the bond market, short-term bonds are favorable, but long-term bonds may offer greater advantages due to duration and declining inflation. In the equity market, the XBI index is highlighted for its resilience among growth sectors, particularly as previous pressures from government actions are easing [3]

证券研究报告 宏观 美国 7月 CPI:关税对通胀传导较为 | H 15 | | --- | | 5 r | | 1 六 | | 美 5 1 2 1 | 2025年8月13日|中国内地 动态点评 美国 7月核心 CPI 环比上行至 0.3%,符合市场预期,缓解了市场对通胀明 显回升的担忧:核心 CPI 同比上行 0.2pp 至 3.1%,略高于预期的 3.0%; CP| 环比从 6 月的 0.29%回落至 0.2%,符合预期,同比持平于 2.7%,喀低 于预期的 2.8%。7月核心通胀环比仅温和上升,核心通胀中受关税影响较 大的核心商品通胀压力可控,进一步增强了市场对于联储 9月降息的信心: 截至北京时间 22点 20分,联储降息预期上行 4bp 至 61bp,9月降息概率 升至 96%. 2v、10v 美债收益率分别下行 2bp、上行 2bp 至 3.75%、4.31%. 美元指数下跌 0.3%至 98.3,美股高开后上涨。 从分项来看. 7月核心 CPI 环比回升主要来自核心服务的反弹,特别是波动 比较大的机票分项;而受关税影响比较大的核心商品通胀整体较为温和,受 到关税影响较大的分项环比增速甚至有所放缓 ...

Inflation Data Summary - The core CPI in the US for July increased by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations, while the year-on-year rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, slightly above the expected 3.0%[1] - The overall CPI month-on-month decreased from 0.29% in June to 0.2% in July, matching expectations, while the year-on-year rate remained stable at 2.7%, slightly below the anticipated 2.8%[1] - The market's confidence in a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has strengthened, with the probability of a rate cut rising to 96%[1] Tariff Impact on Inflation - The report indicates that tariffs have a mild impact on inflation, with companies passing on only 50-60% of tariff costs to consumers due to weak demand perceptions[2] - Despite an increase in tariffs in August, the overall core inflation is expected to rise only moderately, constrained by weak corporate demand and a softening job market[2] - Core service inflation showed a rebound, particularly in volatile categories like airfare, while core goods inflation remained subdued, with some categories experiencing a slowdown in price growth[1][2] Specific Inflation Components - Core services increased by 0.36% month-on-month, driven by transportation and medical services, while core goods rose by only 0.21%[4] - Energy prices fell significantly, with the energy component decreasing by -1.07% month-on-month, contributing to a decline in overall CPI growth by approximately 0.13 percentage points[4] - Food prices also saw a notable slowdown, decreasing by 0.28 percentage points to a growth rate of 0.05%[4]

Market Performance - Global stock markets mostly rose last week, with Vietnam's VN30 index leading gains[3] - The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 increased by 1.4%, 3.9%, and 2.4% respectively[3] - European indices also saw gains, with Germany's DAX up 3.2% and France's CAC40 up 2.6%[3] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Tech index rose by 1.2%, while India's SENSEX30 fell by 0.9%[3] Economic Indicators - The upcoming CPI data release is crucial for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with expectations of potential rate cuts later this year[3] - The Fed's internal divisions are evident, with some members advocating for three rate cuts this year[3] Geopolitical Risks - The upcoming US-Russia meeting on August 15 may impact global trade stability, especially if negotiations fail[3] - Significant geopolitical tensions could lead to increased sanctions against Russia, further destabilizing global markets[3] Investment Strategy - Market volatility is expected due to upcoming economic data and geopolitical events, suggesting a focus on long-term positions[3] - The anticipated Fed rate cuts (2-3 times this year) make interest rate-sensitive investments attractive, particularly in US Treasuries[3] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds in overseas markets, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions[3][42]

Market Performance - In July, global stock markets showed a mixed performance, with the US indices collectively rising, led by the Nasdaq, while the Dow remained flat[3] - The UK FTSE 100 outperformed the Nasdaq, and the VN30 index in Vietnam led the gains in the Asia-Pacific region[3] Economic Indicators - The US non-farm payrolls for July showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, with prior months' figures revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs[3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has surged to over 80%, with a 50% chance of another cut in October[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with two dissenting votes in the recent FOMC meeting and a key member announcing an early resignation[3] - The likelihood of a dovish shift from the Fed has increased, with expectations of a 50-75 basis point rate cut in the remaining months of the year[3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on interest rate cut trades and opportunities in the US stock market following potential corrections[3] - Short-term bonds are favorable, but long-term bonds may offer greater advantages due to duration and declining inflation[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions[3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts is influenced by a complex interplay between monetary policy and political positions, rather than being a straightforward economic issue [1][14]. - The recent FOMC meeting saw two dissenting votes for the first time in 32 years, reflecting a shift in the political landscape rather than a significant change in monetary policy dynamics [4][5]. - The removal of the phrase "uncertainty further decreases" from Powell's statements indicates ongoing concerns about the unpredictability of Trump's policies, which adds to the complexity of the economic environment [6][12]. Group 2 - The significant fluctuations in GDP growth rates are primarily driven by Trump's tariff policies, which have led to erratic import behaviors and inventory investments, masking the underlying weakening of domestic economic momentum [7][9]. - The private domestic final purchases (PDFP) growth rate has been revised downwards, indicating a decline in the internal economic strength of the U.S., which is heavily reliant on consumer spending [9][12]. - Powell's hawkish stance is characterized by a focus on inflation risks over employment concerns, suggesting a tighter monetary policy approach to combat inflation, despite the complexities introduced by external factors like tariffs [12][14]. Group 3 - The decision to cut interest rates in September appears to be data-driven, with the potential for political pressures from Trump regarding the Federal Reserve's actions, especially concerning debt servicing costs [17][14]. - The upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank meeting is anticipated to be a critical moment for assessing Powell's commitment to a hawkish monetary policy stance amidst evolving economic conditions [14][17].

证券研究报告 宏观 往前看,联储9月能否降息主要取决于 7-8月经济数据:若就业数据走弱或 关税对通胀传导不及预期,联储仍有望在9月开启降息。尽管鲍威尔强调就 业市场维持稳健,但是鲍威尔也承认就业市场面临下行风险。我们认为,就 业市场或进一步降温:6月岗位空缺数据显示就业市场需求仍在回落:5月 底以来驱逐非法移民加速,或加大就业的下行风险。此外,由于企业对需求 评估偏弱,关税对通胀的传导或不及此前预期,有助于缓解联储对通胀上行 的担忧（参见《关税将何时推升美国通胀?》,2025/7/18）。因此,我们 维持联储仍有可能在 9-12 月降息两次的判断。但是,如果就业和通胀数据 强于预期,联储年内降息预期或进一步回撤。近期关注周五(8月1日)将 2025年7月31日|中国内地 动态点评 北京时间 7月 31 日(周四)凌晨,联储如期按兵不动,基准利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%。两名联储理事投票反对:决议声明调整偏鸽派,但鲍威尔讲 话未能提供 9月降息的指引,发言偏鹰派。理事 Waller 和理事 Bowman 此 前要求 7月降息,本次会议投票反对维持利率不变的决议,是 1993年以来 首次出现两名理事投票反对 ...

Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident [3][7][38] - The June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI was 2.9%, matching expectations [3][38] - The market reacted to the data with a temporary decline in the 10Y Treasury yield and the US dollar index, which later recovered, indicating a focus on future inflation expectations [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound include rising oil prices, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services [4][39] - The energy CPI for June increased by 0.9% month-on-month, recovering from a previous decline of -1.0%, reflecting global oil price increases [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, driven by clothing, toys, and audio-visual equipment, indicating the impact of tariffs [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed to 0.2% month-on-month, while core non-rent service inflation rebounded, particularly in medical, transportation, and entertainment services [4][39] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects [5][28][40] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite potential inflation increases [5][34][40] - The combination of moderate inflation increases and weakening employment may influence the Fed's decision-making [34][40]

证券研究报告 宏观 美国 6 月核心 CPI 环比回升至 0.23%，虽不及彭博一致预期的 0.3%，但分 项显示关税影响已经有所显现；核心 CPI 同比小幅上行 0.1pp 至 2.9%，符 合预期；CPI 环比从 5 月的 0.08%升至 0.29%，符合预期，同比小幅上行 0.3pp 至 2.7%，略高于预期的 2.6%。6 月核心通胀环比虽不及预期，但受 关税影响比较大的分项通胀均有所回升，显示关税的传导仍在持续，这也导 致美债收益率先下后上：截至北京时间 22:30，联储降息预期下行 2bp 至 44bp，9 月降息概率降至 54%，2y、10y 美债收益率分别上行 6bp、3bp 至 3.95%、4.46%，美元指数上涨 0.4%至 98.4，美股高开后回落。 从分项来看，6 月核心商品、核心服务分项均有不同程度反弹，特别是核心 商品中受关税影响较大的一些分项，但由于二手车、新车等偏弱拖累了核心 CPI 整体涨幅。具体来看， 往前看，关税传导或进一步推高核心商品通胀，但考虑到就业市场后续或有 所放缓，我们维持联储 9 月和 12 月两次降息的判断。6 月 CPI 数据显示进 口依赖度高的商品通胀已 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains the judgment that the Federal Reserve will implement rate cuts in September and December, considering the potential impact of tariffs on core goods inflation and a possible slowdown in the labor market [1] Inflation and Tariffs - The June CPI data indicates a rebound in inflation for goods with high import dependence, contradicting claims that tariffs do not translate into consumer prices [1] - The weighted average import tariff rate in the U.S. was only 8.7% in May, and some companies have delayed price transmission by consuming inventory [1] - It is anticipated that the impact of tariffs on inflation will become more evident, potentially pushing U.S. inflation higher in the short term [1] Business Sentiment - A survey by the New York Fed shows that 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms plan to pass on tariff costs to consumers within three months [1] - Jerome Powell stated during the June FOMC press conference that the Fed needs to observe the impact of tariffs over the summer, suggesting that the rise in inflation may already be within the Fed's expectations [1]