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光大期货金融期货日报-20250611
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 03:36
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, the market is expected to be volatile. Since June, Chinese assets have performed strongly, with stocks and bonds rising together, pricing in possible policy changes in June. The market style may still favor consumption and technology sectors. The fundamentals in the second quarter may turn into a situation of "weak reality, strong expectation" [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the market is expected to be volatile. In June, the focus of the bond market has returned to changes in the capital situation. Short - term capital tightening expectations have weakened, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 10, most A - share market indices pulled back. The Wind All - A index fell 0.68% with a trading volume of 1.45 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices all declined. The TMT sector pulled back significantly. There are three factors contributing to the positive outlook for Chinese assets: progress in Sino - US communication, potential changes in long - term consumption stimulus policies, and possible further capital market reform measures at the Lujiazui Forum. The PPI data shows that China's inflation level remains low, and the fundamentals in the second quarter may be "weak reality, strong expectation". In the first quarter, the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit has increased by about 4% year - on - year, but the ROE is still in the bottoming - out stage [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On June 10, treasury bond futures closed with gains in some contracts. The central bank conducted 1986 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 2559 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 declined. In June, concerns about short - term capital tightening in the bond market have increased due to factors such as large - scale maturity of inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased government bond issuance. However, the central bank's earlier net injection of 5000 billion yuan through 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations has alleviated market concerns, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1][2]. 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 10, the IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts all declined, with decreases of - 0.62%, - 0.69%, - 0.84%, and - 0.88% respectively. The SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices also fell [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On June 10, the TS, TF, T, and TL contracts showed different trends, with the TF and TL contracts rising slightly, and the TS and T contracts showing small changes [3]. - **Treasury Bond Spot Yields**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds had small fluctuations on June 10 [3]. 3. Market News - China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, while imports decreased by 3.4% year - on - year [4]. - In May 2025, China's consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. From January to May, the average CPI decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year [4]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC contracts, including the closing prices of corresponding stock index futures over time and the relationship between the futures prices and the spot prices [6][7][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][16][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, as well as the forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, and the exchange rates between the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen [20][21][22][24][25].