近期，墨西哥比索延续上半年强劲表现，在本周创下逾十个月来的最高水平。然而，随着美国对多国加 征关税的暂缓措施即将于7月9日到期，市场对比索后续走势日益审慎。多家机构预测显示，当前高位运 行的比索未来一年或将温和回调。 连续升值动能减弱，回调预期升温 墨西哥比索自2024年底受贸易紧张局势影响大幅贬值后，进入持续回升通道。根据路透社发布的外汇市 场调查，2025年前半年比索已累计升值13.2%，成为拉美表现最强劲的货币之一。其兑美元汇率从去年 底的20以上水平升至目前的18.7左右。 路透调查对22位外汇专家的中值预测显示，比索未来12个月内或将温和贬值5.5%，汇率水平预计从7月 2日的18.72下行至19.80。 根据墨西哥央行发布的《2025年6月私人部门经济专家预期调查》，分析师中值预测比索将在年底贬至1 美元兑20.13比索，较当前水平贬值约7%，反映出市场对其中长期走势趋弱的普遍预期。 分析人士指出，比索回调预期的背后，反映出市场对全球贸易政策变化的担忧。美国对多国加征关税 的"冻结期"即将于7月9日到期，若重启关税，将可能引发新一轮贸易摩擦。 市场目前普遍聚焦7月9日这一关键节点。届时，美国政府是 ...

Astris Advisory Japan KK策略师指出，在过去五年中，每年7月日元均录得涨幅；过去六个月，由于全 球贸易摩擦以及特朗普呼吁美联储降息等因素导致美元承压，日元升值了9%。自2020年以来，日元每 年7月都上涨，平均兑美元上涨2.8%，成为同期表现最强劲的月份。日本央行的政策变化、8月暑假前 的仓位调整以及出口商将海外收入兑换成日元用于支付股息等多种因素共同推升日元。日元强势的主要 原因可能是美元的全面滑坡。在流动性下降且很多基金经理休假的情况下，减少风险敞口是合理的做 法。没有理由认为今年7月会有所不同，市场可能继续看到日元的强势表现。 高盛：将美联储下次降息预测提前至9月 凯投宏观：贸易紧张局势是亚洲经济体的主要风险 Lombard Odier：预计美元未来12个月持续走软 高盛分析师表示，将美联储下次降息的时间预测从12月提前到9月，反映出对当前经济状况和未来通胀 趋势的新评估。初步证据显示，关税对美国通胀的影响似乎比之前预计的小，而其他导致通胀下降的因 素则更为显著；美联储官员可能也持有相似观点，即关税对物价水平的影响是一次性的。美国人找工作 变得越来越困难，季节性因素以及移民政策的变 ...

| SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | な女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | な女女 | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | | 【硅锰】 【钢材】 今日盘面弱势震荡。 淡季螺纹需求环比承压，产量有所回升，去库节奏放缓。热卷需求仍有韧性，产量维持高位，库存有所回 落。目前高炉仍有利润，铁水产量维持相对高位，不过淡季承接能力不足，负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游行业看，基建回暖 缺乏持续性，制造业投资增速继续放缓，地产销售低位徘徊，投资、新开工等指 ...

2025年，中国房地产市场正处于深刻变革之中。随着政策红利的不断释放，市场活力迅速复苏，同时也为房主们带来了前所未有的机遇与挑战。随 着下半年逐渐临近，房主们需要未雨绸缪，做好全方位的准备，以应对市场的变化，确保房产价值和权益得到有效保障。 紧跟政策动态，合理规划还款方案 2025年房贷利率持续下行。5月7日，央行宣布降准0.5个百分点，释放约1万亿元长期流动性，推动贷款利率进一步下降。紧接着，5月20日，1年期 和5年期以上LPR分别下调了10个基点，降至3.0%和3.5%。与此同时，个人住房公积金贷款利率也下调了0.25个百分点，首套房5年期利率已降至历 史低点——2.6%。 举例来说，若房主持有100万元的住房按揭贷款，选择30年等额本息还款，LPR利率下调10个基点，将节省大约2万元的利息，每月月供将减少56 元。对于100万元公积金贷款，30年期等额本息还款月供将减少133元，且总利息节省可达到4.76万元。这一政策对贷款购房者无疑是巨大的利好。 然而，多数现有房贷用户的利率是根据重定价周期进行调整的，通常为一年一次。因此，房主需要密切关注央行和金融部门的政策动向，及时与银 行沟通，确保自己能够享受 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 | 债市关注点再度回归资金面变化。受到同业存单到期压力较大、政府债发行 | | | --- | --- | | 继续放量影响，市场对 | 6 月资金面阶段性收紧担忧有所增加。上周四央行提 | | 前公布 | 3 个月期买断式逆回购操作量净投放 5000 亿元，市场资金面担忧明 | | 显缓解，债市呈现小幅牛陡走势。短期来看，资金面紧张预期走弱，债市有 | | | 望偏强震荡。 | | 光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 06 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场多数指数回调，Wind 全 A 下跌 0.68%，成交额 1.45 万亿元。 | | | | 中证 1000 指数下跌 0.92%，中证 500 指数下跌 0.82%，沪深 300 指数下跌 | | | | 0.51%，上证 50 指数下跌 0.39%。指数午盘后快速下跌，之后回升企稳，TMT | | | | 板块回调明显。自 6 月以来，中国资产表现偏强，股债齐升，计价 6 月可能 | | | | 存在的政策变化。其 ...

关于供给出清路径与时点的思考暨光储策略会预热 20250608 摘要 光伏行业自 2023 年四季度进入亏损状态，已持续约 6 个季度，所有公 司均面临毛利亏损，制造环节尤为严重，现金流普遍紧张，硅料和硅片 价格波动大，电池组件价格持续下降，一体化企业也面临亏现金流的压 力。 光伏行业普遍裁员，龙头企业威马农机裁员规模超过一半，三四线企业 如益通新能源等已被国资委接管，反映出行业面临严峻的生存挑战。 光伏产业未来驱动因素包括政策变化与技术迭代，预计今年年底将发生 重大变化，下半年应关注政策层面的硅料公司及技术迭代层面的电池相 关标的。 当前光伏行业持仓比例已低于 2020 年双碳目标，甚至低于 2017 年和 2019 年水平，投资者数量持续下降，反映市场对光伏行业信心不足， 筹码和基本面均处于底部。 解决光伏行业供需矛盾需政策干预和自然出清，政策上淘汰落后产能， 自然出清则依赖技术迭代提升效率，电池片环节技术突破是关键。 Q&A 当前光伏行业的筹码结构和基本面情况如何？ 目前光伏行业的筹码结构和基本面都处于底部位置。从筹码持仓比例来看，已 经进入到碳中和之前的水平。2025 年一季度相比 2024 年进一步 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the company Core Insights - The company, Bohui Co., has experienced a drastic decline in profitability, with a cumulative loss of 5.1 billion in just two years, erasing nearly 80% of its ten-year accumulated profits of 6.5 billion [15][35] - The significant losses are attributed to changes in tax policies that have imposed new consumption taxes on its main product, heavy aromatic hydrocarbons, which previously benefited from tax exemptions [19][35] - The company has attempted to pivot by producing derivative products to circumvent the new tax regulations, but this strategy has raised concerns with tax authorities [36][44] Summary by Sections Company Background - Bohui Co. has been in the fuel oil deep processing industry for 20 years, primarily producing heavy aromatic hydrocarbons, which are essential for asphalt and rubber [10] - The company saw substantial revenue and profit growth from 2013 to 2022, peaking in 2022 with revenues of 2.97 billion and profits of 152 million [12] Recent Developments - In early 2025, the company announced a change in control, with state-owned Wuxi Guozi acquiring a significant stake [3][5] - The acquisition process involves multiple stages, including share transfer and capital increase, with the original owner set to exit with 263 million [5][7] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a 6.32% decline in revenue to 2.78 billion, with a notable shift to losses due to reduced trade income and increased tax burdens [15] - The new consumption tax policy introduced in June 2023 has drastically affected the company's profitability, leading to a situation where selling its main product results in losses [21][35] Tax Policy Impact - The new tax policy requires the company to pay approximately 2200 per ton in taxes for heavy aromatic hydrocarbons, which significantly exceeds its profit margins [21][22] - The company has attempted to adapt by producing derivative products that are not explicitly covered by the new tax regulations, but this has led to scrutiny from tax authorities [36][44] Strategic Responses - Bohui Co. has reduced production and announced plans to stop producing aromatic series products, citing operational difficulties while simultaneously managing idle funds [29][30] - Despite these challenges, the company has resumed production of its aromatic products, indicating a struggle to maintain operations amid financial pressures [34]

所谓的十年盈利，不过是仰仗税收政策的优惠…… 作者 | 贝壳XY 编辑 | 小白 近两年，地方国资接盘上市民企的现象并不少见，但无锡国资拟斥资6.8亿接盘博汇股份（300839.S Z）这一事件还是受到了大众的热烈讨论。 还记得去年3月那条轰动市场的大新闻吗?"某公司短短9个月欠税近5亿！" 没错，正是博汇股份。 （来源： 博汇股份 公告 20240329 ） 而且这5亿税款还都是消费税！要知道，消费税可是和销量绑定的KPI，这家公司用9个月时间干出了 5亿消费税"成绩单"，说明产品卖得相当火爆啊！ 那为何又要欠税不缴？如今还沦落成为旧主的弃子？ 无锡国资频频"揽 A " 2025年2月，博汇股份披露控股权变更公告，接盘方为国资背景的无锡惠山原鑫曦望产业升级并购投 资合伙企业（以下简称原鑫曦望），公司实控人也将从金碧华变为无锡市国资委。 此次控股权变更分三个阶段：转让、定增、弃权。 首先， 金碧华共持有博汇股份 52.29% 股份，拟先将 13.06% 股份作价 2.63 亿元转让给原鑫曦 望； 其次， 原鑫曦望将用 不超过 4.17 亿资金，认购 博汇股份定增 股票，持股比例将增至 33.13% ； 最后， ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: May 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Performance Futures Market - On May 28, the main contracts 2509 of coke and coking coal futures oscillated downward, hitting new lows for September contracts since January 2017 and September 2016 respectively in the afternoon. The J2509 contract closed at 1338.5 yuan/ton, down 1.91%, with a trading volume of 21,100 lots and an open interest of 57,482 lots, an increase of 1,175 lots. The JM2509 contract closed at 779 yuan/ton, down 2.20%, with a trading volume of 537,375 lots and an open interest of 526,866 lots, an increase of 5,852 lots. The capital inflow/outflow was 0.03 billion yuan for J2509 and -0.73 billion yuan for JM2509 [5]. Spot Market - On May 28, the daily KDJ indicators of the coke and coking coal 2509 contracts declined, with the J and K values turning down and the D value continuing to slide. The daily MACD green bar of the coke 2509 contract continued to expand, while that of the coking coal 2509 contract turned to expand. The ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1390 yuan/ton, with no change. The price in Tangshan was 1320 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The aggregated price of low - sulfur main coking coal in different regions remained stable [8]. Group 3: Market Outlook Coke - In the past 5 weeks, the coke production of independent coking plants has hovered near the highest level since early August last year, while the coke production of steel mills has slightly declined since late April. The coke inventory at ports has significantly decreased in the past 5 weeks, but the inventory reduction speed of steel mills and coking plants is slow, adding new downward pressure on coke prices. The profit per ton of coke turned from profit to loss after 2 consecutive weeks of profit, mainly because the second - round price increase of coke spot prices did not occur after the first - round increase in mid - April, creating conditions for steel mills to propose a price cut, which was implemented on May 16 [10]. Coking Coal - From January to April, the year - on - year growth of imports turned negative, but the absolute value of imports remained at a high level, and the overall loose pattern was difficult to reverse. The raw coal inventory of coal washing plants has significantly increased, and the clean coal inventory has risen again to a relatively high level. In the past 5 weeks, the inventory of independent coking plants has significantly decreased, and the port inventory has also returned to the normal level before early August last year, but the inventory of steel mills has increased steadily. If coking plants also adopt inventory reduction strategies while steel mills still have relatively sufficient inventory, coking coal prices are likely to fall rather than rise [10]. Overall - Although the weak market of coke and coking coal futures continues, and there may be new lows in the next two weeks, positive factors in the fundamentals and news are accumulating. Attention should be paid to whether a turning point of bottom - fishing rebound can occur in about the next two weeks under the changes in tariff policies and the recovery of confidence in the steel market [10] Group 4: Industry News - In April 2025, the national issuance of new bonds was 253.4 billion yuan, including 23.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 230.1 billion yuan of special bonds. From January to April, the cumulative issuance of new local government bonds was 1492.7 billion yuan, including 302.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 1190.4 billion yuan of special bonds [12]. - The construction of the Dapingtan Coal Mine project is accelerating. The mine is located in Kuche City, Aksu Region, Xinjiang, with a mining area of 16.56 square kilometers, a geological reserve of 247 million tons, and a designed production capacity of 2.4 million tons/year [12]. - Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary, Anhui Jin'an Mining Co., Ltd., obtained the exploration right of Fanqiao Iron Mine in Huoqiu County, Anhui Province. The mine has an ore resource of 116.4967 million tons and a normal - year production capacity of 3.5 million tons/year of iron ore and 1.04 million tons/year of iron concentrate [12][13]. - Jiantou Energy expects the thermal coal market to be generally loose in 2025, with coal prices likely to decline further. The company's long - term agreement signing coverage rate in 2025 exceeds 80% [13]. - Lingyuan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.'s 2290m³ blast furnace was successfully put into operation on May 27, 2025, after capacity replacement [13]. - Handan City encourages steel and logistics enterprises to integrate resources, explore centralized procurement of bulk commodities, and develop multimodal transport [13][14]. - The production - continuation land use project of Heidaigou and Halwusu Open - pit Mines in Zhungeer Banner was approved, which can meet the land demand of the two mines for the next five years [14]. - From January to April 2025, the automobile industry's production increased by 11% year - on - year, but the profit decreased by 5.1%. The industry needs to control costs [14]. - In April 2025, China exported 10.462 million tons of steel, basically the same as the previous month. From January to April, the cumulative export was 37.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [14]. - In April 2025, the US coal production was 39.6403 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.37% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.53% [15]. - In March 2025, India's coal imports were 20.2908 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.79% and a month - on - month increase of 13.65% [15]. - Glencore's Ulan Coal Mine in Australia was approved for expansion, allowing it to mine an additional 18.8 million tons of coal and extend its mine life by two years [15]. - The nationwide blackout in Portugal on April 28 may have caused economic losses of over 2 billion euros to Portuguese enterprises [15] Group 5: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the aggregated price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average pig iron output, the inventory of coke and coking coal in ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of coal washing plants, the inventory of raw coal and clean coal in coal washing plants, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [16][17][19][29][33][36]

以下文章来源于晚点Auto ，作者晚点团队 晚点Auto . 从制造到创造，从不可能到可能。《晚点LatePost》旗下汽车品牌。 当行业进入收缩期，大多数企业无法独善其身。 文 丨 赵宇 编辑 丨 龚方毅 最近几年，全球汽车产业开始面临电动化趋势放缓、需求萎缩、市场竞争加剧以及国际贸易环境不稳 定等一系列挑战。为应对挑战，多数海外汽车品牌不得不采取裁员、收缩业务等措施，以期实现降本 增效，等待新一轮产业扩张周期的到来。 我们通过梳理近一年海外车企的裁员信息发现：在头部海外车企和供应商已公布的裁员计划中，累计 涉及的员工总数已接近 10 万人，中国、北美、欧洲、日本等全球主要汽车市场均有涉及。 | 公司名称 | 裁员时间 | 涉及人数 | 裁员原因 | 涉及部门/地区 | 后续计划 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大众 | 2030年前 | 计划裁员3.5万人, | 成本削减、竞争加剧、 | 绝大部分 | 推进成本削减; | | | | 已裁7000人 | 排放罚款等 | 位于德国 | 暂不关闭德国工 | | 奔驰 | 2024年2月 | 中国区15%员工 ...