Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The attack on Iran by the US and Israel marks the entry of the Kondratieff Wave depression into its second half. The intensity of disorder in the second half is likely to be 10 times that of the first half according to historical cycle laws [4]. - The market is pricing for short - term high - intensity conflicts, but this conflict may evolve into a long - term low - intensity one, causing more severe damage to the global economy [5]. - The market underestimates the determination of the Zionist group behind Trump to destroy the Iranian regime, and the US and Israel underestimate the resistance will of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps [6]. - A global energy crisis is approaching, and countries are shifting their primary goal from economic development to energy survival. The price of crude oil is unlikely to drop significantly, and there may be a widespread shortage of refined chemicals. The US financial market is evolving from a liquidity shock to a liquidity crisis and may turn into a full - blown economic and financial crisis in the summer of 2026 [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - The US is likely to return to the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US Treasury bonds, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals. The global economy has passed its peak and is on a downward trend [23]. - The US government's quarterly interest payments have reached a new high. The core CPI in the US increased by 0.4% month - on - month in January, and the PPI final demand increased by 0.5% month - on - month, indicating an upward trend in inflation. The US is sliding towards stagflation [24][27][30]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US is 213,000, and the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Employment sentiment is declining, and the number of active corporate layoffs is rising. Retail and food sales showed zero month - on - month growth in December, indicating a weakening of overall consumption [35][38][40]. - The import value of capital goods in the US reached a record high of $107.3 billion in December, indicating an acceleration of re - industrialization. The ISM manufacturing PMI index unexpectedly expanded, and the service PMI expanded more than expected in February [43][46]. - In December, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI slightly expanded, probably driven by the expansion of the military industry. India's manufacturing and service PMIs remain at a certain level of prosperity [49][51]. Asset Allocation - There are two possible scenarios for the war: a quick end with asset performance returning to pre - war levels, or a long - drawn - out conflict leading to rising oil prices and falling prices of other assets. The situation in the Middle East is likely to evolve into a long - term low - intensity conflict [54]. - Crude oil prices are unlikely to drop significantly. Holders of crude oil long positions can continue to hold them to hedge against the uncertainty of the long - term Middle East war. There may be a widespread shortage of refined chemicals, and investment opportunities can be found based on the supply - demand relationship of individual chemical products [54][58]. - A - shares are semi - closed, and the market in March can be optimistic. Rising inflation is beneficial to traditional cyclical industries, and the CSI 300 index is the most beneficiary, so it can be overweighted [54][79]. - Institutions are accelerating their withdrawal from US stocks, and international funds are expected to continue to flow into the Chinese equity market [76].