Group 1 - The fund aims for long-term stable appreciation of assets by focusing on value investment in fundamentally sound and liquid stocks that are relatively undervalued [2][3] - The investment strategy includes a proactive approach to bond investments to reduce overall portfolio volatility and seek excess returns, while stock investments focus on selecting individual stocks for long-term holding with appropriate tactical adjustments [3][4] - The fund's performance benchmark is a combination of the Shanghai 180 Index and Shenzhen 100 Index, reflecting a balanced risk-return profile [4][5] Group 2 - As of the end of the reporting period, the fund's net asset value growth rate was 6.70%, outperforming the benchmark growth rate of 1.19% [12] - The fund's total shares at the end of the reporting period amounted to 508,000,722.03 shares, indicating a decrease from the previous period due to net redemptions [16] - The fund's investment portfolio is heavily weighted towards the manufacturing sector, which constitutes 53.92% of the total assets, followed by mining at 29.91% [14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish stance on stocks and commodities in the long - term, driven by global fiscal support for the economy and the shift in monetary policy. In the short - term, it is necessary to focus on the marginal effect of fiscal policy in the third quarter, the Politburo meeting at the end of July, and whether the US will rally other countries against China. [73] - There is a trend of asset spillover, including US assets flowing to non - US and alternative assets, and Chinese fixed - income assets flowing to low - volatility stocks (banks and neutral stocks). The "asset shortage" has shifted towards a better match between liquidity and assets, and stocks and commodities tend to move in tandem. [73] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Fiscal Dominance in the Kondratieff Winter - Fiscal policy determines the economic performance differences among global countries in the past few years due to high leverage ratios in the household and corporate sectors. All countries are expanding fiscal spending. [13] - China's exports have been strong, as shown by the economic formula \(Y = C + I + G+(X - M)=C + S+T\), and \(M - X=(I - S)+(G - T)\). [13] - Fiscal spending shows a "front - loaded high, back - loaded low" pattern this year. The remaining quota in the second half of 2024 was close to 8 trillion, while in 2025 it is only close to 6 trillion. Local government bond net financing has been high, reaching 4.6 trillion, with replacement bond issuance exceeding 1.8 trillion and a nearly 90% issuance progress. In the third quarter, special bond issuance is expected to be 2 trillion, lower than 2.56 trillion in 2024 and close to 1.98 trillion in 2023. [16] - The 300 - billion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bond is used to stimulate consumption. It has various subsidy policies for home appliances, new energy vehicles, and other fields, with different subsidy standards for different regions. Some localities have faced issues such as running out of funds, and future adjustments will shift from "universal" to "precise" regulation. [17] 3.2. Why Involution? Why Anti - Involution? - Involution refers to the serious deviation of production factor prices. The current supply - side reform emphasizes "quality improvement" rather than "quantity reduction" and is aimed at long - term high - quality development, which is different from the previous one. [47] - In June, the year - on - year CPI increased by 0.1%, and the PPI decreased by 3.6%, with the PPI - CPI gap continuing to widen. Fiscal policy has addressed the "quantity" issue, and there is no intention to use monetary policy to solve the "price" problem. [51] - Most industries show "quantity increase" but "price decrease." The real estate market has shifted from "price - for - quantity" to a situation of both quantity and price decline. [52][53] - The trade war has compressed profits and costs in an economy that relies on foreign trade. Coal and electricity prices have decreased to benefit downstream industries. [57][59] - There are signs of active inventory replenishment in industrial enterprises, but inventory cycle prediction should not be dogmatic. The commodity index leads the PPI by two months and seems to have bottomed out, and the PMI also shows signs of improvement. [65][66][68] 3.3. Some Conclusions on Major Asset Classes - **Stocks**: The dumbbell strategy is still applicable. Although the market is bullish, it is not recommended to chase high prices at present, especially for small - and micro - cap stocks. [84] - **Commodities**: - The bullish sentiment in the current round may last until the end of this month or early next month. There are many opportunities in different sectors, but no comprehensive ones. Volatility will increase after the release of global liquidity. [85][88] - Precious metals are worth long - term allocation to hedge against currency credit risks, but they need an "asset shortage" scenario to continue rising. [87] - Base metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin have supply disruptions and long - term supply shortages, with positive demand prospects driven by technological trends. However, they lack short - term drivers. New - energy metals like lithium carbonate and industrial silicon are in a supply - demand surplus, and it is recommended to use range - trading strategies. [87] - The black metal sector is in an overall supply - demand surplus, and it is advisable to observe supply disruptions and demand verification. Iron ore is a good long - position after a decline, while coal and soda ash are suitable for short - positions after an increase. [87] - In the energy and chemical sector, attention should be paid to the impact of raw materials on the overall valuation. With excess supply of oil and coal and a shortage of gas, the profit of downstream chemical products is difficult to expand under the current situation of low demand and ongoing large - scale capacity expansion. [87]

证券研究报告|行业定期报告 2025年07月04日 | 招商证券 总量的视野 | 推荐(维持) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电话会议纪要 | 研究部/总量研究 | | | | 宏观:2025年海外宏观中期展望;策略:A股七月观点及配置建议;固收:寻 | 行业规模 | | | | 找占优策略-25年下半年债市展望;银行:不疾而速-2025年银行半年策略;地 | | | 占比% | | 产:高频数据更新及最新观点;资产配置:中期大类资产与机构行为展望。 | 股票家数(只) | 388 | 7.6 | | | 总市值(十亿元) | 19941.3 | 22.2 | | □ 【宏观-王沂宾】:2025年海外宏观中期展望 | 流通市值(十亿元) | 18926.7 | 23.2 | | 在经历 H1 美国政策的大起大落后,Q3 或许能看到美国贸易政策、财政政策、 | 行业指数 | | | | 货币政策逐渐明朗。但由于特朗普政策的高度不确定性,也难以排除小概率 % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | 极端情形的发生。1)年内贸易政策或向整体缓和、局部加码方向演进;2) | 绝对 ...

Domestic Insights - Export growth continues to decline, with June's port cargo throughput falling below the same period in 2024, indicating a significant drop in export growth[6] - Domestic demand shows structural differentiation, with actual economic growth continuing to trend downward; investment remains weak, and real estate transactions show limited recovery[6] - Central fiscal policy is actively promoting initiatives, with net financing of government bonds reaching a recent high in mid-June, indicating a focus on livelihood areas[6] - The global equity asset bubble is the only path forward, with a strong emphasis on potential upward risks in equity assets in the second half of the year; Hong Kong stocks are expected to outperform A-shares[1] International Insights - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in June, with monetary policy not expected to be the focus of asset pricing until late August and mid-September meetings[2] - The probability of simultaneous escalation in Middle Eastern tensions and tariffs is low; if oil prices rise due to geopolitical tensions, tariff policies may ease, leading to a high likelihood of rate cuts within the year[2] - The U.S. Senate passed the Stablecoin Act on June 17, which may allow for a new form of liquidity provision without significant rate cuts, altering the valuation logic of global equity assets[2][7]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" for several key companies, including Xining Special Steel, Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel [8]. Core Viewpoints - The market remains in a state of fluctuation, with the non-ferrous sector outperforming the black metal sector. Financial attributes of metals like gold, silver, and copper are expected to benefit from the current economic conditions [2]. - The macroeconomic policies are showing effectiveness, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.5% in May, indicating an overall expansion in economic output [4][12]. - The steel industry is experiencing a divergence in profitability across the black metal supply chain, with some companies undervalued and presenting good strategic investment opportunities [2][4]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production has slightly decreased to 2.417 million tons, with a minor decline in the utilization rate of blast furnaces to 90.6% [3][11]. - The total inventory of steel has decreased by 0.1%, with a narrowing decline rate of 2.2 percentage points [23][25]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products has weakened, with rebar consumption dropping by 7.9% week-on-week [38][49]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel has increased by 2.0% [40]. Raw Material Analysis - Iron ore prices have declined, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $96.1 per ton, down 0.7% week-on-week [57]. - The average daily iron ore import volume at 45 ports has increased by 17.9% week-on-week [57]. Price and Profit Analysis - Steel prices are showing a slight improvement, with the current spot price for rebar in Beijing at 3,170 RMB per ton, up 1.9% week-on-week [73]. - The immediate gross profit for long-process rebar is reported at -134 RMB per ton, indicating a slight improvement in margins [72][73].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strategy meeting highlighted the investment opportunities in the banking wealth management market amidst high volatility, emphasizing the importance of rational investment strategies and asset allocation [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Wang Dong from Huayin Wealth Management suggests that investors should rationally view short-term market fluctuations and focus on assets with stable cash flows [1][7]. - The necessity of equity investment in wealth management products is emphasized, as pure fixed-income products fail to capture the benefits of corporate asset appreciation [2][4]. - A diversified investment portfolio should include both linear and non-linear tools to balance risk and return, adapting to the high volatility of financial assets [7]. Group 2: Asset Allocation - Wang Dong identifies three key considerations for equity investment: ensuring options are not overly expensive, avoiding valuation traps by selecting high-quality companies, and frequently rebalancing equity positions due to the short duration of wealth management products [4][6]. - Multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches are recommended to enhance portfolio robustness and achieve long-term compounding advantages [5][6]. - The importance of matching client profiles with product positioning is highlighted, ensuring that investment strategies align with individual risk preferences and market conditions [7]. Group 3: Market Analysis - The global market has experienced significant turbulence, with a notable decline in U.S. stocks and bonds, while Chinese assets have remained stable, indicating a shift in macroeconomic narratives [6][7]. - The current environment is characterized by rising geopolitical risks and a potential historical turning point, necessitating a cautious approach to investment [6][7]. - Investors are encouraged to embrace stable cash flow assets and consider long-term strategies that capitalize on structural opportunities amidst uncertainty [7].