策略周报 康波萧条期的全面加速 策略周末谈（0301） 核心结论 2026 年，萧条期的"三不变"决定了趋势正式进入加速阶段—— 一不变：RMB 升值的方向不变，调控的是节奏 离岸汇率创新高是跨境资金加速回流的结果。即便央行下场调控，更多调控 的是斜率而非方向。历史上出台类似的调控政策都基本不会改变实际的汇率 变动趋势。对市场的影响也相对有限。从结果看，升值带动外资流入，已初 现端倪。面对趋势渐弱的美股，年初以来我们观察到了主动资金开始陆续的 流入。这是康波萧条期中，属于追赶国股市的机遇。 丙午之年，大争之世。1978 年底，伊朗伊斯兰革命爆发，并引发第二次石 油危机；而 2026 年美以对伊战争爆发，也将带动商品超级周期走向新的阶 段。对 A 股而言，温和通胀将在 2026 年兑现为一轮属于追赶国的繁荣（炼 化、贵金属、有色金属、煤炭、油运等）。 风险提示：国际局势变化风险，美债利率超预期上行，产业政策变化风险等。 1 | 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 分析师 曹柳龙 S0800525010001 13817664054 caoliulong@research.xbmail.com.cn 徐嘉 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance during the Spring Festival holiday, providing a positive reference for the A-share market as it prepares to open. The performance of overseas assets and Hong Kong stocks during the holiday is expected to be a key indicator for sector rotation in the A-share market [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rally, contributing to a positive atmosphere for the A-share market's opening [1][9]. - During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock index fluctuated but ultimately rose, while the U.S. stock index saw only slight increases [2][10]. - Gold prices showed a four-day winning streak, indicating a strong performance in the precious metals sector [2][11]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - The Hong Kong market displayed structural trends, with sectors such as technology, internet, consumer electronics, and lithium batteries leading the gains. Notable stocks included Meituan, Tencent, and Alibaba [3][11]. - The optical fiber and cable leader, Longi Fiber Optic, saw its stock price double this year, driven by increased demand for high-fiber-count cables due to AI data center construction [12]. - Shipping and port stocks rose significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with China Merchants Energy's stock increasing nearly 90% since the beginning of the year [12]. Group 3: Fund Performance - Several funds heavily invested in Hong Kong stocks saw substantial gains, particularly in sectors like AI hardware, gold, innovative pharmaceuticals, and oil transportation, with some stocks rising over 10% during the A-share market's closure [11][12]. - Some innovative pharmaceutical companies in Hong Kong, such as Hang Seng Biotechnology and Hang Seng Healthcare, reported year-to-date gains exceeding 10% [4][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect structural opportunities in the A-share market to continue, with resource products and AI sectors remaining the main focus for capital [15]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to sustain demand for gold, with expectations of a continued bull market for gold over the next 2-3 years [15][16]. - Investment strategies are suggested to focus on high-growth sectors like AI hardware and applications, as well as undervalued sectors that may experience fundamental improvements and valuation recovery [17].

用中国定价和海外定价的同类资产，在过去一段时间内的相关性来衡量全球大类资产的协同性，2023年 以来再度冲高 全球大类资产的共振性的逻辑背后是康波萧条期尾声，乌克兰危机、全球贸易摩擦等宏大语境下，人工 智能浪潮带来AI叙事和美元公信力不足驱动追逐避险资产的"科技股+贵金属"双重组合，特别是商品和 股票的相关性同时新高，债券背后的中美货币周期也在由背离走向同步演绎，全球资产一致性的背景下 通过跨资产分散风险和降低波动率也变得尤为困难。 2020年一季度的全资产同向波动则是极端风险厌恶下美元流动性危机的直接体现 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2023年全球大类资产相关性再度冲高，逻辑源于康波萧条期 尾声、地缘风险及AI叙事下"科技股+贵金属"组合走强，叠加中美货币周期趋于同步，分散风险难度增 加。过去20年类似高相关仅出现两次：2013年缩减恐慌引发流动性拐点预期，2020年新冠疫情导致美元 流动性危机。 国信证券主要观点如下： 过去20年间全球大类资产曾经有两次到过当前的高相关区间 第一次是2013年中，第二次是2020年一季度全球新冠疫情暴发带来的美元现金为王。2013年中的资产高 相关源于美联储政 ...

Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to see three major catalysts in 2026: 1) Interest margins are likely to stabilize as new loan rates reach a low point, and deposit repricing effects will continue to improve banks' funding costs [6][7] 2) Risks related to real estate exposure are expected to have peaked, with significant progress in mitigating financial risks in the real estate sector [6] 3) Retail business may show marginal improvement as credit risks ease and wealth management activities are expected to activate [6][7] - Investment strategies for 2026 suggest focusing on four main lines: 1) Increase allocation to high-quality city commercial banks with strong earnings elasticity, recommending Hangzhou Bank and paying attention to Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, Chongqing Bank, Qingdao Bank, and Xiamen Bank [5][7] 2) Allocate to high-dividend large banks, with a focus on Bank of China Hong Kong (H), CITIC Bank (H), China Construction Bank (H), and China Merchants Bank [5][7] 3) Pay attention to Shanghai Bank and Industrial Bank due to expected strong redemption of convertible bonds [5][7] 4) Consider banks with significant valuation discounts and potential for performance recovery, such as Minsheng Bank and Ping An Bank [5][7] Mechanical Equipment - The CDU liquid cooling pump is expected to benefit from the accelerated construction of AI data centers, as it plays a crucial role in regulating coolant flow and pressure, constituting 30%-40% of the liquid cooling system's value [9][10] - The market size for CDU liquid pumps is projected to reach between $1.139 billion and $1.544 billion in 2026, driven by the increasing demand for liquid cooling solutions as chip power exceeds the limits of air cooling [9][11] - The cooling source side of the liquid cooling system is also expected to benefit from the rapid development of AI data centers, with the global market for cooling water units projected to grow from approximately 105.21 billion yuan in 2024 to nearly 167.33 billion yuan by 2031 [10] Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX's application for an orbital data center system aims to reduce energy consumption from ground data centers, which may create significant incremental opportunities for rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [22][24] - The acceleration of low Earth orbit satellite constellations is expected to drive domestic leading rocket launch service providers to actively expand their satellite constellation-related businesses, creating new growth opportunities in upstream supply chain segments [22][24] - The construction of orbital data centers is anticipated to significantly reduce energy consumption, benefiting both rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [24] Fixed Income - The manufacturing PMI for January showed a significant seasonal decline, with the index at 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [14][15] - The service sector PMI slightly decreased, while the construction sector's activity index fell below 40%, indicating a need for further economic stabilization measures [19] - The credit market is expected to face structural opportunities despite a less favorable recovery outlook in February, with a focus on medium to high-rated city investment bonds [42][47] Airline Industry - Air China is projected to report a net loss of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, with Q4 losses expected to be between 3.17 billion and 3.77 billion yuan, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous year [27][28] - Despite the projected losses, operational data for 2025 shows steady improvement, with available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increasing by 3.24% and 5.85% respectively [27][28] - The long-term demand for civil aviation in China is viewed positively, supported by the company's strong route network [28] Steel Industry - Fangda Special Steel is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected between 835 million and 998 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 236.90% to 302.67% [31][32] - The growth is attributed to increased production and sales volumes, along with a decline in raw material costs, which have helped restore steel margins [31][32] - The company is focusing on refined management and cost reduction strategies, alongside potential asset injections from its parent group [32] Home Appliances - The home appliance industry is experiencing a decline in production and sales, particularly in the air conditioning and refrigerator segments, with significant year-on-year decreases reported [34] - The introduction of innovative products like Clawbot is expected to reshape the AI assistant market, enhancing consumer engagement and operational efficiency [35] - Companies like Ecovacs and Ninebot are projected to see substantial profit growth in 2025, driven by new product launches and increased market penetration [36]

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2026 年 2 月 1 日 有色调整点评 产业趋势不改，短期调整带来中长期布局时点 有色板块有望持续受益于金融属性与产业趋势的共振驱动，短期回调或成为 中长期布局时点。 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 ◼ 今日有色板块出现较大调整，受隔夜国际黄金、白银调整的影响，A 股和 港股的有色金属板块开盘大幅下跌，贵金属板块多股跌停。今日贵金属价 格出现显著回调，是短期技术面、宏观政策预期与市场情绪共振的结果， 其剧烈波动恰恰印证了当前趋势在，但短期波动急剧放大的市场特征。 ◼ 周五特朗普提名凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席，其政策主张偏鹰派， 主张缩减资产负债表。这扭转了市场对流动性持续宽松的预期，推动美元 走强，直接压制了以美元计价的贵金属。与此同时，铜 ...

数据来源：Wind ◎林玉莲 记者 徐锐 1月26日收盘，石油天然气板块上涨4.32%，领涨A股。最近一个多月以来，油气板块整体呈现震荡上行 趋势。综合各方面观点来看，本轮行情主要与海外地缘冲突加剧、寒潮带动美国天然气期货价格暴涨有 关。 从价格角度来看，油价短期小幅走高。1月23日，纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶 61.07美元；3月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格收于每桶65.88美元。 2026年以来国际油价走势 "继续关注中东局势发展，短期依然风险较大，一旦发生冲突，则原油价格可能上涨到每桶65美元甚至 70美元附近。"卓创资讯成品油分析师王雪琴对记者表示。 此外，不少机构近日提示，从经济周期来看，在康波萧条期内，按照商品周期的轮动规律，石油板块值 得重点关注。在这一阶段，主导国货币信用出现裂痕、全球地缘不确定性上升，往往会推动黄金率先上 涨；随后，各国战略补库需求会带动工业金属走强；而油价通常会紧随其后，迎来阶段性机会。 天然气方面，在2025年末国际市场结束了漫长跌势，迎来罕见强势反弹。Wind数据显示，截至1月26日 20时35分，NYMEX天然气期货合约上涨16.80.%，报6. ...

Group 1 - The resource sector is leading the market surge, with the oil and gas sector experiencing fluctuations, as evidenced by the oil and gas ETF Huatai (159309) rising over 3.8% and reaching a historical high, attracting over 25 million yuan in funds during the day [1] - The oil and gas ETF Huatai has seen continuous inflows, accumulating over 1 billion yuan in the past 10 days [1] - Major stocks in the oil and gas sector, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and Sinopec, have shown significant price increases, with CNOOC rising 6.34% and Sinopec increasing 4.07% [2][5] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, may threaten Middle Eastern oil exports, increasing regional risks [3] - Supply disruptions in Kazakhstan due to power distribution issues at major oil fields are expected to reduce oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which may support oil prices [4] - The current cold weather in the US is causing significant fluctuations in natural gas prices, with potential implications for other energy prices if the cold spell persists [4] Group 3 - The oil and gas sector is highlighted as a focus area due to the ongoing commodity supercycle, with energy prices expected to rise following other commodities [4] - The oil and gas ETF Huatai is designed to focus on the oil and gas industry chain, including exploration, equipment, refining, and transportation, emphasizing companies with quality reserves and low-cost advantages [9] - The index of the oil and gas ETF Huatai has shown strong performance over the past six months, one year, and three years, leading among similar indices [10]

Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in overseas natural gas prices has led to significant increases in oil and gas ETFs, with some rising over 3% [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Oil and gas stocks have seen a rise, with various ETFs tracking oil and gas resources showing gains of over 3% [1] - Natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by over 10% after a previous increase of 29%, reaching a price of $5.381 per million British thermal units [2] - Cumulatively, U.S. natural gas futures have increased by over 70% in the past four trading days [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The volatility in the U.S. natural gas market is driven by fluctuations in demand (weather, LNG exports) and supply (high domestic production) [2] - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, Russia, and Iran, are contributing to supply concerns and supporting oil price increases [3] - The oil market is currently experiencing historically low inventory levels, while global demand remains resilient, particularly in refining and aviation sectors [4] Group 3: Strategic Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of energy resource security, highlighting the need for enhanced domestic oil and gas supply capabilities [3] - Upstream companies are showing robust profitability, with a focus on capital expenditures aimed at increasing reserves and transitioning to low-carbon operations [5] - The oil and gas sector is characterized by low valuations, high dividends, and inflation resistance, making it an attractive asset allocation option in the current macroeconomic environment [5]

Core Viewpoint - The oil and petrochemical sector is experiencing a significant surge, with the overall sector up by 2.48% as of 10:42 AM on January 22, 2023, driven by various stocks hitting the limit-up price [1]. Group 1: Sector Performance - Several stocks in the oil and petrochemical sector, including Continental Oil and Gas, Blue Flame Holdings, PetroChina, and Runbei Aviation Technology, have reached their daily limit-up prices [1]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has increased by over 5%, while Sinopec has risen by over 3%, and PetroChina has seen a rise of 1.8% [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Western Securities notes that historical patterns during past Kondratiev wave downturns show a distinct rotation in commodity supercycles, with gold typically leading the price increases [1]. - The firm highlights that during Kondratiev downturns, geopolitical uncertainties tend to drive up industrial metal prices due to strategic stockpiling needs from major countries [1]. - Oil prices tend to lag behind other commodities due to supply flexibility and geopolitical disturbances, with agricultural products usually following oil price increases [1]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - Current strategic oil inventories in the U.S. and OECD have dropped to historically low levels, while the gold-oil ratio and copper-oil ratio have risen to historical highs, indicating that oil prices are undervalued relative to other commodities [1]. - A potential easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict by 2026 could lead to a significant increase in oil prices driven by strategic stockpiling demands [1].

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas sector in the A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by significant capital inflows and positive market sentiment towards oil-related ETFs [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 22, the oil and gas ETF Huatai (159309) surged over 4%, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains, with a total inflow of 12 million yuan on the day and over 50 million yuan in the past eight days [1]. - Major stocks in the oil sector, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and PetroChina, saw gains exceeding 5% and 4% respectively, indicating strong market performance [4]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Recent developments such as the first increase in retail price limits for refined oil in 2026 and significant advancements in domestic drilling operations have bolstered investor interest in the oil and gas sector [2]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, are contributing to supply concerns, which are expected to support oil prices in the near term [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Logic - The current geopolitical tensions are likely to boost oil prices, with ongoing sanctions and uncertainties in countries like Venezuela and Iran affecting supply expectations [3]. - The oil sector is seen as a potential beneficiary of the commodity supercycle, with energy prices expected to rise following trends in other commodities [3]. - The supply-demand dynamics are improving, with historical low inventory levels and reduced capital expenditure in oil supply over the past decade [9]. - The oil and gas sector offers high dividend yields, with the Huatai ETF showing a 12-month dividend yield of 3.83%, making it an attractive investment option [9].