2026 十大研判 20260105 2026 年 A 股市场将在康波萧条期迎来繁荣，大盘指数大概率创新高。 建议关注有色金属、新消费/大众消费、高端制造以及国产算力链条。 Q&A 2026 年中国经济和股市的核心逻辑是什么？ 2026 年中国经济和股市的核心逻辑是人民币汇率升值驱动，实体部门的现金 流量表已经改善，资产负债表也有望得到修复。随着美联储重启降息，跨境资 本将加速回流中国，这将带来 PPI 和 CPI 相继走出通缩。2025 年只是牛市的 前菜，而 2026 年将迎来估值和盈利的戴维斯双击。预计美联储可能会进行量 化宽松（QE），而中国央行也可能实施大规模化债政策，从而快速修复实体部 门的资产负债表。 为什么认为 2026 年是中国回归繁荣的起点？ 2018 年，中国人均 GDP 突破 1 万美元，正式进入工业化成熟期。这一阶段类 似于 1,945 年的美国和 1975 年的日本，制造业拥有强劲的对外出口能力，可 以赚取大量国民财富并改善内需消费景气。因此，从 2019 年开始，中国就进 入了康波萧条期作为追赶国的繁荣期。然而，由于美联储激进加息导致跨境资 本外流，以及房价暴跌导致居民和企业部门 ...

Group 1: Leasing Industry Overview - The leasing industry in China is categorized into financial leasing and commercial financing leasing, with financial leasing companies being regulated by the National Financial Regulatory Administration [6] - The main business models are direct leasing and sale-leaseback, which cater to different financing needs of enterprises [6] - The industry has entered a phase of high-quality development since 2018, with stable growth in financial leasing and domestic commercial leasing, while foreign leasing companies have seen a decline [7] Group 2: Key Players and Market Dynamics - The leasing business is capital-intensive, with net interest income being the primary revenue source, and asset scale reflecting differentiated strategic layouts among companies [8] - Leading companies like Guoyin Financial Leasing and Far East Horizon maintain their positions through diversified industry layouts and national service networks, while others focus on niche markets such as aviation and microfinance [8] Group 3: Weigao Blood Purification Company Analysis - Weigao Blood Purification is a leading player in the domestic blood purification industry, with a comprehensive product matrix including dialysis machines and accessories [11] - The company has shown steady growth, with projected EPS of 1.08, 1.20, and 1.32 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11] - The blood purification market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 21.52% from 2023 to 2027, driven by increasing ESRD patient numbers and improving healthcare coverage [12] Group 4: Market Trends and Growth Potential - The demand for blood purification products is rising due to a rapid increase in ESRD patients and enhanced medical payment capabilities [12] - Weigao's market share in key products like blood dialysis machines and accessories is strong, with 32.5%, 24.6%, and 31.8% market shares respectively [13] - The company is expanding its business through acquisitions, such as Weigao Purui, to enhance its position in the biopharmaceutical upstream sector [13] Group 5: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for December showed a seasonal rebound, indicating synchronized expansion in production and demand, with a PMI of 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [15] - The non-manufacturing business activity index also rose to 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery in the service sector [21] - The construction industry saw a significant rebound, returning to expansion territory due to favorable weather and increased construction activity [21] Group 6: Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from a declining US dollar index and a recovering Chinese economy, positioning it as a favorable offshore market for capital [24] - The market is anticipated to experience valuation expansion driven by global liquidity and improved fundamentals in China, potentially leading to a "Davis Triple Play" scenario [29] - The outlook for the Hang Seng Technology Index remains positive, with expectations of significant growth in consumer-sensitive sectors like internet and new energy vehicles [29]

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 人民币升值,如何引领本轮牛市?20260104 人民币汇率升值对中国经济的影响是什么? 人民币汇率升值是中国在当前康波萧条期走向繁荣的关键契机。人民币升值可以 说是 2026年中国走向繁荣的起点,这是一个核心指标。我们预判 2026年及未来 几年内,人民币汇率有望相继升值突破前高的 6.8,甚至达到6.3。人民币汇率 中长期升值趋势主要源于中国强劲的对外出口能力,这种能力根植于 2018年前 后中国进入工业化成熟期。工业化成熟期国家通常具有强劲的对外出口能力,从 而带来本国货币中长期升值趋势。这一点在 1,945年后的美国和1975年后的日 本都得到了验证。 争 ケー · 人民币汇率有望突破前高,长期升值趋势源于中国工业化成熟期带来的强 劲出口能力,类似于美国 1,945年后和日本 1975年后经历,出口扩张带 动本币升值。 当前人民币升值不仅由企业结汇驱动,更受益于过去几年贬值期间流出的 ● 约 16 万亿资金回流,即使未来结汇减少,升值趋势仍将持续。 2026 年或成中国经济转折点,受益于美联储降息带来的跨境资本回流和 ● 可能的中国央行 QE 政 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [6]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a divergence between strong expectations and weak realities, with production data quality declining since May 2023, impacting demand assessments [2]. - China's apparent steel consumption increased by 3.6% year-on-year from January to November, but November alone saw a decline of 3.3% [2]. - The net export of steel reached 10.218 million tons from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, driven by strong manufacturing exports [3]. - Domestic policies are shifting focus towards basic economic fundamentals, with an emphasis on proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing [4]. Summary by Sections Production and Consumption - In November 2025, crude steel production was 6.987 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, while the average daily production was 2.329 million tons, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.3% [8]. - The apparent consumption of steel in China for the first eleven months of 2025 grew by 3.6% year-on-year, with a notable decline in November [2]. Exports and Imports - Steel exports for January to November 2025 totaled 10.772 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [8]. - The import of iron ore in November was 11.054 million tons, up 8.5% year-on-year, while cumulative imports for the first eleven months increased by 1.4% [8]. Policy and Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the focus of domestic policies will increasingly center on structural adjustments, with an expectation of continued fiscal easing and reforms [4]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in undervalued companies within the steel sector, such as Huazhong Steel and Baosteel, which are expected to benefit from upcoming economic cycles [4].

既然旧的"效率优先"全球化逻辑不灵了，买房致富的路径也失 效了，那么，钱该往哪里去？ 作者：郑晨烨 封图：受访者供图 "如果商品不能越过国界，那么军队就要越过国界。"11月19日，在2025年第九届中欧国际工商 学院深圳论坛上，兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委引用了法国经济学家巴斯夏的一句名言，来描述当 下的全球贸易局势。 他认为，全球经济正处于"康波萧条期"，老的技术潜力耗尽，新的技术还没长大，存量博弈导致 多边合作被零和思维取代。这种状态，就像科幻小说《三体》里的"乱纪元"，行星围着三颗恒星 转，轨道已经算不清楚了。 这种"乱"，在数据上表现得更直接。野村证券中国首席经济学家陆挺在现场算了一笔账：过去五 年，中国出口年均增长率接近8%，但在未来的"十五五"期间，这个数字可能会回落到3%至5%。 陆挺同时表示，不能只看新经济，而不管被称为"老登"的房地产行业，虽然房地产不再是增长支 柱，但它留下的债务链条和历史遗留问题，仍是未来五年中国宏观经济不得不面对的负累。 既然旧的"效率优先"全球化逻辑不灵了，买房致富的路径也失效了，那么，钱该往哪里去？ "要去大海里打鲸鱼，不要在烂泥塘里挖泥鳅。"深圳东方港湾投资管理股份 ...

经济观察报记者 郑晨烨 "如果商品不能越过国界，那么军队就要越过国界。"11月19日，在2025年第九届中欧国际工商学院深圳论坛上，兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委引用了法国经 济学家巴斯夏的一句名言，来描述当下的全球贸易局势。 他认为，全球经济正处于"康波萧条期"，老的技术潜力耗尽，新的技术还没长大，存量博弈导致多边合作被零和思维取代。这种状态，就像科幻小说《三 体》里的"乱纪元"，行星围着三颗恒星转，轨道已经算不清楚了。 这种"乱"，在数据上表现得更直接。野村证券中国首席经济学家陆挺在现场算了一笔账：过去五年，中国出口年均增长率接近8%，但在未来的"十五五"期 间，这个数字可能会回落到3%至5%。 陆挺同时表示，不能只看新经济，而不管被称为"老登"的房地产行业，虽然房地产不再是增长支柱，但它留下的债务链条和历史遗留问题，仍是未来五年中 国宏观经济不得不面对的负累。 既然旧的"效率优先"全球化逻辑不灵了，买房致富的路径也失效了，那么，钱该往哪里去？ "要去大海里打鲸鱼，不要在烂泥塘里挖泥鳅。"深圳东方港湾投资管理股份有限公司（下称"东方港湾"）董事长但斌在现场给出了他的答案。在他看来，面 对这种变局，选择比努力更 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the steel industry, including Xining Special Steel, Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a recovery in profits, with black metal smelting and rolling industries turning profitable, achieving a total profit of 973.4 billion yuan from January to September, compared to a loss of 341 billion yuan in the same period last year [4][13]. - The report highlights the importance of supply-side policies and structural adjustments in the industry, indicating that the long-term fundamentals of steel are expected to improve due to demand recovery and supply-side reforms [4][13]. - The report emphasizes the financial attributes of metals, particularly precious metals, as a counter to the weakening credit of dominant currencies, suggesting a shift in wealth storage methods [2]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production has decreased by 35,000 tons to 2.363 million tons, with the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces at 88.6%, down 1.3 percentage points week-on-week [3][12][18]. - The total inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 2.6% week-on-week, with steel mill inventories declining more than social inventories [24][26]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has increased by 2.6% week-on-week, with rebar demand growing more than hot-rolled demand [40][50]. - The average weekly transaction volume of construction steel has increased by 3.7% [42]. Price and Profit Analysis - The comprehensive steel price index has risen by 1.1% week-on-week, indicating a strengthening of steel prices due to improving industry fundamentals [72]. - The current spot prices for rebar in Beijing and Shanghai are 3,200 yuan/ton and 3,210 yuan/ton, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.9% and 0.6% [72]. Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and Xining Special Steel, all of which are positioned in the low valuation area with strong safety margins [2][4][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" for several key companies [6]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a slight decline in daily molten iron production, with an average of 241.5 thousand tons, down by 0.3 thousand tons [12]. - Total steel inventory is showing seasonal accumulation post the National Day holiday, with a week-on-week increase of 8.7% [24]. - Apparent consumption of steel products has decreased seasonally, with a notable drop in rebar demand [37]. - Iron ore prices have risen, influenced by changes in shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil [46]. - Steel prices are stable with slight improvements in immediate profit margins, indicating a potential for continued industry recovery [70]. Summary by Sections Supply - Daily molten iron production has slightly decreased to 241.5 thousand tons, with a decline in rebar and hot-rolled coil production [12][17]. Inventory - Total steel inventory has increased by 8.7% week-on-week, with steel mill inventories rising more than social inventories [24][26]. Demand - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products has decreased by 17.0% week-on-week, with rebar consumption down by 36.5% [48][37]. Raw Materials - Iron ore prices have increased, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $107.4 per ton, up by 3.4% week-on-week [58]. Prices and Profits - The comprehensive steel price index remains stable at 122.7, with slight improvements in immediate profit margins for long-process steel products [70][71].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a divergence in sentiment, with optimism for technological innovation and concerns about market volatility [1] - The macroeconomic environment in China is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for a gradual economic rebound and a potential end to deflationary pressures [4][5] - The AI and robotics sectors are highlighted as key areas for investment, with a global resonance in the AI industry cycle expected to create significant market opportunities [5][8] Group 2 - The government has introduced supportive policies for the AI industry, establishing a long-term development direction, making technology the primary investment theme in the A-share market [8] - Investment opportunities in the AI sector are categorized into four segments: overseas computing power, domestic computing power, edge AI hardware, and AI application software, each with different investment dynamics [8][9] - The domestic computing power segment is particularly promising, focusing on AI-GPU and AI-ASIC chips, which are expected to see significant value growth [9] Group 3 - The basic chemical industry is viewed positively, especially in the agricultural and fine chemical sectors, with signs of fundamental improvement and a shift towards larger market capitalizations [12][13] - The current market cycle is characterized as a "Kondratiev depression," suggesting a potential bull market for gold and a new technological revolution [12][13] Group 4 - The bond market is currently in a phase of adjustment rather than reversal, with potential buying opportunities expected later in the year [15][16] - The bond market's weakness is attributed to risk appetite and the low absolute yield of bonds, with a focus on maintaining a defensive position in the portfolio [19] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the consumer sector, is expected to provide excess returns due to increased policy support and liquidity [23][24] - New consumer brands are creating differentiated products that meet emerging demands, contributing to strong growth in the consumer sector [24] Group 6 - The market is transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking, with expectations for external demand recovery supported by anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S. [26] - The technology sector and industries benefiting from anti-involution policies are recommended for continued focus, including solar energy, lithium battery materials, and chemical manufacturing [26] Group 7 - The market is expected to experience structural fluctuations and overall volatility, but the long-term upward trend remains intact [30][31] - Investors are advised to adjust their portfolios rather than reduce positions in response to market volatility, focusing on high-risk-reward opportunities [31] Group 8 - The current bull market is believed to be just beginning, driven by the certainty of the AI era and the emergence of new economic engines in China [32] - Asset allocation strategies should favor new productive forces while reducing exposure to traditional economies [32]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on long-term investment opportunities amidst short-term market fluctuations, particularly highlighting the potential in AI and technology sectors as key drivers for future growth [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a "slow bull" trend, with opportunities for valuation and performance recovery in index-weighted stocks, particularly in AI and technology sectors [3][4]. - Domestic macroeconomic policies are anticipated to end deflation and stimulate economic recovery, providing a favorable environment for traditional industries and cyclical stocks [3]. - The AI industry is viewed as a global resonance, with significant market opportunities projected in the next 5-10 years due to technological revolutions [4]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - The AI investment sector is categorized into four parts: overseas computing power, domestic computing power, edge AI hardware, and AI application software, each with distinct investment directions [7]. - The semiconductor sector, particularly AI-GPU and AI-ASIC chips, is highlighted as having the most significant growth potential within domestic computing power [8]. - AI application software is entering a realization phase, with strong performance expected in sectors like healthcare and finance, as well as productivity tools and enterprise services [8][9]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The basic chemical industry, particularly in agricultural chemicals and fine chemicals, is viewed positively, with signs of fundamental improvement and a shift from small to mid-large cap companies [11]. - Gold, coal, and oil transportation assets are also considered valuable due to their "anti-fragile" characteristics, likely to gain premium in the current market environment [12]. Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is currently in a phase of adjustment rather than reversal, with potential buying opportunities expected later in the year [16][18]. - The market faces challenges from seasonal increases in repurchase rates and volatility, necessitating careful monitoring of monetary policy actions [18]. Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategy - The asset allocation strategy suggests a low allocation to traditional economies while favoring new productive forces, particularly in AI and related sectors [31][32]. - The current market conditions indicate a shift towards structural adjustments rather than reducing positions, with a focus on high-potential investments [29].