既然旧的"效率优先"全球化逻辑不灵了，买房致富的路径也失 效了，那么，钱该往哪里去？ 作者：郑晨烨 封图：受访者供图 "如果商品不能越过国界，那么军队就要越过国界。"11月19日，在2025年第九届中欧国际工商 学院深圳论坛上，兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委引用了法国经济学家巴斯夏的一句名言，来描述当 下的全球贸易局势。 他认为，全球经济正处于"康波萧条期"，老的技术潜力耗尽，新的技术还没长大，存量博弈导致 多边合作被零和思维取代。这种状态，就像科幻小说《三体》里的"乱纪元"，行星围着三颗恒星 转，轨道已经算不清楚了。 这种"乱"，在数据上表现得更直接。野村证券中国首席经济学家陆挺在现场算了一笔账：过去五 年，中国出口年均增长率接近8%，但在未来的"十五五"期间，这个数字可能会回落到3%至5%。 陆挺同时表示，不能只看新经济，而不管被称为"老登"的房地产行业，虽然房地产不再是增长支 柱，但它留下的债务链条和历史遗留问题，仍是未来五年中国宏观经济不得不面对的负累。 既然旧的"效率优先"全球化逻辑不灵了，买房致富的路径也失效了，那么，钱该往哪里去？ "要去大海里打鲸鱼，不要在烂泥塘里挖泥鳅。"深圳东方港湾投资管理股份 ...

经济观察报记者 郑晨烨 "如果商品不能越过国界，那么军队就要越过国界。"11月19日，在2025年第九届中欧国际工商学院深圳论坛上，兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委引用了法国经 济学家巴斯夏的一句名言，来描述当下的全球贸易局势。 他认为，全球经济正处于"康波萧条期"，老的技术潜力耗尽，新的技术还没长大，存量博弈导致多边合作被零和思维取代。这种状态，就像科幻小说《三 体》里的"乱纪元"，行星围着三颗恒星转，轨道已经算不清楚了。 这种"乱"，在数据上表现得更直接。野村证券中国首席经济学家陆挺在现场算了一笔账：过去五年，中国出口年均增长率接近8%，但在未来的"十五五"期 间，这个数字可能会回落到3%至5%。 陆挺同时表示，不能只看新经济，而不管被称为"老登"的房地产行业，虽然房地产不再是增长支柱，但它留下的债务链条和历史遗留问题，仍是未来五年中 国宏观经济不得不面对的负累。 既然旧的"效率优先"全球化逻辑不灵了，买房致富的路径也失效了，那么，钱该往哪里去？ "要去大海里打鲸鱼，不要在烂泥塘里挖泥鳅。"深圳东方港湾投资管理股份有限公司（下称"东方港湾"）董事长但斌在现场给出了他的答案。在他看来，面 对这种变局，选择比努力更 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the steel industry, including Xining Special Steel, Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a recovery in profits, with black metal smelting and rolling industries turning profitable, achieving a total profit of 973.4 billion yuan from January to September, compared to a loss of 341 billion yuan in the same period last year [4][13]. - The report highlights the importance of supply-side policies and structural adjustments in the industry, indicating that the long-term fundamentals of steel are expected to improve due to demand recovery and supply-side reforms [4][13]. - The report emphasizes the financial attributes of metals, particularly precious metals, as a counter to the weakening credit of dominant currencies, suggesting a shift in wealth storage methods [2]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production has decreased by 35,000 tons to 2.363 million tons, with the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces at 88.6%, down 1.3 percentage points week-on-week [3][12][18]. - The total inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 2.6% week-on-week, with steel mill inventories declining more than social inventories [24][26]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has increased by 2.6% week-on-week, with rebar demand growing more than hot-rolled demand [40][50]. - The average weekly transaction volume of construction steel has increased by 3.7% [42]. Price and Profit Analysis - The comprehensive steel price index has risen by 1.1% week-on-week, indicating a strengthening of steel prices due to improving industry fundamentals [72]. - The current spot prices for rebar in Beijing and Shanghai are 3,200 yuan/ton and 3,210 yuan/ton, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.9% and 0.6% [72]. Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and Xining Special Steel, all of which are positioned in the low valuation area with strong safety margins [2][4][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" for several key companies [6]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a slight decline in daily molten iron production, with an average of 241.5 thousand tons, down by 0.3 thousand tons [12]. - Total steel inventory is showing seasonal accumulation post the National Day holiday, with a week-on-week increase of 8.7% [24]. - Apparent consumption of steel products has decreased seasonally, with a notable drop in rebar demand [37]. - Iron ore prices have risen, influenced by changes in shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil [46]. - Steel prices are stable with slight improvements in immediate profit margins, indicating a potential for continued industry recovery [70]. Summary by Sections Supply - Daily molten iron production has slightly decreased to 241.5 thousand tons, with a decline in rebar and hot-rolled coil production [12][17]. Inventory - Total steel inventory has increased by 8.7% week-on-week, with steel mill inventories rising more than social inventories [24][26]. Demand - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products has decreased by 17.0% week-on-week, with rebar consumption down by 36.5% [48][37]. Raw Materials - Iron ore prices have increased, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $107.4 per ton, up by 3.4% week-on-week [58]. Prices and Profits - The comprehensive steel price index remains stable at 122.7, with slight improvements in immediate profit margins for long-process steel products [70][71].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a divergence in sentiment, with optimism for technological innovation and concerns about market volatility [1] - The macroeconomic environment in China is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for a gradual economic rebound and a potential end to deflationary pressures [4][5] - The AI and robotics sectors are highlighted as key areas for investment, with a global resonance in the AI industry cycle expected to create significant market opportunities [5][8] Group 2 - The government has introduced supportive policies for the AI industry, establishing a long-term development direction, making technology the primary investment theme in the A-share market [8] - Investment opportunities in the AI sector are categorized into four segments: overseas computing power, domestic computing power, edge AI hardware, and AI application software, each with different investment dynamics [8][9] - The domestic computing power segment is particularly promising, focusing on AI-GPU and AI-ASIC chips, which are expected to see significant value growth [9] Group 3 - The basic chemical industry is viewed positively, especially in the agricultural and fine chemical sectors, with signs of fundamental improvement and a shift towards larger market capitalizations [12][13] - The current market cycle is characterized as a "Kondratiev depression," suggesting a potential bull market for gold and a new technological revolution [12][13] Group 4 - The bond market is currently in a phase of adjustment rather than reversal, with potential buying opportunities expected later in the year [15][16] - The bond market's weakness is attributed to risk appetite and the low absolute yield of bonds, with a focus on maintaining a defensive position in the portfolio [19] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the consumer sector, is expected to provide excess returns due to increased policy support and liquidity [23][24] - New consumer brands are creating differentiated products that meet emerging demands, contributing to strong growth in the consumer sector [24] Group 6 - The market is transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking, with expectations for external demand recovery supported by anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S. [26] - The technology sector and industries benefiting from anti-involution policies are recommended for continued focus, including solar energy, lithium battery materials, and chemical manufacturing [26] Group 7 - The market is expected to experience structural fluctuations and overall volatility, but the long-term upward trend remains intact [30][31] - Investors are advised to adjust their portfolios rather than reduce positions in response to market volatility, focusing on high-risk-reward opportunities [31] Group 8 - The current bull market is believed to be just beginning, driven by the certainty of the AI era and the emergence of new economic engines in China [32] - Asset allocation strategies should favor new productive forces while reducing exposure to traditional economies [32]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on long-term investment opportunities amidst short-term market fluctuations, particularly highlighting the potential in AI and technology sectors as key drivers for future growth [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a "slow bull" trend, with opportunities for valuation and performance recovery in index-weighted stocks, particularly in AI and technology sectors [3][4]. - Domestic macroeconomic policies are anticipated to end deflation and stimulate economic recovery, providing a favorable environment for traditional industries and cyclical stocks [3]. - The AI industry is viewed as a global resonance, with significant market opportunities projected in the next 5-10 years due to technological revolutions [4]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - The AI investment sector is categorized into four parts: overseas computing power, domestic computing power, edge AI hardware, and AI application software, each with distinct investment directions [7]. - The semiconductor sector, particularly AI-GPU and AI-ASIC chips, is highlighted as having the most significant growth potential within domestic computing power [8]. - AI application software is entering a realization phase, with strong performance expected in sectors like healthcare and finance, as well as productivity tools and enterprise services [8][9]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The basic chemical industry, particularly in agricultural chemicals and fine chemicals, is viewed positively, with signs of fundamental improvement and a shift from small to mid-large cap companies [11]. - Gold, coal, and oil transportation assets are also considered valuable due to their "anti-fragile" characteristics, likely to gain premium in the current market environment [12]. Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is currently in a phase of adjustment rather than reversal, with potential buying opportunities expected later in the year [16][18]. - The market faces challenges from seasonal increases in repurchase rates and volatility, necessitating careful monitoring of monetary policy actions [18]. Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategy - The asset allocation strategy suggests a low allocation to traditional economies while favoring new productive forces, particularly in AI and related sectors [31][32]. - The current market conditions indicate a shift towards structural adjustments rather than reducing positions, with a focus on high-potential investments [29].

Fund Overview - The fund is named Penghua China 50 Open-Ended Securities Investment Fund, managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd. and custodied by Bank of Communications Co., Ltd. [1] - The fund aims for long-term stable appreciation of assets by focusing on value investment in fundamentally sound and liquid stocks that are relatively undervalued [1][2]. Financial Performance - The fund reported a profit of CNY 85,564,438.25 for the period from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025, with a net asset value of CNY 954,713,778.90 at the end of the reporting period [3][12]. - The fund's net asset value per share was CNY 1.879, with a cumulative net value growth rate of 799.31% since inception [3][12]. - The fund's profit distribution at the end of the reporting period was CNY 446,713,056.87, translating to a profit per share of CNY 0.8794 [3][12]. Investment Strategy - The fund employs a mixed investment strategy, focusing on both stocks and bonds, with an emphasis on long-term holding and moderate trading based on market conditions [1][2]. - The investment strategy includes a top-down approach to macroeconomic analysis and a bottom-up approach for industry-specific opportunities, particularly in sectors like precious metals and chemicals [5][6]. Market Context - The fund's performance occurred against a backdrop of increased market volatility and structural opportunities, with notable sectors being AI computing, innovative pharmaceuticals, and robotics [5][6]. - The fund manager anticipates a potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to increased global liquidity [6]. Compliance and Governance - The fund management strictly adheres to relevant laws and regulations, ensuring compliance in all operational aspects, including fair trading practices [4][10]. - The fund's valuation processes are managed by a dedicated valuation committee, ensuring transparency and accuracy in asset valuation [7][8].

Group 1 - The fund aims for long-term stable appreciation of assets by focusing on value investment in fundamentally sound and liquid stocks that are relatively undervalued [2][3] - The investment strategy includes a proactive approach to bond investments to reduce overall portfolio volatility and seek excess returns, while stock investments focus on selecting individual stocks for long-term holding with appropriate tactical adjustments [3][4] - The fund's performance benchmark is a combination of the Shanghai 180 Index and Shenzhen 100 Index, reflecting a balanced risk-return profile [4][5] Group 2 - As of the end of the reporting period, the fund's net asset value growth rate was 6.70%, outperforming the benchmark growth rate of 1.19% [12] - The fund's total shares at the end of the reporting period amounted to 508,000,722.03 shares, indicating a decrease from the previous period due to net redemptions [16] - The fund's investment portfolio is heavily weighted towards the manufacturing sector, which constitutes 53.92% of the total assets, followed by mining at 29.91% [14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish stance on stocks and commodities in the long - term, driven by global fiscal support for the economy and the shift in monetary policy. In the short - term, it is necessary to focus on the marginal effect of fiscal policy in the third quarter, the Politburo meeting at the end of July, and whether the US will rally other countries against China. [73] - There is a trend of asset spillover, including US assets flowing to non - US and alternative assets, and Chinese fixed - income assets flowing to low - volatility stocks (banks and neutral stocks). The "asset shortage" has shifted towards a better match between liquidity and assets, and stocks and commodities tend to move in tandem. [73] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Fiscal Dominance in the Kondratieff Winter - Fiscal policy determines the economic performance differences among global countries in the past few years due to high leverage ratios in the household and corporate sectors. All countries are expanding fiscal spending. [13] - China's exports have been strong, as shown by the economic formula \(Y = C + I + G+(X - M)=C + S+T\), and \(M - X=(I - S)+(G - T)\). [13] - Fiscal spending shows a "front - loaded high, back - loaded low" pattern this year. The remaining quota in the second half of 2024 was close to 8 trillion, while in 2025 it is only close to 6 trillion. Local government bond net financing has been high, reaching 4.6 trillion, with replacement bond issuance exceeding 1.8 trillion and a nearly 90% issuance progress. In the third quarter, special bond issuance is expected to be 2 trillion, lower than 2.56 trillion in 2024 and close to 1.98 trillion in 2023. [16] - The 300 - billion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bond is used to stimulate consumption. It has various subsidy policies for home appliances, new energy vehicles, and other fields, with different subsidy standards for different regions. Some localities have faced issues such as running out of funds, and future adjustments will shift from "universal" to "precise" regulation. [17] 3.2. Why Involution? Why Anti - Involution? - Involution refers to the serious deviation of production factor prices. The current supply - side reform emphasizes "quality improvement" rather than "quantity reduction" and is aimed at long - term high - quality development, which is different from the previous one. [47] - In June, the year - on - year CPI increased by 0.1%, and the PPI decreased by 3.6%, with the PPI - CPI gap continuing to widen. Fiscal policy has addressed the "quantity" issue, and there is no intention to use monetary policy to solve the "price" problem. [51] - Most industries show "quantity increase" but "price decrease." The real estate market has shifted from "price - for - quantity" to a situation of both quantity and price decline. [52][53] - The trade war has compressed profits and costs in an economy that relies on foreign trade. Coal and electricity prices have decreased to benefit downstream industries. [57][59] - There are signs of active inventory replenishment in industrial enterprises, but inventory cycle prediction should not be dogmatic. The commodity index leads the PPI by two months and seems to have bottomed out, and the PMI also shows signs of improvement. [65][66][68] 3.3. Some Conclusions on Major Asset Classes - **Stocks**: The dumbbell strategy is still applicable. Although the market is bullish, it is not recommended to chase high prices at present, especially for small - and micro - cap stocks. [84] - **Commodities**: - The bullish sentiment in the current round may last until the end of this month or early next month. There are many opportunities in different sectors, but no comprehensive ones. Volatility will increase after the release of global liquidity. [85][88] - Precious metals are worth long - term allocation to hedge against currency credit risks, but they need an "asset shortage" scenario to continue rising. [87] - Base metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin have supply disruptions and long - term supply shortages, with positive demand prospects driven by technological trends. However, they lack short - term drivers. New - energy metals like lithium carbonate and industrial silicon are in a supply - demand surplus, and it is recommended to use range - trading strategies. [87] - The black metal sector is in an overall supply - demand surplus, and it is advisable to observe supply disruptions and demand verification. Iron ore is a good long - position after a decline, while coal and soda ash are suitable for short - positions after an increase. [87] - In the energy and chemical sector, attention should be paid to the impact of raw materials on the overall valuation. With excess supply of oil and coal and a shortage of gas, the profit of downstream chemical products is difficult to expand under the current situation of low demand and ongoing large - scale capacity expansion. [87]

Macroeconomic Outlook - The U.S. trade and fiscal policies are expected to become clearer in Q3 2025 after significant fluctuations in H1 2025, with potential easing of trade policies and a new budget coordination bill possibly being implemented by July[2] - The U.S. inventory cycle is shifting towards active destocking, with the impact of tariffs on trade relations likely to be permanent, reducing the likelihood of large-scale replenishment by U.S. companies[2] Capital Expenditure Cycle - The global capital expenditure cycle, which began in 2021, is anticipated to enter a downward phase in H2 2025, with overall capital expenditure in 2024 expected to decline slightly compared to 2023[3] - The U.S. capital expenditure increase is nearing its peak, as evidenced by high import levels of water and electricity infrastructure materials in Q3 2024[3] U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market has shown a recovery since mid-April 2025, with ongoing momentum supported by advancements in artificial intelligence and favorable economic policies from the "Great Beauty Act"[3] - The valuation of U.S. stocks is expected to continue rising, even if the risk-free interest rate does not decline significantly[4] U.S. Bond Market - The space for interest rate cuts is constrained, with U.S. Treasury yields unlikely to decline significantly; however, stablecoins may facilitate liquidity release[4] - The U.S. is likely to maintain a weak dollar to alleviate the concentration of U.S. assets globally, which could help mitigate the risk of asset bubbles[6] A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to see an upward trend in July 2025, driven by fiscal stimulus and resilient consumer demand, despite anticipated export pressures[7] - The median increase in stock prices for the first half of 2025 is around 5%, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential for further gains[8] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 39 cities have seen a year-on-year decline of 14% as of late June 2025, while second-hand home sales have shown a smaller decline of 1%[27] - The inventory cycle for unsold properties has lengthened, indicating a potential slowdown in the real estate market[27] Investment Strategy - The banking sector is projected to experience a slight increase in net profit by 1.3% in 2025, with revenue growth expected to stabilize around 0%[25] - Long-term investment strategies should focus on balanced allocations across recovery, growth, and dividend-paying banks, given the current valuation discounts in the banking sector[25]