1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Consider trial long positions. The Iran - US situation is volatile, with many uncontrollable factors. There are still recession trades and liquidity crises, and the main war - participating countries have significant differences. Radical long - term investors can watch for the bottom. [1] - Silver: Mainly on the sidelines. Short - term trading focuses on inflation and stagflation, and silver is under pressure. The fundamental factors are ignored, and the end of the Iran situation is unknown. [1] - Copper: Range - bound. The Middle - East situation may worsen, the US dollar index is high, suppressing copper prices. However, domestic copper social inventory is decreasing, and demand is picking up. In the long - term, the outlook for copper is positive. [1][6] - Zinc: Rebound. The Middle - East situation may deteriorate, overseas smelters may cut production, and zinc inventories at home and abroad are decreasing. [1][9] - Lead: Rebound under pressure. The lead market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, with excessive inventory accumulation in the first quarter and poor downstream demand. [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure. Overseas tin ore supply is gradually recovering, and downstream orders are relatively flat. [1] - Aluminum: Rebound. There is an expectation of tightened bauxite supply overseas, and electrolytic aluminum in the Middle - East may cut production. Domestic inventory is high, but downstream processing enterprise operating rates are rising. [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure. The issue of Indonesian export ore tax continues to cause disruptions, domestic nickel inventory is high, and downstream stainless - steel inventory is accumulating due to poor consumption. [1] - Industrial silicon: Pressured to decline. Industry meetings bring anti -内卷 policy expectations, but the supply - demand imbalance restricts price elasticity. [1] - Polysilicon: Decline. In April, polysilicon production resumes, but downstream silicon wafer production is reduced, and the industry is in a state of inventory accumulation. [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level operation. Total inventory is slightly increasing, and production recovery makes price increases difficult. There are uncertainties in the supply side, and long positions can be closed at high prices. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver showed small fluctuations. For example, SHFE gold rose 1.62% to 1014.88, and COMEX gold rose 0.42% to 4540. SHFE silver rose 1.25% to 17707, and COMEX silver rose 0.59% to 70. [2] - **Basic Logic**: The Iran war situation has escalated, and Powell has soothed the market. The core factors suppressing precious metals are the rise of the US dollar and US bond yields, the outflow of ETF funds, and concerns about the Fed maintaining high interest rates. However, the four underlying logics of the long - term bull market in precious metals remain unchanged. [3] - **Strategy**: Gold should pay attention to the support around 970 in the short - term, and silver should pay attention to the performance around 17000. [3] Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices showed a range - bound trend. The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 95350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. LME copper rose 0.44% to 12195 US dollars/ton. [4] - **Industry Logic**: Global copper ore supply is tight, copper concentrate processing fees are - 69 US dollars/ton. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased, but it is expected to increase in March. The safe passage of the Strait of Hormuz is uncertain, which may affect copper smelting. After the sharp decline in copper prices, downstream demand has recovered, and domestic social inventory has decreased. [5] - **Strategy**: Copper will be range - bound, waiting for the Middle - East situation to become clear. In the short - term, the Shanghai copper range is [94500, 97500] yuan/ton, and the LME copper range is [12000, 12500] US dollars/ton. [6] Zinc - **Market Performance**: Zinc prices continued to rebound. The Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.98% to 23650 yuan/ton, and LME zinc rose 2.43% to 3182 US dollars/ton. [7] - **Industry Logic**: Global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. Some domestic smelters have cut production, and downstream consumption has improved. The Middle - East situation has affected energy prices, and overseas smelters may cut production. [8] - **Strategy**: Zinc prices will continue to rebound. In the long - term, resource protectionism may affect supply. The Shanghai zinc range is [23000, 24000] yuan/ton, and the LME zinc range is [3100, 3300] US dollars/ton. [9] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices rebounded. The LME aluminum closing price was 3441.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.78%, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract rose 3.30% to 24725 yuan/ton. [10] - **Industry Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in 2026 is weak. In the Middle - East, short - term supply is disrupted, and new electrolytic aluminum projects are ramping up. Domestic aluminum inventory is high, but downstream processing enterprise operating rates are rising. The alumina industry has an oversupply situation, and inventory is high. [12] - **Strategy**: Temporarily observe the Shanghai aluminum market, paying attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [23000 - 25500] yuan/ton. [13] Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices rebounded under pressure. The LME nickel closing price was 17350 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.78%, and the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 0.01% to 137120 yuan/ton. [14] - **Industry Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in 2026 is weak. Indonesia may adjust nickel ore production quotas, but the expectation of tightened supply is weakened. Domestic pure nickel inventory is increasing, and the stainless - steel market is in the peak - season transition stage, with inventory slightly increasing. [16] - **Strategy**: Temporarily observe the nickel and stainless - steel markets, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless - steel inventory changes. The nickel main contract operating range is [125000 - 145000] yuan/ton. [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened higher and maintained a strong operation, rising more than 4%. [19] - **Industry Logic**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and total inventory is slightly increasing. Domestic mica mine mining license issues and overseas lithium ore policies may affect supply. Although new - energy vehicle sales are poor, material production is still full - capacity, which may support lithium carbonate prices. [20] - **Strategy**: Close long positions at high prices in the range of [165000 - 175000] yuan/ton. [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Attention for trial long positions [1] - Silver: Wait - and - see [1] - Copper: Range - bound [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Decline [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound under pressure [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation in the Middle East is complex and changeable, which has a significant impact on the prices of various metals. The short - term price trends of metals are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions. Long - term trends are also influenced by factors like resource supply and demand for new energy [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Core view**: Gold is recommended for trial long positions, and silver is advised to wait - and - see. The short - term rebound of gold and silver may be due to the temporary relief of the liquidity crisis. The long - term bullish logic of precious metals remains unchanged, but the short - term is affected by factors such as the rise of the US dollar and US bond yields, and the outflow of ETF funds [1][2]. - **Market data**: SHFE gold rose 0.27% to 998.66, COMEX gold rose 3.30% to 4521; SHFE silver rose 0.10% to 17489, COMEX silver rose 2.41% to 70. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio decreased by 6.38% to 57.10, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio increased by 1.85% to 64.80 [2]. - **Basic logic**: The situation in the Middle East has escalated, and the global economic situation is in trouble. The core suppression factors for precious metals are the rise of the US dollar and US bond yields, the "sell - everything" de - risk operation, and the concern about the Fed maintaining high - interest rates. However, the four underlying logics of the long - term bull market in precious metals remain unchanged [2]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Gold pays attention to the support around 970 in the short term, and silver pays attention to the performance around 17000. Keep an eye on the situation of the Strait of Hormuz [2]. Copper - **Core view**: Copper is in a range - bound state, waiting for the Middle East situation to become clear. In the long - term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about copper [1][5]. - **Market data**: The closing price of SHFE copper futures decreased by 0.22% to 95490 yuan/ton, LME copper increased by 0.17% to 12141 US dollars/ton, and COMEX copper decreased by 0.16% to 546.15 US dollars/pound. The social inventory decreased by 4.03 million tons to 42.74 million tons [3]. - **Industrial logic**: The global copper mine supply is continuously tight, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to increase. The safe passage of the Strait of Hormuz is uncertain, which may affect the smelting of African wet - process copper. After the sharp decline in copper prices, the downstream actively priced at low points, and the demand in the peak season recovered, providing support for the price [4]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, SHFE copper pays attention to the range of [94500, 97500] yuan/ton, and LME copper pays attention to the range of [12000, 12500] US dollars/ton [5]. Zinc - **Core view**: Zinc continues to rebound [1][8]. - **Market data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc futures increased by 0.49% to 23370 yuan/ton, LME zinc increased by 1.07% to 3106.5 US dollars/ton. The social inventory decreased by 0.57 million tons to 24.95 million tons [6]. - **Industrial logic**: The global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026, and the processing fees of imported zinc concentrates are lower than expected. Some small and medium - sized smelters have reduced production. The downstream start - up has recovered, and the consumption has marginally improved. The overseas zinc smelters have a production - reduction expectation, and the LME zinc inventory is at a low level in the same period of history, providing support for the zinc price [7]. - **Strategy recommendation**: SHFE zinc pays attention to the range of [22300, 23500] yuan/ton, and LME zinc pays attention to the range of [3050, 3150] US dollars/ton [8]. Aluminum - **Core view**: The aluminum price rebounds again [1][9]. - **Market data**: The closing price of LME aluminum increased by 0.92% to 3284.5 US dollars/ton, and the closing price of SHFE aluminum increased by 0.89% to 23935 yuan/ton. The SMM A00 aluminum spot average price increased by 1.28% to 23810 yuan/ton [9]. - **Industrial logic**: The short - term supply disturbance in the Middle East continues, and the new electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia are still in the production - climbing stage. The domestic downstream processing start - up rate has rebounded. The alumina inventory is still high, and the over - supply pattern is difficult to fundamentally reverse [11]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Temporarily wait - and - see for SHFE aluminum, pay attention to the change of aluminum ingot social inventory, and the main operation range is [23000 - 25000] [12]. Nickel - **Core view**: The nickel price rebounds under pressure [1][16]. - **Market data**: The closing price of LME nickel increased by 0.29% to 17215 US dollars/ton, and the closing price of SHFE nickel increased by 0.91% to 137100 yuan/ton. The SMM electrolytic nickel spot average price decreased by 0.25% to 139000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Industrial logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in 2026 is weakening. The reduction expectation of Indonesia's nickel ore production quota is weakened. The domestic pure nickel inventory continues to increase, and the stainless - steel inventory is still at a high level, and the downstream recovery needs further verification [15]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Temporarily wait - and - see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to Indonesia's policy and the change of downstream stainless - steel inventory, and the main operation range of nickel is [125000 - 145000] [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core view**: The supply - side disturbance still exists, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices [17][20]. - **Market data**: The main contract LC2605 increased by 7.15% to 168440 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium carbonate 99.5% increased by 1.91% to 160000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Industrial logic**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the total inventory is slightly accumulating. The domestic mica - mine mining - license problem has not been solved, and the overseas lithium - mine policy is uncertain. The new - energy vehicle sales are poor, but the material link is still operating at full capacity, which may support the lithium - carbonate price [19]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Wait - and - see, and the range is [160000 - 173000] [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the paradox of Pop Mart's stock buyback announcement coinciding with a significant drop in its stock price, indicating a disconnect between market perception and company fundamentals [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Pop Mart reported a revenue of 37.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 184.7%, and an adjusted net profit of 13.08 billion yuan, up 284.5% [3]. - Despite strong financial results, the stock price fell sharply, reflecting a market shift in expectations regarding future growth [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reaction - The market's response to Pop Mart's buyback was negative, with a 10% drop in stock price on the same day the buyback was announced, following a 22.5% decline the previous trading day [1][3]. - Analysts noted that the management's guidance of a growth rate of "at least 20%" for 2026 was perceived as a significant downgrade from previous expectations, leading to a reassessment of the company's growth narrative [3][4]. Group 3: Valuation and Analyst Opinions - Goldman Sachs downgraded Pop Mart's target price from 300 HKD to 184 HKD and reduced profit forecasts for 2026-2027 by 18% [4]. - Morgan Stanley, however, argued that the stock is undervalued at a projected P/E ratio of about 14 times for 2026, suggesting potential for growth in the global IP collectibles market [4]. Group 4: Broader Market Context - The article discusses the broader challenges facing the Hong Kong stock market, including a significant upcoming wave of stock unlocks, which could exacerbate liquidity issues [6][8]. - It highlights that many stocks in the Hong Kong market are experiencing low trading volumes, with over half of listed companies trading less than 1 million HKD daily, leading to a situation where minor sell-offs can trigger sharp price declines [6][8]. Group 5: Investment Sentiment - The article notes that despite some optimism regarding potential inflows of capital from the Middle East, the actual impact may be limited given the scale of upcoming unlocks in the market [7][8]. - Pop Mart's buyback activity, totaling over 900 million HKD, indicates management's commitment to supporting the stock price, although it may not be sufficient to alleviate investor concerns about slowing growth [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold: Pay attention to stabilization. The situation between the US and Iran is volatile, with many uncontrollable factors disrupting the market. Central banks are not raising interest rates, and there are still recession trades and liquidity crises. There are significant differences in the stances of the US, Iran, and Israel. The short - term war situation is full of uncertainties, and radical long - term investors can focus on the arrival of the bottom [1]. - Silver: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The situation is full of variables. The short - term market is trading on economic recession, and silver is under pressure. Although it is in an inventory state, the fundamentals are ignored. It is unknown when the Iran situation will end, and it is difficult to participate in the short - term. Pay attention to the risk - reward ratio [1]. - Copper: Range - bound. The US - Iran negotiation is at a deadlock, and the oil price has strengthened again. The domestic copper social inventory continues to decline, and demand is picking up. It will range - bound and wait for the Middle East situation to become clear. In the long - term, it is still optimistic about copper [1][6]. - Zinc: Rebound. The Middle East situation is volatile again, the oil price has strengthened, and the processing fee of imported zinc concentrate is lower than expected. Zinc has rebounded against the trend at a low level and is waiting for more macro - level guidance [1][10]. - Lead: Rebound is under pressure. The domestic lead market continues to have a situation of weak supply and demand. The demand of downstream battery enterprises is poor, and the consumption of internal and external lead ingot inventories is slow. The lead price is under pressure in the short - term [1]. - Tin: Rebound is under pressure. The supply of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar overseas is gradually recovering, the operation of major smelting enterprises in Yunnan and other places in China is stable, and the downstream electronics industry is in the off - season. The tin price is under pressure in the short - term [1]. - Aluminum: Rebound is under pressure. There is an expectation of tightening bauxite supply in Guinea overseas, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continues to accumulate, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is gradually rising. The aluminum price is under pressure in the short - term [1]. - Nickel: Rebound is under pressure. The impact of Indonesia's nickel ore production quota still exists, the high inventory and weak consumption state in China continue, the consumption demand of downstream stainless steel is poor, and the nickel price is under pressure in the short - term [1]. - Industrial silicon: Rebound. Although polysilicon has increased production, the low spot price will cause some enterprises to postpone resuming production. The organic silicon industry is implementing production cuts, and the fundamentals have shifted from destocking to a tight balance. The main contract of the futures market fluctuates widely [1]. - Polysilicon: Decline. The total inventory of polysilicon is expected to decline slightly in March. However, the lowest spot transaction price is 39,000 yuan/ton, and the shipment strategies of manufacturers are different. Some manufacturers are forced to sell at a lower price due to inventory pressure, driving the futures market down. Be cautious when participating [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Rebound is under pressure. The total inventory has increased slightly, and the increase in production makes it difficult for the price to rise. There are uncertainties in the supply side at home and abroad, and the macro - environment has not changed. Hold positions cautiously [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Information**: SHFE gold fell 1.77% to 995.98, and COMEX gold fell 2.13% to 4408. SHFE silver fell 3.53% to 17472, and COMEX silver fell 4.65%. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio rose 1.82% to 57.00, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio remained unchanged at 63.03. The dollar index rose 0.24% to 99.88, and the US Treasury real yield rose 0.06 to 2.08. Gold ETF decreased by 9.43 tons to 1052.70 tons, and the net long position of gold COMEX decreased by 3263 to 159869. Silver ETF remained unchanged at 15514 tons, and the net long position of silver COMEX decreased by 2697 to 21881 [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The Iran war situation is in the "fighting while negotiating" stage, and the conflict is more persistent and uncertain. The probability of the US economic recession has increased. The core factors suppressing precious metals are the rise of the dollar and US Treasury yields, the "sell - everything" de - risk operation involving gold, and the concern that rising inflation expectations will strengthen the Fed's high - interest - rate policy. However, the four underlying logics of the long - term bull market of precious metals remain unchanged [3]. - **Strategy**: Gold short - term support is around 970, and silver short - term elasticity is large. Pay attention to its performance around 17000 [3]. Copper - **Market Information**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 95150 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The total social inventory decreased by 4.03 tons to 42.74 tons [4]. - **Industry Logic**: The global copper mine supply is continuously tight, and the copper concentrate processing fee is - 65.5 dollars/ton. The electrolytic copper production in February decreased by 3.69 tons to 114.24 tons, and it is expected to increase by 5.28 tons in March. The safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is uncertain, and the smelting of African wet - process copper may be affected. After the sharp decline in copper prices, the downstream actively priced at low points, the start - up rate increased, and the domestic social inventory decreased again [5]. - **Strategy**: Copper will range - bound and wait for the Middle East situation to become clear. In the long - term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The short - term range of SHFE copper is [94500, 97500] yuan/ton, and that of LME copper is [12000, 12500] dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 23170 yuan/ton, up 0.80%. The total social inventory decreased by 0.57 tons to 24.95 tons [8]. - **Industry Logic**: The global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026, and the processing fee of imported zinc concentrate is lower than expected. Some domestic small and medium - sized smelters have reduced production. The refined zinc production in February decreased by 9.99% to 50.46 tons, and it is expected to increase to 57.99 tons in March. The downstream start - up rate has increased, and the inventory at home and abroad has decreased [9]. - **Strategy**: Zinc has rebounded at a low level and is waiting for more macro - level guidance. In the long - term, it is waiting for the resonance of macro and micro factors. The range of SHFE zinc is [22800, 23500] yuan/ton, and that of LME zinc is [3050, 3150] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The closing price of LME aluminum was 3225.5 dollars/ton, down 0.51%. The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract was 23725 yuan/ton, down 0.57%. The SMM A00 aluminum spot average price was 23510 yuan/ton, down 1.05%. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3675 tons to 423075 tons, and the SMM aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 1.2 tons to 134.9 tons [11]. - **Industry Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in 2026 is weakening. In the industry, the short - term supply disturbance in the Middle East continues, and new electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia are still ramping up production. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory has increased, and the aluminum rod inventory has decreased slightly. The operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing enterprises has increased. The overseas bauxite freight has increased slightly, the alumina enterprise operating rate is about 77.08%, and the inventory is still high [13]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach for SHFE aluminum, pay attention to the change in the aluminum ingot social inventory, and the main operating range is [22500 - 24500] [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: No specific market information is provided in the given text. - **Industry Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in 2026 is weakening. Indonesia has confirmed a reduction in the nickel ore production quota in 2026, but the news of additional quotas weakens the expectation of tightening supply. The domestic pure nickel social inventory has increased, and the stainless steel social inventory is still at a high level. The downstream demand is gradually recovering [17]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to Indonesia's policies and the change in the downstream stainless steel inventory, and the main operating range of nickel is [125000 - 145000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The main contract LC2605 of lithium carbonate was 157,200 yuan/ton, down 1.21%. The lithium carbonate weekly production increased by 2.72% to 24,365 tons, and the inventory decreased by 0.09% to 98,873 tons [19]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the total inventory has increased slightly. The narrowing gap between apparent demand and production makes it difficult for the price to rise. The domestic mica mine mining license problem has not been solved, and the overseas lithium mine policy in Zimbabwe is not settled. The new energy vehicle sales are poor, but the material sector maintains full production and sales, which will support the lithium carbonate price to some extent [21]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, and the range is [152000 - 165000] [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of geopolitical events, particularly the U.S.-Iran tensions, on global markets, highlighting how sudden announcements can lead to drastic price fluctuations in commodities like oil and gold [2][3][4][6]. Market Reactions - Following President Trump's announcement regarding negotiations with Iran, Asian markets experienced a sharp decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 3.6%, Nikkei 225 down 3.48%, and the A-share market's Shanghai Composite Index falling 3.63% [3][6]. - Oil prices reacted dramatically, with Brent crude oil falling over 10% from a high of $113 per barrel to below $97, while WTI crude dropped more than 12% to below $85 [3][4]. - Conversely, gold prices initially fell but later showed resilience, with London gold prices recovering from an 8.22% drop to a smaller decline of 1.22% [4][6]. Geopolitical Context - The article emphasizes the volatility caused by geopolitical tensions, particularly the threat of military action in the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil supply [11][13]. - Trump's contradictory statements about negotiations with Iran led to further market instability, showcasing the influence of political narratives on commodity prices [19][21]. Economic Implications - The article notes that the rising oil prices have prompted the Chinese government to intervene by adjusting fuel prices, marking the first such action since 2013 [15][16]. - Analysts predict that if a ceasefire is achieved, oil prices may stabilize, but ongoing tensions could keep prices elevated [52][53]. Investment Strategies - The current market environment is characterized by uncertainty, with traditional investment strategies becoming less effective due to the unpredictable nature of geopolitical events [54][58]. - Analysts suggest that investors may need to lower their positions and avoid high-risk bets in the current climate [58]. Future Outlook - The article concludes with insights from economists who believe that while short-term risks for gold prices remain, long-term factors such as geopolitical risks and central bank policies could support gold prices in the future [37][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded due to Trump's statement on the productive talks between the US and Iran, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index and a short - term repair of the US stock market. However, the Iranian attitude remains tough, and the Middle East situation is still highly uncertain [1][2][13][18]. - The A - share market has deeply corrected due to the escalation of the US - Iran war. Although there are rumors of progress in the US - Iran negotiations, the sustainability of the market rebound remains to be seen [3][19]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by the US - Iran situation and their own fundamentals. For example, steel prices are driven by cost but lack fundamental support; coal prices are expected to rise in the short - term; copper prices are expected to maintain a wide - range shock [4][5][25][27][46]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump stated that the US - Iran talks were "productive", causing the global market risk appetite to rebound and the US dollar index to weaken. The US - Iran war may gradually come to an end. It is expected that the US dollar will be weak in the short - term [1][13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's Goolsbee believes that there may be a need to raise interest rates due to the inflation shock caused by the Middle East situation. Trump released a signal of easing, and the stock market rebounded in the short - term. However, the Iranian attitude is still tough, and the US stock market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for a clear right - hand signal [15][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares have deeply corrected, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3800 points. The US - Iran war has hit the global stock market, and although there are rumors of progress in the negotiations, the sustainability of the A - share rebound remains to be seen. It is recommended to maintain a low - position to avoid risks [3][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 80 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1293 billion yuan. The war situation is complex, and it is recommended to observe more and act less [21][22]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korea made an anti - dumping final ruling on Chinese and Japanese carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils. Steel prices are oscillating strongly due to the rise in energy and coking coal prices, but the fundamental driving force is insufficient. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the increase is limited [4][24][25][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable on March 23. The coal price has entered a short - term upward channel due to the impact of the Middle East energy issue. It is expected that the coal price will continue to rise in early April, but the sustainability needs to be vigilant [27]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The Middle East conflict may cause iron ore miners to face billions of dollars in additional fuel costs. The iron ore price continues to oscillate, and the short - term trend is not clear. As the conflict continues, both supply and demand may be damaged [28][29]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased slightly. The rise in shipping costs due to the Middle East conflict has increased the cost of imported soybeans in China, but there is no further upward driving force for soybean meal. It is necessary to pay attention to various uncertainties in the domestic and foreign markets [30]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In February 2026, the import volume of corn starch increased significantly. The supply of corn is expected to increase as the temperature rises, and the downstream demand has rigid support. The short - term market has intensified long - short games, and the medium - to - long - term upward amplitude is restricted by demand and policies [31][32]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - Platinum and palladium prices fell sharply, mainly due to the liquidity crisis. There is support at the spot end, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium in the medium - term, and reduce positions and take profits for long platinum - palladium ratio positions in the short - term [33][34]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly. The lead price has support from the cost of recycled lead, but the terminal consumption is facing the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [35][36]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The inventory of zinc ingots in seven places decreased. The zinc price has support from fundamentals, and it is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and the volatility to decline, and then pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [37][38]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand for new energy vehicles is expected to improve. The lithium carbonate market is expected to be in a tight balance in March - April. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after the correction [40][41][42]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The Vatican launched an initiative to encourage investors to withdraw from the mining industry. The copper price is supported by the easing of the Middle East war, but there is a risk of the situation reversing. It is expected that the copper price will maintain a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage [43][46]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply and demand of tin are in a weak pattern, and the price is expected to operate weakly due to the continuous suppression of the Middle East geopolitical conflict [47][48][49]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Trump postponed the military strike against Iran for five days, causing the oil price to drop significantly. The Middle East situation is still highly uncertain, and the oil price will maintain high volatility [52][53]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG is expected to fluctuate widely due to the high sensitivity of the market to the geopolitical situation [54][55]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - Trump's statement of forming agreement points with Iran has reduced the war premium of the fuel oil market. The short - term market uncertainty is still large [55][56][57]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea price may be affected by coal prices in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by policies. It is recommended that market participants purchase based on rigid demand and reduce speculative operations [58][59]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in the East China main port decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene are expected to rise, and it is recommended to be long on aromatics [60][61][62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is rising. The supply and demand of caustic soda are improving marginally, and it may continue to be strong in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by the weak basis and high inventory [63][64][65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has risen, but the high - price resistance is obvious. The supply of PVC is expected to decrease, and the cost is rising. The PVC futures price is expected to be strong [66][67]. 3.2.19 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The last foreign - controlled terminal has withdrawn from the Chinese mainland market. The container freight rate is affected by the geopolitical situation and oil prices. It is recommended to treat the market with a strong - oscillation idea in the short - term and pay attention to the changes in the US - Iran situation and oil prices [68][69].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant drop in international gold and silver prices, with gold falling over 4.66% to below $4300 per ounce, erasing its gains for 2026, and silver dropping to $63 per ounce, down 7% [1][3] - Multiple brands have adjusted their gold jewelry prices, with major players like Lao Miao Gold, Chow Tai Fook, and Luk Fook Jewelry reducing prices to below 1400 yuan per gram [3] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued a notice regarding market risk control, indicating that recent factors have led to significant price volatility in precious metals, urging members to monitor market changes and prepare risk management plans [5] Group 2 - The domestic market has experienced the largest weekly drop in 40 years, with gold prices breaking through key technical levels and showing a downward trend due to a combination of factors including a short-term failure of safe-haven logic, a liquidity crisis in global markets, and a shift in global monetary policy expectations [5] - Gold stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have seen continuous declines, with notable drops such as Chifeng Jilong Gold falling over 25% and Lingbao Gold down over 15% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Wait for the price to stop falling [1] - Silver: Observe mainly [1] - Copper: Observe [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: Decline [1] - Lithium carbonate: Wide - range oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious metals are affected by liquidity crisis and recession trading, with gold and silver prices dropping significantly. Although there are short - term suppressions, the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [1][2] - Due to the intensification of concerns about global economic recession, copper prices are oscillating weakly in the short term, but the long - term outlook is not overly pessimistic [1][4][6] - Zinc prices are under pressure in the short term due to the downturn in the non - ferrous sector, but in the long run, it is necessary to wait for the resonance of macro and micro factors [1][7][9] - Aluminum prices have support due to the tightening of overseas ore supply, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the short term [1][10][13] - Nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be observed mainly, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes [1][14][17] - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range oscillation, lacking upward drivers [1][18][21] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: The precious metals market experienced significant fluctuations last week. International gold prices plummeted, and domestic gold futures also declined sharply. Silver prices dropped even more severely, with all declines exceeding 10% [2] - **Underlying Logic**: The situation in the Middle East has deteriorated, and global central banks have adopted hawkish stances. The core factors suppressing precious metals include the rise of the US dollar and US bond yields, the outflow of ETF funds, and the concern about the Fed maintaining high interest rates. However, the four underlying logics supporting the long - term bull market of precious metals remain unchanged [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, gold volatility increases and is under pressure. Pay attention to the performance around 1000. Silver is under pressure, and pay attention to the performance around 16000. In the medium term, if oil prices remain high and stagflation risks increase, forcing the Fed to turn to easing, gold will regain strong upward momentum [2] Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper is oscillating weakly [4][5] - **Underlying Logic**: The global copper mine supply remains tight, and the processing fee of copper concentrates is - 65.5 US dollars/ton. The production of electrolytic copper in February decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The safe passage of the Strait of Hormuz is uncertain, which may affect the smelting of wet - process copper in Africa. The peak season is lackluster, demand is weak, and overseas inventories are accumulating more than expected [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, copper is oscillating weakly, and it is recommended to observe temporarily. In the long term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about copper [6] Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc is oscillating weakly [7][8] - **Underlying Logic**: The global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. Some domestic mines are shut down or reduced in production seasonally, and the processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates is 1550 yuan/ton. The production of refined zinc in February decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The downstream start - up is warming up, and the inventory is being depleted [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc is oscillating downward, and it is recommended to observe temporarily. In the long term, wait for the resonance of macro and micro factors [9] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices rebounded after reaching a low, and alumina rebounded under pressure [10][11] - **Underlying Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in 2026 is weakening. There are short - term supply disturbances in the Middle East, and new electrolytic aluminum projects in overseas Indonesia are still ramping up. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China is increasing, and the inventory of aluminum rods is decreasing slightly. The downstream processing start - up rate is rising. The overseas bauxite freight rate has increased slightly, the alumina inventory is high, and the over - supply pattern is difficult to change fundamentally [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on dips for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory [13] Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices rebounded, and stainless steel also rebounded [14][15] - **Underlying Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in 2026 is weakening. Indonesia may adjust the nickel ore production quota, but the recent news of additional quotas weakens the expectation of tightening on the nickel ore side. The domestic pure nickel inventory is increasing, and the stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, but the downstream recovery needs further verification [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to observe nickel and stainless steel mainly, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened high, then fluctuated, and finally declined [18][19] - **Underlying Logic**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, the inventory is slightly decreasing, and the price increase is difficult. The domestic mica mine mining license issue is unresolved, and the overseas lithium mine policy in Zimbabwe is not finalized, which will affect the long - term raw material supply. The new energy vehicle sales are poor, but the material sector maintains full production and sales, which will support the lithium carbonate price to a certain extent [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation between 137000 - 144000 [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Last Week's Review**: Affected by the sudden escalation of the geopolitical crisis between the US and Iran, global risk - aversion sentiment soared, causing sharp fluctuations in crude oil and the US dollar index, and a severe liquidity crunch in the commodity market. Funds fled from risky assets, leading to a decline in the main contract of lithium carbonate with reduced positions, and the spot and cost ends also fell synchronously. On Friday, after a brief calm, the main contract of the lithium carbonate market rebounded from the MA60 moving - average line but weakened again at the end of the session [4]. - **Future Outlook**: Macroscopically, as the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran enters a game stage, the market's over - reaction to the liquidity crisis is expected to continue. Fundamentally, the core contradiction of low inventory and high production scheduling in the lithium carbonate market remains unchanged. Once the liquidity crisis eases or there is a vacuum in geopolitical news, the futures market is expected to have a restorative rebound. However, short - term disturbances from geopolitical news should be vigilant, as the stability of funds is still fragile, and the lithium market is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations. It is not advisable to blindly chase up or sell down [4][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data | Indicator | 2026/3/20 | 2026/3/13 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%) | 223 | 228 | - 5.00 | - 2.19% | US dollars/ton | | Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 2175 | 2235 | - 60.00 | - 2.68% | US dollars/ton | | Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 2445 | 2505 | - 60.00 | - 2.40% | US dollars/ton | | Spot exchange rate: US dollar to RMB | 6.901 | 6.903 | 0.00 | - 0.02% | / | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 14.18 | 15.53 | - 1.35 | - 8.70% | 10,000 yuan/ton | | Lithium carbonate main contract price | 14.39 | 15.21 | - 0.82 | - 5.41% | 10,000 yuan/ton | | Lithium iron phosphate price | 5.53 | 5.41 | 0.12 | 2.22% | 10,000 yuan/ton | | Lithium cobalt oxide price | 39.40 | 40.00 | - 0.60 | - 1.50% | 10,000 yuan/ton | | Ternary material price: 811 | 20.20 | 20.20 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 10,000 yuan/ton | | Ternary material price: 622 | 18.65 | 18.65 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 10,000 yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Last Week's Market Analysis** - **Regulation and Delivery**: As of March 23, 2026, the warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange totaled 34,318 lots, and the holding scale of the main contract was 245,200 lots [7]. - **Supply Side** - **Production**: As of March 23, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 24,050 tons, a 1.39% increase from the previous period. In March, there was a lot of production resumption in China. In lithium extraction from spodumene, the production line maintenance in Sichuan in February ended in mid - March, and many mainstream lithium salt plants resumed full - load production around March 15. In Jiangxi, the resumption progress of projects such as the Jianxiawo Mine under CATL was the focus. In lithium extraction from salt lakes, with the temperature rising in Qinghai, the evaporation efficiency of salt lakes improved, and the output in March increased naturally compared with February [7]. - **Lithium Ore Import**: The total import of lithium ore was about 788,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.09%. The import from Australia was 309,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.18%; from Zimbabwe was about 132,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.85%; from Nigeria was about 80,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.12%. The import from South Africa increased significantly to 109,400 tons [8]. - **Lithium Salt Import**: In February, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 26,426 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.61% and a year - on - year increase of 114.36%. The import from Chile was about 15,354 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%, accounting for about 58.10%. The import from Argentina was 10,353 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.11%, accounting for about 39.18% [8]. - **Demand Side** - **Downstream Cathode Materials** - **Supply**: As of March 23, the weekly output of ternary materials was about 19,480 tons, with an operating rate of 49.34%, a 0.57 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, and the inventory was 12,050 tons, an 80 - ton increase from the previous period. The weekly output of lithium iron phosphate was about 114,500 tons, with an operating rate of 89.55%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, and the inventory was 26,975 tons, a 756 - ton decrease from the previous period. - **Price**: As of March 23, the price of ternary materials was relatively stable. The price of 6 - series ternary materials increased from 181,700 yuan/ton to 182,700 yuan/ton; the price of 8 - series increased from 201,700 yuan/ton to 205,700 yuan/ton; the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased from 56,200 yuan/ton to 53,600 yuan/ton, and the price of energy - storage type decreased from 54,300 yuan/ton to 51,700 yuan/ton. The profits of ternary material enterprises improved, but the demand recovery was slightly less than expected. Lithium iron phosphate production was stable according to existing orders, and the leading enterprises had good operating conditions. - **Overall Situation**: The market gradually recovered in March. The power battery was affected by the decline in new - energy passenger vehicle retail sales in the short term, but the production scheduling in April was expected to be good. The domestic and foreign energy - storage orders were still full, and the downstream market activity recovered. It should be noted that in the short term, due to the "buy - on - rising" mentality, the demand side mainly made rigid - need purchases, and the substantial realization of benefits needed the intervention of buyers after the continuous decline of lithium prices [9]. - **New - Energy Vehicles** - **Domestic**: From March 1 - 15, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China were 285,000 units, a 28% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period in March last year and a 36% month - on - month increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1.345 million units, a 26% year - on - year decrease. The post - holiday new - energy vehicle market was recovering rapidly. - **Overseas**: In February 2026, the US auto market data showed that the new - car sales were 1.18 million units, a 3.8% year - on - year decline. In China, the central economic work conference emphasized the comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition, and the "price war" in the new - energy vehicle industry that lasted for two years ended. The industry entered the "cost - driven price - increase" stage, and the new - energy vehicle market entered a new stage and would experience a painful reshuffle period. Overall, the consumption of new - energy vehicles was expected to climb slowly [10]. - **Inventory**: As of March 23, the factory inventory of lithium carbonate was 20,015 tons, a 225 - ton reduction from the previous period; the exchange inventory was 34,318 lots, a 2,085 - lot reduction from the previous week. The overall industry inventory level dropped below 99,000 tons, and some third - party data showed it dropped to about 98,900 tons. Once the downstream demand turned into actual purchases, the low inventory would fuel the price rebound [11]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Geopolitical issues bring capital disturbances, and lithium prices fluctuate widely. Macroscopically, as the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran enters a game stage, the market's over - reaction to the liquidity crisis is expected to continue. Fundamentally, the core contradiction of low inventory and high production scheduling in the lithium carbonate market remains unchanged. Once the liquidity crisis eases or there is a vacuum in geopolitical news, the futures market is expected to have a restorative rebound. However, short - term disturbances from geopolitical news should be vigilant, as the stability of funds is still fragile, and the lithium market is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations. It is not advisable to blindly chase up or sell down [12] 3.3 Industry News - Vulcan Energy announced that the German Lionheart lithium project, which has obtained a production license, has been fully financed and entered the construction stage. The project aims to start production in 2028, with a designed annual production capacity of about 24,000 tons of lithium hydroxide monohydrate and will produce renewable energy by - products [13]. - Fulin Jinggong's subsidiary plans to invest 1.004 billion yuan to promote the construction of a project with an annual output of 500,000 tons of high - end energy - storage lithium iron phosphate [13]. - On March 16, 2026, Xi'an Lanxiao Technology New Material Co., Ltd. announced the termination of the sales contract for a 3,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate extraction device with Argentina's HANACOLLA S.A. due to changes in the project's overall plan. HANACOLLA needs to pay 1.5 million US dollars to Lanxiao Technology within 3 working days after signing the termination agreement and gives up the right to require the company to refund the 2.5 - million - US - dollar advance payment [13] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to lithium carbonate futures prices, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, imported lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, and other aspects, with data sources from iFinD, Baichuan Yingfu, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][17][24]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates and the possibility of future rate hikes have led to a significant drop in gold and silver prices, with the A-share market falling below 4000 points, raising concerns about a liquidity crisis [2] - European natural gas futures surged by 27% due to damage at Qatar's liquefied natural gas facilities [4] - Iran's parliament is pushing a bill that would require countries using the Strait of Hormuz for shipping, energy, and food transport to pay tolls and taxes to Iran [7] Group 2 - The UAE is maintaining its $1.4 trillion investment commitment to the US despite the ongoing conflict, indicating a strategic stance against Iran, which remains a key target for Iranian retaliation [8] - Japan is responding to US demands by committing 10 trillion yen (approximately $640 billion) for investment in the US, covering sectors like energy, minerals, and infrastructure, to secure concessions on tariffs and trade rules [9] - Japan's investment in the US is seen as a way to bypass Chinese control and establish a US-Japan-led supply chain for strategic industries such as semiconductors and renewable energy [11][12]