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弘则固收叶青:结构性资产荒徐徐展开
news flash· 2025-06-17 23:20
Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in investment strategy for non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) in the second quarter, moving from a focus on rate bonds to a significant increase in credit bonds and asset-backed securities (ABS) due to a record high in wealth management scale reaching 31.5 trillion yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In the second quarter, funding conditions are similar to the same period last year, but market conditions are characterized by limited curve space and a lack of cost-effectiveness, leading to cautious institutional sentiment [1]. - The current asset scarcity is more structural, with the overall degree of asset scarcity being significantly lower than the same period last year [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The strategy recommended is to adopt a "last third of the first half" approach, focusing on selecting high-yield individual bonds [1][2]. - There is a notable preference for short-duration credit bonds among investors, with a clear trend of differentiation in market evolution [2][4]. Group 3: Fund Flows - After a peak in May, the scale of money market fund repurchase has stabilized, and net purchases of cash bonds have surged since June, indicating that NBFIs have begun to increase their allocations [2][4]. - Since the end of March, NBFIs have become the main source of incremental funds in the market, coinciding with a rapid decline in certificate of deposit yields and significant growth in bank absorption of non-bank funds [1].