Group 1 - The latest scale of corporate bond ETFs reached 21.063 billion yuan, marking a new high since its establishment [3] - In terms of net fund inflow, corporate bond ETFs have seen continuous inflows over the past 15 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.538 billion yuan, totaling 5.495 billion yuan, and an average daily net inflow of 366 million yuan [3] - Agricultural commercial banks significantly increased their purchases, with a net buying of 41.8 billion yuan on June 26, while large banks, joint-stock banks, and city commercial banks had net sales of 32.7 billion yuan, 18.4 billion yuan, and 28.3 billion yuan respectively [3] Group 2 - As of the end of May, the scale of open-end bond funds was 6.78 trillion yuan, with an increase of 221.9 billion yuan that month, still below the end of the previous year at 6.84 trillion yuan; money market fund scale reached 14.4 trillion yuan, a historical high, driven by a reduction in deposit interest rates [3] - The interest rate bonds are expected to experience narrow fluctuations, with a focus on the central bank's liquidity behavior, which may adjust by 10 basis points if tightened; the short-term deliberately loose pattern may remain unchanged but is unlikely to become more accommodative [3] - The company bond fund (511030) has a contract stipulating coupon replenishment on T1 day, which is more efficient compared to other eight companies that have T2 day replenishment agreements, resulting in lower replenishment costs [3]

弘则固收叶青发表研报，与3-4月非银主要增配利率债不同，二季度理财规模突破31.5万亿创历史新高后，5月非银在欠配压力下大量增配信用债和ABS。从 资金流向看，二季度资金条件接近去年同期，但市场条件(曲线空间逼仄、性价比缺失)和机构情绪偏谨慎。本轮行情与去年不同，更多呈现欠配下的被动而 为，而非"抢夺最后的高收益机会"。建议采用"后三分之一的前二分之一"策略，在相对高收益率个券中择优配置。 当前资产荒更多呈现结构性特征，整体程度明显不如去年同期。债市整体供需测算显示，自去年下半年起，由于发债规模快速增长，市场整体资产荒程度持 续降低。货币政策投放力度有限，债券供给大幅增长，放水速度跟不上债券发行。结构问题突出表现为非银欠配远比银行严重，3月底以来非银成为市场主 要增量资金来源，伴随存单收益率快速下行和银行吸收非银资金显著增长。 货基出回购规模5月冲高后趋稳，6月开始现券净买入大幅冲高，非银增配已开始发生。配置方向主要为信用债、ABS，信用债存在短久期偏好。市场演进分 化明显，标准化收益率排序10%-20%、40%-50%、60%-70%的指数表现最好。市场出现拉久期和下沉趋势，但从中择优、挑选"后三分之一的前 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 06 08 年 月 日 固定收益定期 利率为何能突破前低 本周债市震荡走强，各期限利率多有下行。月初资金转松，R001 利率降至 1.45% 左右，R007 降至 1.55%左右。本周 10 年国债和 30 年国债利率分别小幅下行 1.7bps 和 2.0bps 至 1.65%和 1.88%。信用同样随之走强，1 年 AAA 存单利率回 落 2.3bps 至 1.68%，3 年和 5 年 AAA-二级资本债回落 3.2bps 和 1.9bps。 随着时间推移，市场此前对债市的担忧有所缓解。一方面，大行抛券压力有限，并 未出现明显的季末浮盈兑现需求。我们在上周周报中进行过论述，2 季度银行盈利 压力相对有限，对选浮盈需求并不高。另一方面，虽然未来几周存单大量到期，但 由于银行负债压力有限，目前依然在大量融出资金，且存单利率保持低位。因而续 发对市场冲击目前看并不会很大。而且央行在本月月初进行买断式回购操作，也 是帮助市场稳定预期，缓解资金冲击压力。因而对债市调整的担忧显著缓解。 但随着利率下行，长债利率再度接近此前低位，市场担忧利率能否突破前低 ...

Maike 迈科期货 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE www.mkgh.com 迈科期货基差统计表 2025年05月27日9:00 1.基差率为主力合约基差率，计算公式： 基差率－ (现货价格-主力合约价格) /主力合约价格。基基率历史最值计算的样本为2015年1月1日至今。 2.数据来源： Wind金融终端、钢联数据终端。带"报价为周更数据； 带"报价现货与基准交割品有差别。 | 交易代码 | 再次月合约 | 较昨日增减 | 当月基差 | 次月基差 | 次月合约 | 现货价格 | 基差率 | 再次月基差 | 景自合约 | 现货价格来源 | 名称 | 0.15% | SMM 1#电解铜 | 78590 | 0.41% | 78270 | 77590 | 铜 | 1000 | CU | 77910 | 320 | 680 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The reduction in deposit rates is greater than expected, with the average reduction being 16 basis points, which is higher than the 10 basis points reduction in loan rates, indicating a clear regulatory support for interest margins [5] - The phenomenon of deposit disintermediation is expected to persist long-term, although the degree of disintermediation is weaker than last year due to manual interest compensation governance [2] - The average annualized yield for cash management products is 1.46%, which is higher than the actual interest rate for state-owned banks' 1-year deposits by 36 basis points, suggesting that wealth management products still have a comparative advantage over deposits [2] Summary by Sections Deposit Rate Adjustments - As of May 20, 2025, the LPR for 1-year and 5-year has been lowered by 10 basis points to 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, with significant reductions in various deposit rates across state-owned banks and China Merchants Bank [5] - The new rates for different deposit types include a reduction in the current deposit rate to 0.05% and a 15 basis point reduction for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year fixed deposits [5] Market Impact - Short-term market expectations for interest rate cuts have been fully priced in, with limited immediate impact on bond market prices. However, in the medium to long term, the reduction in deposit rates may improve funding costs and lead to a decline in bond yields [3] - The improvement in funding costs is expected to enhance the ticket yield for banks, as previous constraints on allocation due to funding costs are alleviated [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that bank stocks are not in the latter stage but rather at the beginning of a long cycle, with regulatory support for interest margins and declining rates benefiting dividend stocks [6] - Key recommendations include city commercial banks such as Jiangsu Bank and Chengdu Bank, as well as dividend-paying banks like Agricultural Bank and China CITIC Bank [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cuts have positively impacted short and medium-term bonds, leading to a notable decline in rates, while long-term bonds are experiencing a "buying expectation, selling reality" scenario [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the "double cut" (interest rate and reserve requirement ratio), the 1-year government bond yield fell to 1.40%, while long-term bonds showed mixed performance due to market dynamics [2]. - The average yield of long-term bond funds slightly outperformed that of short-term bond funds, with yields at 0.13% and 0.10% respectively, indicating a growing interest in short-term assets [4]. Group 2: Key Players in the Market - Major buyers of short-term bonds include rural commercial banks and foreign investors, with net purchases exceeding 10 billion yuan for bonds with maturities of one year or less [2]. - Non-bank institutions have also been active in the secondary market, significantly increasing their purchases of certificates of deposit, with eight out of twelve types of institutions net buying [2][3]. Group 3: Fund Performance - The performance of various bond funds showed minimal yield differences, with top-performing long-term funds yielding around 0.299% and short-term funds yielding around 0.253% [6][7]. - The overall leverage ratio in the bond market has remained low, with a slight increase to 106.70%, while fund leverage has seen a rebound, indicating a shift in investment strategies [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile state, with the potential for further rate declines, although the pace may not be smooth [5]. - The market is currently in a phase where the effects of previous policy stimuli are diminishing, and economic fundamentals are showing signs of weakening, suggesting a cautious approach moving forward [4][5].