华泰期货研究 2026 年期货市场展望 单边中性，价差关注多 EB 空 BZ 机会。纯苯 2026 年新增投产大于下游投产对纯苯需求的增量，全年纯苯预计进入累库周期，但纯苯加 工费已处于低位，纯苯加工费年度级别看低位震荡，纯苯或维持低波动的弱势震荡。苯乙烯 2026 年投产放缓，下游硬胶仍有投产计划， 但目前苯乙烯港口库存仍偏高，等待 26 年供应放缓后进一步库存去化，可跟踪库存高位去化的节奏介入多 EB 空 BZ 的跨品种交易机会。 跨期方面，BZ 仍偏向反套，EB 则跟踪年度库存去化节奏关注正套机会。 苯乙烯供应放缓，纯苯下游投产乏力 Chemical Research 化工板块研究 本期分析研究员 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 联系人 华泰期货研究院化工板块研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 梁宗泰 陈莉 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 杨露露 从业资格号：F03128371 刘启展 从业资格号：F03140168 梁琦 从业资格号：F03148380 期货研究报告 | EB&纯苯年报 2025-11-30 苯乙烯供应放缓，纯苯下游投产乏力 ...

资管行业步入高质量发展新阶段，证券公司如何布局谋篇，成为市场关注的焦点。 由证券时报社主办的"2025中国证券业资产管理高峰论坛"近日在深圳举办，本次活动吸引了资管行业众多骨干参与，共同探讨新形势下证券业高质量发展 的路径与机遇。 在"后'公募化'时代，券商资管发展机遇与挑战"圆桌论坛环节，参与讨论的嘉宾有华安证券副总裁、华安资管董事长唐泳，山证资管总经理李宏宇，申万 宏源资管首席投资官顾伟，财通资管总经理助理、权益投资总监李响。本场圆桌论坛由国信证券非银金融行业首席分析师孔祥主持。 与会嘉宾围绕"牌照、竞合、基因、协同"等关键词，就券商资管在行业变革期的定位选择、差异化发展路径以及内部协同机制等议题分享见解，为行业转 型升级提供了有益思路。 公募牌照非唯一赛道 "公募牌照"无疑是券商资管无法绕开的话题，影响着券商资管的业务模式与战略布局。手握牌照者思考如何差异化，暂未入场者则在探索如何在现有框架 下做到极致。 财通资管总经理助理、权益投资总监李响表示，公司取得公募牌照至今已有10年，基于券商资管和公募基金双牌照，探索特色化、多元化发展之路，目前 已形成"一主两翼"的业务布局。"一主"是主动管理投研板块，涵盖 ...

Core Viewpoint - The asset management industry is entering a new stage of high-quality development, with a focus on how securities firms can strategically position themselves in this evolving landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends and Challenges - The "2025 China Securities Industry Asset Management Summit Forum" recently held in Shenzhen gathered key players in the asset management sector to discuss paths and opportunities for high-quality development under new circumstances [2]. - Discussions highlighted the importance of "licenses, competition, cooperation, genes, and synergy" in shaping the positioning and development paths of securities firms during this transformative period [4]. Group 2: License and Business Strategy - The topic of "public offering licenses" is crucial for securities firms, influencing their business models and strategic layouts. Firms with licenses are exploring differentiation, while those without are seeking to excel within existing frameworks [5]. - Financial management firms like Caitong Asset Management have developed a diversified business model over the past decade, focusing on active management and a dual-license strategy that includes public and private offerings [5][7]. - Despite challenges, firms like Huazhong Securities are enhancing their product lines and investment capabilities, focusing on "private small collective" products to maintain growth [7][9]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Collaboration - The relationship between securities asset management and other financial institutions is evolving from pure competition to a mix of competition and cooperation. This shift is seen as an opportunity for securities firms to redefine their roles [10]. - Securities asset management is increasingly focusing on high-net-worth clients and non-bank institutions, utilizing various tools such as ABS, REITs, and quantitative strategies to offer multi-asset solutions [10][12]. - The collaboration potential with bank wealth management is significant, especially as banks face transformation pressures, allowing securities firms to leverage their strengths [12]. Group 4: Strategic Development and Client Experience - The future goal for the asset management industry is to enhance user experience through better product offerings, tapping into the vast market of household savings [12][14]. - Securities firms should leverage their strengths in fixed income, FOF, and derivatives to build a multi-strategy platform that maximizes risk-adjusted returns [14]. - The unique "brokerage gene" of securities firms can be transformed into sustainable productivity, enhancing their internal growth and client service capabilities [15]. Group 5: Internal Synergy and Talent Development - Asset management can serve as a talent development base for other business lines within securities firms, providing valuable insights and resources across the organization [15][16]. - The strategic value of asset management is growing, with firms encouraged to refine customer needs and create tailored strategies to enhance client engagement [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - With the peak of autumn maintenance in European and American refineries passing, their operations are gradually resuming, and the most critical period for gasoline supply may have passed. The rhythmic arrival of pure benzene at ports has increased pressure, leading to a further rise in port inventories and suppressing the performance of pure benzene processing fees. Downstream operations remain at a low level during the off - season, with styrene maintaining low - load maintenance, CPL operations dropping further from a low level, and the operations of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid slightly increasing, but terminal demand remains weak [3]. - Overseas, South Korea's Daehan, Lotte, and Hyundai have officially announced a merger and will shut down Lotte's 1.1 million - ton cracking unit. Attention should be paid to whether Lotte's styrene units in South Korea will stop production. In China, port inventories have risen again. Although styrene is still in a low - operation maintenance stage and the resumption plan has been postponed, downstream operations during the off - season are still low. The operation of EPS, which has obvious seasonality, continues to decline, the operation of PS rebounds but inventory pressure remains, and the finished - product inventory pressure of ABS remains high while its operation stays at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Relevant figures include the basis of the pure benzene main contract, the price of the pure benzene main futures contract, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of pure benzene, the trend and basis of the EB main contract, the basis of the EB main contract, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of styrene [7][10][15] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Relevant figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB South Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, the production profit of non - integrated styrene units, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and FOB South Korea pure benzene, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, the difference between FOB Rotterdam pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, the difference between FOB US Gulf styrene and CFR China styrene, and the difference between FOB Rotterdam styrene and CFR China styrene [18][21][36] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operating Rates - Relevant figures involve the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports, the operating rate of pure benzene, the inventory of styrene in East China ports, the operating rate of styrene, the commercial inventory of styrene in East China, and the factory inventory of styrene [38][40][43] IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Relevant figures include the operating rate and production profit of EPS, the operating rate and production profit of PS, and the operating rate and production profit of ABS [51][56][58] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Relevant figures cover the operating rates of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid, as well as the production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular - spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [62][71][75]

Summary of U.S. Fixed Income Markets 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: U.S. Fixed Income Markets - **Company**: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Key Economic Forecasts - **Real GDP Growth**: Projected at 1.8% for 2026, consistent with 2025 pace [5][19] - **Core PCE Inflation**: Expected to moderate slightly to 2.7% [19][28] - **Unemployment Rate**: Anticipated to remain stable at 4.3% [19][25] Interest Rate Expectations - **Federal Reserve Actions**: Anticipated 50 basis points (bp) cuts in January and April 2026 [5][19] - **Treasury Yields**: - 10-year yields expected to rise to 4.25% in Q2 2026 and 4.35% by Q4 2026 [6][19] - 2-year yields projected to remain around 3.51% through mid-year, rising to 3.85% by year-end [18][19] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - **Supply/Demand Imbalance**: Improvement expected in the Treasury market, but spread market technicals may worsen [19][41] - **High-Grade Corporate Spreads**: Forecasted to widen by 15bp to 110bp by year-end 2026 due to heavy supply and weakening credit fundamentals [19][44] - **High-Yield Bond Spreads**: Expected to widen by 30bp to 375bp, with default rates projected at 1.75% [15][19] Sector-Specific Insights - **Agency MBS**: Anticipated to provide modest excess returns despite a projected 5bp widening in OAS [19][28] - **ABS Market**: Expected to remain resilient with stable credit and slightly tighter spreads [11][12] - **CLOs**: Targeting new issue spreads to widen to 130bp, driven by waning exuberance and late-cycle defensiveness [15][46] Risks and Considerations - **Labor Market Risks**: Elevated risks of recession due to cyclical weakening in the labor market [29][30] - **Inflation Risks**: Core inflation expected to remain sticky, complicating the Fed's easing strategy [28][30] - **Regulatory Risks**: Potential impacts from financial deregulation and changes in capital frameworks [38][39] Technical Analysis - **Yield Curve**: Expected to remain range-bound with risks of flattening as the Fed goes on hold [6][19] - **Volatility**: Anticipated decline in shorter-expiry volatility, with longer-expiry volatility expected to increase [37][42] Conclusion - The outlook for the U.S. Fixed Income Markets in 2026 suggests a complex interplay of growth, inflation, and interest rate dynamics, with a focus on maintaining a defensive portfolio amidst macroeconomic uncertainties. The anticipated changes in yields and spreads across various sectors highlight the need for strategic positioning in the evolving market landscape.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, as the peak of autumn maintenance in European and American refineries has passed and the gasoline shortage may have eased, the rhythmic arrival pressure of pure benzene is high, which suppresses its processing fees. Downstream operations are still at a low level, with phenol operations rising but aniline and adipic acid operations falling, and styrene is in the maintenance period waiting for recovery at the end of the month [2]. - For styrene, overseas, South Korean companies plan to merge and close a cracking unit, and attention should be paid to whether the styrene unit will stop. Domestically, port inventories have risen again, and styrene is in a low - operation maintenance stage with postponed restart plans. The focus now is on downstream operations, which are still at a low level [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene's main basis is - 143 yuan/ton (- 32), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 110 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton). Styrene's main basis is 52 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton) [1]. - Suggested strategy: EB2512 - EB2601 for inter - period positive arbitrage at low prices [3]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 99 dollars/ton (- 2 dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 85 dollars/ton (- 4 dollars/ton). Styrene's non - integrated production profit is - 159 yuan/ton (+ 64 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1]. - Suggested strategy: Expand the spread of EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [3]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories and Operating Rates - Pure benzene port inventory is 16.40 tons (+ 1.70 tons). Styrene's East China port inventory is 164,200 tons (+ 15,900 tons), and East China commercial inventory is 94,200 tons (+ 6,900 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage [1]. - Pure benzene downstream: Caprolactam operating rate is 88.23% (+ 2.18%), phenol operating rate is 79.00% (+ 12.00%), aniline operating rate is 75.68% (- 4.49%), adipic acid operating rate is 55.50% (- 6.50%) [1]. - Styrene operating rate is 69.0% (- 0.3%) [1]. 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 31 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 69 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is - 553 yuan/ton (- 60 yuan/ton) [2]. - EPS operating rate is 56.27% (+ 4.64%), PS operating rate is 55.90% (+ 0.50%), ABS operating rate is 72.40% (+ 0.60%) [2]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 820 yuan/ton (+ 30), phenol - ketone production profit is - 415 yuan/ton (+ 0), aniline production profit is 499 yuan/ton (+ 3), adipic acid production profit is - 1263 yuan/ton (- 18) [1].

jis | 品种 | 类別 | 指标 | 10/27 | 11/20 | 11/24 | 11/25 | 11/26 | 日度变化 | 間度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR主力合约(12) | 10995 | 10520 | 10395 | 10270 | 10360 | 90 | -160 | | | | 持つ量 | 49618 | 72012 | 70323 | 68735 | 63030 | -5705 | -8982 | | | 需要 | 成交量 | 131980 | 113304 | 131155 | 114069 | 129096 | 15027 | 15792 | | | | 仓単数量 | 8920 | 12030 | 12500 | 12500 | 15380 | 2880 | 3350 | | | | 虚实比 | 27.81 | 29.93 | 28.13 | 27.49 | 20.49 | -7 | -9 | | | | 顺丁基差 | 5 | 80 | 105 | 230 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session has set clear requirements and strategic deployments for accelerating the construction of a financial power during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, providing fundamental guidelines for financial work [1] Group 1: Financial Development Strategies - The "14th Five-Year" plan emphasizes the development of technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance as essential strategies for enhancing the financial sector's service capabilities to the real economy [2] - China Galaxy Securities has established a closed-loop mechanism for serving national strategies, achieving significant growth in technology finance and green finance, with increases of 637% and 323% respectively in direct financing methods by the end of September this year [2] Group 2: Service Enhancements and Innovations - The company aims to enhance its service capabilities in technology finance by integrating research, funds, investment banking, and direct investment to support enterprises in IPOs and refinancing [3] - A comprehensive green finance service system will be developed, focusing on green bonds, asset securitization, and ESG investment services to support carbon market construction and achieve dual carbon goals [3] - Inclusive finance will be promoted by strengthening financial supply to small and micro enterprises and enhancing investor protection [3] Group 3: Capital Market Development - The "14th Five-Year" plan highlights the need to improve the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems, guiding securities companies in their business operations [4] - China Galaxy Securities has maintained rapid growth in key financial metrics over its 25 years, ranking among the top five in the industry, with a wealth management client base exceeding 18.8 million [4] Group 4: High-Quality Development Focus - The company is committed to high-quality development, aligning its strategies with the "14th Five-Year" plan's major strategies and key tasks, ensuring the political and organizational advantages of the party are fully reflected in its development [7] - The focus will be on high-quality party building, reform and innovation, and foundational strengthening to ensure sustainable growth and risk management [8] Group 5: International Business Expansion - China Galaxy Securities plans to leverage its Southeast Asia business layout and the "Belt and Road" initiative to enhance its international business, aiming to build a cross-border financial service platform [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply - demand balance of styrene may deepen, and visible inventory is expected to maintain a destocking trend. The EB2601 contract is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with technical support around 6270 and resistance around 6600 [2]. - Last week, non - integrated plant losses decreased, and integrated plant profits expanded. Due to the maintenance of Sinochem Quanzhou's 450,000 - tonne plant, domestic styrene supply is expected to decline slightly this week [2]. - Downstream EPS demand is weak with high inventory, and there is a slight downward adjustment expectation for plant operation. PS plants are in a phased recovery state, and ABS plant supply is expected to remain high [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The trading volume of styrene futures (active contract) was 361,779, and the closing price was 6,533 yuan/ton. The 1 - month contract closing price was also 6,533 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active contract increased by 116,537, and the closing price decreased by 5,728 [2]. - The long - position volume of the top 20 holders was 319,939 lots, with a decrease of 3,466 lots; the net long - position volume was - 45,468 lots, an increase of 2,046 lots; the short - position volume was 407,247 lots, a decrease of 7,774 lots; the total warehouse receipt quantity was 200 lots, a decrease of 1,260 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6,636 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 802 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR China intermediate price was 812 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The mainstream prices in Northeast, North, South, and East China were 6,275 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), 6,695 yuan/ton (unchanged), 6,430 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 6,510 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf were 731 US dollars/ton (unchanged), 721 US dollars/ton (unchanged), 639 US dollars/ton (down 2.5 US dollars/ton), and 457 US dollars/ton (down 6 US dollars/ton) respectively [2]. - The spot prices of pure benzene in the US Gulf (FOB), Taiwan (CIF), Rotterdam (FOB) were 661.33 cents/gallon (unchanged), 273 US dollars/ton (down 3 US dollars/ton), and 721 US dollars/ton (down 15 US dollars/ton) respectively. The market prices in South, East, and North China were 5,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5,300 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), and 5,290 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene plant operating rate was 68.95%, a decrease of 0.3%. The national styrene inventory was 188,096 tons, a decrease of 1,335 tons. The total inventory at the East China main port was 164,200 tons, an increase of 15,900 tons, and the trade inventory was 94,200 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 56.27% (up 4.64%), 72.4% (up 0.6%), 55.9% (up 0.5%), 37% (up 1%), and 74.76% (unchanged) respectively [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From November 14th to 20th, China's styrene plant output was 342,900 tons, a decrease of 0.44% from the previous period, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 68.95%, a decrease of 0.3% [2]. - From November 14th to 20th, the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS in the styrene downstream was 269,600 tons, an increase of 3.45% [2]. - As of November 20th, the styrene plant inventory was 188,100 tons, a decrease of 0.70% from the previous week. As of November 24th, the East China port inventory was 164,200 tons, an increase of 10.72% from the previous week, and the South China port inventory was 15,600 tons, an increase of 11.43% from the previous week [2]. - As of November 19th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was - 225 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 139.67 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the pure benzene market, with the peak of autumn maintenance in European and American refineries passing and the resumption of refinery operations, the most critical period for gasoline supply may have passed. The rhythmical arrival of pure benzene at ports increases the pressure, leading to a further rise in port inventories at the beginning of the week, which suppresses the performance of pure benzene processing fees. Downstream operations are still at a low level, with the operation rate of phenol rising, while those of aniline and adipic acid declining. Styrene is still in the maintenance period and is expected to resume operations at the end of the month [2]. - In the styrene market, port inventories did not continue to decline, and the arrival of goods increased rhythmically. Styrene is still in the low - operation maintenance stage, and the resumption plan has been postponed. Attention now shifts to the downstream. Currently, downstream operations are still at a low level. The operation rate of EPS, which has obvious seasonality, is expected to further decline at the end of the year, while those of ABS and PS are slightly rising from a low level, and there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Not elaborated in detail in the summary part, only mentioned figures related to pure benzene's basis and futures contracts, and EB's basis and spreads [1][7][12] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal - External Spreads - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 101 dollars/ton (-10 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 89 dollars/ton (-9 dollars/ton). The profit of downstream products varies, with caprolactam at -850 yuan/ton (+275), phenol - acetone at -415 yuan/ton (+0), aniline at 499 yuan/ton (+3), and adipic acid at -1245 yuan/ton (+23) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is -223 yuan/ton (+30 yuan/ton), with an expected gradual compression [1]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operation Rates - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 16.40 tons (+1.70 tons), and the downstream operation rate is generally low, with the phenol operation rate rising, and those of aniline and adipic acid falling [1][2]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 164,200 tons (+15,900 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 94,200 tons (+6,900 tons), and the operation rate is 69.0% (-0.3%). It is still in the maintenance period, and the resumption plan is postponed [1][2]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operation and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 105 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton), operation rate is 56.27% (+4.64%); PS production profit is 5 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), operation rate is 55.90% (+0.50%); ABS production profit is -493 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton), operation rate is 72.40% (+0.60%). EPS is expected to have a further decline in operation rate at the end of the year, while ABS and PS have a slight increase from a low level, and there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS [1][2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operation and Production Profits - Caprolactam operation rate is 88.23% (+2.18%), phenol operation rate is 79.00% (+12.00%), aniline operation rate is 75.68% (-4.49%), adipic acid operation rate is 55.50% (-6.50%). The production profits of downstream products vary as mentioned above [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy provided. - Basis and Inter - Period: Consider a positive inter - period spread arbitrage for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices. - Cross - Variety: Consider widening the spread for EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [3].