美元资产前景如何？ 戴旻对第一财经分析称，从宏观经济基本面来看，美国整体经济目前仍处于比较偏稳健的阶段。一方 面，美股上市公司的盈利预期从4月"对等关税"宣布后，起初有所下调，但从4月至今，企业盈利增长预 期一直在往上调，三季度盈利预测约在7%~10%之间。此后，如果利率中枢进一步下行，会对盈利产生 更多支撑。另一方面，虽然美国劳动力市场各项数据在走弱，但总体仍处在一个基本平衡的状态。 结合两方面来看，美国整体仍处在向上的经济周期中，只是增长速度会放缓。此外，这种趋势也受到全 球人工智能（AI）发展周期的推动，AI上游的半导体、芯片目前处于上行周期。AI从2022年底到2023 年初开始发展，去年7月到今年4月，半导体行业处在一个短暂下行周期，但从今年5月开始基本从底部 恢复了。AI周期与宏观周期叠加，使得美国市场面对的基本面处于虽然放缓、但仍稳健的状态。 美联储近期终于重启降息，且后续降息路径基本符合市场此前预期。从股票、信贷再到贵金属，许多资 产价格都被推至历史新高或多年最高水平，市场遍布乐观情绪。虽然美联储降息周期对全球市场和风险 情绪是一大利好，但本轮降息又伴随着对美联储独立性受干预的担忧。此外，特朗 ...

Group 1: Technical Analysis of Bond Market - The bond market has completed a "five-wave" cycle and is now transitioning into an adjustment phase, characterized by an "M-top" formation [5][6] - The first wave (March to August 2023) saw a strong bond market due to the end of redemption pressures and weak economic expectations, while the second wave (August to October 2023) experienced a pullback due to profit-taking and local debt supply pressures [5] - Historical comparisons indicate that the decline following the "M-top" formation typically ranges from 30% to 35% of the previous gains [6] Group 2: Global Power Supply and Coal Industry - The global electricity demand is expected to grow at a rate of 4.4% in 2024, significantly outpacing the global GDP growth of 2.9%, driven by industrial electrification, AI-driven data center expansion, and extreme weather impacts [11][12] - Structural bottlenecks in the power supply have not been effectively addressed, leading to a disconnect between electricity generation and availability despite advancements in renewable energy [12] - Coal power remains a critical component of the global energy system, with the U.S. expected to see a 15% increase in coal-fired power generation in 2025, marking a shift in energy development strategies in developed countries [13] Group 3: Solid-State Battery Investment Opportunities - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to become a key focus in high-performance battery development due to their safety and energy density advantages, with significant market potential in consumer batteries and electric vehicles [18] - The Chinese government is investing approximately 6 billion yuan to support solid-state battery research, indicating strong policy backing for this technology [18] - The transition from semi-solid to solid-state battery technology is expected to accelerate, with major automotive and battery companies planning to demonstrate solid-state battery applications by 2027 [20]

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in the bond market, particularly in long-term bond prices, have attracted significant market attention [1] - The adjustment in the bond market is believed to be relatively sufficient, with several supporting factors still in place [2] - The primary reasons for the current bond market adjustment include the "see-saw" effect between the stock and bond markets, high market congestion in the bond market, and short-term emotional disturbances due to new policies and trade negotiations [1][2] Group 2 - The investment logic in the bond market may be shifting, with a greater focus on the performance of the stock market impacting bond market dynamics [2] - If the stock market continues to reach new highs, the bond market may face ongoing pressure; conversely, if the stock market adjusts, the bond market may experience a rebound [2] - Current conditions suggest that the bond market's adjustment space is limited, and there is potential investment value, especially if further declines occur due to overreaction [2]

Group 1 - The overall revenue and profit growth of state-owned banks improved in 1H25, mainly driven by a significant increase in other non-interest income and cost release. Additionally, market interest rates and deposit rates declined, stabilizing the interest margin, leading to a marginal increase in net interest income growth [2][3]. - The asset quality of state-owned banks is relatively strong, with non-performing loan (NPL) ratios and attention rates remaining low and either stable or decreasing. The provision coverage ratio increased, enhancing the safety margin, and the capital adequacy ratio also improved, strengthening the risk resistance capability of these banks [2][4]. - Investment recommendations suggest a shift in the operating model and investment logic of bank stocks from "pro-cyclical" to "weak cycle." During periods of economic stagnation, high dividend yields from bank stocks will remain attractive, and the report continues to favor the stability and sustainability of bank stocks [2][5]. Group 2 - In terms of revenue, the year-on-year growth for 1H25 was +1.5%, with a turnaround from negative to positive growth compared to 1Q25. The net profit saw a slight decline of -0.1% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed compared to the previous quarter. The increase in revenue was largely attributed to the growth in non-interest income, particularly from the stock market [3][7]. - The asset quality analysis indicates that the overall NPL ratio remained stable at 1.27% in 1H25, with a slight decrease in the attention loan ratio. The overdue loan ratio increased slightly but remains low, and the provision coverage ratio rose to 237.50%, further enhancing the safety margin [4][9]. - The report highlights that the cost-to-income ratio for 1H25 was 29.3%, showing a year-on-year decrease, while the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improved to 12.67%, maintaining a high level of capital strength [4][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption of VAT collection on bonds has a short - term positive and long - term negative impact on the bond market, but the overall impact is controllable. In the short term, the cost - performance of existing bonds and credit bonds has increased, and the bond market has risen stage by stage. In the long term, it may be unfavorable to the bond market. The probability of the bond market breaking through the previous low has decreased, and it may still fluctuate in the range of 1.65% - 1.70%. Attention should be paid to the primary issuance rate of new bonds after August 8 and the impact of macro factors on the risk preference of the bond market [2]. - When summarizing the views of fixed - income sellers on the resumption of VAT collection, there are bullish, neutral/ bearish views. Half of the fixed - income sellers are bullish on the bond market this week, but the sentiment has declined compared with last week. The sentiment of fixed - income buyers is relatively cautious, and nearly 70% are neutral [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted index of the seller sentiment this week is 0.33, and the unweighted index is 0.47, both showing a decline compared with last week. The current institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 15 bullish, 14 neutral, and 1 bearish. 50% of the institutions are bullish, and 47% are neutral, and 3% are bearish [13]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index of buyers this week is 0.08, and the unweighted index is 0.11, with the unweighted index decreasing by 0.08 compared with last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 6 bullish, 19 neutral, and 3 bearish. 21% of the institutions are bullish, 68% are neutral, and 11% are bearish [14]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include preventive redemptions of wealth management products and a decline in the scale of credit - bond ETFs. The preventive redemptions of wealth management products are due to the central bank's continuous net withdrawal and tightened capital, leading to selling pressure on credit bonds. The growth of credit - bond ETFs has slowed down, and the subsequent increase in ETFs may fall short of expectations [19]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - Institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view this week, with 10 bullish and 3 neutral. 77% of the institutions are bullish, and 23% are neutral [22]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - As of August 1, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts of treasury bonds have all increased, while the trading volume, open interest, and trading - to - open - interest ratio have all decreased [26][27]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - On August 1, the turnover rates of 30 - year treasury bonds and interest - rate bonds decreased, while the turnover rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds increased [32][36]. 2.3 Basis Trading - As of August 1, the basis and net basis of the main contracts have all narrowed, and the IRR has generally increased [41][44]. 2.4 Inter - delivery Spread and Inter - variety Spread - The inter - delivery spread of the TL contract has widened, while the spreads of other main contracts have narrowed. Among the inter - variety spreads, except for the 2*TF - T contract, the spreads of other main contracts have narrowed [51][52].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the adjustment mechanism for the predetermined interest rate in the life insurance sector has been triggered, which is expected to alleviate the pressure from interest rate differentials [3][4][5] Group 2 - On July 25, the insurance industry association held a meeting and determined that the current research value for the predetermined interest rate of ordinary life insurance products is 1.99% [3] - The low interest rate environment has led to high liability costs for insurance companies, raising concerns about interest rate differentials. A dynamic adjustment mechanism is beneficial for timely reductions in predetermined interest rates based on market rates [3] - Since 2025, the 10-year government bond yield has generally ranged between 1.6% and 1.9%, while the upper limit for the predetermined interest rate of ordinary life insurance products is 2.5%, indicating ongoing asset-liability matching pressures [3] - The insurance industry association will publish the research value for predetermined interest rates quarterly, and if the maximum predetermined interest rate of products sold exceeds the research value by 25 basis points for two consecutive quarters, adjustments will be made [3] - As of July 25, China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance announced that they will adjust the maximum guaranteed interest rates for new products, with reductions of 50 basis points for traditional insurance, 25 basis points for participating insurance, and 50 basis points for universal insurance [4] - The adjustment of predetermined interest rates is expected to alleviate the risk of interest rate differentials, with floating income products becoming a future transformation direction for the industry [4] - Since May 20, the interest rates for three- and five-year fixed deposits at major state-owned banks have generally fallen below 1.5%, making savings insurance products still relatively attractive [4] - The adjustment of predetermined interest rates is expected to further reduce the cost of new business liabilities and improve the risk of interest rate differentials in the long term [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in investment strategy for non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) in the second quarter, moving from a focus on rate bonds to a significant increase in credit bonds and asset-backed securities (ABS) due to a record high in wealth management scale reaching 31.5 trillion yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In the second quarter, funding conditions are similar to the same period last year, but market conditions are characterized by limited curve space and a lack of cost-effectiveness, leading to cautious institutional sentiment [1]. - The current asset scarcity is more structural, with the overall degree of asset scarcity being significantly lower than the same period last year [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The strategy recommended is to adopt a "last third of the first half" approach, focusing on selecting high-yield individual bonds [1][2]. - There is a notable preference for short-duration credit bonds among investors, with a clear trend of differentiation in market evolution [2][4]. Group 3: Fund Flows - After a peak in May, the scale of money market fund repurchase has stabilized, and net purchases of cash bonds have surged since June, indicating that NBFIs have begun to increase their allocations [2][4]. - Since the end of March, NBFIs have become the main source of incremental funds in the market, coinciding with a rapid decline in certificate of deposit yields and significant growth in bank absorption of non-bank funds [1].

Market Overview - The successful outcome of the China-US-Switzerland talks on May 12 significantly boosted global risk appetite, leading to a general rise in global stock indices[5] - In May, the 20-year US Treasury auction was cold, with the final yield at 5.047%, raising concerns about US fiscal pressure[6] Global Fund Flows - In May, global equity funds saw a significant outflow from emerging markets, totaling $8.3 billion, while developed markets experienced an inflow of $30.5 billion[13] - Developed European equity funds received inflows of $24.7 billion, while Chinese equity funds faced a substantial outflow of $10.9 billion[25] China Market Dynamics - In May, China's fixed income market saw a notable inflow of $4.9 billion, while the equity market experienced a significant outflow[15] - The inflow ratio for Chinese fixed income funds was 5.6%, while the equity market saw a -1.1% outflow ratio[14] Sector Performance - In the US, there was a marked outflow from the technology sector, while industrials, telecommunications, and infrastructure saw inflows[41] - The inflow into US corporate bonds reached $39.4 billion in May, reversing the previous month's outflow of $23.2 billion[27] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected economic downturns in the US, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and higher-than-expected tariffs from the Trump administration[36]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Changes - The easing of US-China tariff tensions has led to a rapid steepening of the bond market, with limited short-term adjustment space expected [1][2] - Long-term bond yields are unlikely to fully recover from previous declines, with resistance levels identified at 1.70% for 10-year bonds and 1.95% for 30-year bonds [2][3] - The current monetary policy environment is expected to remain accommodative, with a significant amount of liquidity in the market, enhancing the attractiveness of long bonds [2][3] Group 2: Mid-term Market Outlook - The bond yield curve is anticipated to steepen during the recovery period, with short-term rates benefiting from the current liquidity conditions [3] - The market's sensitivity to trade tensions has decreased, suggesting that future fluctuations in trade policy may have limited impact on risk appetite [3][4] - Investment strategies should focus on mid to short-duration bonds, credit bonds, and leveraged strategies as the market adjusts [3][4] Group 3: Long-term Market Perspective - The narrative surrounding long-term bond yields is shifting towards a more confident outlook, with expectations for lower yield limits being revised upwards [4] - The previous strategy of "buying every dip" may reach its limits, indicating a need for a more cautious approach in bond market investments [4] - Historical trends suggest a transition towards a strategy focused on bond selection rather than timing, favoring mid to short-duration bonds with higher carry [4]

Core Viewpoints - The necessity to enhance domestic demand policies to counteract the potential impacts of slowing external demand, thereby solidifying the recovery of domestic demand since the first quarter [1][4] - The market consensus on a clear mainline for policy response is still awaited, indicating that the timing for a more aggressive market approach is not yet ripe [1][7] Economic Performance - China's GDP growth in the first quarter exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [2][4] - Retail sales grew by 4.6%, and fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4.2% [2] - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.3%, and per capita disposable income rose to 12,179 yuan, reflecting a nominal increase of 5.5% [2] Trade and External Factors - The trade surplus contributed 2.2 percentage points to the nominal GDP growth in the first quarter, up from 1.9 percentage points in the previous quarter [4] - A decline in container bookings to the U.S. by 67% in the first week of April indicates potential headwinds for exports in the second quarter [4] Investment Strategies - Recommendations to maintain a defensive investment strategy in light of ongoing global uncertainties, with a focus on safe assets such as gold and government bonds [5][21] - Emphasis on sectors benefiting from domestic demand and those that have been undervalued due to market sentiment, particularly in the context of "China Special Valuation" and "Science and Technology Valuation" [6][10] Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile, with a need for further observation of policy impacts before a clear bullish trend can be established [7][19] - The potential for a gradual decrease in funding rates as macroeconomic stimulus measures are anticipated to be implemented [17]