绿色柯伊伯带

Search documents
业绩之锚2:A股如何定价一季报中的超预期?
China Post Securities· 2025-05-07 07:20
Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the A-share market places significant importance on the performance of companies' first-quarter reports, particularly focusing on the "performance expectation difference" strategy, which has shown a higher success rate compared to other reporting periods since 2010 [4][15][27] - The report indicates that the probability of achieving excess returns from companies with better-than-expected first-quarter results is significantly higher than in other reporting periods, with a success rate of 51.4% and 49.5% over 30 and 60 days post-announcement, respectively [16][17][21] - It highlights that the A-share market exhibits clear industry preferences when pricing first-quarter performance, favoring consumer sectors (food and beverage, home appliances, retail) and growth sectors (electronics, pharmaceuticals, power equipment, defense) over real estate and financial sectors [4][29][36] Group 2 - The report notes that the performance growth rate and the extent of exceeding expectations are not always positively correlated, as certain levels of performance exceeding expectations can be perceived negatively by investors due to concerns about sustainability and future high baselines [5][45] - It states that in 2025, only 21.78% of companies exceeded performance expectations in their first-quarter reports, which is below the historical average since 2010, indicating a lack of strong performance validation opportunities [5][63] - The report suggests that in the absence of clear performance guidance at the industry level, investors should focus on individual stock alpha opportunities, utilizing a mixed strategy based on industry preferences and performance expectation reactions to construct a portfolio [5][62][63] Group 3 - The report outlines that the A-share market's pricing logic for company performance is based on the "performance expectation difference," with first-quarter reports receiving the most positive feedback for exceeding expectations compared to other reporting periods [27][40] - It identifies that the sectors with the highest success rates for exceeding expectations in the first quarter include food and beverage, home appliances, and electronics, while real estate and financial sectors lag behind [28][29][31] - The report also discusses the construction of a feasible performance expectation strategy portfolio, which combines industry preferences and performance expectation reaction mechanisms, showing consistent excess returns in May from 2020 to 2024 [62][63]