金十数据6月16日讯，据财经网站Forexlive，预计日本央行将维持利率在0.5%不变，并从2026财年开始 放缓缩减债券购买的步伐。几乎没有人预期日本央行会改变目前的计划，只会宣布在下一财年调整，将 季度缩减规模降至2000亿日元左右。如果日本央行宣布对当前财年进行调整，那将是一个意外，并将对 日元造成很大影响。更快的缩减步伐将提振日元，而更慢的步伐将削弱日元。在利率方面，市场预计今 年的加息幅度仅为17个基点，也就是说年底前加息25个基点的可能性基本为50%。日本央行发言人的评 论大致相同，没有任何迹象表明短期内会进行利率调整。他们继续把大量精力放在美日贸易协定和通胀 的演变上。日本的潜在通胀一直在稳步上升，这应该会使加息的可能性居高不下，尤其是考虑到美日最 终将达成一项贸易协议。因此，要注意更多关于利率变化和时机的明确信号。 日本央行利率决议前瞻：焦点将集中在放慢缩减购债的计划上 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC's global research team anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current interest rates and continue its plan to reduce the scale of Japanese government bond purchases until the first quarter of 2026 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Outlook** - HSBC expects the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting [1] - **Bond Purchase Reduction Plan** - The current pace of reducing Japanese government bond purchases is approximately 4 trillion yen per quarter, which is projected to decrease the monthly purchase scale from 5.7 trillion yen in July 2024 to 3 trillion yen by March 2025 [1] - By the fiscal year 2026, the quarterly purchase volume is expected to slow down to about 2 trillion yen [1] - By March 2027, the monthly purchase volume is anticipated to reach around 2 trillion yen, which HSBC considers a "natural" level, reflecting the amount purchased before the introduction of ultra-loose monetary policy in April 2013 [1]

订阅日本央行动态 +订阅 金十数据5月22日讯，日本央行审议委员野口旭表示，个人认为无需对现有的日本央行缩减购债计划做 出重大调整。日本央行可以花费足够的时间来缩减其资产负债表，这对于市场稳定是有益的。关于2026 年4月起的缩减计划，我们需要从更长远的角度进行审慎评估。 日本央行官员：无需对现有的缩减购债计划做出重大调整 ...