（原标题：日本增发巨额国债刺激经济，债汇遭抛售或触发全球债市风暴） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 日本政府再为财政刺激计划融资。 11月28日，据央视新闻报道，日本政府正计划通过大规模增发国债，来为新一轮经济刺激方案提供资 金。据了解，日本政府将增发约11.7万亿日元、约合5299亿元人民币的国债，来覆盖上周公布的大规模 经济对策带来的支出缺口，这份大规模经济对策所涉及的2025年度补充预算案在日本内阁会议上被敲定 后，将提交给正在召开的临时国会，取得在野党支持后，力争在12月获得通过。 尽管日本财务省预计本财年税收收入将达到创纪录的80.7万亿日元，但由于多次祭出经济刺激方案，日 本新增的债务规模仍远超前任首相发行的债券数量。 出于对日本长期财政前景的担忧，近期投资者持续抛售日元和日债。截至28日下午6点，日元兑美元仍 处于156的低位，日本长期国债收益率仍保持上涨。 日元、日债被持续抛售，或意味着外界忧虑日本政府难以兑现经济刺激和维护财政责任之间的平衡。为 什么日本政府还要冒险发行巨额新债？市场上"抛售日本"的交易可能会引致怎样的风险？ 上周，日本政府敲定了规模约为21.3万亿日元的综合经济对策。 ...

在众议院获得多数席位，将使高市早苗拥有足够票数通过预计于周五公布的日本政府补充预算，以及拟 于12月编制的年度预算。 有日本媒体周四报道称，日本首相高市早苗看起来将在日本国会系统中权力最大的众议院获得微弱的多 数席位优势，主要原因是一个小型议员党派团体将加入她所领导的执政联盟。 据媒体报道，由"日本改革协会"("Reform Association")议员联盟所属的三名日本国会议员，已决定加入 由高市早苗领导的自民党与其合作伙伴日本维新会(Japan Innovation Party，简称Ishin)所组成的日本联合 执政联盟。 报道称，新增这三名议员将把高市早苗领导的日本联合执政联盟在众议院的总席位数提升至233席，从 而在这个拥有465个席位的议院中取得微弱多数优势。媒体报道称，这三人计划于当地时间周五寻求自 民党的书面批准以加入该执政联盟。 如果执政联盟如报道所述的那样扩大，这将是强化高市早苗在国会主导地位的又一利好进展。由于其前 任石破茂在日本国会选举中表现疲弱，高市早苗在上月出任首相时，其领导的日本联合执政联盟在国会 两院中都未能获得多数席位优势。 现年64岁的高市是一名保守民族主义者，将英国前首相 ...

Core Points - The Japanese government plans to issue more new bonds to finance its economic stimulus package, with the new bond scale expected to exceed the previous fiscal year's level [1][4] - The supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 is estimated at approximately 18.3 trillion yen, funded by issuing 11.7 trillion yen in government bonds [1][4] - The government aims to control borrowing by utilizing a tax revenue surplus of 2.9 trillion yen, about 1 trillion yen in non-tax revenue, and approximately 2.7 trillion yen in unused funds from the previous fiscal year [1][4] Economic Stimulus Plan - The comprehensive economic stimulus plan approved by the Japanese government amounts to 21.3 trillion yen, marking the largest stimulus measure since the pandemic began [4] - The plan addresses various areas, including inflation relief, strategic industry investment, and defense spending [4] - Specific allocations include 2.95 trillion yen for inflation response, 1.5 trillion yen for key sectors like AI and shipbuilding, and 1.3 trillion yen for defense [5][6] Fiscal Concerns - Concerns about Japan's long-term fiscal situation under Prime Minister Kishi's administration have led to increased investor anxiety, with long-term government bond yields reaching over 20-year highs [7] - The dollar to yen exchange rate is reported at 155.95, while the 20-year and 30-year government bond yields are at 3.329% and 3.677%, respectively [7] - To stabilize market sentiment, Prime Minister Kishi indicated that the total government bond issuance for the current fiscal year would be lower than the previous year, with a total issuance of 40.3 trillion yen expected for fiscal year 2025 [9]

来源：金融界AI电报 Helaba的Samuel Will在一份报告中称，日本的财政状况依然紧张，2026年预算有可能出现恶化，而日本 国债收益率正反映了这一点。这位外汇策略师称："在预算平衡状况近年来有所改善，甚至趋向于预算 平衡之后，我们预计2026年会出现恶化。"他称，日本国债已经以更高的风险溢价对预期的政府支出增 加作出了反应。"政府正通过投资和加强防卫能力来专注于增长，但必须密切关注债务上升和地缘政治 紧张局势升温的风险。"据伦敦证券交易所集团的数据，10年期日本国债收益率下跌1.9个基点，至 1.792%，30年期日本国债收益率上涨0.4个基点，至3.331%。 ...

Core Points - The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, has approved a comprehensive economic stimulus plan totaling 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 965.6 billion RMB), marking the first major economic initiative since Kishida took office [1] - The core of this plan includes a supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025, with general account expenditures reaching 17.7 trillion yen, the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily aimed at alleviating the cost of living for households [1][6] - Concerns have been raised by major investment banks regarding the effectiveness of this fiscal expansion in stimulating the economy, especially in light of Japan's labor shortages and rising debt risks [4][12] Economic Measures - The 17.7 trillion yen supplementary budget significantly exceeds last year's 13.9 trillion yen, representing a 27% increase [6] - Key allocations include 8.9 trillion yen for price relief and improving living standards, with direct financial support measures such as energy cost subsidies and child allowances [9][10] - The government plans to provide 7,000 yen in subsidies for electricity and gas bills per household and 20,000 yen per child for families with children under 18, without income restrictions [9][10] Fiscal Concerns - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have expressed skepticism about the stimulus's potential impact, citing Japan's labor shortages and the risk of exacerbating debt and fiscal deficits [4][12] - Japan's public debt is projected to reach 1,350 trillion yen (approximately 8.8 trillion USD), with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 263%, the highest among major economies [14][19] - The anticipated fiscal deficit for 2025 could be around 10 trillion yen, approximately 1.5% of Japan's GDP, raising concerns about the sustainability of government debt [14][15] Inflation and Economic Growth - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen for 49 consecutive months, with a 2.9% year-on-year increase as of September [9] - The ongoing inflationary pressures and stagnant wage growth are dampening consumer spending, leading to cautious consumer sentiment [12] - Experts warn that the current fiscal policies may only provide temporary relief without addressing underlying supply-side issues, potentially leading to further inflation [22][30] Labor Market and Corporate Impact - The labor market is facing significant challenges, with a declining trend in new job openings and rising minimum wage standards, which may pressure small and medium-sized enterprises [13][25] - The disparity in labor distribution rates between large and small enterprises indicates that while large firms have room for wage increases, small businesses are struggling to maintain profitability [25] - The government's focus on defense spending, projected to exceed 11 trillion yen, may further strain fiscal resources and lead to misallocation of funds [26][30]

日本政府正计划通过大规模增发债券来为新一轮经济刺激方案提供资金。 11月26日，据媒体援引知情人士透露，日本首相高市早苗政府计划发行至少11.5万亿日元（约合735亿美元）的新债券，为上周公布的经济刺激方 案提供资金。该补充预算案预计将于本周五在日本内阁会议上获得批准。 尽管日本财务省预计本财年税收收入将达到创纪录的80.7万亿日元，但新增的债务规模仍远超一年前为资助前首相石破茂的经济措施而发行的6.7 万亿日元债券。 得益于近期的薪资上涨和通胀推高了个人所得税和消费税收入，日本税收创新高。 据报道援引消息人士称，预计截至2026年3月的财年，日本税收总额将达到创纪录的80.7万亿日元，连续第六年创下新高。这一数字比最初预算中 的估计高出2.9万亿日元。 日本财务省认为，这笔约3万亿日元的盈余可以用来限制借贷需求。然而，即便有创纪录的税收，政府仍需大幅举债来应对高昂的刺激支出。 由于担忧日本的长期财政前景，投资者持续抛售日元和日本国债，推动长期国债收益率在本月早些时候升至二十多年来的高点，而美元兑日元汇 率则持续在高位徘徊。 （美元兑日元汇率在年内高位徘徊） 创纪录税收仍难覆盖支出 对高市早苗领导下日本长期财 ...

这一次的日元贬值，不再是缓慢的螺旋式下行，而是跳崖式暴跌。 2025年11月21日，日元兑美元汇率直逼157.3：1，单日贬值1.8%，这是市场经济里赤裸裸的惊涛骇浪。 日本官方坐不住了，财务大臣片山皋月罕见地发出"最强烈警告"，一副准备出手干预市场的架势。 但说句大实话，日本这点儿"底子"，还有能出几招？恐怕他们自己心里也没谱。 关键在于，这场汇率崩盘背后，不止是经济数据失控，更是一出政治与现实脱节的"自导自演"：高市早苗上台后的一系列激进操作，正迅速地将日本推向一 个观光冷清、财政爆雷、资本逃逸的怪圈。 这次的日元危机，不是市场的恶意惩罚，而是日本自酿的报应。 先把"致命三连"理一理：贬值、通胀、萎缩。 结果很快显现，日债遭遇市场大抛售，40年期国债收益率飙到3.695%，创下历史峰值，20年期国债收益率升到2.815%，是1999年以来新高。 日元汇率从2021年的102跌到如今的157+，已经是超过50%的贬值幅度，而这还不是谷底。更严重的是，日元贬值没有带动出口繁荣，反而引发了进口成本 飙升，直接把通胀推爆。 2025年10月的通胀数据显示，日本核心CPI同比上涨3.0%，这已经是连续50个月上涨， ...

Group 1: Currency Depreciation and Economic Impact - The Japanese yen has weakened significantly against the US dollar, dropping below 157.9, marking a 10-month low, with a nominal effective exchange rate reaching 71.4, close to intervention levels from July 2024 [1] - Since the election of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the yen has depreciated approximately 6% [1] - The depreciation of the yen is linked to rising government bond yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 1.825%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, and the 20-year and 40-year yields hitting 2.853% and 3.747%, respectively [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Debt Concerns - The Japanese cabinet approved a supplementary budget of 21.3 trillion yen for fiscal year 2025, the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic, raising concerns about increasing government debt and its sustainability [2] - Japan's government debt as a percentage of GDP has exceeded international warning levels, and the stimulus plan will require additional bond issuance, further inflating the debt burden [2] - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% in Q3, marking the first economic shrinkage in six quarters, which raises doubts about the yen's strength [2] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy Signals - The depreciation of the yen has led to increased import prices, contributing to domestic inflation, with the core CPI rising 3.0% in October, remaining above the 2% target for 50 consecutive months [3] - Despite the inflationary pressures, the Bank of Japan has maintained a policy interest rate of 0.5%, citing economic weakness as a constraint on rate hikes [3] - Recent comments from Bank of Japan officials indicate a shift towards a more hawkish stance, suggesting that discussions on the feasibility and timing of interest rate hikes are forthcoming [4][5] Group 4: Global Financial Implications - The significant depreciation of the yen may negatively impact global liquidity, as the yen has been used as a funding currency for investments in higher-yielding assets like US Treasuries and equities [2] - The potential for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan is influenced by the Federal Reserve's decisions, with a stable or rising US interest rate potentially exacerbating yen depreciation [5]

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 分析人士指出，日元资产大跌可能会对全球流动性产生潜在不利影响。由于长期低利率环境，日元成为 全球融资货币，投资者利用日本的低利率，借入日元投资于美债、美股等高收益资产，进行套息交易， 而日债收益率上行可能触发日元套利交易平仓。 徐嘉琦表示，日债收益率的持续上行，可能导致套息交易减少，促使日本投资者资本回流，平仓海外头 寸并减少美元资产敞口，从而放大美股、美债等资产的下行风险，加剧全球金融市场波动。 "同时，日债暴跌打破了投资者对日本国债安全资产的预期，考虑到美国等其他发达经济体也面临债务 和通胀压力，日本债市波动和政府债务风险的相互强化可能会传染至其他发达经济体，推升这些国家长 期国债的期限溢价，进而催化全球长期国债收益率上行风险。"她表示。 易峘指出，此次补充预算规模21.3万亿日元，超过市场之前预期的17万亿-20万亿日元，补充预算占 2025财年日本GDP的2.8%，比2024财年提高0.4个百分点。往前看，对财政可持续性的担忧或推升日本 长端国债的风险溢价，导致长端国债的流动性进一步恶化。 "高市早苗刚上台时，市场对她还是有一个比较正向的预期的，对日本市场也是偏乐观，但是近期发 ...

Group 1 - The weakening of the yen, combined with expectations of large-scale economic stimulus, supports the possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1] - Domestic demand remains resilient due to strong wage growth and improved household confidence, with economic growth expected to return to positive territory in Q4 [1] - The likelihood of a rate hike during the Bank of Japan's meeting on December 18-19 has increased, and the yen is currently undervalued, potentially strengthening before the meeting [1] Group 2 - Japanese government bonds may see rising yields due to market expectations that the economic stimulus measures will exceed forecasts, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [1] - The Bank of Japan's quantitative tightening policy, initiated in August 2024, aims to reduce its holdings of Japanese government bonds, leading to a significant decrease in domestic bank purchases [1] - The government is worried about the yen's depreciation, particularly if the USD/JPY approaches 160, which may prompt foreign exchange intervention [2]