2025 年 05 月 22 日 证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年美债到期压力有多大？ 海外市场观察系列之一 分析师：蔡梦苑 分析师登记编码：S0890521120001 电话：021-20321004 邮箱：caimengyuan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 投资要点 分析师：刘芳 美债实际的到期压力相对可控。尽管美债 5-7 月存在集中到期的压力，但短 债占比较高。考虑到短债市场流动性相对充足，展期压力整体可控。除短期国 债外，美国其他期限的国债到期分布相对较为平稳，未出现集中兑付峰值，到 期压力不高。由于一年以内利率上升的幅度有限，短期国债到期滚续带来的额 外利息支出压力有限。后续利息支出负担增加的压力主要来源于中期国债的到 期，2025 年来源于美国中期国债的新增利息支出约为 266 亿美元。 销售服务电话： 相关研究报告 2025 年美债到期引发的流动性冲击整体可控，当前可以择机进行美债配 置。当前 10 年期美债收益率受到评级下调、减 ...

Group 1: Debt Maturity Analysis - In 2025, the U.S. national debt maturity is projected to be $10.8 trillion, which is similar to the $10.6 trillion in 2024, but significantly higher than levels prior to 2023[4] - The perception of a "debt maturity wall" in 2025 is largely due to statistical misinterpretation, as Bloomberg's methodology only captures a portion of the debt maturing within a specific timeframe[3] - The correct approach to analyze debt maturity is to use a consistent observation date each year, which reveals that the increase in 2025 is not as drastic as initially thought[12] Group 2: Short-term Debt Pressure - The months of May and June 2025 are expected to see a spike in debt maturity, primarily driven by short-term debt, creating an illusion of a significant upcoming maturity wall[21] - The short-term debt issuance has increased significantly since October 2023, due to a shift in the U.S. Treasury's debt issuance strategy[25] - The upcoming debt maturity structure indicates that while short-term debt will see fluctuations, long-term debt remains relatively stable[21] Group 3: Market Implications - The high levels of debt maturity could increase supply pressure in the bond market, making it difficult for U.S. Treasury yields to decline[33] - The current financial market liquidity has not fully recovered, which may exacerbate the impact of the upcoming debt maturities[33] - The ongoing discussions regarding the debt ceiling may limit adjustments to fiscal deficits and debt issuance in the near term, maintaining a similar pace of debt maturity as in 2024[25]