Group 1 - The "national team" continued to increase its holdings, with an estimated total purchase of over 200 billion in ETFs during the second quarter [3][11][12] - The public funds' allocation to Hong Kong stocks reached a historical high, with the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in actively managed equity funds reaching 16.85%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.12% [13][15] - Tencent has become the largest holding for public funds for two consecutive quarters, with four Hong Kong stocks among the top ten holdings [13][14] Group 2 - The second quarter saw a significant increase in the holdings of ETFs, particularly in the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000, and CSI 500 ETFs [11][12] - The public funds that can invest in Hong Kong stocks have increased to 50.97%, with the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in these funds reaching 33% [15][16] - The net inflow of funds in the secondary market has turned into a slight net inflow, with financing balances rising and net purchases of financing reaching 265.9 billion [32][41] Group 3 - The market sentiment has shown increased trading activity, particularly in the healthcare, TMT, and ChiNext indices [52][56] - The sectors that attracted significant net inflows included computer, non-bank financials, and media, while sectors like healthcare and electric equipment experienced net outflows [56][57] - The overall market performance indicated a preference for large-cap growth stocks over small-cap value stocks [6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the **Chinese bond market** and its dynamics, including interest rates, government debt supply, and macroeconomic factors affecting the market. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Bond Market Performance**: In June, the bond market experienced overall fluctuations, with real bond yields slightly decreasing to approximately 1.65%. The central bank's unexpected reverse repurchase operations supported liquidity, while U.S.-China tariff negotiations and geopolitical conflicts influenced market sentiment [1][5][16]. 2. **Interest Rate Trends**: The bond market's yield rates have shown a trend of first rising and then falling throughout the year, stabilizing at lower levels due to the long-term U.S.-China trade tensions and the central bank's growth-stabilizing policies [3][19]. 3. **Government Debt Supply**: It is anticipated that the supply of government bonds will peak in July 2025, with special government bonds expected to exceed 190 billion and ordinary bonds net financing around 280 billion. The net supply of government bonds in July could reach approximately 3 trillion, which is expected to have a minimal impact on the market [4][14]. 4. **Inflation and CPI Predictions**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to hover around 0% year-on-year, with pork prices declining and oil prices rising due to geopolitical tensions. Core CPI is projected to recover moderately, influenced by seasonal factors, but the internal driving force for consumption recovery remains weak [7][8]. 5. **Export Growth Outlook**: Exports maintained a positive growth of 4.8% in May, supported by resilient demand from ASEAN, India, and Europe. However, there is a risk of negative growth in export rates in the second half of the year, particularly as the U.S. stance on tariffs may change as the tariff exemption period approaches its end [9][2]. 6. **Institutional Investment Behavior**: Public funds became the largest holders of interest rate bonds in June, increasing their holdings by approximately 500 billion compared to May. They shifted their strategy from short-term bonds to longer-term and ultra-long-term bonds [18][17]. 7. **Market Liquidity and Central Bank Policies**: The liquidity in the financial market remains relatively loose, with the central bank's actions expected to maintain this trend. The overall monetary policy is anticipated to remain accommodative, with a focus on potential structural monetary policy tools to support key projects [15][19]. 8. **PMI and Economic Activity**: The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is close to the threshold line, indicating a slight recovery in economic activity. However, corporate profit data suggests ongoing pressures in production and operations, which may limit further PMI recovery [11]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The notes highlight the importance of monitoring the upcoming political bureau meeting for potential new policies that could impact the market [19]. - The potential for a shift in investment strategies among institutions as they respond to changing market conditions and central bank policies is emphasized [10][17].

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 06 月 17 日 融资资金延续净流入，政府债券贡献社融主要增量 ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（0617） 5 月信贷数据主要由政府贡献边际增量，居民端与企业端表现较为平淡。资金 面来看，上周二级市场可跟踪资金小幅净流出，ETF 持续净流出，融资资金保 持净流入。往后看，即将进入半年报业绩预披露窗口，偏质量及权重风格有望 继续占优。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与 流动性指数——A 股市流动性研 究之四》，2016 年 8 月 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股 票市场 SCP 范式研究之一》， 2017 年 10 月 3. 《香港利率位于极低水平，融 资资金重回净流入——金融市场 流动性与监管动态周报（0610）》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 11.55↓ | | ETF 净申购 | -149.39↓ | | 融资净买入 | 80.22↑ | | 资金需求 | | | 限售解禁 | 624.10↑ | | IPO ...

Core Viewpoint - The New York Federal Reserve plans to incorporate early settlement operations of a key liquidity support tool into its regular schedule to enhance and strengthen this liquidity tool, supporting stable financial market operations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) agreed in March to "significantly slow" the pace of balance sheet reduction to prevent excessive liquidity withdrawal from the market [1] - The New York Fed's recent normalization of early repurchase operations is seen as a measure to ensure market stability and liquidity, especially in light of volatility in the U.S. Treasury market due to tariff policies [1][6] - The Fed is expanding the liquidity "insurance layer" in financial markets to prevent short-term funding mismatches and liquidity shortages during high yield fluctuations [1][7] Group 2: Market Reactions and Concerns - The global financial market's renewed focus on the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) follows significant volatility in the U.S. Treasury market triggered by new trade policies [5] - Concerns about market movements due to trade policy uncertainty have led to a "real and significant" deterioration in financial market liquidity, although the repo market has shown resilience [5][6] - The New York Fed had already begun providing additional daily repo operations before the recent market volatility, aiming to prevent repo market rates from exceeding the Fed's target range [6] Group 3: Future Implications - The adjustments in monetary policy reflect the Fed's intention to add safety measures against potential funding mismatches in a high-rate environment, avoiding a repeat of the 2019 liquidity crisis [7] - The FOMC noted that while reserves remain high at approximately $3 trillion, certain indicators are nearing buffer limits, necessitating caution to avoid approaching critical points similar to those in 2019 [7] - If the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% again, the Fed may consider pausing balance sheet reduction or even targeted expansion to stabilize the financial market's benchmark interest rate corridor [7]

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 05 月 06 日 港币触及强方兑换保证，美国非农数据超预期 ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（0506） 五一期间人民币、港币汇率大幅走高，港币兑美元升值至强方兑换保证水平。 从历史数据看，港币触及强方兑换保证后 A/H 股大概率表现较好。海外方面美 国 4 月非农数据超预期，市场对于首次降息时点预期延后至 7 月。展望 5 月， 市场可能会呈现"权重指数回升，科技成长活跃"的格局。风格方面，偏科技、 中小风格有望重新回归。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与 流动性指数——A 股市流动性研 究之四》，2016 年 8 月 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股 票市场 SCP 范式研究之一》， 2017 年 10 月 3. 《银行理财规模持续上升，ETF 转为净流出——金融市场流动性 与监管动态周报(0429)》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 91.02↓ | | ETF 净申购 | -143.82↓ | | 融资净买入 | ...

Group 1: Debt Maturity Analysis - In 2025, the U.S. national debt maturity is projected to be $10.8 trillion, which is similar to the $10.6 trillion in 2024, but significantly higher than levels prior to 2023[4] - The perception of a "debt maturity wall" in 2025 is largely due to statistical misinterpretation, as Bloomberg's methodology only captures a portion of the debt maturing within a specific timeframe[3] - The correct approach to analyze debt maturity is to use a consistent observation date each year, which reveals that the increase in 2025 is not as drastic as initially thought[12] Group 2: Short-term Debt Pressure - The months of May and June 2025 are expected to see a spike in debt maturity, primarily driven by short-term debt, creating an illusion of a significant upcoming maturity wall[21] - The short-term debt issuance has increased significantly since October 2023, due to a shift in the U.S. Treasury's debt issuance strategy[25] - The upcoming debt maturity structure indicates that while short-term debt will see fluctuations, long-term debt remains relatively stable[21] Group 3: Market Implications - The high levels of debt maturity could increase supply pressure in the bond market, making it difficult for U.S. Treasury yields to decline[33] - The current financial market liquidity has not fully recovered, which may exacerbate the impact of the upcoming debt maturities[33] - The ongoing discussions regarding the debt ceiling may limit adjustments to fiscal deficits and debt issuance in the near term, maintaining a similar pace of debt maturity as in 2024[25]