Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal easing direction of liquidity in the US financial market remains unchanged, domestic policies offer mild stimulus, and geopolitical disturbances enhance the importance of strategic resources, so the sentiment is still relatively favorable. The tight supply of copper mines and US tariff expectations strongly support copper prices, but as prices rise, downstream demand is squeezed out, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. Overall, the upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down [2]. - Amid overseas geopolitical factors, precious metals and copper prices are expected to remain high, which will still drive up aluminum prices. Although high aluminum prices suppress downstream开工, the relatively low overseas aluminum inventory and supply - side disturbances support aluminum prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [5]. - The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the operating rate of primary lead remains relatively high, the scrap lead inventory continues to decline, the smelting profit of recycled lead is still at a relatively high level in the past six months, and the operating rate of recycled smelting has slightly rebounded. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has declined marginally, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has stopped falling and stabilized. Currently, domestic lead prices are approaching the upper edge of the oscillation range, with a high concentration of long - position funds. In the short term, the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector is high, and lead prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8]. - The visible inventory of zinc ore has declined, the TC of zinc concentrate has declined again but at a slower pace, and the smelting profit of zinc has stopped falling and stabilized. The total domestic inventory of zinc ingots has decreased. After a large number of registered warrants appeared on the LME, the Shanghai - London ratio has continued to rise. After the winter stockpiling ends, the domestic supply of zinc ore may become more abundant. In the double - easing cycle, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is mostly bullish. Zinc prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term and run strongly in the short term following the non - ferrous sector [10]. - Although the current demand in the tin market is weak and there is an expectation of improved supply, with low downstream inventory, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk preferences. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Currently, the surplus pressure of nickel is still large, but due to Indonesia's claim to reduce RKAB quotas and the proposed tax on cobalt elements, the market's bearish sentiment has weakened. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14]. - On Tuesday, the market environment was bullish, and non - ferrous and precious metal - related varieties rose significantly. There were occasional disturbances in the supply news of lithium carbonate. Although the substantial impact was limited, the bullish sentiment was high, and the upward trend continued. It is recommended to wait and see or make light - position attempts. Pay attention to the market atmosphere, futures positions, and seat changes [18]. - After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and with the resumption of production in the AXIS mine, the ore price is expected to oscillate downward. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the cost - performance of chasing long positions is not high. If there is no actual production reduction, one can wait for an opportunity to short near - month contracts at high prices [21]. - At the end of December, driven by the news of Indonesia's RKAB plan for 2026 to set a nickel ore quota of about 250 million tons, nickel prices drove stainless steel prices to continue to strengthen. In the short term, the improvement in policy expectations promotes the rise of raw material prices and accelerates inventory reduction, providing fundamental support for the current market. If the supply quota of nickel ore is clearly tightened in the future, prices may rise further. It is recommended to consider going long at low prices and closely monitor the actual implementation of policies [24]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and with continuous supply - side disturbances, there is strong price support, while demand is relatively average. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly [27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Quotes**: Offshore RMB appreciated, the domestic equity market rose, and copper prices continued to rise. On January 6, LME copper 3M closed up 1.28% to $13,254/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 104,600 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 3,525 tons to 146,075 tons, mainly from Asia. The proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium. The daily warrants of SHFE increased by 0.3 tons to 93,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai shifted to a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the trading was poor due to the rising price. The spot in Guangdong had a premium of 15 yuan/ton to the futures, the inventory increased month - on - month, and downstream consumption weakened. The loss of SHFE copper spot imports narrowed to about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened to 6,100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The marginal easing direction of liquidity in the US financial market remains unchanged, domestic policies offer mild stimulus, and geopolitical disturbances enhance the importance of strategic resources, so the sentiment is still relatively favorable. The tight supply of copper mines and US tariff expectations strongly support copper prices, but as prices rise, downstream demand is squeezed out, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. Overall, the upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract on January 7 is 102,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $13,000 - 13,500/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: Aluminum prices continued to be strong. On January 6, LME aluminum closed up 1.41% to $3,133/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,695 yuan/ton. The position of the SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased by 34,000 to 746,000 lots, and the futures warrants increased by 0.1 tons to 84,000 tons. The domestic inventory of aluminum ingots in three regions increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline, and the market was in a wait - and - see mood. The spot of electrolytic aluminum in East China had a discount of 220 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream procurement was cautious. LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.3 tons to 504,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a discount [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Amid overseas geopolitical factors, precious metals and copper prices are expected to remain high, which will still drive up aluminum prices. Although high aluminum prices suppress downstream开工, the relatively low overseas aluminum inventory and supply - side disturbances support aluminum prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract on January 7 is 24,100 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,090 - 3,170/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.74% to 17,532 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 101,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S rose by $13 to $2,033/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 178,700 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,350 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,225 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 13,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 30 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 236,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 74,400 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - $45.52/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $106.8/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio of the disk was 1.238, and the profit and loss of lead ingot imports was 471.61 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory increased by 1,500 tons to 18,900 tons [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the operating rate of primary lead remains relatively high, the scrap lead inventory continues to decline, the smelting profit of recycled lead is still at a relatively high level in the past six months, and the operating rate of recycled smelting has slightly rebounded. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has declined marginally, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has stopped falling and stabilized. Currently, domestic lead prices are approaching the upper edge of the oscillation range, with a high concentration of long - position funds. In the short term, the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector is high, and lead prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 2.01% to 24,328 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 230,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S rose by $66 to $3,238.5/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 231,300 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,340 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 110 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was 30 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 100 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 40,800 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was 110 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 20 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 105,900 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 7,900 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - $36.3/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $58/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio of the disk was 1.081, and the profit and loss of zinc ingot imports was - 2,244.78 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 5,300 tons to 114,000 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of zinc ore has declined, the TC of zinc concentrate has declined again but at a slower pace, and the smelting profit of zinc has stopped falling and stabilized. The total domestic inventory of zinc ingots has decreased. After a large number of registered warrants appeared on the LME, the Shanghai - London ratio has continued to rise. After the winter stockpiling ends, the domestic supply of zinc ore may become more abundant. In the double - easing cycle, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is mostly bullish. Zinc prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term and run strongly in the short term following the non - ferrous sector [10]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: On January 6, 2026, the closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 348,820 yuan/ton, up 4.32% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating conditions of tin ingot smelters in Jiangxi and Yunnan were generally stable at a high level. Specifically, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained at 87.09%, basically the same as last week. However, the tin ore processing fee in Yunnan was still at a low level, and the shortage of raw materials for smelting enterprises still existed, with insufficient further upward momentum. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap, the supply of crude tin was insufficient, and the output of refined tin continued to be at a low level. In terms of demand, the downstream consumer electronics demand entered the traditional off - season at the end of the year, but supported by orders from emerging fields such as new - energy vehicles and AI servers, the operating rate of tin solder enterprises remained stable. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network data, the output of tin solder of sample enterprises in November increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and the operating rate increased slightly by 0.69% compared with October. In the spot market, downstream solder and electronic enterprises mostly adopted a low - inventory strategy, and the purchasing willingness was weak. In terms of inventory, tin inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. As of December 31, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 9,309 tons, a decrease of 1,058 tons from the previous Friday [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the current demand in the tin market is weak and there is an expectation of improved supply, with low downstream inventory, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk preferences. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $39,000 - 43,000/ton [12]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: On January 6, nickel prices rose significantly. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 139,800 yuan/ton, up 4.25% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand was relatively strong. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 600 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 8,750 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The arrival price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore was $51.37/wet ton, the same as the previous day; the arrival price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore was $23/wet ton, the same as the previous day; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore from the Philippines was $52.7/ton, the same as last week. In terms of nickel iron, prices continued to rise. The ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 935 yuan/nickel point, with an average increase of 5.5 yuan/nickel from the previous day [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the surplus pressure of nickel is still large, but due to Indonesia's claim to reduce RKAB quotas and the proposed tax on cobalt elements, the market's bearish sentiment has weakened. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for SHFE nickel prices is 110,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $13,000 - 18,000/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 133,021 yuan, up 7.45% from the previous working day. Among them, the quotation of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 132,200 - 134,800 yuan, with an average increase of 9,150 yuan (+7.36%) from the previous working day; the quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 130,000 - 131,000 yuan, with an average increase of 7.94% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 137,940 yuan, up 6.12% from the previous closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,750 yuan [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On Tuesday, the market environment was bullish, and non - ferrous and precious metal - related varieties rose significantly. There were occasional disturbances in the supply news of lithium carbonate. Although the substantial impact was limited, the bullish sentiment was high, and the upward trend continued. In the first quarter, the maintenance of lithium - battery materials extended to the electrolyte end, and the price increase of lithium iron phosphate was gradually being realized. The in - the - money

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment for copper is that the upward trend may slow down due to factors such as squeezed downstream demand and inventory accumulation, despite strong support from supply - side factors. For aluminum, it is expected to continue to be range - bound with an upward bias. Lead is likely to be weak in the short - term, zinc is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium - term and follow the non - ferrous sector strongly in the short - term. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite. Nickel's short - term bottom may have appeared. Carbonate lithium is subject to high volatility and is recommended to be observed or lightly traded. Alumina is recommended to be observed, and short positions can be considered under certain conditions. Stainless steel may be advisable to go long at low prices. Cast aluminum alloy is expected to be range - bound with an upward bias [2][5][8][10][12][14][18][21][24][27] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: After the domestic holiday, copper prices continued to be strong. LME copper 3M rose 5.03% to $13,087/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 102,650 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social and bonded - area inventories increased. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong changed from discount to premium. The import loss of SHFE copper spot widened, and the refined - scrap copper price difference increased [1] - **Strategy View**: With a loose US financial market liquidity, mild domestic policy stimulus, and geopolitical factors, the sentiment is favorable. However, high prices are squeezing downstream demand, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 101,200 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,400/ton [2] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Both domestic and international aluminum prices accelerated their upward movement. LME aluminum rose 2.28% to $3,090/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,165 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased significantly, and futures warehouse receipts increased. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased. The spot in the East China region was at a discount to futures, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [4] - **Strategy View**: The high prices of precious metals and copper are expected to drive up aluminum prices. Although high aluminum prices suppress downstream production, low overseas inventory and supply - side disturbances support the price. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to be range - bound with an upward bias. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 23,700 - 24,400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,050 - 3,140/ton [5] Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index rose 0.27% to 17,403 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,020/ton. The refined - scrap lead price difference was 150 yuan/ton. Domestic social lead inventory increased, and LME lead inventory and注销仓单 were recorded [7] - **Strategy View**: The visible lead ore inventory increased, the primary lead production rate remained high, and the recycled lead production rate slightly increased. Downstream battery enterprises' production rate decreased marginally, and domestic lead inventory stopped falling. The lead price is near the upper limit of the oscillation range, and it is expected to be weak in the short - term [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index rose 2.34% to 23,849 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $3,172.5/ton. The zinc ingot social inventory increased. The zinc ore visible inventory decreased, and the zinc concentrate TC decreased again but at a slower pace [9] - **Strategy View**: The zinc ore visible inventory decreased, and zinc smelting profit stabilized. Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and the SHFE - LME ratio increased. After the winter stockpiling, the domestic zinc ore supply may be more abundant. The zinc price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium - term and follow the non - ferrous sector strongly in the short - term [10] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 5, 2026, SHFE tin main contract closed at 334,370 yuan/ton, up 3.55%. The smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi showed different situations in production. The downstream consumer electronics demand was in the off - season, but the new - energy vehicle and AI server orders supported the tin solder enterprises' production rate. The spot market had weak purchasing willingness, and the tin inventory increased for three consecutive weeks [11] - **Strategy View**: Although the current tin market has weak demand and supply improvement expectations, the low downstream inventory limits the bargaining power. The price is expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite. It is recommended to observe. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $39,000 - 43,000/ton [12] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 5, nickel prices oscillated. SHFE nickel main contract closed at 134,100 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. The spot premiums were stable, and the nickel ore prices were stable. The nickel iron price continued to rise [13] - **Strategy View**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but due to Indonesia's policies, the short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to observe. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 110,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $13,000 - 16,500/ton [14] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The Five - Mineral Steel Union's carbonate lithium spot index rose, and the LC2605 contract price also increased. The battery - grade carbonate lithium premium was - 1,750 yuan [17] - **Strategy View**: On Monday, carbonate lithium opened and closed higher, and the total positions increased. The domestic carbonate lithium inventory decreased, and the market has optimistic expectations for the supply - demand pattern in 2026. However, the price transmission to the end - users is incomplete. It is recommended to observe or lightly trade. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2605 contract is 125,500 - 134,500 yuan/ton [18] Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 5, 2026, the alumina index fell 0.22% to 2,749 yuan/ton. The positions increased, and the basis showed that the Shandong spot was at a discount to the main contract. The overseas price fell, and the import loss was reported. The futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the ore prices were stable [20] - **Strategy View**: After the rainy season, the ore supply from Guinea is expected to increase, and the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. Although there are expectations of supply - side policies, the price rebound faces difficulties. It is recommended to observe, and short positions can be considered if there is no actual production cut. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,075 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The positions increased. The spot prices in different markets showed different trends, and the raw material prices such as nickel and chromium were stable or increased. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased [23] - **Strategy View**: In late December, the stainless steel price was driven up by the nickel price. The supply from steel mills was limited, and the inventory decreased. The nickel iron price was firm, but the terminal demand was weak. If the nickel ore supply quota is tightened, the price may rise further. It is advisable to go long at low prices and closely monitor policy implementation [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price accelerated its upward movement. The AD2603 contract closed up 3.04% to 22,520 yuan/ton. The positions and trading volume increased, and the warehouse receipts slightly increased. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price increased, and the inventory decreased slightly [26] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong, and there are supply - side disturbances. The price is expected to be range - bound with an upward bias [27]

Group 1 - The domestic copper futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 101,200.00 yuan/ton and a daily increase of 2.11% [1] - Market sentiment remains favorable due to marginal liquidity easing in the U.S. financial markets and mild domestic policy stimulus, alongside geopolitical tensions that emphasize the importance of strategic resources [2] - Supply tightness at the mining end and continued expectations of U.S. tariffs provide strong support for copper prices, although rising prices may squeeze downstream demand, leading to inventory accumulation pressure [2] Group 2 - The copper market is expected to transition from a projected shortage to a reality by 2026, driven by U.S. copper stockpiling and reduced production of electrolytic copper [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on the impact of the Venezuelan situation and short-term trading sentiment in precious metals [3] - There is a significant amount of in-the-money call options in the LME market due to the rapid price increase at the end of the year, with attention on potential adjustments in overseas institutions' price expectations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term sentiment of precious metals has ebbed, but the copper price still has strong support due to tight supply in the copper industry and potential downstream consumption recovery. The aluminum price has a strong support as well, with low inventory and possible consumption increase after price decline. Lead shows a supply - demand weak pattern, and low inventory and supply contraction in the recycling end drive the price up. Zinc's fundamentals are weak, and the inventory is decreasing. Tin's supply has limited upward momentum, and demand is supported by emerging fields. Nickel's short - term price bottom may have emerged. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by capital games, and there is an expectation of supply - demand repair. Alumina's supply - side reform needs actual production cuts. Stainless steel may rise if the nickel ore supply quota tightens. Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strongly volatile [2][5][8][11][13][15][19][22][25][28]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The London copper rose 0.45% to $12,187 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 96,060 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,450 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 21,000 tons [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper mines is tight, and the copper price has strong support. If the price continues to adjust, downstream consumption may improve. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 95,500 - 99,000 yuan per ton, and for the London copper 3M is $12,000 - 12,500 per ton [2]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The London aluminum fell 0.2% to $2,950 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22,320 yuan per ton. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the low inventory and possible consumption recovery support the price. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,600 yuan per ton, and for the London aluminum 3M is $2,920 - 2,980 per ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index fell 0.40% to 17,477 yuan per ton, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The primary lead supply is loose, the secondary lead supply is contracting, and the lead market is in a supply - demand weak pattern. Low inventory and supply contraction in the recycling end drive the price up, but the exit of long - positions may impact the price [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.34% to 23,271 yuan per ton, and the zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc ore inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals are weak. The exit of long - positions may impact the price [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On December 29, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract fell 1.17% to 334,590 yuan per ton. The supply has limited upward momentum, and demand is supported by emerging fields [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan per ton, and for the overseas London tin is $39,000 - 43,000 per ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 0.81% to 126,080 yuan per ton. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel - iron price rose [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price bottom of nickel may have emerged. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 110,000 - 135,000 yuan per ton, and for the London nickel 3M is $13,000 - 16,000 per ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 2.03%, and the LC2605 contract fell 8.96% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of lithium carbonate is affected by capital games, and there is an expectation of supply - demand repair. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 112,100 - 122,500 yuan per ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 29, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.04% to 2,720 yuan per ton. The inventory of futures decreased [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan per ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract fell 0.35% to 12,910 yuan per ton. The social inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Policy expectations drive up raw material prices and inventory reduction. It is recommended to buy at low prices and pay attention to policy implementation [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2602 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.94% to 21,590 yuan per ton, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly volatile due to cost support and supply disturbances [28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the market for platinum and palladium is experiencing a bullish trend, driven by recent developments in monetary policy and regulatory changes in the automotive sector [2][3][8] - Following the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, liquidity risks in the market have eased, allowing for a more optimistic outlook on precious metals, particularly platinum and palladium [2][7] - The European Commission's recent plan to allow the continued sale of certain non-electric vehicles post-2035 is expected to boost demand for platinum and palladium, as these metals are primarily used in automotive catalytic converters [3][8] Group 2 - The new EU automotive emissions target aims for a 90% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2035 compared to 2021 levels, which alters the previous goal of zero emissions for new vehicles [3][8] - The strong performance of platinum and palladium is closely linked to the ongoing strength of gold prices, providing a supportive environment for further price increases in these metals [3][8] - Market participants are advised to exercise caution in the face of rapid price increases, as there is a risk of overheating in the market [3][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of precious metals futures, with platinum and palladium rising over 5% and silver increasing over 4% [1] - Despite market skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts, discussions around the potential candidates for the Fed chair and the number of rate cuts in 2016 are influencing market sentiment [1] - The current gold price is close to its historical high, with attention on whether it can effectively break through this level to open up upward potential for 2026 [1] Group 2 - Silver, platinum, and palladium continue to follow gold's trend, with stronger performance observed in these metals [1] - The sustained strength in gold prices provides market confidence for bullish positions in silver, platinum, and palladium, leading to a rapid return of the gold-silver ratio, which extends to the gold-platinum and gold-palladium ratios [1] - While prices are rising quickly, caution is advised to prevent overheating in the market, suggesting that chasing high prices should be approached with care [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that JPMorgan is reallocating $350 billion (over 2.4 trillion RMB) from its Federal Reserve account to U.S. Treasury bonds to lock in yields before potential interest rate cuts [1] - The article notes that the recent liquidity tightening in the financial system is showing signs of strengthening, despite the Federal Reserve's indication of quantitative easing (QE) [1] - The shadow banking system, valued at $63 trillion, is identified as a potential source of instability in the global financial market, with the private credit market, currently around $1.8 trillion, also seen as a risk factor [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that JPMorgan's large-scale operation could significantly impact the liquidity of the entire financial system [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices and the economic indicators from the New York Federal Reserve, highlighting a mixed outlook for the manufacturing sector and potential implications for future monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve [3][7]. Economic Indicators - On December 15, COMEX gold prices initially rose before falling, closing at $4334.3 per ounce, with a gain of 0.14%. In contrast, the domestic SHFE gold night market price decreased, closing at 975.52 yuan per gram, down 0.18% [3][7]. - The New York Federal Reserve reported a significant drop in the general business conditions index, falling approximately 23 points to -3.9, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector. However, the outlook for the next six months improved, with the outlook index rising 16.6 points to its highest level since the beginning of the year, reflecting increased optimism regarding orders and shipments [3][7]. Federal Reserve Insights - The President of the Boston Federal Reserve expressed support for the recent interest rate cut, acknowledging the difficulty of the decision due to ongoing concerns about high inflation [3][7]. - Market discussions are focused on the future chairperson of the Federal Reserve and the pace of interest rate cuts in 2016. The market remains optimistic, considering the liquidity in financial markets and the weak employment outlook, which supports a stronger gold price trend [3][7]. Upcoming Data - Non-farm payroll data is set to be released on Tuesday evening, which may guide future Federal Reserve monetary policy. If the data significantly underperforms expectations, it could lead to further pricing in of liquidity easing. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data may pose a risk of short-term corrections in precious metals [3][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that insurance funds continue to flow into the stock market, while uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has increased [2][4][55] - As of the end of Q3, the total balance of insurance funds reached 37.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-to-date growth of 12.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4% [4][8] - The proportion of equity assets held by insurance funds has risen to a historical high of 14.85%, with total equity assets amounting to 5.56 trillion yuan [4][10] Group 2 - In terms of liquidity, the report notes that the net inflow of funds in the secondary market has narrowed, with a decrease in financing balance and net selling of financing funds amounting to 8.2 billion yuan [4][25] - The report highlights that the net inflow of ETFs was 123.1 billion yuan, while the issuance of new equity public funds decreased [4][25] - The report identifies a preference for sectors such as power equipment, basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, which saw significant net inflows from various funds [44][45] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which have led to a downward adjustment of interest rate cut expectations for the year [55][56] - It emphasizes that the market's risk appetite is influenced by the lack of key economic data due to the government shutdown, creating a need for clearer signals to reduce uncertainty [2][55] - The report also notes that the VIX index has risen, indicating a decline in market risk appetite [35]

Core Insights - The U.S. financial market is expected to experience turbulence in September due to tight liquidity conditions [1] - Despite widespread expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, a key indicator of idle funds has remained at very low levels since mid-August, raising doubts about the need for the Fed to inject liquidity [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - As of August 14, the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement tool fell below $50 billion, reaching a recent low [1] - During peak periods in 2022 and 2023, the average daily usage of this tool was as high as $2 trillion [1] Group 2: Future Projections - A report from Bank of America’s global interest rate strategy team predicts that by the end of August, the usage of the reverse repurchase tool by the Federal Reserve will drop to zero, with a slight recovery expected in September [1]