美债发行潮

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美国财政部发布关键预测,“美债发行潮”风险大幅下降
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-09 01:41
Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury plans to rebuild its cash reserves in the Treasury General Account (TGA) from approximately $313 billion on July 3 to $500 billion by the end of July, aiming for about $850 billion by September [1] - The Treasury will increase the weekly benchmark Treasury auction size rather than issuing cash management bills to fund this rebuilding, which alleviates concerns about a significant supply shock in the market [1][2] - The gradual cash rebuilding strategy has significantly altered market expectations, with a notable reduction in the anticipated issuance of Treasury bonds for July [2] Group 2 - The adjusted issuance plan is expected to lower the potential impact of a "Treasury issuance wave" on the market, with total issuance for July projected to be $1,570 billion, much lower than previous estimates [2] - Investor concerns regarding potential new debt supply pushing up yields have been eased by the Treasury's latest plans, with Barclays strategists predicting a stable yield spread for 3-month Treasury bills [2] - There is a focus on the impact of rising TGA balances on financial system liquidity, with potential risks if the TGA balance increases too quickly [3]