周末关注的消息主要就是5个：第一是美股那边没有持续暴跌，几大指数普遍反弹大涨；第二个就是英伟达出售H200芯片消息传来；第三就是比特币在这 个周末是大型过山车走势；第四个就是24日摩尔线程科创板IPO将启动申购；第五个就是冬天来临，流感相关最近频繁被提及。 从调整原因来看，内部原因之前说过，这一波主要是外部施压，是美联储表态导致的流动性问题！流动性问题导致的全球资本市场大波动，进而波及到A 股。次要的原因还是对于全球科技股估值的争议，带来的波动加大和风险偏好下降。 从调整点位来看，沪指这个三角形跌破之后，向下极限是看到3800-3810一带会有短期支撑。创业板这个三角形跌破之后，向下极限是看到2500-2530一带 支撑了。 从买入信号的角度，现在强调是短期买入。并且要关注的两个信号是市场出现恐慌盘和港股那边企稳才行。 从操作策略上来看，依然是保持谨慎和等待！维持之前的边打边撤不变！到了现在是耐心等待企稳信号之后再度可以入场！现在甚至可以不入场，一直在 观望。后续有的一波反弹和反抽甚至可以不用参与，耐心等待春季躁动和挖坑成型之后！ 所以，现在能做的也是短期等急跌恐慌做一把，并且是保持低仓位！不想做的话，就是看 ...

2023年3月那会儿，美国银行圈子突然炸锅了。先是硅谷银行3月10日被加州监管直接关门，这是2008年后美国第二大银行倒闭案，资产两千多亿美元。 客户主要是科技创业公司和风投，存款大多没保险。之前美联储连着加息，债券价格跌惨了，硅谷银行手里一大堆长期国债和抵押证券，未实现损失好几十 亿。3月8日他们宣布卖证券补窟窿，还想增发股票，结果客户慌了，两天提走四百多亿，银行现金一下子见底。 市场怕传染，第一共和银行股价三天跌七成，资产两千一百亿，未保险存款占比高，债券损失也重。3月16日，十一家大银行凑了三百亿存款塞进去，想稳 住，但效果一般。 欧洲那边，瑞士信贷老毛病犯了。从2021年起丑闻不断，Archegos爆仓、Greensill崩盘，2022年客户提走一千二百亿瑞郎。 2023年3月15日，大股东沙特国家银行说不加钱了，股价一天跌两成多。瑞士央行先给五百亿瑞郎流动性，3月19日直接让瑞银三十亿瑞郎买下，整个过程政 府推的，没让股东投票。 紧接着3月12日，签名银行也倒了，资产一千多亿，搞加密货币业务的多，存款一样跑得飞快。同一天，监管宣布这两家所有存款都保，包括超25万刀那部 分，钱从存款保险基金出，后来再 ...

【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 | Millio ■控期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月21日 | | 黄金 ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属震荡回落。推迟公布的9月非农就业人数增加11.9万超预期和前值，但失业率小幅上升0.1个百分 点至4.4%,周度初请失业金人数22.3万人低于预期维持低位,就业保持韧性。美联储官员们表态存在较大分 歧,12月维持利率不变可能性较高。美股大幅回调,警惕流动性风险。贵金属高位震荡,关注技术面的方向 性突破。 ★美联储 -- ①巴尔:对通胀仍处于3%水平表示担忧。需要支持劳动力市场,但需 ...

有色金属周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251121 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内主要金属现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.11.7 | 2025.11.14 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | 现货指标 | 2025.11.7 | 2025.11.14 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2601 | 86900 | 85660 | -1240 | -1.43% | 平均价:1#铜:上海现货 | 87070 | 85870 | -1200 | -1.38% | | 铝 | AL2601 | 21840 | 21340 | -500 | -2.29% | 平均价:A00铝:上海现货 | 21900 | 21370 | -530 | -2.42% | | 锌 | ZN2601 | 22465 | 22390 | -75 | -0.33% | 平均价:0#锌:上海现货 | 2248 ...

沪铜早间打开，随后窄幅震荡，收盘下跌0.83%。股市期市氛围不佳，沪铜走势受到拖累，但社会库存 下滑，下方存在支撑。 对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，非农数据或令降息预期回落。目前看铜价驱动尚未超以往，预计短期价 格重心保持高位震荡，暂无大幅下降压力。基本面则需关注印尼矿山影响能否兑现至非美精铜去库。 （文华综合） 隔夜公布的美国9月非农数据喜忧参半，市场仍在等待更多数据指引，美联储官员讲话最近整体偏鹰， 市场对于12月继续降息的押注明显下滑，美指偏强运行，叠加最近美股A股承压，市场警惕流动性风 险，风险偏好偏弱，沪铜震荡走软。 当前全球铜矿端紧张局面难解，10月不论是机构统计数据还是国家统计局数据都显示国内精铜产量略有 回落，不过回落幅度有限。铜价高位运行一度压制下游需求，最近伴随着价格重心的下移，需求略有好 转。 ...

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price fell overnight, with the Brent 01 contract down 0.8%. The geopolitical risk premium of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was suppressed, and the oil price rebound due to geopolitical factors was limited. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil. The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and strong diesel cracking, while the high-sulfur market is expected to face supply increases in the medium term [21] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market sentiment is bearish [22] - The expected import cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is rising in December. The demand from both the chemical and combustion sectors is improving, and the LPG market is expected to be strong [23] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals are oscillating at a high level. The employment data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements are divided. The possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough on the technical side [2] - Copper prices fell overnight due to a stronger dollar and weak demand. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 87,000 yuan [3] - Aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are uncertain, and the aluminum market may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the support of the middle Bollinger Band [4] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The inventory structure is gradually being repaired, and there is still profit potential for cross-market arbitrage [7] - Lead prices are supported by low inventory levels, but the external market is under pressure due to high inventory. The import window for aluminum ingots may open, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [8] - Nickel prices are weakening. The macro risk is increasing, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is increasing [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. The environmental rectification in Malaysia has limited impact on the market. The import of tin concentrate in China has improved slightly, but the resumption of supply from Myanmar is not strong. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] - Lithium carbonate prices are strengthening. The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The technical analysis shows a range breakthrough, and a buy-on-dip strategy can be adopted [11] - Polycrystalline silicon prices are falling. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the actual supply-demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Industrial silicon prices are undergoing a technical correction. The downstream demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is expected to improve, which may boost the price [13] Group 3: Building Materials - Steel prices rebounded at night. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is improving, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. Attention should be paid to the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [14] - Iron ore prices are oscillating. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [15] - Coke and coking coal prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable, but the steel mills' profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is high [16][17] - Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices are falling. The market expects coal supply to increase, which may lower the cost. The demand is stable, but the supply is high, and the bottom support may weaken [18][19] Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices are oscillating narrowly. The Indian tender results will affect the market sentiment. The agricultural demand is weakening, but the industrial demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [24] - Methanol prices are in a weak position. The overseas supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [25] - Pure benzene prices are rebounding, but the sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure is easing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the export to the US faces challenges [26] - Styrene prices are supported by cost and supply reduction. The demand from the European market is strong [27] - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices are expected to be weak. The supply is high, and the demand is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is increasing [28] - PVC and caustic soda prices are falling. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the cost changes and profit margins [29] - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. The supply from overseas may be affected, and the demand is weakening. The market is cautiously bullish [30] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be bearish. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short strategy can be adopted [31] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices are under pressure. The demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to follow the raw material prices [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are oscillating. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs to be monitored. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered after the correction [36] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the US biodiesel policy. The palm oil price may have bottomed out [37] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure. The import volume has decreased, and the demand is weak. A bearish strategy is recommended [38] - Corn prices are oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to decline [40] - Hog prices are at a low level. The futures market is trading on the potential supply pressure in the future. The pig price may form a double bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg prices are rebounding strongly. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous price decline has ended [42] - Cotton prices are range-bound. The US cotton export sales are increasing, but the domestic demand is average. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range-bound in the short term [43] - Sugar prices are oscillating. The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is focusing on the new season's production estimate. The production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level. The short-term price is strong due to low inventory, but the long-term inventory pressure may exist. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction [44] Group 6: Others - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in early December and may improve in late December. The 02 contract may be slightly discounted compared to the 12 contract, and the far-month contracts are expected to be low and oscillating [20] - Wood prices are oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and a wait-and-see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp prices are falling. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [46] - Stock index futures are falling. The A-share market is volatile, and the external market is uncertain. A wait-and-see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to stable, consumer, and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury bond futures are falling. The market is trading lightly, and the structure is differentiated. The change in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48]

Core Insights - The public fund liquidation trend has continued this year, with nearly 200 funds being liquidated as of November 18, indicating a significant shift in the market dynamics [1][3] - A notable portion of the liquidated funds were periodic open-end and holding period funds, which accounted for over 40% of the total liquidations, highlighting a change in investor behavior and market conditions [1][3] Fund Types and Performance - Among the liquidated funds, over 70 active equity funds were closed, representing nearly 40% of the total, particularly those launched at market peaks in 2022, such as in sectors like new energy and advanced manufacturing [1][3] - All liquidated FOF products were either periodic open-end or holding period funds, indicating that products with liquidity constraints are under greater pressure during market downturns [3] Market Trends and Investor Behavior - There is a concerning trend of capital outflows from holding period funds, with nearly 800 billion units reduced in the third quarter alone, particularly in equity and pure bond holding period funds [3] - Despite some "fixed income+" and FOF products experiencing growth, the overall trend remains negative, suggesting a lack of investor confidence in these products [3] Design and Investor Experience - The original intent of holding period funds was to reduce investor trading friction and enhance long-term returns, but many funds were launched at market highs, leading to poor investor experiences [3][4] - The holding period mechanism does not prevent investors from chasing rising markets, which can increase uncertainty during times of financial need [4] Recommendations for Investors and Fund Managers - Investors are advised to carefully consider liquidity risks associated with holding period funds and evaluate the fund manager's capabilities and historical performance before investing [4] - Fund management companies are encouraged to avoid aggressive expansion and focus on creating long-term value for investors, rather than succumbing to market trends [4]

数据显示，截至11月18日，今年以来已有近200只公募基金清盘，相比去年同期数量有所下降。 今年以来，公募基金产品（不包含资产管理计划）清盘数量已接近200只。值得注意的是，定期开放及 持有期类基金成为清盘主力，占清盘基金总数高达四成以上，涉及FOF、"固收+"基金、纯债基金以及 主动权益基金等多种类型。并且，三季度持有期基金份额总数也出现了缩水的迹象，主动权益类、纯债 类持有期基金份额缩水更加明显。 持有期基金的设计初衷主要是希望通过限制赎回，减少投资者追涨杀跌带来的摩擦成本。业内机构认 为，由于市面上大部分的偏股型持有期基金密集发行于此前的市场相对高点阶段，持有期基金的投资者 不仅牺牲了流动性，也没有换来"相对好"的收益，投资体验也不可能很好。因此，投资持有期基金不仅 需要明确流动性风险，还要综合评估基金管理人能力以及市场环境等多种因素。 ● 本报记者 王鹤静 持有期基金密集清盘 今年三季度，持有期基金份额已经开始缩水。数据显示，设有最短持有期的公募产品三季度基金份额总 数减少近800亿份。 其中，偏股混合型持有期基金份额减少超600亿份，易方达品质动能三年持有减少超50亿份，富国兴远 优选12个月持有、 ...

Core Insights - The number of public fund products (excluding asset management plans) that have been liquidated this year is approaching 200, with periodic open and holding period funds being the main contributors, accounting for over 40% of the total liquidated funds [1][2] - The design of holding period funds aimed to reduce friction costs from investors' frequent trading, but many of these funds were launched at market peaks, leading to poor investment experiences for investors [1][5] - The survival space for actively managed equity funds is being increasingly squeezed due to the rapid growth of index investing, with over 70 actively managed equity funds liquidated this year, making up nearly 40% of the total liquidated funds [1][2] Fund Liquidation Trends - As of November 18, nearly 200 public funds have been liquidated this year, a decrease compared to the same period last year [1] - Among the liquidated funds, over 70 are actively managed equity funds, including various types such as mixed equity, flexible allocation, and balanced funds [2] - The majority of liquidated funds are periodic open and holding period funds, with over 30 FOF products also included in this category [2] Shrinking Fund Sizes - In the third quarter, the total number of holding period fund shares decreased by nearly 800 billion, with mixed equity holding period funds seeing a reduction of over 600 billion shares [3][4] - Specific funds like E Fund Quality Momentum and others experienced significant share reductions, with some losing over 50 billion shares [4] - Despite the overall decline, certain categories like "fixed income+" and FOF funds saw growth in their share sizes [4] Considerations for Investors - Holding period funds require careful consideration of liquidity risks, as they restrict redemption while allowing for purchases, which may not suit investors seeking flexibility [6] - The initial intent of holding period funds was to help investors avoid frequent trading, but market conditions and fund management capabilities significantly impact actual investment returns [5][6] - Investors are advised to evaluate the fundamental aspects of holding period funds, including the experience of the research team, investment processes, historical performance, and fee structures before investing [6]

本我青中的信息均源于公元可获得的资料、国资税分为救困问事。但不对上达信息的准确性及完整性的任何保证、本者告不构成个人投资建议、也未分对个别投资者持放的投资目标、好多优规或票、投资 者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。据北投资，责任章负。本报告仅向榜定客户推选，未到国资期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及南第三京传播的行为收购成"国贸联货的景观 声 明 我司将视情况追究法律责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 II C E K E S 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 1）行情回顾：11月14日，沪金期货主力合约收跌0.29%至953.2元/克，沪镜期货主力合约收跌0.04%至1250元/于克。但周五夜盘、贵金属价格大幅下挫。伦敦金 一度跌破4050美元/盎司关口，沪金夜盘收跌2.53%至924.86元/克: 伦敦银跌幅一度超4%至60美元/盎司关口附近、沪银夜盘跌3.59%至11994元/千克。 同情况: 2）解析及短期展望：在美国关键经济数据持续缺失背景下，多位美联储官员发表偏鹰派言论，市场预测美联储12月降息概率低于50%，美债收益率回升，引发投资 ʊℓ腊微 者恐慌 ...