1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The struggle for control of the Strait of Hormuz may be a key factor in determining the outcome of the war, and the threat to its passage could impact the global energy supply, financial markets, trade systems, and geopolitical landscape [4]. - The negotiation conditions of the US and Iran are at odds, and the US military is likely to conduct an amphibious landing operation in the Strait of Hormuz, which may lead to a long - term interruption of crude oil transportation [60]. - The global economy has passed its peak in Q4 2025 and is on a downward trend. The continuation of the conflict may cause oil prices to soar, and the US economy is at a high risk of stagflation [27]. - As the strait blockade may last longer than expected, the shortage of crude oil will lead to a substantial reduction in refinery loads, and chemical products are expected to start an independent market [60]. 3. Summary by Related Content Geopolitical Situation - The control of the Strait of Hormuz is crucial. If Iran retains control or the ability to threaten blockade, the US will be considered to have lost the war; if the US ensures freedom of navigation, it will strengthen its global leadership [4]. - The US has proposed a 15 - point armistice plan to Iran, including requirements for Iran to limit its nuclear program, stop supporting regional allies, and ensure the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In return, Iran may get sanctions lifted and support for civilian nuclear projects [5]. - Iran has put forward 5 conditions for an armistice, including an end to hostilities, establishment of a war - prevention mechanism, compensation for war losses, full end of the conflict, and recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz [8]. - Iran insists on its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and separates the right of passage from the armistice negotiation. It is also preparing to levy tolls on passing ships [9]. Financial Market - The US president's attempt to suppress Brent crude oil prices through social media is losing effectiveness, and oil prices may get out of control [13]. - The US 2 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond yields are rising, indicating a serious shortage of liquidity and heavy selling pressure on bonds [16][20]. - Gold prices have fallen unexpectedly as institutions sell gold to obtain liquidity, spreading the liquidity risk [22]. - The US stock market is a major risk source. The distribution of stocks by institutions is coming to an end, and the deterioration of the Middle East situation will accelerate this process [24]. Economic Situation in the US - The US government's quarterly interest payments have reached a new high, and the 2 - month core CPI and PPI are rising, indicating accelerating inflation [28][31][33]. - The manufacturing and service PMI price indices are expanding, and the US is sliding towards stagflation [36]. - The number of initial jobless claims is 213,000, and the unemployment rate in February is 4.4%. The non - agricultural employment decreased by 92,000 in February, showing a rapid decline in employment [39][42]. - Retail and food sales in January decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, indicating a weakening of US consumption [44]. - The import value of capital goods in January reached a record high of $110.7 billion, indicating an acceleration of the US re - industrialization process [47]. - The ISM manufacturing PMI index unexpectedly expanded, and the service PMI in February expanded more than expected [50]. Global Economic Situation - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI slightly expanded in February, probably driven by the military industry [53]. - India's manufacturing and service PMI remain at a certain level of prosperity [55]. - Japan's 10 - year Treasury bond yield is rising, indicating increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [57]. Commodity Market - As the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may last longer, the supply of crude oil will be severely affected. Although a large amount of strategic oil reserves are released, the daily supply is far from meeting the demand [60]. - The price fluctuations of chemical products go through three stages. In late March, refineries will enter a substantial load - reduction phase, and chemical products are expected to start an independent market [61][62][65]. - The reduction of refinery loads will lead to a decrease in the production of ethylene, propylene, etc., which is beneficial to the prices of related downstream products such as styrene, linear low - density polyethylene, and polypropylene [72][84][87]. - The expected decline in China's port inventory of methanol and the interruption of ethylene - glycol imports due to refinery load - reduction are also expected to affect the prices of these products [75][78]. - The substantial damage to Qatar's natural gas production capacity has created room for the rise of liquefied petroleum gas [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions have shown signs of easing, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices. However, the possibility of a peace agreement remains uncertain. Therefore, it is expected that the prices of gold and silver will mainly fluctuate in the near future [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - US President Trump stated that the US and Iran had "strong" talks and formed the main points of an agreement, suspending attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days. Trump also said that the US was in consultations with Iran to reach a broader agreement, and an agreement "could be reached within 5 days or even less." However, Iran has repeatedly denied having talks with the US. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Trump's statement aimed to lower energy prices and gain time for military operations. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that inflation is currently the main risk facing the US economy, and he does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates. But if the Iran conflict is quickly resolved, there may still be a rate cut later this year [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On March 23, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,041.78 yuan/gram and closed at 940.00 yuan/gram, a change of -9.55% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, the contract opened at 992.80 yuan/gram and closed at 980.00 yuan/gram, a 4.26% increase from the afternoon close. - On March 23, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 17,693.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 15,411.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -12.56% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 1,259,324 lots, and the open interest was 222,721 lots. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,000 yuan/kilogram and closed at 17,246 yuan/kilogram, an 11.91% increase from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 23, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.34%, a decrease of 0.59 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.49%, a change of -0.38 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract on March 23, 2026, the long positions decreased by 4,018 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 1,300 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 854,620 lots, a change of 55.84% from the previous trading day. - On the Ag2606 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,163 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2,122 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2,026,252 lots, a change of 45.74% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - In the precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 1,056.99 tons yesterday, a decrease of 5.14 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,514 tons, an increase of 265 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On March 23, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 35.48 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was 557.29 yuan/kilogram. - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange yesterday was approximately 61.00, a change of -0.15% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 64.26, a change of -4.35% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On the previous trading day (March 23, 2026), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 104,370 kilograms, a change of 11.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 478,842 kilograms, a change of 15.89% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the price of gold will mainly fluctuate in the near future, and the fluctuation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 950 yuan/gram and 1,000 yuan/gram. - Silver: Similar to gold in terms of macroeconomics, the price of silver is also expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern, and the fluctuation range of the Ag2606 contract may be between 16,000 yuan/kilogram and 18,000 yuan/kilogram [8].

Group 1 - The report indicates that liquidity risk is controllable despite rising global risk assessments, with expectations that the US dollar will not strengthen long-term due to accumulating macroeconomic pressures in the US [4][20][15] - The Middle East situation is likely to continue or escalate, but the effectiveness of policies such as escorting in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be limited, with the market already pricing in these expectations [4][20][11] - Chinese assets are characterized by a "safety premium" due to stable energy supplies, export advantages, and liquidity increments, leading to a steady decline in risk assessments for these assets [4][20][16] Group 2 - In the past week (March 16-22, 2026), commodities, except for crude oil, weakened across the board, global equities faced pressure, and bond market trends were mixed, with domestic bonds rebounding except for long-term bonds [7][9] - There are currently no trend signals for various asset classes, indicating a lack of clear direction in the market [23][21] - The medium-term uncertainty for commodities and gold is rising, while uncertainty for domestic bonds is decreasing, and uncertainty for A-shares, US stocks, and US bonds remains stable [25][21][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, styrene, PE, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Macro finance, treasury bonds, copper, aluminum oxide, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, precious metals, platinum and palladium, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, black metals, soda ash, coke, coking coal, corn, soybean meal, pulp, log, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, urea, LPG, container shipping on the European route [1] 2. Core Views - The Middle East conflict continues to impact the market, causing uncertainty in the global capital market and affecting the prices of various commodities [1] - The stock index is expected to continue its oscillating pattern, and is likely to consolidate and resume its upward trend as external inflationary pressures ease and market risk appetite recovers [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand relationships, and policy changes, and most of them are in an oscillating state [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - The stock index is expected to continue oscillating, and long positions can be considered in the medium to long term using the discount advantage of stock index futures, while controlling positions [1] - Treasury bonds are oscillating under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of monetary policy easing, supply pressure from fiscal stimulus, and profit-taking behavior of trading desks [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper prices are under pressure due to the escalation of the Middle East situation and the increase in market risk aversion [1] - Aluminum in the non-ferrous sector is a multi-allocation variety due to supply disruptions in the Middle East and rising energy costs [1] - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as the implementation plan is unclear and supply remains in excess [1] - Zinc prices are oscillating due to concerns about short-term zinc ore supply and inflation risks [1] - Nickel prices may oscillate due to supply tightness in Indonesia and macro sentiment fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for low-buying opportunities [1] - Stainless steel futures are oscillating widely, and it is recommended to wait and watch for low-buying opportunities [1] - Tin prices are affected by the macro environment and are highly volatile in the short term [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver prices are expected to continue oscillating in the short term as the Middle East geopolitical situation has not been resolved and oil prices may still affect the precious metals market [1] - Platinum and palladium prices are likely to remain oscillating, and the driving force depends on the clarification of the Middle East geopolitical situation [1] Black Metals - Rebar prices are oscillating due to low inventory and weak demand expectations [1] - Hot-rolled coil prices are oscillating, and it is recommended to wait for the next entry opportunity after taking profits on long basis positions [1] - Iron ore prices are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, policy support, and cost, and are oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon prices are oscillating, with short-term supply and demand remaining weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy support, and cost providing positive factors [1] - Black metals are in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term, with expectations of supply reduction increasing, and cost support due to rising energy prices [1] - Soda ash prices are under pressure in the short term due to geopolitical conflicts and are expected to be more relaxed in the medium term [1] - Coke prices are oscillating, and the coking profit has been repaired, but the market is highly uncertain and depends on geopolitical changes [1] - Coking coal prices have the same logic as coke [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil is bullish due to the tight supply and demand situation in the international market [1] - Soybean oil is expected to rise following the market, and can be considered for short allocation in the oil varieties for hedging [1] - Rapeseed oil is bullish in the short term due to potential positive factors from the US biodiesel policy [1] - Cotton prices are expected to gradually rise in the medium to long term as demand recovers and planting area is reduced [1] - Sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations, with an internal strong and external weak pattern continuing [1] - Corn futures prices are expected to continue oscillating at a high level, with limited downward space in the short term but facing constraints from alternative supply and policy [1] - Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate more and are in an oscillating state, and it is recommended to pay attention to international situation changes and the USDA planting intention report [1] - Pulp futures are oscillating in the range of 5200 - 5400 yuan/ton, and the fundamental weakness is difficult to change in the short term [1] - Log futures have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and watch [1] - Live pig prices are oscillating as demand support and production capacity need further release [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to remain high due to geopolitical factors [1] - Fuel oil prices are affected by the Middle East situation and are oscillating [1] - Asphalt prices are relatively weakly affected in the energy sector, mainly due to the impact of crude oil price transmission [1] - Natural rubber prices are affected by the US-Iran situation, and the prices of BD and BR are rising [1] - BR rubber prices are expected to rise due to factors such as cost support and inventory reduction expectations [1] - PTA prices are affected by geopolitical factors, with tight supply of PX and rapid downstream replenishment [1] - Ethylene glycol prices have risen rapidly due to raw material shortages [1] - Short fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1] - Benzene prices are rising due to multiple supply disturbances and strong market buying [1] - Styrene prices are rising strongly due to supply disturbances and tight spot supply [1] - Urea prices have limited upward space due to weak domestic demand but are supported by cost [1] - Methanol prices are affected by the Iranian situation, with high domestic production and inventory [1] - PE prices are affected by geopolitical factors and have a weak fundamental situation [1] - PVC prices are expected to be optimistic in the future due to capacity clearance and raw material shortages [1] - LPG prices are showing a divergence between the internal and external markets, with the FEI - PG showing a背离 [1] Other - Container shipping on the European route is affected by the war situation and the re - takeover of the Red Sea by the Houthi armed forces, and the price increase is generally stable [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The situation of global crude oil shortage will become more severe due to the long - term blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and the limited daily release volume of reserve crude oil [4][7][11] - The US economy is sliding towards stagflation, with inflation rising, employment and consumption weakening, while the re - industrialization is accelerating [23][27][37][39][42] - The risk of private credit is spreading to the banking system, and the US stock market, especially the Nasdaq, is at high risk [17][20] - Due to the blockage of crude oil transportation, refineries are reducing their loads, and there may be a large - scale shortage of refined chemicals [52] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is becoming long - term. Although the IEA is releasing a large amount of strategic oil reserves, the actual daily release is far from meeting the supply gap caused by the blockage [23] - The US private credit crisis is spreading to the traditional banking system, and the firewall of traditional banks is facing a severe test [23] - The Nasdaq futures have broken through the support level. The disruptive substitution of AI and the Middle East situation may trigger a new round of large - scale selling of US stocks, which may have a significant negative impact on US consumption [23] - The US is returning to the Monroe Doctrine and shrinking globally, which will have a profound and subversive impact on major global assets [23] - The global economy has passed its peak and is continuously declining due to the US's wrong policies [23] US Economic Indicators - **Inflation**: The US core CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month in February, and the PPI final demand increased by 0.5% month - on - month in January, indicating an upward trend in inflation. The manufacturing and service PMI price indices are expanding, and the US is sliding towards stagflation [27][29][31] - **Employment**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US is 213,000, and the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Non - farm employment decreased by 92,000 in February, and the number of active corporate layoffs is rising [34][37] - **Consumption**: Retail and food sales in the US decreased by 0.1% month - on - month in January, indicating a weakening of overall consumption [39] - **Industry**: The import of capital goods in the US reached a record high in December, and the US re - industrialization is accelerating. The ISM manufacturing PMI and service PMI in the US expanded unexpectedly in February [42][45] International Economic Indicators - In February, the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone slightly expanded, probably driven by the expansion of the military industry [48] - The manufacturing and service PMIs in India remain at a certain level of prosperity [50] Large - scale Asset Allocation - The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz makes the interruption of crude oil transportation long - term. Although the total amount of reserve crude oil release is large, the daily release volume is far from meeting the demand, leading to a rapid spread of crude oil shortage [52] - Refineries are forced to reduce their loads, resulting in a decline in the production of aromatics, olefins, PX, PTA, bottle chips, pure benzene, and styrene. The PX - PTA - bottle chip industrial chain is severely affected [52][56][58][61][64] - The US 2 - year Treasury bond is continuously falling, the US dollar index is about to break through 100, private credit risks are spreading to the banking system, and the collapse of the Nasdaq is approaching [52] - The oil price may remain at a high level, and international capital is accelerating its withdrawal from the US. If the Nasdaq falls, the market may sell all assets [69]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the banking industry in China, focusing on interest rate risk management and liquidity risk. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Risk Assessment** The assumption of a 225 basis point (BP) parallel shock for the Renminbi Delta EVE is considered excessively high, suggesting a revision to 125-150 BP to better reflect long-term bank asset allocation [1][2][4]. 2. **Nature of Interest Rate Risk** Interest rate risk is fundamentally a liquidity risk, as demonstrated by the Silicon Valley Bank case, where the critical issue was a run on liabilities rather than asset depreciation [1][7]. 3. **Bank Asset Duration** The passive lengthening of bank asset duration is attributed to changes in social financing structure, with a significant increase in government bonds, which have an average duration of 6-10 years [1][13]. 4. **Risk Comparison Between Banks** Small and medium-sized banks exhibit lower interest rate and liquidity risks compared to large banks due to their reliance on medium to long-term deposits, enhancing liability stability despite higher costs [1][10]. 5. **Delta EVE Indicator Sensitivity** The Delta EVE indicator is crucial for interest rate risk management but is highly sensitive to interest rate assumptions. Overly stringent assumptions can unnecessarily constrain long-term bond allocations [3][5]. 6. **Historical Context of Interest Rate Shocks** Historical data shows that the maximum shock for the Renminbi has decreased over time, indicating that using the 2008 extreme as a benchmark may exaggerate current and future interest rate risk [4][6]. 7. **Market Perception of Risk Management** The market's inclination towards stricter interest rate risk management is influenced by the Silicon Valley Bank incident, which highlighted that liquidity crises can be more damaging than interest rate fluctuations [7][9]. 8. **Federal Reserve's Response** The introduction of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) by the Federal Reserve post-Silicon Valley Bank incident aimed to provide liquidity support to banks facing runs, preventing forced asset sales [8][9]. 9. **Japanese Banking Experience** Japan's banking system has shown resilience to rising interest rates due to stable deposits and a gradual increase in rates, contrasting with the U.S. experience [9][10]. 10. **Regulatory Framework and Risk Management** The regulatory environment in China is stricter compared to other countries, emphasizing the need for banks to align their risk profiles with their risk management capabilities [12][17]. 11. **Future Pathways for Risk Management** Suggestions include optimizing interest rate risk regulations and enhancing liquidity support mechanisms to help banks navigate potential extreme interest rate shocks [15][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Impact of Government Debt on Bank Risk** The increasing proportion of government bonds in banks' asset portfolios is leading to a passive increase in duration risk, which is difficult to mitigate due to the binding nature of project financing [13][14]. 2. **Potential for Future Rate Shocks** The likelihood of a repeat of the 2008 interest rate shock is deemed low, with current trends indicating a long-term downward trajectory for interest rates [6][10]. 3. **Liquidity Support Mechanisms** The effectiveness of liquidity support tools like BTFP in preventing banks from realizing losses during periods of stress is highlighted, emphasizing the importance of having adequate liquidity during crises [17][18]. 4. **Need for Comprehensive Frameworks** A call for a comprehensive redesign of monetary policy frameworks to better accommodate the current economic environment and support government debt issuance while managing interest rate risks effectively [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the price of natural rubber declined. Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts, the short - term strength of crude oil has driven the chemical products to perform strongly. However, the inflation and the adverse impact on the economy caused by geopolitical conflicts are expected to increase, and the liquidity risk has risen. Fundamentally, natural rubber is in the seasonal low - production stage. Domestic production areas are in the off - season, and Thai production areas are also gradually entering the off - season. The low - production season generally lasts until May. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, continues to accumulate, and the short - term supply elasticity weakens, while the price of raw rubber is relatively firm. On the demand side, there is support for the resumption of post - holiday production. The start - up of all - steel tires is expected to be stable. In the short term, the market is still affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - **Price and Fluctuation**: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16555, 13370, and 14110 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the changes were - 185, - 165, and 230, with percentage changes of - 1.11%, - 1.22%, and 1.66% respectively. The spreads between RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 3185, 2445, and - 740 respectively, with changes of - 20, - 415, and - 395 compared to the previous values [2]. - **Volume and Position**: The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 332143, 75669, and 174560 respectively. The positions were 147781, 64528, and 57079 respectively, with changes of - 4810, 923, and 3909 [2]. - **Basis**: The current basis of RU, the difference between mixed rubber and RU, and the difference between smoked sheet and RU were - 105, - 935, and 2845 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 140, - 1055, and 2660 [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current prices of whole - milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 16350, 16450, and 16400 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 0.91%, - 0.90%, and - 0.41% compared to the previous values. The prices of smoked sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai were 19400 yuan/ton, with no change. The prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15620 and 16300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 0.61% and 0.31% [2]. - **Downstream Spot**: The current prices of Thai smoked sheet, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex were 70.89, 58.53, and 69 Thai baht/kg respectively. The changes compared to the previous values were 0.01%, 0.00%, and 0.00% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On March 4, platinum and palladium prices continued to be weak. The PT2606 contract closed down 4.55% to 563.5 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed down 2.78% to 433.8 yuan/gram. Geopolitical conflicts and energy price increases reignited inflation concerns and economic recession fears, leading to a global stock market slump, increased liquidity risk, and reduced the Fed's rate - cut expectations, which suppressed precious metal prices. The global platinum market is expected to have a supply shortage of 240,000 ounces in 2026, providing support for platinum prices, but Trump's new tariff policy may ease the supply shortage. In the short - term, platinum is expected to oscillate within a range, and investors can wait to buy at low prices after market sentiment stabilizes [5] Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Fluctuation - The domestic futures closing price of platinum (active contract) was 563.5 yuan/gram, down 1.19% from the previous value; the palladium futures closing price (active contract) was 433.8 yuan/gram, down 0.02% from the previous value. The spot price of platinum (99.95%) was 600 yuan/gram, and the spot price of palladium (99.95%) was 400 yuan/gram. The platinum basis (spot - futures) was 32.7 yuan/gram, down 34.25%; the palladium basis was 16.7 yuan/gram, down 20.85% [5] - The London spot platinum price was 2146 dollars/ounce, down 2.52%; the London spot palladium price was 1693.614 dollars/ounce, down 2.46%. NYMEX platinum was 2150.4 dollars/ounce, down 2.40%; NYMEX palladium was 1712.5 dollars/ounce, down 2.00% [5] - The US dollar/renminbi central parity rate was 6.9088, up 0.05%. The spread between the domestic platinum price and the London platinum price was 24.58 yuan/gram, up 38.64%; the spread between the domestic platinum price and the NYMEX platinum price was 23.47 yuan/gram, up 35.67%. The spread between the domestic palladium price and the London palladium price was - 1.94 yuan/gram, down 537.62%; the spread between the domestic palladium price and the NYMEX palladium price was 3.74 yuan/gram, down 179.24% [5] - The ratio of domestic platinum to palladium was 1.3144, down 0.0154; the ratio of London spot platinum to palladium was 1.2671, down 0.0007 [5] Inventory and Position - NYMEX platinum inventory was 202,181 troy ounces, unchanged from the previous value; NYMEX palladium inventory was 587,159 troy ounces, unchanged from the previous value [5] - NYMEX total platinum position increased 4.42% to 72,351; NYMEX non - commercial net long platinum position decreased 7.23% to 12,347. NYMEX total palladium position decreased 2.18% to 68,291; NYMEX non - commercial net long palladium position increased 34.96% to 664 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the natural rubber market declined. Amid geopolitical conflicts, the short - term strength of crude oil has driven the chemical products to perform strongly. However, the inflation and negative economic impact caused by geopolitical conflicts have increased the expected risks of liquidity. The natural rubber is in a seasonal low - production phase, with domestic and Thai production areas in a state of suspension. The low - production season usually lasts until May. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao, China, has been continuously accumulating, and the short - term supply flexibility has weakened, while the raw rubber prices remain relatively firm. After the Spring Festival, the demand side is expected to recover, with the all - steel tire production expected to be stable. In the short term, the market is still affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16740, 13535, and 13880 respectively, with changes of - 95 (- 0.56%), - 55 (- 0.40%), and 340 (2.51%) compared to the day before. The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 3205, 2860, and - 345 respectively, with changes of - 40, - 435, and - 395 [2] - **Volume and Position**: The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 370025, 81471, and 128841 respectively. The positions were 152591, 63605, and 53170 respectively, with position changes of - 7755, 2955, and 5112 [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current prices of whole - milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 16500, 16600, and 16500 respectively, with a decline of 0.60%. The prices of smoked sheets in Shandong and Shanghai were 19400, with no change. The prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15685 and 16250 respectively, with declines of - 1.72% and - 0.76% [2] - **Downstream Spot**: The current prices of Thai smoked sheets, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex were 70.88, 58.53, and 69 respectively, with changes of - 1.95%, 1.14%, and 0.29% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions are the main drivers of price fluctuations in various commodities. The resolution of military confrontations and the resumption of strait navigation are crucial for the market to return to normal [2]. - The performance of different commodities is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Investors should pay close attention to geopolitical developments and policy changes [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Brent oil prices rose sharply, and SC crude oil hit the daily limit. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and supply disruptions are the main reasons. Geopolitical risk premiums will remain high until the military confrontation subsides and strait navigation resumes [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Multiple contracts of FU and LU followed the SC crude oil main contract and rose to the daily limit. The core logic has shifted to the geopolitical conflict. Supply - tightening expectations are strong, and future trends depend on the war situation and the duration of strait blockage [22]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by the Middle - East situation, asphalt prices strengthened, but the increase was milder than that of crude oil and fuel oil. It is in a pattern of "strong cost, weak supply - demand", and will mainly follow cost fluctuations with limited upside space [23]. - **Urea**: The futures market was narrowly volatile, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. In the context of the spring plowing season, the inventory of production enterprises may decline, but the price increase may be limited. The market is expected to oscillate within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The night - session price rose and then fell. Geopolitical conflicts may lead to a reduction in supply. In the short term, the market may experience pulse - like increases, and in the medium term, attention should be paid to the evolution of geopolitical risks [25]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fell significantly. The short - term volatility increased, and the subsequent trend is determined by the war situation. Caution is advised when participating [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices declined. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increased economic growth risks and dragged down copper prices. High inventories and uncertainties may cause copper prices to test the MA60 moving - average support [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum prices rose. The market is concerned about supply contractions in the Middle East. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and geopolitical guidance should be continuously monitored [5]. - **Zinc**: The dollar rebounded, and there were concerns about liquidity. The zinc market lacked upward momentum. High zinc prices suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the inventory increased significantly. The overall rebound of Shanghai zinc is under pressure [8]. - **Lead**: The lead market is in an oversupply situation, with weak external and strong internal prices. There is a certain expectation of inventory reduction, but the actual inventory - reduction rhythm is not smooth. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated and declined. The market was actively traded. The nickel market lacks independent driving forces and follows external sentiment, gradually weakening [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices continued to decline. The short - term price may turn to oscillation. Attention should be paid to the MA60 moving - average. Geopolitical conflicts may affect the semiconductor output in East Asia [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures market was weak. The supply increased, and the demand improved marginally. The market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in market risk preferences [16]. - **Coke**: The intraday price oscillated strongly. The first round of price cuts may be implemented. The inventory decreased slightly. The market has expectations for "anti - involution" policies, and the price may be driven up by coking coal [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The intraday price oscillated strongly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts. The total inventory decreased significantly, and there is a certain expectation of inventory replenishment. The price has improved, and geopolitical news should be monitored [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The intraday price oscillated upward. Geopolitical conflicts are beneficial to the cost of manganese silicon. The demand is slowly increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The intraday price oscillated upward. The demand has certain resilience, and the inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to geopolitical news [20]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: International events have increased the cost of propylene. The market sentiment has improved, and the inventory reduction has accelerated. However, the high inventory in the polyolefin market poses a supply pressure, and the divergence between futures and spot prices may increase [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Geopolitical conflicts have made PVC prices oscillate strongly. The industry inventory is high, and the demand is in the recovery stage. Caustic soda supply is high, and the price is expected to operate in the bottom range [29]. - **PX & PTA**: The Middle - East situation affects PX and PTA through oil prices and supply concerns. The current PTA processing margin is under pressure, and the price and spread are affected by the Middle - East situation [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a possibility of phased improvement in supply - demand in the second quarter. The Iranian situation has multiple positive effects on ethylene glycol, and the development of the situation should be monitored [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans oscillated strongly at a high level. Brazilian soybean production is expected to decrease. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal has increased. The market shows an oil - strong - powder - weak state. Rapeseed meal has stabilized [35]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Domestic vegetable oils are generally strong, following energy prices. The short - term market is driven by the uncertainty of Middle - East energy. The supply - demand pattern of agricultural products is not tight, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation [36]. - **Corn**: The prices at northern ports increased, and the inventory at north - south ports is at a low level. US corn oscillated strongly at the bottom. Dalian corn futures are expected to be strong in the short term [38]. - **Hogs**: The main contract of hogs continued to decline. The spot price fell, and the central government plans to purchase frozen pork. The pig price is at a historical low, and the inventory pressure needs to be relieved. Long positions in far - month contracts can be considered [39]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures market adjusted weakly. The spot price adjusted weakly after the Spring Festival. The long - term egg inventory is in a downward trend, and long positions can be considered at low levels [40]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillated at a high level. The short - term demand feedback is average. The supply of cotton in the future is expected to be tight. Attention should be paid to the demand performance in the "Golden March and Silver April" period [41]. - **Sugar**: International sugar production in India and Thailand shows different trends. In China, the market focuses on the expected difference in production. The short - term sugar price faces certain pressure [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price rose significantly. The post - festival demand in the northwest is good, but the quality and inventory in Shandong are problematic. The de - stocking speed may be affected [43]. - **Timber**: The futures price oscillated. The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the price. Temporarily observe the market [44]. - **Pulp**: The domestic pulp port inventory is at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, but the demand is average. The mid - term trend is expected to oscillate within a range [45]. Others - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Shipping companies are actively raising prices. The short - term futures market may remain strong. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the Middle - East supply chain disruption and its spill - over effects [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares fell significantly, and overseas stock markets also declined. Geopolitical factors have increased market inflation concerns and raised the threshold for the Fed to cut interest rates. The RMB exchange rate is relatively strong, and the A - share market is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the rotation of market styles [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed differentiation. The market may choose a direction after the policy tone of the Two Sessions. The strategy is to oscillate on a single side. The strategy of flattening the yield curve by shorting T and longing TL has a certain cost - performance ratio [47].